Micro 792: Three in One (Day 6)

[CheekyTeeky]

Try not to understand everything I do. It makes it easier for both of us. Just try to see my general intent. There now I've set the bar for my scum meta shift too high probably.

[Mathdino]

Incoming case on NSG, which is going to be mixed with "NSG shouldn't be scumreading me", so uh
yeah you guys are gonna be pretty annoyed by this

[Errantparabola]

Votecount 1.6

Gamma Emerald

(2): Not_Mafia, Something_Smart

Mathdino

(2): Bambietta Basterbine, northsidegal

Not_Mafia

(2): Gamma Emerald, CheekyTeeky

CheekyTeeky

(1): RedFlavor

northsidegal

(1): Mathdino

Not Voting

(1): PenguinPower

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a lynch.

Deadline in (expired on 2018-03-26 09:00:00)

[Mathdino]

Spoiler: From Tit for Tat (NSG town)

northsidegal is actually scum.

DOUBLY so if Creature turns out to be town through the day. Creature's read was right on point. I'll give NSG a couple chances to explain to me why exactly I think that.
And yes, this is a test, the response may very well affect this read. Please do actually explain why I, personally, Mathdino, am scumreading you. I wanna see if you're seeing the same things.

oh, so this is where it started. my guess is that it's mainly my activity, but if i had to guess i'd also say it's probably because of my questioning / vote of jmo.

I'm not like 100% confident enough in this read to speedlynch her without a reaction.

That was half a lie; she didn't really explain how to read her, but we went over our respective scumgames and she more demonstrated that I COULD read her. Honestly I think we've just seen each other too much at this point. I don't expect her to be the easiest sort ever for others but I'd like to think I can gutread her, even if she's only posted however few times.

Math, i'm going to say this right now, and it applies to anyone who thinks they can metaread me off of the first few posts in a game, now or in the future – you're only going to get burned. Keep going down this path and one of these days i'll have a good start as scum and will get false cleared or one of these days i'll get lynched as town early for just having a weak rvs. It's already happened to RC before. I honestly don't really enjoy the prevailing conception about my meta so far (i think it's just a function of me rolling town so much more often than scum) and so i'm waiting for the game where it's disproven – i'd rather that not be this game where my town flip is what disproves it.

@NSG: Benefit of the doubt here. Why did you not seem to give a shit that I was locktowning you early on?

because i believe that

you

believe that you can read me based off of three posts. yeah, of course i saw the similarity to anything upick – the thing is, i expect you to do the same thing as town. so... it didn't really factor into my read of you at all.

like, it's really as simple as that i think

you

think you can read me from three posts. i know that RC thinks that. so it wasn't really anything out of the ordinary? i also don't really feel like my play was anything out of the ordinary like it was in anything upick where there was a disconnect between

my own meta read of myself

based off of a few posts and what you were saying.

tl;dr: I fake-locktowned NSG to see her reaction. She didn't react all paranoid-like, so I called her as scum. She still didn't react all paranoid like, noting that

she believes that I think I can read her very easily

.

Spoiler: From Be Yourself (NSG-SK)

I sincerely doubt the ability of

anyone

to accurately read me within my first

ten

posts in a game. I'm not creature – yes, I can obvtown as town – the fact that I apparently haven't done so by page 8 is supposed to be a scumclaim? I also get the feeling that people are just equating my post length with my towniness rather than anything i'm actually saying. I can write walls as scum – it doesn't mean anything and i've done it before.

math, you're making the same mistake that katy made with regard to my "paranoid theory" comment – assuming that i was making that point as anything more than a simple observation / point of discussion. if i was "jumping on you" for that, i would've moved my vote to you (same with the postie/rt comment). i believed that it was entirely reasonable that you actually were regretting joining for whatever reason unrelated to your alignment, and given that i would have no way of proving what your disappointment was caused by, it would've been an entirely pointless avenue of discussion to persue.

No but that's the thing. It was a bad point, and given the pace of the game and the players already willing to go after me, it was fanning a flame that shouldn't have been fanned in the first place.

I would've understood if you, for example, pressure-wagoned me (like Cheeky), or pressure-interrogated me for more info. But you floated an idea out there in an already unstable gamestate that would only add more noise.

I'm not sure what you're scumreading me for here. Are you trying to say that me giving a short observation on a topic that someone else had brought up brings you materially closer to a lynch than choosing to hop on the wagon would? Like, i have no idea what "floating an idea out there in an unstable gamestate that only adds more noise" is actually supposed to mean, nor how it would make me scum.
[snip]
Math, how confident would you say you are in your read on me as of right now?

i resent being called a lowposter.

and also being voted because people are getting bored.

one second.

