Micro 813 - Game Over

[OkaPoka]

Anti is confirmed partner

[Antihero]

ok

[GuiltyLion]

Hi just a quick check in, I still don't have time to play/think as much as I want to yet. Hopefully I can do that tomorrow morning, if not then then Monday for sure.

I have no intention to vote yet but leaning towards Oka. I hate to locktown someone for effort but that insane effort Oath post points her even more towards town for me.

Anyway we should get some more associatives from this double L-2 wagon so I'll keep an eye out for that

[LuckyOtter]

Effort does not equal town. Lynching anyone but maf today is insane. Checking back in tomorrow.

[OkaPoka]

i concur

[Oath]

Effort does not equal town. Lynching anyone but maf today is insane. Checking back in tomorrow.

It doesn't.

But lack of effort is definitely not beneficial to town. You come in drop a sentence and don't help us sort at all. We have a lot of information. Things you could weigh in on. Why is Maf scum? Is it the probability? Outside of probability, because there are scenarios in which he isn't scum, has he been indicatively scum motivated? How do you feel about ManateeDude? What about Oka's L-1 vote? Are you still considering Anti possible scum after they unvoted Maf?

I mean Otter, I've given you the benefit of the doubt and all it seems like you do is the bare minimum to stall us, occassionally offering up something of value that has usually already been said aka sheeping reads.

I definitely don't want your lynch today, but why are you so set on Maf? That's really the reason I don't feel comfortable with a Maf lynch because I don't trust you or the fact that he was run up so quickly. If you are town, this is me literally begging you for help/answers.

[LuckyOtter]

I feel like I said yesterday that I would be busy today. If not, I'm busy today.

I have been scumreading maf prior to this. Mostly because getting him to offer any reads at all is like pulling teeth.

Who exactly am I sheeping when I say you are scum and there's a good chance one of anti or gl is your partner?

I will check in tomorrow. Still have plenty of time.

[MafMen]

I feel like I said yesterday that I would be busy today. If not, I'm busy today.

I have been scumreading maf prior to this. Mostly because getting him to offer any reads at all is like pulling teeth.

Who exactly am I sheeping when I say you are scum and there's a good chance one of anti or gl is your partner?

I will check in tomorrow. Still have plenty of time.

i have my reads
all said and done

i have the scumteam

[Oath]

I feel like I said yesterday that I would be busy today. If not, I'm busy today.

I have been scumreading maf prior to this. Mostly because getting him to offer any reads at all is like pulling teeth.

Who exactly am I sheeping when I say you are scum and there's a good chance one of anti or gl is your partner?

I will check in tomorrow. Still have plenty of time.

You did not as far as I can tell.

You haven't outright said I'm scum though. You haven't actually been set either way this is why I'm asking. You've gone through all of the possibilities and still haven't clearly stated which you think is the MOST likely scum team.

Example:
here: viewtopic.php?p=10331046#p10331046

You say it's possible for Maf & Manatee scum plus ONE of GL, Anti, or Myself
In the same post you say it could be ONE of Maf/Manatee, and TWO of GL, Anti, or Myself
Stating that you wouldn't be surprised if the team was GL, Maf, and Myself

^ This would have been fine, BUT an hour and a half later...

here:

Now I'm annoyed and can't focus on my other work so I started working on scenarios. This is literally just POE based on the following events:
Manatee votes Maf
Anti votes Maf
Oka votes Maf
Oath votes me
Oath votes Oka

If you'd like to know which combos I eliminated at which stage and why, I'll provide that upon request instead of flooding you with a wall of all the steps.

There are 20 total combinations of 3 choices among 6 people, and I've narrowed it down to 8 possibilities including:
Maf + Manatee + Anti
Maf + Manatee + Oath
Maf + Manatee + Oka
Maf + Manatee + GL
Maf + Oath + Anti
Maf + Oath + GL
Maf + Oath + Oka
Manatee + Oka + Anti

The only scenario in which Maf isn't scum is the one where all 3 scum are sitting on town!Maf waiting for a townie to hammer. This is the dumbest scenario and will make me cry if it turns out to be the right one. So unless someone can convince me that that's not the dumbest scenario, or if there's any other scenario where Maf is town and I messed up in my PoE, that leaves Maf in every other possible combination, meaning I am 100% voting Maf today.

