Miccro 821: Welcome Micc Mafia! (D1)

[2 718281828459]

It's painfully obvious how the rest of this day phase is going to play out.

I disagree. Someone could hammer me 5 minutes from now, or 5 minutes from the deadline. Or we might lynch you, or bill. Or

maybe

someone else (perhaps maybe Alonzo?) will do something stupid and

they

will be lynched.

2.718 is almost certainly going to end up voting for me, either later today or sometime tomorrow. He'll probably say something along the lines of "I don't feel good about this, a Rob lynch would be better, but I know I'm town so blah blah blah."

I would only vote for you if there were no other options. I would not say "but I know I'm town so blah blah blah"; I would instead say something like "but evidently people think Bill is scum so let's just see." It would remind me of Newbie 1877, when the town had decided not to lynch UglyDuck (who I had thought was scum for a while) until day 4, and we ended up lynching Crimson, who flipped town.

Rob is in a more precarious position, since he has called me the most pro-town player here. He'll do one of three things (in order of likelihood)

a) Not vote for me or 2.718, instead forcing someone on either my wagon or 2.718's wagon to switch. Then after my ass flips town, he (and 2.718, for that matter) will go around pimping about how they "knew Bill was town/had a feeling he wasn't scum" for some easy town-cred

Hold it, it seems like you are implying that Rob could force someone on your wagon to switch to me?
Also, if you get lynched, I would have already expressed reservations about your lynch

long before

you end up getting lynched, so anyone saying that I was doing it for "easy town-cred" would be misleading.

b) hammer his scum-buddy to earn some town cred

Wait. Are you trying to imply that I am Rob's scum-buddy, or not? (Genuine question.)

c) hammer me

Alonzo still has a decent chance of flipping scum imo, but the entire last page between the other two almost felt like a forced distancing project.

How would it be a distancing project? I do not see what you mean.

2. Disproving a case on yourself is NAI but the way that PP was doing it struck me as town.

Alright, so explain then. You based a lot of your Penguin read on the fact they "want to get information while debunking posts that he thinks are false". Now you're saying your two examples of that aren't alignment indicative based on the debunking but based on something else. I don't see that as consistent.

Uhhh... this is a misrepresentation of what I meant.
I meant that debunking reads

in and of itself

is NAI, but because of the particular manner that Penguin did it, gave him town credits.
He used facts and showed the motivation for town to do what he did (like asking questions). What he did

not

do is non-constructively attack the arguments without creating his own arguments.
That all gave me an intuitive sense of town-ness that is a little bit difficult to put into words.

[Alonzo]

In post 415, bill1148 wrote:
It's painfully obvious how the rest of this day phase is going to play out.
I disagree. Someone could hammer me 5 minutes from now, or 5 minutes from the deadline. Or we might lynch you, or bill. Or maybe someone else (perhaps maybe Alonzo?) will do something stupid and they will be lynched.

2.718 is almost certainly going to end up voting for me, either later today or sometime tomorrow. He'll probably say something along the lines of "I don't feel good about this, a Rob lynch would be better, but I know I'm town so blah blah blah."
I would only vote for you if there were no other options. I would not say "but I know I'm town so blah blah blah"; I would instead say something like "but evidently people think Bill is scum so let's just see." It would remind me of Newbie 1877, when the town had decided not to lynch UglyDuck (who I had thought was scum for a while) until day 4, and we ended up lynching Crimson, who flipped town.

Im the guy who opened the door to the possibility of you being town here and got you this stage, most others want you dead, or dislike your style. Please do not continue to bite the hand that feeds you.

You were a bumbling mess in that one and I had to worked hard to calculate you weren't scum there and it was more likely crimson, or at least clearing crimson gave town a better position to win in lylo. You fucked that up, not me. It was your content you posted that got you mislynched.

Do not shade me. Im on a short fuse RN .

[PenguinPower]

whats happened to the penguin anyway?

As previously stated, I'm low activity on weekends. More so since this is a holiday weekend. I'll catch up in the morning (~12-14 hours).

[Rob14]

Yeah, inactivity is not alignment indicative this weekend.

[Rob14]

Uhhh... this is a misrepresentation of what I meant.

Are you saying that's scummy from me? I'm not a mind reader. Whether it was what you meant is questionable, but it's certainly not what you wrote.

PenguinPower seems like another aggressive townie early on. The entire game PP seems to want to get information while debunking posts that he thinks are false. (Evidence: 296 and especially 298)

Also, you said "the entire game", so clearly you can give me examples other than the two posts where he was arguing against a case on him, right?

[2 718281828459]

Gah, I meant "The entire game" to only apply to "want to get information".

I guess this is what happens when you read someone last after spending 1-1.5 hours on five other people.

[PenguinPower]

there are lots of small NAI posts mixed in

If they are NAI, then why do they impact how you read my alignment?

(By the way, 372 links to the wrong game -- you mean Newbie 1876, right? Where I was scum and lost terribly?)

No, I linked the correct game.

it's possible both are

You think E! busses his partner nonstop d1?

It's possible.

