Micro 845: The Room Odds - Game Over

[BNL]

Vote Count 2.6

Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul
Persivul (1): Flavor Leaf
Plotinus (1): Dunnstral
Dunnstral (1): Plotinus

Not Voting (3): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Something_Smart

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The deadline is 7 February 4am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-02-07 04:00:00)

Rooms and Post Restictions

Persivul, Flavor Leaf ((expired on 2019-02-04 21:13:22))

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus ((expired on 2019-02-04 01:59:20))

Plotinus, Something_Smart

Spoiler: Day 1

Plotinus, Flavor Leaf
Something Smart, tris
Gamma Emerald, Clemency
Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral
Nancy Drew 39, Clemency
Plotinus, tris
Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf

Get a Room

Dunnstral, Something_Smart (1): Something_Smart

Not Voting (5): Clemency, Plotinus, Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Infractions

Nancy Drew 39: 3
Plotinus: 2

Mod notes:

[Nancy Drew 39]

Vote Count 2.5

Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul
Persivul (1): Flavor Leaf
Plotinus (1): Dunnstral
Dunnstral (1): Plotinus

Not Voting (3): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Something_Smart

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The deadline is 7 February 4am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-02-07 04:00:00)

Rooms and Post Restictions

Persivul, Flavor Leaf ((expired on 2019-02-04 21:13:22))

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus ((expired on 2019-02-04 01:59:20))

Plotinus, Something_Smart

Spoiler: Day 1

Plotinus, Flavor Leaf
Something Smart, tris
Gamma Emerald, Clemency
Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral
Nancy Drew 39, Clemency
Plotinus, tris
Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf

Get a Room

Not Voting (6): Clemency, Plotinus, Something_Smart, Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Infractions

Nancy Drew 39: 3
Plotinus: 2

Mod notes:
Persivul and Flavor Leaf have gotten a Room

Nancy Drew 39 has lost her room vote

What does that mean? @mod?

And how long is that in effect?

[BNL]

You can't vote for people to get Rooms until the end of the Day

[Nancy Drew 39]

You can't vote for people to get Rooms until the end of the Day

Okay thanks, I’ll try to do better in the future - assuming I live.

[Plotinus]

Dunnstral, I have been thinking that if you're scum then you're most likely paired with Clemency for a while now. I have a chart but I'm not sure I can post it while I'm post restricted, but all my roommates have seen it.

I mentiond this in private in a few places but I don't mind talking about it in public.

On this setup, if you are scum and you aren't paired with your most likely buddy, then you want to keep that person alive in case you get lynched, right?

So suppose Dunnstral is scum, but not with Flavor Leaf. In that case, he wants to keep Flavor Leaf alive because after Dunnstral is lynched we might go after Flavor Leaf instead of his real buddy, Clemency.
Or suppose Persivul is scum but not with Flavor Leaf either, well then he too wants to keep Flavor Leaf alive to protect his real buddy, Clemency.
Or suppose Clemency is scum and paying attention, which is doubtful, then same deal, he wants to keep me alive because I'm his most likely partner, and the suspicion will fall on me instead of his real buddy, Dunnstral.

And so on down the list. Everyone has someone they are most likely to be scum with, but there's at least a 2/3 chance that you're not scum with the person you're most likely to be scum with.

So for the nightkill, you don't want to kill someone you could frame as being scum with your buddy. So who was tris least likely to be scum with? Dunn and Clemency. So if that's the scumteam, then tris is never going to be framed as either of their buddies, she's vaguely townread and she was asking lots of questions.


Well some of my roommates have some arguments about why Dunn might be town that I'm listening to -- not wholly convinced, but listening anyway., and I liked that Dunn has brought out the math because it's the first time I can really understand where he's coming from. And some of my roommates have some arguments about why Persivul might be town which I'm listening to but it's a harder sell.

The only thing I have in support of Clemency is that it seems too easy.

VOTE: Clemency

[Clemency]

What is your take on both SS and Persival having very similar reactions to my VCA theory?

dont like em

[Clemency]

oh plot's voting me
didn't expect that

[Plotinus]

If you want to make your own chart, copy the one in the rules, but put actual names instead of letters so you can read it, and remove the dead people. Adjust the totals accordingly.

pedit: Clemency, mainly because you've not been doing anything. i see that you are doing a few things right now so keep those up, maybe you can change my mind!