Manatee and Oath are both left in 4/7 combos, including one shared one. Oka, Anti, and GL appear in 2/7 combos each.

Again, I haven't reread to check associatives, but gut says Oath more likely than Manatee tomorrow.

Pedit: Well let's hope it's a

Maf + Manatee + Oka team

because otherwise someone in the {Anti, Oath, GL} love triangle is about to get their heart broken. Except that means Oka is literally asking us to lynch both his partners. Though, it might actually be plausible given the history of this setup, I think.

You list all the teams you see possible- except you don't list all of them you narrow it down to 8 teams when at this point from your PoV as I laid out here: viewtopic.php?p=10332506#p10332506
You should have 11 possibilities, but you left out 3:
Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oka/Maf

3 of which DO NOT have me in them. Why did you leave out those possibilities? Maf is in all 3 (and he's your only consistent scumread), as well as Anti or GL who you claim are all possibilities. You say you'll provide them on request but we're in lylo your job is to help us sort not only provide information as requested.

That post was the reason I did my post because yours seem so pointed- to skew the fact in probability by not presenting all options and hoping it would go unnoticed. I noticed. I even waited to see what would come of it, but you're not active. So we're here.

Then in bold: You claim it should be Me or Manatee tomorrow, but then state a Maf, Manatee, Oka team is plausible which would make me town in your eyes and lynching me a loss for town.

You go back and forth between presenting several possibilities including everyone (except yourself, but that's reasonable) - never actually giving weight to what team you think is most likely without back tracking from it.

I'm all for taking the time to sort- but you present as if you have no idea who could be Maf's partner in your eyes and town doesn't need to lose because you want to take a shot in the dark. I will give you credit for holding fast to your Maf read consistently as scum and calling for that lynch. I want us to have some where to go. I want reasoning for Maf being scum. We are down to the wire.

PSA for everyone: Just because we have time doesn't mean we sit in silence until 24 hours before deadline. It means we work now and maximize the time we have. You don't have to place a vote to talk and help us sort. I can't imagine why it's beneficial to anyone but scum to push off discussion with "oh we have time".

[Kublai Khan]

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Vote Count

MafMen - 2 - ManateeDude, OkaPoka
LuckyOtter - 1 - MafMen
OkaPoka - 1 - Antihero

Not Voting - LuckyOtter, GuiltyLion, Oath

With 7 alive, it takes 4 to lynch.

Deadline: (expired on 2018-07-27 14:44:59)

[LuckyOtter]

For these combos:
Anti/GL/Maf
Anti/Maf/Oka
GL/Oka/Maf

I do not see them as plausible because those people have been around consistently enough to have been able to coordinate a quicklynch after you voted me. If you want to argue that, fine, but stop telling me what I should be seeing from my own POV.

Also, "skewing the fact in probability" is exactly what you've been doing by precluding Anti as an option

from the outset, with nothing substantial to back it up

'Plausible' does not mean 'most likely,' it means 'believable,' or 'possible.' I can find one scumteam plausible but less likely than another. I also have the right

and the obligation

to weigh different options when I am uncertain about them, so while I have to consider the possibility that you are town (and it is still a possibility), that you continue to twist my words is not helping your case. Neither is your erratic voting behavior. If you are town, wouldn't someone who voted voted you

when there is a much more certain scum option present

immediately make that person shoot up in your scum ranking?

You're right about one thing, though, I really am not certain who maf's partner is.

No townie should be

. That does not equal me wanting to take a shot in the dark. So again, this feels like you're twisting my statements to look scummy.

Responding to your questions from earlier, which are fair:
Why is mafmen scum, other than probability? Let's look at his ISO:
- Defense of Manatee is based on so little information, I don't know how he could be so sure Manatee is town. I brought this up, and Maf never really adequately answered this. This feels like scum trying to get some town cred should manatee get mislynched. Then again, both Oka and I have seen a townie hard defend someone for no reason, and that person turned out to be scum. I really doubt that that's happening again, but it's not impossibile.
- He has been consistently hesitant to provide scumreads. The first ones he provides are from PoE and he doesn't seem to ever try to do much sorting from there. He, and I think I'm not exaggerating here, does literally nothing in the way of poking and prodding others. He just responds to questions and occasionally scumreads people with no justification
- D2 he says Invisibility is acting scummy but doesn't vote him. This could very easily be scum trying to fan the flames while not having to join the wagon.
- The scumread and vote on Anti also comes with no justification
- Hard townreads me then flips on me with no justification
This is scum.