I was asked if I thought you bus your partner nonstop. I linked I game where I successfully bussed my partner the entire game to a win to show that it is possible.

would I choose the person who's the target of the biggest wagon and actively try to stop that wagon? That would be terrible play.

Can I interest anyone in a last minute Penguin wagon?

That's the post I see as the start of the 2.7 wagon, rather than Penguin's lone vote. I don't see that as a viable time to bus when it could kill the wagon on me.

How convenient for your tunnel. I started the Inferno wagon without voting, but I didn't start the 2.718 wagon despite actually starting it.

1. I asked the questions because I realized that I needed to start being proactive and try to ask for information and not just sit back and let everyone else do all the questioning.

Because you realized you were about to be lynched?

So, nothing has changed for me. Can we get intent on 2.718 plskthx?

Alonzo/UC: Bill is not being lynched today, so get off that wagon. Choose between Rob and 2.718.

[Alonzo]

What you reckon UCV?

[2 718281828459]

When I said "there are lots of NAI posts mixed in", I meant that horrordude was constantly pro-town on almost every post while you (PenguinPower) made a lot of fluff posts that make the read less strong.

[horrordude0215]

it's possible both are

You think E! busses his partner nonstop d1?

It's possible.

I was asked if I thought you bus your partner nonstop. I linked I game where I successfully bussed my partner the entire game to a win to show that it is possible.

Do you think that e, as a newer player that is not as good at this game as you are, would bus a partner in a (likely 5:2) Micro for all of Day 1 when there would be other mislynch opportunities around?

[Rob14]

Intent to hammer on 2.7. I really don't like the way he's handled the Penguin read. I don't find his responses to my questions convincing. It reads as trying to come to the conclusion of town!Penguin so he can keep up his tunnel on me, the only other viable wagon for today.

And Penguin, if you really think you added more momentum to a wagon on 2.7 than the wagon on my slot, I don't know what to tell you. You clearly started the momentum on my slot to a far greater degree than you did on 2.7.

[2 718281828459]

Because you realized you were about to be lynched?

No, because I received more than one suggestion that I had not done any scum hunting.

I don't find his responses to my questions convincing. It reads as trying to come to the conclusion of town!Penguin so he can keep up his tunnel on me, the only other viable wagon for today.

I want to understand how they are "not convincing". I am not trying to come to a "conclusion"; I am merely trying to defend a read that I admitted when I gave it that I was uncertain.
Even then, you

may

have persuaded me to change PP to a 4 but I saw nothing in that ISO that would specifically make me think PP is

scum

.

I think that you are probably hoping to score a mislynch on me. If anything, it is your arguments that are "not convincing".

You never stated a deadline for when you intend to hammer. I know I am biased but to me it seems like you are going to hammer no matter what and are just letting me squirm a while before finding a "reason" to cast the deciding vote.

[2 718281828459]

You know what, the line

I think that you are probably hoping to score a mislynch on me. If anything, it is your arguments that are "not convincing".

was a bit strong. Pretend I wrote this instead:

Your argument for the Intent to Hammer strikes me as a bit weak and ungrounded, although this could just be my bias.

[horrordude0215]

E, you're supposed to claim when someone declares intent.

[PenguinPower]

it's possible both are

You think E! busses his partner nonstop d1?

It's possible.

I was asked if I thought you bus your partner nonstop. I linked I game where I successfully bussed my partner the entire game to a win to show that it is possible.

Do you think that e, as a newer player that is not as good at this game as you are, would bus a partner in a (likely 5:2) Micro for all of Day 1 when there would be other mislynch opportunities around?

The game I linked was my 3rd game and 1st scum game on site. I’m not removing the possibility right now.

[Rob14]

^ Yeah, that. I'm waiting to see if your claim indicates I should be looking elsewhere.

I know this is going to be unconvincing, but I'm going to say it anyway. I know I'm getting lynched this game, because I replaced into a really scummy slot and Penguin has y'all wrapped around his little finger. If I wanted to just score a mislynch, I would have lolhammered as soon as you were L-1 to deprive the town of further useful information, such as relational tells between me and others. It would have helped whomever my scum buddy was for me to do so, and since I'm almost certainly getting lynched tomorrow anyway barring a cop innocent on me or a cop guilty on someone else, that would be the best I could really hope to accomplish.

As for "not convincing", you either completely botched it when you typed your read of Penguin, with multiple cases of saying things you didn't mean, or I caught you trying to justify a town read on Penguin without the basis for doing so. I think the latter is substantially more likely, since you've been generally articulate this game. I just flat-out don't believe #430, and when I add the other instances of you back-tracking on that read in #425, it doesn't look great.

By the way, Penguin, the fact you're still claiming I'm tunneling you is getting weird. I had a scum-read on Alonzo since my catch-up. I've been questioning 2.7 the past two pages. Clearly, I'm not only looking at you.

