Regarding the Robert kill, neither of us were pushing on him before his VT claim.
Very shortly after Robert claims VT, I start blasting him, calling him the most suspicious person in the thread, and making it very clear that I only wanted to vote Robert that day (even over AoC, who up until that point I had been pushing pretty hard on)
There are basically two useful strategies when it comes to a mafia who is getting a lot of pressure.
Either the mafia decides to sac themselves to out the relevant PR, or the mafia claims VT and it essentially becomes the number one goal of the mafia team to NOT have that person just immediately die.
R_M explained why pretty well here:
In post 414, RationalMadman wrote:
Only someone who genuinely believed that claiming Vanilla was a great bluff which would get the bandwagon away from Robert would recommend doing this. Vander is very experienced, he'd almost 100% recommend Robert to CC Seer because what you (AoC) don't understand and I now understand you weren't pretending to not understand earlier, is that if Scum doesn't CC Seer, Town is likely to still eliminate the Vanilla claim that they already did scumread anyway, in order to protect PR-outing risk.
Furthermore, what you
is that the strategy of Mafia, more so than Town, in a setup like this, needs to be defensive and built around worst-case scenarios. Town had 9/25 shot at pure physical autowin on Day 2 (3/5 chance Vanilla dies at night multiplied by 3/5 chance that Seer investigated non-Cop living Vanilla or the last Werewolf) which would instead be 0/25 had Robert CC'd Seer.
Furthermore, that 9/25 is not the full probability of how bad the situation was for Scum. If on Day 2, the 11/25 happens, the Scum is still severely screwed because there's almost definitely one Townie (in this case myself) that is too blatantly Town to lose to scum in the 2-way let alone 3-way which we would typically have here. Unfortunately the scenario that absolutely guaranteed Werewolf evened-game probability to win happened; the Seer died (there is one other way this works out for scum, if Cop died and the Seer investigated the Cop, that helps Scum practically just as much since Seer will have to out this day phase or risk being successfully CC'd by WW on Day Phase 3 regardless.
Do I think Vander would encourage Robert to land Vander into 9/25 probability autoloss on DP2 if Robert gets eliminated vs 0/25 chance if Robert claims Seer? No. Do I think you would? Yes. Do I think the Hydra would? No.
Do I think that Robert, on his own, took the initative to do that without consulting his partner? Possibly, which is the only thing I hesitate(d) about scumreading you based on after Robert's flip. However, everything Vander and the Hydra did towards the end of the DP1 implied they would love to get rid of Robert rather than risk anyone else outing, you implied the opposite.
In post 411, Agent of Chaos wrote: In post 407, RationalMadman wrote:The Hydra was agitated with Enchant for unvoting Robert and tried to develop a case for Enchant being scum if Robert flips town, towards the ending of the Day Phase where there'd be no real point in doing so as a scum oartner of Robert, especially not when the Hudra themselves votes Robert over myself and encourages others to push.
Looks like bussing to me.
In post 412, Agent of Chaos wrote:Not the kind of bussing where you create a crowd to TERMINATE your partner, but where you join an already created crowd which is likely going to TERMIANTE your partner anyways.
See my answer to above.
As soon as Robert claimed VT and the pressure started dying down on him, I commit very heavily to the idea of flipping Robert.
Both Xi and I are casting suspicion on other people (unfortunately incorrectly in my case) but I, unlike Xi, at no point even entertain the idea of not flipping Robert.
We both started pushing to kill Robert after his VT claim but I don't think it's even remotely close which of us was more instrumental to killing Robert.
R_M deserves the initial credit but before Xi casts a vote on Robert, you have all of the posts I quoted where I talk about Robert being suspicious.
There is a very big difference between my hypothetical decision to start hard bussing Robert at that stage of the game in a situation where momentum really was dying down on Robert and there was a seemingly real chance he would survive, and Xi's decision to do it when there is one additional town (me) who was pushing on him as hard as I was.
I believe it's much more clear that Robert was going down after I started pushing on him than before since essentially the only difference between Xi's and my scum perspectives is the amount I started pushing on him.