How do I feel about Manatee? Great question, and I don't know. Either Maf was trying to protect him earlier or just WKing him. Manatee as scum would help explain why no quicklynches have happened. If Mafmen has been unhelpful, Manatee has been less helpful. You want to get one someone's case about doing the bare minimum, why are you looking at me?

What about Oka's l-1 vote? With Maf as scum it doesn't mean much to me, to be honest. Doesn't even make Oka less likely to be his partner. I think scum are probably happy to bus Maf as long as they can secure the mislynch tomorrow.

Now, I still need to check associatives to see which scumteams I generated actually make sense. I can't do that right now but I will when I have a moment. I am in the middle of moving houses right now so forgive me if my top priority right now isn't posting walls of text. I literally painted half of a house yesterday and should be packing exactly right this second.

In the meantime, Oath, is there gameplay other than D3 activities that points to Oka as scum for you? Unless I've missed it (which is possible as I haven't had time to reread carefully), I haven't seen a good case from anyone against Oka based on overall gameplay.

[OkaPoka]

@otter okay what is your scumteam?

[LuckyOtter]

Off the top of my head until I check associatives, current guess is Maf+Oath+ one of Anti/GL/Manatee.

If Oath is town, next guess is Maf+Manatee+Oka, meaning you're playing some kind of bussing/distancing gambit.

[GuiltyLion]

alright

I have read through everything again and I am now fully willing to bet the game on Oath and Anti being town

given this, plus the fact that there's at least one conf-scum in Maf/Manatee, means the only possible teams are:

Otter/Oka/Manatee
Otter/Oka/Maf
Otter/Manatee/Maf
Oka/Manatee/Maf

Otter and Oka seem to be quite a bit buddy-buddy after Oath has pushed back on the Maf lynch idea, which makes me inclined to think it's Otter/Oka/Manatee. Like Oath, I don't see any town motivation in Oka's sudden L-1 vote on Maf without warning after Antihero's vote. As long as it's not Otter/Manatee/Maf then voting Oka is a safe play, and so I intend do so within the next 24 hours or so - I'll let a few people respond to this post first.

Otter

- you seem deadset on lynching Maf today. Why haven't you voted him yet?

[OkaPoka]

okay im done sitting here and watching town play statistics and wifom and then lose this stupid ass game when we should have lynched mafmen yesterday.

mafmen has
a) quicklynched korina
b) gone off the rails with his manateedude defense
c) has managed to take irrational positions that make no sense to anyone, not even to himself
d) is not putting effort in explaining is reads at all

it is appalling that the best reason for not lynching mafmen i can find right now is him being a village idiot. no
lynch mafmen
ffs

[MafMen]

okay im done sitting here and watching town play statistics and wifom and then lose this stupid ass game when we should have lynched mafmen yesterday.

mafmen has
a) quicklynched korina
b) gone off the rails with his manateedude defense
c) has managed to take irrational positions that make no sense to anyone, not even to himself
d) is not putting effort in explaining is reads at all

it is appalling that the best reason for not lynching mafmen i can find right now is him being a village idiot. no
lynch mafmen
ffs

idek what you want to say
my reads are mainly poe based
i said you v anti looks fake
i have no decision but to mark lucky as scum

like what else is there

as well as i never intended to quicklynch korina, ill say it time and again

[Oath]

For these combos:

Also, "skewing the fact in probability" is exactly what you've been doing by precluding Anti as an option

from the outset, with nothing substantial to back it up

Actually in my post I included all Anti possibilities that made logical sense. My personal read on Anti is that he isn't scum, but if you read my post you'd also see that I've clearly laid out why Anti as scum or town is irrelevant as WE NEVER HAVE TO VOTE HIM to win- we could lynch 2/3rd of the scum team and succeed. This is why I want your team options- if we can all agree to 2/3rds we can go through with a plan.

'Plausible' does not mean 'most likely,' it means 'believable,' or 'possible.' I can find one scumteam plausible but less likely than another. I also have the right

and the obligation

to weigh different options when I am uncertain about them, so while I have to consider the possibility that you are town (and it is still a possibility), that you continue to twist my words is not helping your case. Neither is your erratic voting behavior. If you are town, wouldn't someone who voted voted you

when there is a much more certain scum option present

immediately make that person shoot up in your scum ranking?