Also, I just want to note that a 2.7 scum flip

does not clear Penguin

. Absolutely not. Scum!Penguin's vote on Scum!2.7 when it looked like my slot would be mislynched would make a lot of sense, since it distances from their scum partner with minimal risk. No-one was scum-reading 2.7 at the time (that I can recall - correct me if wrong), and Penguin didn't initially provide any reasons, so they can't expect others to suddenly form a wagon. When Penguin did eventually provide reasons for shifting from Inferno (198), they minimized them by noting counter-wagons often don't form in micros and that they're still fine with an Inferno lynch. They still, at that point, did not provide specific reasons 2.7 is scummy. In fact, looking through his ISO, I don't see a case on 2.7 from Penguin ever? Unless I'm missing it.

I'll dig into meta on Alonzo during the night; I think I badly misread him because his posting style is quite different. If he posts like he does here in other town games, he's probably null from me.

[Rob14]

it's possible both are

You think E! busses his partner nonstop d1?

It's possible.

I was asked if I thought you bus your partner nonstop. I linked I game where I successfully bussed my partner the entire game to a win to show that it is possible.

Do you think that e, as a newer player that is not as good at this game as you are, would bus a partner in a (likely 5:2) Micro for all of Day 1 when there would be other mislynch opportunities around?

TBF, my strongest bus of all time was my first newbie game, I think. And I bus a lot.

[2 718281828459]

^ Yeah, that. I'm waiting to see if your claim indicates I should be looking elsewhere.

I did not want to have to say this, but

I am a 1-Shot Bulletproof Townie

.

I know this is going to be unconvincing, but I'm going to say it anyway. I know I'm getting lynched this game, because I replaced into a really scummy slot and Penguin has y'all wrapped around his little finger. If I wanted to just score a mislynch, I would have lolhammered as soon as you were L-1 to deprive the town of further useful information, such as relational tells between me and others.

Then you would have secured your doom. What I suspected is that you want to mislynch me but make it appear that it would be justified so you may actually survive.

It would have helped whomever my scum buddy was for me to do so, and since I'm almost certainly getting lynched tomorrow anyway barring a cop innocent on me or a cop guilty on someone else, that would be the best I could really hope to accomplish.

OK, although what if you are, say, a Serial Killer or the game is 6v1?

As for "not convincing", you either completely botched it when you typed your read of Penguin, with multiple cases of saying things you didn't mean

Multiple?

, or I caught you trying to justify a town read on Penguin without the basis for doing so.

Again, I might be persuaded to move Penguin to a null read but I definitely cannot go below that.

I think the latter is substantially more likely, since you've been generally articulate this game. I just flat-out don't believe #430,

Maybe next time you should try spending more than an hour trying to read six people, and see how many mistakes you make in the 6th read when you are sort of worn out. And make sure that 6th read is someone who is not the easiest to read in the first place.

and when I add the other instances of you back-tracking on that read in #425, it doesn't look great.

Back-tracking is a little strong.

By the way, Penguin, the fact you're still claiming I'm tunneling you is getting weird. I had a scum-read on Alonzo since my catch-up. I've been questioning 2.7 the past two pages. Clearly, I'm not only looking at you.

Also, I just want to note that a 2.7 scum flip

does not clear Penguin

. Absolutely not. Scum!Penguin's vote on Scum!2.7 when it looked like my slot would be mislynched would make a lot of sense, since it distances from their scum partner with minimal risk. No-one was scum-reading 2.7 at the time (that I can recall - correct me if wrong), and Penguin didn't initially provide any reasons, so they can't expect others to suddenly form a wagon. When Penguin did eventually provide reasons for shifting from Inferno (198), they minimized them by noting counter-wagons often don't form in micros and that they're still fine with an Inferno lynch. They still, at that point, did not provide specific reasons 2.7 is scummy. In fact, looking through his ISO, I don't see a case on 2.7 from Penguin ever? Unless I'm missing it.

I'll dig into meta on Alonzo during the night; I think I badly misread him because his posting style is quite different. If he posts like he does here in other town games, he's probably null from me.

Acknowledged.

[Rob14]

And your flavor name?

[2 718281828459]

What are you talking about?

I know we have little time but I would like to try to get an extension.

Keep in mind that due to plurality lynch I am currently the target, so hey anyone who for some reason wants me dead, no need to actually hammer because we can just wait it out.

[2 718281828459]

Wait, disregard that last line. I thought we were using forced lynches, but we are actually not.

[Rob14]

What is the character name you're given as part of the flavor in your role PM?

[Alonzo]

you gonna hammer based on fluff?

[2 718281828459]

Yeah, that question surprises me as well. To me, it seems like Rob finally is going to lynch me but first wants to know my "flavor name".

I wish that someone could get prodded and replaced so we would have a chance to actually think this through rather than either no-lynch or rush-lynch a townie (i.e. myself).

I never wanted to have to claim my role because I was hoping that scum would try to shoot me later and have it fail.

Who all here think that Rob14 is town or null? If you do, why?

[2 718281828459]

Seriously though, like you seemingly completely ignore the conversation and ask a flavor question sight before the deadline. That sounds like someone who just wants to get a lynch in and wants the flavor name to not die with me.

Rob, I will reconsider if you can give a credible reason why a legit scumhunter would want to do as you just did in 446.