Micro 829: The Coalition [Endgame]

[Skygazer]

HEAL: Aubrey

also hi Chara!

[skitter30]

Aubrey's getting a minor townread. maybe a step below elephant.

holding off on aslightrain until i see more because they have

that

posting style.

HEAL: Aubrey
HURT: elephant
sorry guys, really really tired. see you all tomorrow!

also hi Skygazer! :>

when you're less tired can you explain how your irrel read changed in between these posts?

also for people tr'ing chara can you explain why? i don't really feel like i've seen much ai from them

[Chara]

i'm still here!
my read on elephant didn't change per se, but i decided the early townread wasn't good enough for my coalition. i added elephant to it on page 1 to see what was what.
more posting on the subject of elephant is also making me reconsider the strength of the read.
most importantly, Aubrey beat him out for dominance.

[Chara]

ok that makes sense and i think this is a workable idea

i don't agree with this idea.
grabbing 5 players out of 9, probability says there's going to be scum. using it as a "cop" does absolutely nothing. because the results are: town wins the game, or we don't win and now we know scum are in the group. i'd rather just try to win, and if we fail now we know for certain that only one scum, maximum, could be in the remaining 4.

trying for anything less than a 100% town coalition is going to skew our information, anyway.
i read no lunch's suggestion as more like "don't use shaky townreads in your coalition, use easy to read players so we can be more sure they're town."

[Chara]

it's curious that i like a lot of no lunch's rhetoric, but not what relates to elephant.
85 deserves more than i'll give right now since lunch asked, but i'll say i don't really agree with it.
that said, i do see the issues with townreading elephant, and they have to do with his style. it's more than elephant isn't doing anything scummy, but he also isn't doing anything scum who's being careful can't do.
Aubrey, i'd say is being towny in his manner and reactions. and i like 96.

and on a second pass, i might actually like lightrain noting something odd in Aubrey/elephant but not knowing what conclusions to make with that.
scum can fencesit when they want to keep their options open. town also do it when they simply aren't sure!
and conversely i don't love how skitter called out the fencesitting. if skitter is scum then she'd also be the kind of harder to catch scum (like elephant, for example) that uses good logic that is objectively correct enough to be more difficult to pick apart.

and scum are paying more attention to their posting to make sure it has as few weak points as possible, while town are usually not.

[Chara]

i guess that post was more ideas on theory than any real conclusions besides Aubrey town.


skitter, why did you ask me that question in 101? i'd like to know your thought process.

[Chara]

well. lightrain town too.
Gamma very very light town only on gut and feeling natural. Aubrey's all i want in my coalition right now, though.
this woke me up. gross, i need to sleep.

if someone thinks i'm too sensitive to efforting because i think (elephant said this too) that scum are going to be trying very hard this day phase, feel free to say so. it's possible.
night!

[skitter30]

i kinda read no lunch's idea more as: if the coalition fails we'd at least be able to read the people in it

like i understood it more as a plan to help town in late-game in case it fails since in the first iteration of this setup when people failed to pass a coalition they just lynched people in it (who were incidentally hard-to-read players and so town lost the game)

idk i haven't overthought it super much. i want to put in people i townread, and townread strongly at that

my main concern is that in a game this size idk if i'll townread 4 other people *that* strongly by the end of the day

p-edit i haven't read your intervening posts yet

[skitter30]

and on a second pass, i might actually like lightrain noting something odd in Aubrey/elephant but not knowing what conclusions to make with that.
scum can fencesit when they want to keep their options open. town also do it when they simply aren't sure!
and conversely i don't love how skitter called out the fencesitting. if skitter is scum then she'd also be the kind of harder to catch scum (like elephant, for example) that uses good logic that is objectively correct enough to be more difficult to pick apart.

ye that's basically how i play scum
i didn't like the fence-sitting followed by the self-vote

like they found somethign they didn't like but used their vote for something trivial

[skitter30]

i guess that post was more ideas on theory than any real conclusions besides Aubrey town.


skitter, why did you ask me that question in 101? i'd like to know your thought process.

cuz i hadn't really felt like i had much of a read on you either way but i remembered that you were townreading irrel kinda highly (the strength of which had also surprised me) so i was wondering what changed in between and i figured i could use that to start a convo with you

[Skygazer]

skitter hasnt accused me of being scum yet

HURT: skitter

[skitter30]

i don't think you've done much ai + i don't think think i can read you super well after sneks

[Aubrey]

the self vote seemed more goofy funny to me than anything. I see no scum motive behind it.

[Skygazer]

@aslightrain: if you had to pick three players that you think are never scum, who would they be and why?

[Skygazer]

im not SRing the self vote but i got light scum pings from other stuff in AST's third post

[Skygazer]

HEAL: gamma

[Skygazer]

im not actually SRing skitter

thought she'd react to me instahealing her but i didnt rlly get anything so

thats null for now

[no lunch]

My suggestion flows both ways, Chara and skitter30.

If we focus on players who are easier to read but also appear towny, we are more likely to have a successful coalition day one. But if it does fail, then we won't have as hard a time deciphering where we went wrong (as opposed to Wisdom in the former running, who steamrolled the town by sheer post count and effort).

Effectively the tentotomy of the coalition isn't as valuable as it seems. Lynching up the coalition will lose town the game, if scum have played well and sit at the most town-looking person on the coalition.

[no lunch]

Aubrey's getting a minor townread. maybe a step below elephant.

holding off on aslightrain until i see more because they have

that

posting style.

HEAL: Aubrey
HURT: elephant
sorry guys, really really tired. see you all tomorrow!

also hi Skygazer! :>

when you're less tired can you explain how your irrel read changed in between these posts?

also for people tr'ing chara can you explain why? i don't really feel like i've seen much ai from them

i'm still here!
my read on elephant didn't change per se, but i decided the early townread wasn't good enough for my coalition. i added elephant to it on page 1 to see what was what.
more posting on the subject of elephant is also making me reconsider the strength of the read.
most importantly, Aubrey beat him out for dominance.

I am not sure what you mean here. You defined your townread on Aubrey as weaker than Irrelephant11 but concede that Aubrey is more likely town than him?

AndI don't believe I know you Skygazer. Except if you play off-site. Perhaps approach me privately post-game if you have strong suspicions that we've met?

[Chara]

read on Aubrey was weaker at post 83. post 99, coincidentally, happened after the post from Aubrey that i liked.

[Chara]

i've now been asked about this twice. at some point i have to wonder if you read the intervening posts between 83 and 99. because i sure did, and oddly enough they affected both of my reads. ;>

[Chara]

i don't think both of you are, but i do have to wonder if one of no lunch and skitter saw a read change and saw an opportunity to find some kind of contradiction?
skitter's answer in 109 does make sense.

[skitter30]

HEAL: gamma

what are you liking about gamma?

i've now been asked about this twice. at some point i have to wonder if you read the intervening posts between 83 and 99. because i sure did, and oddly enough they affected both of my reads. ;>

i mean, yes, i understood that the intervening posts affected your reads; i was more wondering which/why they affected your reads

i don't think both of you are, but i do have to wonder if one of no lunch and skitter saw a read change and saw an opportunity to find some kind of contradiction?
skitter's answer in 109 does make sense.

not really looking for contradictions; more like i found a thread to poke at to start a convo

[Skygazer]

what are you liking about gamma?

the way he flipped suddenly on no lunch then flipped back looks like it comes from town, like it shows early townie engagement imo

[Chara]

yes, in retrospect it's more 118 that gave me the possible feeling.

what did you think of my answer?