Micro 794: Miss List II (Game Over)

[CultOfAthena]

It might give me some indication that there's reason behind your reads that isn't strategic.

[Mathdino]

Idk i feel like the onus is on you to prove my read changes are strategic given that you're the one scumreading me

Like it just feels like a waste of time seeing as I don't have to convince you of anything since we're already voting together

And in the case that you're town I already agree BuJaber scum if not panther

[CultOfAthena]

All I am doing is asking you to explain your read on Not Mafia.

[Mathdino]

Magna is hard to read cos he's stuck in site meta of like 6-7 years ago

Helpful in an unhelpful Not_Mafia way
Shows actual nuanced attempt to read Magna
Town

VOTE: Heath

I think it's Creature and Heath, Creature will reveal himself before long anyway

Diving after the lurker, shows that he's thinking in PoE, agendaless
Town

lol I forgot this was 5-4

Towntell, check the timestamps, this was like 30 minutes later
Unplanned
Town

Heath, Creature, Chick, implosion

Gamesolve
Town

[Mathdino]

Oh yeah and implosion interrogating me about my read on Creature's 2 posts makes me think he already knew Creats was scum and was getting a leg up

I don't think creatures first 2 posts could've been anything but null

[CultOfAthena]

[implosion]

Fairly tired.

Setup breaking here seems to be a sort of strange beast; our EV is somewhere around 40%, and I doubt it's actually possible to beat that, but what the setup allows us to do is to exploit especially confident reads. So we are literally wagering the entire game on Creature being confscum with this plan. Which seems potentially reasonable. We can sort of do the force-x-to-sacrifice thing with any size of set of people, and detect when scum use their forced no-sacrifice. It's really odd.

There also is a part of me that wants to say fuck it to even lynching scumreads, and just focus on explicitly lynching hard-to-read people regardless of what people think their alignments are, if people can agree on who is difficult to read. I'm theoretically a candidate for that, but if I make it to lylo and am misread as scum then town still wins if I read correctly so it's like.

Idk. This still doesn't really feel like mafia. I don't really feel like doing anything in particular right now because nothing feels like it like, strongly helps us win the game. Like in regular mafia lynching scum is this great thing but in this setup it's just like oh boy we avoided a 20% chance to lose the game great. And even then mislynching and getting a shot off of it isn't necessarily bad bc eliminating scummy town in a way that isn't guaranteed by the sacrifice mechanic is useful. Idk.

All the talk about bussing vs not bussing is really stupid. The more I think about it the more reading into it is the kind of WIFOM that is actually completely indiscernible.

[CultOfAthena]

We can sort of do the force-x-to-sacrifice thing with any size of set of people, and detect when scum use their forced no-sacrifice. It's really odd.

I'm fairly certain that doing it with 3 or more people leaves us without any useful information as opposed to doing it with 2 people.

[implosion]

Hey I’m on board with this plan as long as the lynched player is not the one to determine the list.

And yeah although math already mentioned this.

I want to know *exactly* what line of reasoning led to this. Because the lynched player not being the one to determine the list has problems both with the fact that scum will inevitably bias the list, and with the fact that a lynched player is less likely to actually be willing to follow through on a plan if it's not a list they came up with.

And one of my big worries in this is some townie potentially deciding to go yolo for one reason or another after we construct a plan and just feeding us false information that we treat as sacrosanct.

[implosion]

We can sort of do the force-x-to-sacrifice thing with any size of set of people, and detect when scum use their forced no-sacrifice. It's really odd.

I'm fairly certain that doing it with 3 or more people leaves us without any useful information as opposed to doing it with 2 people.

Having more people in the group = lower odds of success, but higher payout.

If we do it with a list of 3 people and none of them die, then that *guarantees* that the majority of those players are scum, and additionally guarantees that either *all* of them are scum, or one is town and scum forced them not to sacrifice.

Which is a lot of information, and more information than we'd get in the 2-player version, but it's more likely that one or two (depending on scum strategy) of the sacrificers will actually be town.

[PantherPunt]

I skimmed to present but still didn't read pages 5-8ish so I want to do that before going into anything

MoI towny in everything I see and entertaining posts to boot. Math almost sorts not really push on me that I saw quoted was ugly and felt scummy but then in later posts felt towny for tone / emotion.

In that world where moi and math are both town and I think cult is town..I just have to find 1 more. That honestly feels too easy and I want to read all of math to feel less shaky on that read

I'll check which are the replace-in games for you math, but you better show your work for, at the very least, my enjoyment

Holy pedit: I relate to implosion post so hard regardless of his alignment. And that 20% rand to lose goes up each day you lynch scum btw!