What's your read on Dino?

conflicted – i'm not sure how much he actually believes that the "prefers town" comment makes me scum and i know that he doesn't put a lot of weight into early game reads so it seems kind of strange, but as scum i would've expected him to try to pocket me more by defending me rather than trying to use knowledge of my meta to get a lynch on me.

i still scumread mathdino for his push on me and the entire weak justification for that. feels like he's trying to use a claimed knowledge of my meta as a tool

against

me moreso than to try to read me, if that makes sense – he's never once really tried to engage with me or to try to figure out

why

i'm not posting so much and if he really knows my meta and he's being genuine then he should know that inactivity doesn't always make me scum.

From here, we get the inconsistent OMGUS reaction, with (notably) the deflection with "you're just trying to activity-tell me", when that wasn't my case in the first place.

Near the end, she notes that she thinks scum-me would try to pocket her rather than try to use meta against her, but much later on pivots to "Math is scum for trying to use meta against me". I don't know how much she believes either of these statements, but if she legit thought my scum-strategy would just be to pocket her as town, that's clearly against what I'm doing here.

Anyway, read the spoilers, the reactions are different. Yadda yadda scum by meta. That shit is boring. The kicker is here:

i don't really like the idea of policy lynching just to set up for future games – it feels kind of weird, like playing towards a future wincondition or something. not even a future wincondition, but maybe even just sacrificing parts of this game to have a potentially better next game. i'd really rather just lynch scumreads.

doesn't it also assume that whoever we're policy lynching is on the losing team for this game?

She shows understanding of how I view this game. She also knows that when there are multiple win conditions, I'm not the type of person to stick to just one. She doesn't like it, but she understands it.

I've been fooled by scum-N_M, scum-CT, and scum-Bambi, and I've misread town-Gamma. And since she read Polygamist, she'd also know I've been fooled by scum-RedFlavor. I have not played with Penguin or Smart as town.

The ONLY player in this game I have a consistent track record of reading is NSG. She also knows that I think I can read her very easily. She also knows that I think she's an easily readable player; she demonstrated that in Be Yourself.

So suppose she's town and I'm scum. I obviously have to assume I'm going to win (because if I lose I'm out of the next game). And I'm more likely to roll town next game than scum.

So why would I want to remove the one player in this playerlist that I think I can read 100% of the time, when doing so would be blatantly against future wincons?

She clearly believes I'm actually trying to get her lynched, so from her POV, this can't be a case of "Math is just softpushing me for towncred". And she also understands why I wanted to policy lynch Bambi and N_M (so I wouldn't have to deal with them next game when I 5/7 roll town).

Scumreading me for pushing her is not only indicative of scum-NSG, it's also ridiculous given that she's framed me as someone who thinks I can read her 100% of the time (to the point where I signed up to spectate her Newbie Games during Tit for Tat just to be better at reading her).

The response to this is "something something WIFOM". Whatever. She's right that I play politically, and she's goddamn right I will play to future wincons. NSG is the last person I would want to mislynch, and the fact that I'm voting her right now is indicative of how sure I am on this. I would just add on:
- NSG knows she can obvtown as town, and knows that I face burden of proficiency in reading her correctly. Thinking I'm scum opportunistically jumping on her when in reality that would be suicide, is bad, and consistent with her reaction in Be Yourself.
- NSG three times framed my case as "you're just activity telling me" when that was explicitly not the case.

tl;dr: She OMGUS'd in a situation where it made no sense for scum-Mathdino to be trying to remove her from future games. NSG is scum.

[Mathdino]

I will accept lynching {N_M, Bambi} today on the condition that NSG MUST be lynched on D2 or D3.

I'll need to see a case on Gamma; the biggest point against him right now is him being active everywhere else, but that's not much.

Cheeky is a bad D1 lynch.

Smart and Red are town.

Penguin I'm not nearly annoyed enough by right now to lynch him, especially not before doing a metadive (tm).

[Mathdino]

oh yeah and NSG did the thing scum do where they throw out good ideas on "principle" rather than actually giving reasons (like Smart) or having a semi-legitimate reason to be avoiding the discussion altogether (like the newbie listmod, who was likely annoyed at me and may possibly have been PM'd by a very angry Derpy Hooves over my trying to "break" Newbie 1856)

To clarify, this has not been a self-defence in general, this is a "NSG in particular, believing that I think I can read her 100% off 8 posts, should not be scumreading me". No one else here has framed me as someone who thinks I can read NSG 100% of the time (except CT I guess but her read on me is more nuanced and has less history).

In fact, I feel like Not_Mafia has actually been avoiding me and SHOULD be scumreading/intent-to-hammer-ing me, and I think that's actually scum-indicative for him, given that he knows starting up that ageless 1v1 again is likely to actually get him policy lynched.

