Micro 752: Mafia for the Vengeful Redux (Game Over)

[BTD6_maker]

Deadline has passed and Nexus has been lynched.

Everyone likely thought it was majority until I checked. If it were a majority, a No Lynch would have ended the game. Now, The Jester voted me instead of Nexus. The Jester clearly scumread Nexus over me, though. In this case, if I were in The Jester's position (and assumed majority lynch) I think that hammering would have been the right move because it was so close to deadline that there was not much disadvantage to doing so. Hammering would not have been game-throwing.

In most games, you offer intent to give a last chance for the player to claim. Here, claims are unnecessary and (ignoring the fact that it wa plurality) we needed a hammer. Now, why would The Jester vote me? If they are scum, they can try to use the deadline to rush a wagon on me, hoping that I will kill Nexus (this would point towards Nexus being Town). Then again, they could just hammer Nexus, but they may have thought that Nexus would possibly kill them and that it would have been safer to lynch me. If they are Town, they clearly thought that they should not hammer without consensus. It's a bad idea, but it's understandable that Town would think that.

[Errantparabola]

WELP.
I really chunked it, didn't I?
(In my defense I assumed it was gonna be PST deadline because I forgot Equinox

moved

)

[The_Jester]

....You had a fucking timer counting down. This is such an awful excuse...

[BTD6_maker]

Ultimately, there was never going to be a No Lynch anyway.

[Equinox]

Vote Count 1.05

Nexus (2) - Fishythefish, BTD6_maker
BTD6_maker (2) - The_Jester, Nexus

Not Voting (2) - The_Jester, Errantparabola

With 5 alive, it will take 3 to reach majority.

The deadline is on Thursday, November 9, 2017, at 8:30 AM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2017-11-09 08:30:00).

---

The gathered townsfolk were torn between two people they thought suspicious. However, as they had dithered for much of the day, they did not have much time to deliberate further. Eventually, they went for their first choice: Nexus.

Nexus,

town vanilla

, was lynched on Day 1!

Please hold.

[Equinox]

As Nexus struggled, he reached into his pocket and pulled out -- to the gathered mob's surprise -- a handgun. He grinned and fired.

BTD6_maker,

mafia goon

, has died on Day 1!

Day 2 begins now.

Vote Count 2.00

Not Voting (3) - Errantparabola, Fishythefish, The_Jester

With 3 alive, it will take 2 to reach majority.

The deadline is on Thursday, November 23, 2017, at 9:30 PM EST (UTC-5), which is in (expired on 2017-11-23 21:30:00).

[Fishythefish]

Good job Nexus.

Jester: what made you switch from Nexus to BTD?

I wonder whether EP really did miss the deadline, since doing so would be super-useful for EP scum here. I tend to think yes - it's not the sort of thing that scum tend to lie about.

[The_Jester]

Nexus sounded genuine in his last posts and he seemed to care- scum would just give it up I think but he kept checking in at work. His outrage at me didn't seem fake. I'm a tone reader mostly.
About EP I'm not saying he's necessarily lying but I've done this as scum too- wait until it all sorts itself out, especially that it seemed like scum were likely to score 2 townie deaths. I'm pretty sure you're town so I coud just vote him right now but I'm gonna re-read just in case. But I don't think it'll change my decision.

[Fishythefish]

Jester: as I see it, EP's lurking out the lynch has some scum motivation - avoiding being involved probably did decrease the odds of Nexus shooting EP. But not by

that

much; from Nexus's posting, you seemed the obvious target.

[Fishythefish]

There's one post that makes me think it may be EP and BTD but not sure I wanna bank on that.
Anyway, there's 2 votes on Nexus and I can't change the lynch alone. Anybody?

Just spotted this: what was that post?

[Errantparabola]

fishy on the btd wagon is theoretically obvscum timing (going on, moderate pressure on btd, then reducing pressure and focusing elsewhere) but there's a lot of unnecessary effort that I rarely ever see put in there for scum theater on fishy's part, so that's the thing that's giving me main pause

the thing that gives me pause about jester is he's pushing pretty hard against nexus at the end there-- his transition near the end after the whole nexus thing is basically opposite of fishy

I wonder whether EP really did miss the deadline, since doing so would be super-useful for EP scum here. I tend to think yes - it's not the sort of thing that scum tend to lie about.

yes, I genuinely missed the deadline-- I got 3 hours of sleep and had 3 midterms this week, was all around bone-tired, and banked on being able to wake up in time.
another thing that gives me doubts about fishy as scum is his strat here. would be very easy for scum-him to get jester to vote me (practically 0 effort play) so this would be unnecessary for him here

but of course, scum rarely just does what is necessary.
but then again, "BTD flip gives us jack shit"
but then again, does scum even consider full bussing on D1? does jester have the ballsacks for that? that's like the one thing I'm regarding here as truly unlikely

I'm about 60-40 in favor of fishy vote here

[Fishythefish]

After a reread, I'm pretty certain I'll be voting EP unless something quite new comes up.