I'm also down for whatever plan turns out to be best but I want to give those some thought too. Feels slightly yucky but also engrained into game. Imo scum should be allowed to block a sacrifice every night rather than one time but maybe I'm overlooking something bad about that

[PantherPunt]

Look forward to catching up but wife is bitching to get off phone. Glgl

[Mathdino]

Yeah townbloc complete
Mathdino
Magna
Cult
Not_Mafia
Panther

God help me try to get this to function though

[Creature]

Damn when you lose inspiration to play mafia.

[Creature]

Why is Magna town?

[Not_Mafia]

I'm not convinced by Panther

VOTE: Chickadee

Magna sacrifices

[Not_Mafia]

Damn when you lose inspiration to play mafia.

Damn when you're scum

[CultOfAthena]

Unvote

[Mathdino]

Honestly the presence of a player like creature in this setup kinda breaks things for town

[Mathdino]

I'm not convinced by Panther

VOTE: Chickadee

Magna sacrifices

It would probably be better for both of us if you sacrificed instead

[Mathdino]

So are we just waiting for Chickadee to propose a scumteam or what

[Chickadee]

OK sorry, I'm here. Saturdays are particularly bad, as I have back to back classes all day, and then standing plans. I'm caught up and will respond to things. I'm perfectly fine being the lynch. I need to think about who is on my list though. So give me a second before hammer. I want to reread some things.

In fact if she is the “Walking Mislynch” both she and Math have indicated I’d have expected scum to have really power bussed her for Town cred. Maybe the scum team is nervous about bussing for some reason (like, perhaps the entire team is generally weak players). It’s too early to tell but I’m this early I’m going with my gut.

I think this is a dangerous line of thinking to go down. Both Math and Chickadee herself have framed Chickadee as being lynchbait in response to my thinking she's scum, but I think a question that Chickadee has let go unanswered is a pretty important response to that idea:

Cult you could probably look at most of my games and see that I'm lynchbait. Seriously just take your pick.

Okay, what's your point?

My point is you are intent on scum reading me.

That example would be a lot easier to parse if you didn't use "one of bu/implosion".

That vote is a scumclaim, by the way

.

in what universe do you actually believe this wtf

I'm obvious town.

Everyone assumes they are obvtowning. They usually aren't. Get off your high horse.

I also feel like we're being really slow to form wagons? Which seems meh. Wagons are good here. The difference between a town lynch and a scum lynch isn't even that high right now and associative tells are possibly valuable.

Thought experiment Implosion - what does this fact tell you about the composition of the scum team in general?

--

Cult you could probably look at most of my games and see that I'm lynchbait. Seriously just take your pick.

Fun fact – I took a quick look at Chickadee’s most recent 5 completed games on site and came up with the following:

Mini Normal 1989 -

Chickadee, who was a Town Doctor, has been killed Night 4.

Mini Theme 1927 -

Spoiler: Alive
Chickadee - Mike Ehrmantraut, Mafia JOAT

– Translation Endgamed Town in Win

Micro 769 -

Chickadee Vanilla Town Lynched D1

Mini Theme 1968 -

Spoiler: Tasty Bread (8/13)
Chickadee EspeciallyTheLies

– Translation Survived with all scum dead

Mini Normal 1957 -

Chickadee, Mafia Even-Night Gunsmith, Lynched Day 2

@Chicka

– I’d like some insight from you as to why you agree with Math’s lynchbait assessment because these 5 games don’t seem to bear that out. Only one had you as Town lynched Day 1 and the only other game that you died by lynch was Day 2 as scum. Now this is just these first 5 completed games I saw in your ISO so if you have something to say to the contray I would love to hear it.

upick I was innocent child. That doesn't count. And I have this weird knack: If I think I'm doing well, and am actually interested and invested in a game, I am scum read as town. If I'm town in a game where I am uninvested and just floating by and generally dont know whats going on, I am town read. I clearly have no fucking clue how to town tell. So I don't really know what to tell you.

I think implosion is the most likely to win it for scum if he gets to endgame

Because he would implode.
BA-DUM-TCH!
I could not resist.....

[Chickadee]

Alright. Scum team.

Creature (OBVSCUM)

Otherwise:
BuJaber
MagnaofIllusion
implosion

[Mathdino]

Do you think you're doing well?

[Chickadee]

Do you think you're doing well?

I think I haven't had time to properly sit down and look at this game, but I am invested in it.