Micro 814: Geriatric Trio (Mafia Victory!!!)

[MichelSableheart]

@kmd: I can definitely see Invis as scum, but I really don't see an invis-Nonny team ending up at a Hito nightkill when they could have nightkilled you.

Especially because, given a hito nightkill, I highly doubt an invis-Nonny team would wait to see who gets voted first, as that is far too likely to end in the answer of "Nonny".

In fact, I think this pairing is unlikely enough that it's the main reason my PoE ends up on musicbox rather then invisibility.

[Kmd4390]

I guess I'm just not seeing why it would make sense for any scum team to keep Hito alive. He was pretty obvtown.

Especially because, given a hito nightkill, I highly doubt an invis-Nonny team would wait to see who gets voted first, as that is far too likely to end in the answer of "Nonny".

Interesting. You started the day thinking you were going to be voted. What changed? Or was I misunderstand you entrance today?

[MichelSableheart]

I guess I'm just not seeing why it would make sense for any scum team to keep Hito alive. He was pretty obvtown.

I guess it's more obvious from my point of view, as I know I'm town. Hito was tunneling my slot, to the extend that the mere fact that I defended NM upon replacing in was enough to convince him to vote NM, allowing Nonny the hammer.

That vote, and the way it pushed through a lynch on my townread while protecting someone who I felt was far more likely scum, made me extremely suspicious of a hito-Nonny scumpairing.

Given those suspicions, leaving both me and Hito alive is extremely likely to end in either hito voting me or me voting hito, giving mafia the last mislynch they need.

Interesting. You started the day thinking you were going to be voted. What changed? Or was I misunderstand you entrance today?

I expected that the mafia would use the suspicion on me that resulted from the Hito nightkill to push through a mislynch, yes.

However, to do that, they would need the town to analyse the Hito nightkill. Now let's be honest here, activity in this town hasn't been great. If a Nonny-invis team wait to see who gets voted first, they would have to gamble that either you or musicbox is going to do the analysis that would end up with a vote for me. However, it would be just as likely that the two of you simply don't do that analysis, and instead vote for the player you were suspecting yesterday: Nonny.

Basically, a Nonny-invis team would need to steer the conversation in my direction, not wait passively.

[Music Box]

I still have limited access and haven't been able to go deeper into this yet. I want to go back over what both MoI and hito were saying and also cross check a few things from the last two pages, while looking at possible pairings, which I should be able to do over the next few days.

I don't like that Invis is still such a blank slate.

[Invisibility]

hi
sorry im really out of this game
like if you have any questions to ask me then do it

[nonny]

Invisibility: are you scum? (You said if we have any questions to ask)

Okay, for real, I did ask but it was in wall of text. Invisibility please post a reads list and who you think most likely pair is

[Invisibility]

okay
nonny is probably town michel pointed out a thing about killing hito
michel slot has not been townie like at all this game until the rep in and i think they're town?
like why rule out a nonny lynch which is likely to happen?
wait maybe if michel was scum he would have thought it would have little impact inside the wall
ok so basically the michel slot was not townie for most of the game and this new towniness from michel isnt really like making me think that its actually solving greater than its making me think that its just fake solving
kmd is townie i see the mindset there
btw pls disregard the associative thing with nm
also michel
uh
uh
what was i going to say
oh yeah michel has some lamisty thing in the post about scumteams with nonny and saying that hito nk points away from nonny
(btw just because i think someone is scummy doesnt mean that they cant be right about anything)

so yeah scumteam is michel and musicbox
oh wait i didnt mention my musicbox read
i think music box is scum who's been coasting all game
(i think thats how you use coasting correctly)
also i have no idea if this makes sense as a scumteam
oh yeah it kinda does
music box has a weird early scumread of komala that she never explains even after realizing that she hadn't explained it
then hardly mentions the slot ever again

[nonny]

So viz do you think Michel is currently bussing Musicbox?

[MichelSableheart]

wait maybe if michel was scum he would have thought it would have little impact inside the wall

(btw just because i think someone is scummy doesnt mean that they cant be right about anything)

Invisibility, with quotes like these it feels that you start on the assumption I'm scum, and then look how the evidence can be made to match that assuption, rather than that you're looking at the evidence and seeing where it takes you.

[Aristophanes]

Do you guys want a fancy VC?
So far no votes, 3 to lynch
D3 Ends Aug 30/18 at like 11am or in (expired on 2018-08-30 11:00:00)

I feel useless lol
This is the current timer.

[nonny]

Music box: can you give us a solid date of when your limited access ends?

[Invisibility]

wait maybe if michel was scum he would have thought it would have little impact inside the wall

(btw just because i think someone is scummy doesnt mean that they cant be right about anything)

Invisibility, with quotes like these it feels that you start on the assumption I'm scum, and then look how the evidence can be made to match that assuption, rather than that you're looking at the evidence and seeing where it takes you.

the first one was me thinking through it and see a logical situation where you could be scum with the evidence provided
the second one was a thing where in a previous game i was called scummy for agreeing with a person's argument from a person that i was nullreading
i was going to explain my stance the same way i did in that post but i got lynched before i could

[Kmd4390]

Michel, I see where you're coming from on the Hito kill, but I also don't think anyone other than you would have thought out interactions to that extent. If you are town, it's much more likely that hito was killed for being obvtown or scum picked up on him being a power role. I really do think it's that simple.