1. I'm not making a case for myself. I'm asking you about your reads. We seem to be approaching this from two different mind frames and that is what worries me about you.
2. My erratic voting behavior? I voted You and then I voted Oka, neither of which were in danger of lynching based on what we have in activity there obviously isn't a scum team capable of quicklynching- I could lynch either you or Oka and be comfortable with it because I genuinely think you and Oka are scum. I only think Oka should go first because I am slightly more convinced by the L-1 vote.

Responding to your questions from earlier, which are fair:
Why is mafmen scum, other than probability? Let's look at his ISO:
- Defense of Manatee is based on so little information, I don't know how he could be so sure Manatee is town. I brought this up, and Maf never really adequately answered this. This feels like scum trying to get some town cred should manatee get mislynched. Then again, both Oka and I have seen a townie hard defend someone for no reason, and that person turned out to be scum. I really doubt that that's happening again, but it's not impossibile.
- He has been consistently hesitant to provide scumreads. The first ones he provides are from PoE and he doesn't seem to ever try to do much sorting from there. He, and I think I'm not exaggerating here, does literally nothing in the way of poking and prodding others. He just responds to questions and occasionally scumreads people with no justification
- D2 he says Invisibility is acting scummy but doesn't vote him. This could very easily be scum trying to fan the flames while not having to join the wagon.
- The scumread and vote on Anti also comes with no justification
- Hard townreads me then flips on me with no justification
This is scum.

- This is what I mean by inconsistent. Maf is scummy for hard defending Manatee, but you have admittedly seen townies do that, but also you doubt it's happening here? You seem to be leaving yourself a lot of outs should you decide to change your tune before a lynch.
- You also state that Manatee and Maf have done an equal amount of nothing to help, but are still pushing for Maf before Manatee- why Maf first? That's what I want to know. That's where my hesistation lies. Both of them have presented as equally scummy. We know that at least one of them is scum. You wanting Maf first, seems odd. I don't want either one of them lynched today because if either does flip red, where does town go tomorrow? There is still the chance that both are scum, so a red flip doesn't clear either of them.
Justification is tricky for me, because although town should provide reasoning and justification I don't think the absence of it is immediately alignment indicative. Now Oka's L-1 without justification came so quickly after Anti that it reads as scum circumstantially given that we're in lylo. Otherwise I probably wouldn't give it the weight I have.

How do I feel about Manatee? Great question, and I don't know. Either Maf was trying to protect him earlier or just WKing him. Manatee as scum would help explain why no quicklynches have happened. If Mafmen has been unhelpful, Manatee has been less helpful. You want to get one someone's case about doing the bare minimum, why are you looking at me?

What about Oka's l-1 vote? With Maf as scum it doesn't mean much to me, to be honest. Doesn't even make Oka less likely to be his partner. I think scum are probably happy to bus Maf as long as they can secure the mislynch tomorrow.

I am looking at you because you're here. ManateeDude has shown he's not going to participate either way, prodding that slot isn't going to get us anywhere. I need information.

I asked about Oka's vote because if it's likely to you that Oka is Maf's partner then why not lynch Oka today? Whether Maf is town or scum, Oka's vote is not a town move. That is my point. We need to lynch the most likely to flip scum, so unless you think Oka could still be town I would reason that Oka is the better lynch TODAY.

Now, I still need to check associatives to see which scumteams I generated actually make sense. I can't do that right now but I will when I have a moment. I am in the middle of moving houses right now so forgive me if my top priority right now isn't posting walls of text. I literally painted half of a house yesterday and should be packing exactly right this second.

Honestly, this makes no difference to me. Sorry if that's mean, but if you don't have the time don't play the game. I like to win and I've seen town lose too many times because of poor activity and if you are town I need you to show it.

In the meantime, Oath, is there gameplay other than D3 activities that points to Oka as scum for you? Unless I've missed it (which is possible as I haven't had time to reread carefully), I haven't seen a good case from anyone against Oka based on overall gameplay.

Outside of D3 activities I wasn't on Oka at all really, but looking back...
Oka and Anti are the only people who were on both lynches (besides myself)
Oka argues for both town and scum Korina and Invis, but ultimately chooses to vote them over Manatee and Maf they've consistently called scum.