[Clemency]

i mean that's kind of a hard case to refute since it's based 99% on other people's interactions towards me
i'm just gonna see how this unfolds

[Clemency]

oh didn't see your post now

[Clemency]

sorry i've totally overgamed myself so i've become equally useless everywhere
lesson learned tbh
i might replace out of some i can't keep up on

[Nancy Drew 39]

You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.

Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.

Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections

I townread Dunn for this. Dunn is either deflector or trying to draw the NK. It makes 0 sense for scum!Dunn to do this because then he’d have to keep explaining why he’s still alive.

[Nancy Drew 39]

This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.

And this:

Deflector should protect one of Ruby red/

Tris

ty

No roleblocker or strongman, makes extremely unlikely Dunn is scum in this game.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Nancy
Dunn
Flavor

SS
Clemency
Persivul

[Nancy Drew 39]

You’re right, gambler’s fallacy was the wrong term.

I’m just saying even if something has a 1% chance, there’s always the chance that could have been the one picked. It’s a raffle, and some people bought more tickets.

If you are completely off put, vote for the person with the higher chance statistically of being scum, sure. I’m town with the slot that had the highest chances, though, so I don’t necessarily agree with that path.

@Nancy - I was playing with the mindset there was 1 scum off the wagon for the purpose of being off of it, which is why I was pushing for Clemency as scum.

Yeah, if scum is offwagon, then I townread you and Plotinus over Clemency.

I think for today though, I prefer to lynch the very likely scum who wad ONwagon, since I’m far more certain that at least one scum was onwagon than off rn.

What do you make of both SS and Persivul having very similar reactions to my VCA read?

@Dunn, I’d like your thoughts on this as well. Thanks.

Note that plurality lynch is in effect, but it would have roleblocked our power role. Those off wagon people, do they still look so towny?
Reread the relevant sections

I townread Dunn for this. Dunn is either deflector or trying to draw the NK. It makes 0 sense for scum!Dunn to do this because then he’d have to keep explaining why he’s still alive.

Actually, nm, I misread this.

[Persivul]

Applying the Plotinus translator:

pedit: Clemency, mainly because you've not been doing anything.

You're not here following my lead, so I might as well lynch you and take a big fat 10 out of my personal probability.

i see that you are doing a few things right now so keep those up, maybe you can change my mind!

But if you come back and follow me like a good boy, I'll keep you alive!

[Clemency]

i always love it when people do associatives with me

[Nancy Drew 39]

This mechanic is uberfrustrating. I was in the process of typing a really insightful response to Persivul and then realized I couldn’t. *sigh*

[Persivul]

Ooh, insightful...I don't know, but I don't think you can top

VCA never lies

.

[BNL]

Vote Count 2.7

Flavor Leaf (1): Persivul
Persivul (1): Flavor Leaf
Plotinus (1): Dunnstral
Clemency (1): Plotinus

Not Voting (3): Clemency, Nancy Drew 39, Something_Smart

With 7 players alive, it takes 4 to lynch.
The deadline is 7 February 4am UTC-4, or in (expired on 2019-02-07 04:00:00)

Rooms and Post Restictions

Persivul, Flavor Leaf ((expired on 2019-02-04 21:13:22))

Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus ((expired on 2019-02-04 01:59:20))

Plotinus, Something_Smart

Spoiler: Day 1

Plotinus, Flavor Leaf
Something Smart, tris
Gamma Emerald, Clemency
Persivul, Gamma Emerald, Dunnstral
Nancy Drew 39, Clemency
Plotinus, tris
Something_Smart, Flavor Leaf

Get a Room

Dunnstral, Something_Smart (1): Something_Smart

Not Voting (5): Clemency, Plotinus, Persivul, Flavor Leaf, Dunnstral

It takes 2n-1 votes to get a n player Room.

Infractions

Nancy Drew 39: 3
Plotinus: 2

Mod notes:

[Nancy Drew 39]

Ooh, insightful...I don't know, but I don't think you can top

VCA never lies

.

[Something_Smart]

VOTE: Clemency

[Flavor Leaf]

I’ll go Clemency today. I’m gonna wait until post restriction is done.

[Plotinus]

Now that my post restriction's over, here's a heatmap of current pairings

[BNL]

Nancy Drew 39 and Plotinus's post restrictions have expired