As for an Invisibility/nonny team needing your Lynch today...why? Music Box is probably an easier Lynch for them to secure. I'm not seeing how you are the only mislynch that team would have.

And as far as that team needing to steer conversation... I think it's obvious regardless of alignment that at least Invisibility was never going to do that.

Can you sell me on Invisibility/music box without using the NK?

[nonny]

Hey, Invisibility! Whatcha doing?

Wanna answer my question, please?

So viz do you think Michel is currently bussing Musicbox?

KMD: what did you think of my summary of musicbox/Invisibility as possible team? (Can’t link mobile, sorry)

[Kmd4390]

Nothing really stands out. The random votes don't mean much to me. I agree Invisibility being low content makes it hard to rule out partners. The "RC is scummier" thing is really the only good point I see.

[MichelSableheart]

As for an Invisibility/nonny team needing your Lynch today...why? Music Box is probably an easier Lynch for them to secure. I'm not seeing how you are the only mislynch that team would have.

And as far as that team needing to steer conversation... I think it's obvious regardless of alignment that at least Invisibility was never going to do that.

My reasoning is the following:

• Nonny was yesterday's top suspect after NM.
• Therefore, unless something special happened, nonny would likely end up being the lynch
• A nonny-invis pairing would like to prevent Nonny getting lynched.
• One way to do that would be to leave both Hito and me alive, and hope our suspicions of each other would result in a mislynch.
• Another way to do that would be to steer the conversation towards me based on hito's suspicion of me yesterday.
• A third way would be to steer the conversation towards someone else.
• However, nonny and invis were doing none of these things, nor were they doing anything else to prevent a Nonny lynch.
• This makes it unlikely that nonny and invis are scum together

Can you sell me on Invisibility/music box without using the NK?

That's difficult. Both of them have been rather lurky, making it almost impossible to point at something they did as being scummy. Also,

I feel I've waited long enough for responses. Deadline is coming closer, and I want some time to be able to react to how the wagons fall.

VOTE: Musicbox

[MichelSableheart]

The also below the second quote is a remnant of my consideration of mentioning that I could easily see a musicbox-kmd pairing as well. In the end, I decided against it.

[nonny]

I know musicbox announced limited access, but I don’t like how vague it is. Feel like some effort would still be made to defend himself or atleast post reads instead of promises for content that have yet to be fulfilled

Invisibility has also been quick to vote all game and from what I’ve seen in other games typically votes almost with reckless abandon (no better way to describe it, I’m sure to him they make sense) . But no vote has come. Also, he could have easily voted musicbox since he was already under FoS.

[Kmd4390]

Michel are you ignoring my points or you just disagree? I don't think nonny was today's default Lynch (and neither did you at day start) and I don't think nonny or invisibility were ever going to steer any conversations today regardless of their alignment.

[MichelSableheart]

Michel are you ignoring my points or you just disagree?

I don't think nonny was today's default Lynch

(

and neither did you at day start

) and I don't think nonny or invisibility were ever going to steer any conversations today regardless of their alignment.

I'm trying to explain that I disagree with both the bold and the italics, whereas the unbolded is a large part of why I would expect a nonny-invis pair to keep Hito alive.

[Invisibility]

So viz do you think Michel is currently bussing Musicbox?

yes

[Kmd4390]

Michel are you ignoring my points or you just disagree?

I don't think nonny was today's default Lynch

(

and neither did you at day start

) and I don't think nonny or invisibility were ever going to steer any conversations today regardless of their alignment.

I'm trying to explain that I disagree with both the bold and the italics, whereas the unbolded is a large part of why I would expect a nonny-invis pair to keep Hito alive.

Lol I give up. This isn't going anywhere.

[Music Box]

so yeah scumteam is michel and musicboxoh wait i didnt mention my musicbox readi think music box is scum who's been coasting all game(i think thats how you use coasting correctly)also i have no idea if this makes sense as a scumteamoh yeah it kinda doesmusic box has a weird early scumread of komala that she never explains even after realizing that she hadn't explained itthen hardly mentions the slot ever again

The slot wasn't around very much after that until Michel took it over, (I did give my position on it in 252) but I don't like the way he is constructing cases based on what he says people might do, rather than what they are actually doing. His whole play toDay seems pre-planned.

[Music Box]

Music box: can you give us a solid date of when your limited access ends?

I'll be able to post every day from now on.

I know musicbox announced limited access, but I don’t like how vague it is. Feel like some effort would still be made to defend himself or atleast post reads instead of promises for content that have yet to be fulfilled

Defend myself against what? As for my reads, I still don't get any scum vibes from KMD or Invis, but I don't think my read on Invis is anywhere near strong enough to call him town yet. So he's third in line after you and Michel.

Invisibility has also been quick to vote all game and from what I’ve seen in other games typically votes almost with reckless abandon (no better way to describe it, I’m sure to him they make sense) . But no vote has come. Also, he could have easily voted musicbox since he was already under FoS.

Have you forgotten it's lylo? Why are you anxious for him to vote me? Are you hoping to get a quick hammer?

[nonny]

No, I’m well aware. I didn’t say I want him to vote, I said istands out he hasn’t voted. Every game I’ve seen him in, this one included he is very happy to vote and wagon. It’s a change that he is not voting.