[Not_Mafia]

I'm learning and evolving

[Mathdino]

good old miltank

:miltank:

[Mathdino]

hey N_M can you explain your redflavor vote in a witty one-liner

Lucky 13

and can you also explain this joke like you're JokeExplainBot
cuz i don't get it

[Not_Mafia]

I don't know if RedFlavour is scum, he has a naturally scummy disposition and I haven't played with enough yet to distinguish him being town or scum

And Penguin previously prevaricated pertaining to my posts, saying I had 12 when I had 11, I thought it was my 13th posts but I had been duped

[Mathdino]

Gamma just taking potshots is weird, seems more about discrediting than gamesolving

and the vote on gamma is because of this, yeah?

[Not_Mafia]

Yup, nothing's changed on that front

[Mathdino]

sounds good

scumteam is NSG + {N_M, CT, Gamma}

[Not_Mafia]

I agree, except for the NM part and probably the Cheeky part

[CheekyTeeky]

See Math, now you've left me Iittle choice but to lynch NSG to determine your alignment, which is frustrating because I'd rather have both of you as town on my side.

Another thing I find odd that you haven't considered in regards to NSG's alignment is your tendency to scum read PRs. Why isn't her being a potential PR factored into your discussion when you're acutely aware of this flaw in your town meta?

[CheekyTeeky]

In all honesty I do find NSG's lack of frustration at Math constantly tunneling her, over a few games, rather strange. Like yes, she's disagreeing, but I think she either is the most patient person on MS or she finds it hard to produce convincing emotion as scum.

If it were me I would've blown up at Math by now.

Math is trying too hard AI for you?

[CheekyTeeky]

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to achieve a lynch.
Deadline in 4 days, 8 hours, 9 minutes

Guys don't forget we only have a week in this set-up with 4ish days remaining.

Carpe diem!

[Mathdino]

See Math, now you've left me Iittle choice but to lynch NSG to determine your alignment, which is frustrating because I'd rather have both of you as town on my side.

Another thing I find odd that you haven't considered in regards to NSG's alignment is your tendency to scum read PRs. Why isn't her being a potential PR factored into your discussion when you're acutely aware of this flaw in your town meta?

I don't publicly PR hunt.

But yeah, this has crossed my mind. NSG claims that she would've played that game exactly the same as VT (although she claimed it only in this thread rather than in that thread or over sitechat when we talked about it, so idk if I believe that (she might be trying to shake my confidence)).

I reviewed Tit for Tat after it ended for the flaw in my theory of reading NSG, and it occurred to me that I wasn't really even trying to read her early game -- instead I was so gung ho about the reaction test that I based my read around that. I think had I just played normally I would've ended up townreading her early game.

I guess what I'm saying is I just think I'm better now? Like, obviously if she claims PR, then fuck me, my legacy of continually scumreading PRs lives on. And hopefully if she IS a PR she's a tracker
I can't bank on all my scumreads being potential PRs though. That tendency doesn't solely apply to her. It applied to literally every PR in Tit for Tat (sorry Gamma/Luca).

In all honesty I do find NSG's lack of frustration at Math constantly tunneling her, over a few games, rather strange. Like yes, she's disagreeing, but I think she either is the most patient person on MS or she finds it hard to produce convincing emotion as scum.

If it were me I would've blown up at Math by now.

Math is trying too hard AI for you?

ehhh
my history of games with NSG:
- Marked for Death: I locktowned her on page 2 and she townread me enough to get me shot. Such innocent times.
- Creature's 9:12: Scum-me called her RC hydra scum for not posting (while letting Smooth Criminal RC post), then she posted like twice, townread me, and I locktowned her.
(at this point we have a discussion about each other's scum-meta gearing up for Team Mafia and I familiarise myself with her meta; she claimed she was easy to read but that was months ago)
- Anything uPick: Scum-me locktowned her preemptively, she got paranoid, we didn't really interact much but I basically hard-defended her until lategame, where I tried to activity-scumtell her. She didn't really seem to care; just came back and did her thing.
- Be Yourself: You remember this, but for the benefit of others, I hardscumread SK-her off like 3 posts and tunneled her to a lynch. She reacted badly.
- Tit for Tat: I got caught up in Fancy Play Syndrome, scumread her, she disappeared from the game while posting in other (town) games, I got pissy. She came back on D2 being like "Hey what's up?", I was like "Where the fuck were you?" and she was like "idk". At some point I realised she was either vig or scum and let it go.

- This game.

I guess what I'm saying is she seems to react totally patiently as town and reacts with the most frustration when she's scum, across a sample size of one game.