Overall impressions:
- Jester really reads like he's thinking hard and trying to work the game out, and did things like push for people to do stuff rather than coast to deadline.
- EP's play is fine, but there's nothing in there that jumps out as town.

Connections to BTD:
- Jester went after BTD a little yesterday (see post 63 and after), and voted him at deadline without changing his chances of being lynched much.
- EP basically never mentioned BTD.
- BTD gave "very weak townreads" on both, and didn't do anything particularly interesting. I can see the early chat about theory and pairing methods being a bit of early distancing from EP, and the post townreading EP looks kinda contrived.
So, neither is an unlikely buddy, with EP perhaps a bit more likely.

fishy on the btd wagon is theoretically obvscum timing (going on, moderate pressure on btd, then reducing pressure and focusing elsewhere) but there's a lot of unnecessary effort that I rarely ever see put in there for scum theater on fishy's part, so that's the thing that's giving me main pause

I'm happy to explain my play if there are any questions. As to whether it was likely from scum - I have no special knowledge there, but I'd rather think scumFishy who people are reading as town would be more likely to go through with a bus.

[Errantparabola]

Alright then— just end it.

[Fishythefish]

There's no rush - I'll wait to hear Jester's thoughts.

[The_Jester]

There's one post that makes me think it may be EP and BTD but not sure I wanna bank on that.
Anyway, there's 2 votes on Nexus and I can't change the lynch alone. Anybody?

Just spotted this: what was that post?

1) lynch cuphead
if town, cuphead shoot fish

2) lynch nexus
if town, nexus shoot cuphead

thoughts

He didn't include BTD. Nice way of getting rid of 2 townies in both scenarios.

1) lynch cuphead
if town, cuphead shoot fish

2) lynch nexus
if town, nexus shoot cuphead

thoughts

Are you trying something similar to the Mastermind of Sin pairing method?

Backseat coaching? Also defends EP later on:

While I think it overall benefits scum, I did say that each individual Town has an interest in directing shots towards their scumreads so it is good for Town.

MoS was often lynched for pairing but I don't think EP is scummy. If EP had been MoS and made pairings I would have classed that as scummy.

Then EP wants to lynch Nexus for... what exactly? Seems like he thought it's gonna be either Nexus or him.

VOTE: nexus

actually yeah
when you think about it-- unless we've reached a consensus, we can all agree as town to not hammer anyone until that point. right? that's clearly benefit for town.

then we can also work under the maxim that anyone that quickhammers town without a consensus is scum and they can get shot. so no one will quickhammer.

so getting votes out is a good way to progress the game

^Stating the obvious for towncred

BTD's #61 seems like a perfect case of distancing. Creating space while not condemning the player at the same time.

Plus:

Right now, I do not have clear scumreads, only very weak Townreads. This could suggest that Fishythefish and Nexus are weak scumreads

Etc etc now that I'm sure EP's scum I could prolly find something condemning in everything he's said so it's kinda pointless.

does scum even consider full bussing on D1? does jester have the ballsacks for that? that's like the one thing I'm regarding here as truly unlikely

I do actually. Done that on my alt. I did not end well What about Fish bussing? He's been pushing BTD from the very beginning.

Fish's play this game is very reminiscent of one game we played together where he replaced in and obvtowned the fuck outta it. He's been active and transparent, just like here. I'm not really seeing anything condemning.

[The_Jester]

Fish what did you think of Nexus' wall on me? You voted him right after so didn't you think he had valid points?

[The_Jester]

Alright then— just end it.

Is this a scumclaim? If you're town, step it up.

[Errantparabola]

Oh, come on. This isn’t some 70 page game where I can write pages and pages in hopes that one of you will have the good graces to vote the other person. It’s a 6 page game, I’ve said everything I think is useful. If you want me to clarify anything that’s fine, but I’m not going to pad my posts with fake bullshit or reach for tenuous arguments to “step it up.”

Just end it.

[The_Jester]

So basically you want to sell me on the Fish lynch solely based on the fact his BTD vote had "scum timing"? Like come on.

there's a lot of unnecessary effort that I rarely ever see put in there for scum theater on fishy's part

At least gimme an example of this

[Fishythefish]

Fish what did you think of Nexus' wall on me? You voted him right after so didn't you think he had valid points?

I thought it was clearly pretty constructed; there's a lot in there that just isn't any kind of scumtell, and only about one point I agreed with. That wasn't hugely AI at that stage in the day - desperate townies don't look all that different from scum - but I was very unpersuaded.

VOTE: Errantparabola

I can't see myself changing my mind on this one.

[Errantparabola]

At least gimme an example of this

94.

[The_Jester]

Eh I don't see it. It crossed my mind Fish's ISO of BTD was pretty thorough and maybe BTD himself linked him the games that suited the situation but Occam's saying I'm a fool and Fish's just meticulous.

[Fishythefish]

I'm pretty sure I used BTD's last 4 completed games (maybe skipping a longer one to focus on reading more).

[The_Jester]

Ok fuck it, if Fish's scum then he's a mafia god and deserves to win.

VOTE: EP

[Errantparabola]

So was it Fishy?