I will say the strength of my conviction is from that vote. Oka has yet to clarify, not even really bothered. Oka has been nonchalant about it, as have you. It almost seems like you both want us not to think too much about it. How is that not a red flag though? Placing someone at L-1 in lylo as rapidly as Oka did should rub you the wrong way? It's the circumstance. It's that Oka could have placed the vote at any time if they wanted Maf lynch yet waited until after Anti voted. That is what makes me believe Anti is town and Oka is scum because in that situation Anti unvoted. If there was something happening, mislynch or scum partner bus, Anti was not going to allow it to happen which if Anti were scum, I would think that they'd allow a townMaf mislynch for the win OR be on board with bussing their scum partner if that was the plan.


Maybe this will make more sense to everyone: We have to lynch scum today or we lose. The game mechanics are so that if we lynch scum they get a kill.

If we lynch Maf and he's scum- do you think scum will kill a townManatee? Or would they leave him here to be inactive and another case of WIFOM?
If we lynch Manatee and he's scum - SAME QUESTIONS except will they kill a townMaf?

Lynching any scum will always mean one of whichever remaining five of us dies : GL, Anti, Otter, Oath, Oka
If you lynch Oka scum, that narrows their kills down to the 4 of us. If Oka is town- I'm pretty sure we've lost anyway, they're now easily lynchbait just like Maf.
Do you not find that more beneficial in narrowing down the possibilities? Especially considering that you and I have opposing views on Anti, GL, and each other? They'd have to confirm one of us in the flip.
MafMan has so many scum teams possible the flip of them does nothing but get us to tomorrow in the same place essentially.

Again this relies heavily on Okascum but you've not denounced Oka as scum, only that you prefer a Maf lynch. So can you see what I mean at least?

[OkaPoka]

Clarify what? I think mafmen is scum like i have been saying so i voted him

[Kublai Khan]

Prodding ManateeDude

[ManateeDude]

Ok can we honestlyjust lynch mafmen.. its too late to make any crazy game decisions.

Im assuming oath is town rn. Not really feeling any other townvibes

[Oath]

Clarify what? I think mafmen is scum like i have been saying so i voted him

Why did you wait until Anti voted to place the vote?

Ok can we honestlyjust lynch mafmen.. its too late to make any crazy game decisions.

Im assuming oath is town rn. Not really feeling any other townvibes

We're not making decisions, we're discussing them. Who else is scum with Maf?

[OkaPoka]

i dunno felt like it was the right time to just vote him

maf+manatee+anti probably
unsure about the third, i guess it could be anyone but pretty confident in the first two tho

[Oath]

It was the right time... in lylo... to put Maf at L-1... that early into the day... without discussion? Were you not concerned with a hammer vote or did you want one?

[OkaPoka]

i def wanted a hammer vote

because mafmen is scum

discussion got boring

[MafMen]

Why is mafmen scum, other than probability? Let's look at his ISO:
- Defense of Manatee is based on so little information, I don't know how he could be so sure Manatee is town. I brought this up, and Maf never really adequately answered this. This feels like scum trying to get some town cred should manatee get mislynched. Then again, both Oka and I have seen a townie hard defend someone for no reason, and that person turned out to be scum. I really doubt that that's happening again, but it's not impossibile.
- He has been consistently hesitant to provide scumreads. The first ones he provides are from PoE and he doesn't seem to ever try to do much sorting from there. He, and I think I'm not exaggerating here, does literally nothing in the way of poking and prodding others. He just responds to questions and occasionally scumreads people with no justification
- D2 he says Invisibility is acting scummy but doesn't vote him. This could very easily be scum trying to fan the flames while not having to join the wagon.
- The scumread and vote on Anti also comes with no justification
- Hard townreads me then flips on me with no justification
This is scum.

- i know his meta very well, easy as that, as scum if hes even given the slightest bit of pressure he freezes, like how are you stuck up on this
- if im ABSOLUTELY sure people are town then im going to easily poe and feel that's all i need to do
- yeah, however i was hesitant after the green flip, how many times have i said this?
- poe and his oka argument looks fake
- because literally everyone, and i think even you, were saying that scum is between you and manatee from my pov, and i chose you


you really arent reading my fucking posts are you?