Micro 825: Only YOU Can Prevent Forest Fires VIII GAME OVER
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I think 1 pyro also balances things?My favorite site mod is Zor Tester.
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I realized that in the case where there is only 4 yous, pyro could potentially run the strategy of hunting all yous instead. That would also result in game. Note this is different from hunting forests since some YOU is public knowledge after shooting.
(i.e. in a night scenario, 5 people are alive: {smokey, you, forrest, forrest, pyro}, and a you is outted (presumably from shooting to get to the night phase), pyro should choose to shoot you.- DrDolittle
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running a random simulation under the following rules:
YOU kills randomly only among the alive players that are not YOU, FOREST, or SMOKEY if SMOKEY has killed already.
PYRO only hunts for forests (if some YOU shot, or smokey killed, pyro doesn't kill them)
The YOU that makes the first kill continues making kills (irrelephant's suggestion)
PYRO gets a final shot if no PYRO is alive.
[So we are assuming a very civil town...]
2/2/1/4 gives pyro advantage of 0.575.
1/2/1/5 gives pyro advantage of 0.742 (significantly less than I anticipated)
2/2/2/3 gives pyro advantage of 0.509 (so smokey is better than you in EV, I guess)
1/1/1/6 gives pyro advantage of 0.501 (almost fair)
However, 1/1/1/6, games last 1.025 days on average, while 2/2/1/4, games last for 1.65 days on average. Compared to the baseline, 1/2/1/5 games last 1.60 days (so 2/2/1/4 and 1/2/1/5 is roughly indistinguishable).
Here's some (poorly written) matlab code in case you want to run the simulation yourselves. To change the ratio, simply move the numbers 1 to 9 between the 4 groups of forest, pyro, smokey, and you.
Spoiler: code- DrDolittle
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I was always curious on this point: if you are YOU but someone else prevented first, and the first preventer wants you dead. Would it be better for you to prevent before he could do so?My favorite site mod is Zor Tester.
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The problem with this is that B isn't a confirmed YOU, so them saying that they want to prevent C doesn't prove that they can.In post 87, DrDolittle wrote:doesnt this argument go down a slippery slope? If A wants to prevent B, and B is willing to prevent C, then C should prevent before B, before A- DrDolittle
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I bet it gives you different results depending on the number of YOUs remaining.My favorite site mod is Zor Tester.
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