I think she played scum once against a town RC who figured out she was scum, so that might be comparable, given that she's compared me and RC in the past? That said, she also reacted super badly to town RC tunneling town NSG somewhere else IIRC, so idk about that.

[Mathdino]

Math is trying too hard AI for you?

Something something it's the way I do it?

I don't really want to self-meta how AI my effort levels are because that forces me into a certain effort-level in the future to get townreads. You can go read my ISOs in my scumgames to see what the most efforty posts are I guess.

Anything uPick I was pretty burned out of the entire thing, but that was also because we lost 3 scum in a row.
Jester Nightless was nightless so I had to get a lynch on literally every player other than Bambi.
and Creature's micro was full of townies who did absolutely nothing.

[Mathdino]

See Math, now you've left me Iittle choice but to lynch NSG to determine your alignment, which is frustrating because I'd rather have both of you as town on my side.

I don't think this really works the way you think it does?

NSG scumflip doesn't clear me I don't think.

NSG townflip in my opinion does clear me because of the logic I used above. You'd have to believe the following:
- Scum-me plays to future wincons (not a stretch, I don't see why you wouldn't believe this)
- I believe my future wincon will be town (I also openly prefer town)
- Town-me believes the game is easier to win when NSG is in the game because she's easy to read (also not a stretch, I literally have a spreadsheet with data on NSG's meta)
- Town-me believes there isn't anyone else in the playerlist that I would find easier to read, thus making NSG literally the worst possible D1/D2 mislynch for scum-me right now
And I guess you'd also have to mix that with
- This isn't some elaborate WIFOM gambit to sacrifice NSG (and lower my future chances of winning), clear myself as town, and win this game. But me planning all this out requires me to also think that I could successfully mislynch town-NSG (a lolworthy premise given how townish she is as town) AND that people would actually give a shit about this defence in this gamestate.

Not to give you any #greatideas but I feel like my flip is actually more indicative for NSG than vice versa

tl;dr: I'm either right about NSG or I'm scum with NSG

[Mathdino]

Btw this post happened in Tit for Tats spectator thread
Subject: Open 714: Unspoiled Spectator/Dead Chat

Mathdino sure is carrying out an exquisite dance around Northside. [Gawks]
I'm not familar with Northside's town game, but she's acting pretty much the way she did back in Open 701 where she was scum. Mathdino goes like

Mathdino: I know Northside's meta very well.
[Northside proceeds showing her scum meta]
Mathdino: Northside is locktown.
[Me: ...]

So Mathdino admitted to lying about thinking Northside is locktown and actually scumreads her? Starts making more sense. However, why is he so insistent on "my read on Northside may change depending on her reaction?" It's almost as if he wants to wagon Northside but not actually lynch her; also taking account that he's clearly campaigning against her without actually stating reasons.

In which her former partner agrees with my scumread on her
So I feel like NSG claiming she plays the same as VT and PR is false

[northsidegal]

Don't have time to respond to 528 fully right now, will later.

In all honesty I do find NSG's lack of frustration at Math constantly tunneling her, over a few games, rather strange. Like yes, she's disagreeing, but I think she either is the most patient person on MS or she finds it hard to produce convincing emotion as scum.

If it were me I would've blown up at Math by now.

Math is trying too hard AI for you?

Cheeky, when was the last time you saw me get upset? Someone said the same thing about me in a newbie game that I finished recently. I don't even think there's reason to get upset: I think math is scum, so the "nsg not being obvtown means she's scum" isn't genuine.

[northsidegal]

In which her former partner agrees with my scumread on her
So I feel like NSG claiming she plays the same as VT and PR is false

I don't understand your point here. For one, what motivation would I have to lie about that? If anything as scum it would benefit me to lie and agree with you to cast doubt as to whether any scumreads on me was just because I'm a pr.

But, like - I'm not lying. Yours and aster's reads don't even factor into it - I'm telling you right now that I do nothing to play differently as a pr vs vt.

[CheekyTeeky]

Don't have time to respond to 528 fully right now, will later.

In all honesty I do find NSG's lack of frustration at Math constantly tunneling her, over a few games, rather strange. Like yes, she's disagreeing, but I think she either is the most patient person on MS or she finds it hard to produce convincing emotion as scum.

If it were me I would've blown up at Math by now.

Math is trying too hard AI for you?

Cheeky, when was the last time you saw me get upset? Someone said the same thing about me in a newbie game that I finished recently. I don't even think there's reason to get upset: I think math is scum, so the "nsg not being obvtown means she's scum" isn't genuine.

This is true, I haven't seen that. Neither have I seen a player so determined to tunnel you in more than one game. No idea how you manage to stay calm lol.

[RedFlavor]

Yeah math has a point

VOTE: nsg