Micro 1041: Geriatric F11 [Postgame]

[joqiza]

308 does make me a bit nervous it feels tonally awkward and might've been setting up an excuse to get off the Dwlee wagon but idk.

[joqiza]

Yeah I think Roadkill's D2 is stronger overall. If he's scum he chose to bus Dwlee with his whole chest despite town sort of motioning in different directions at times. Sleepless didn't waver either ofc but hard to give points for that given he was the main counterwagon D2 and didn't really have the same option like Roadkill did to push elsewhere.

Kind of think scum!Roadkill could have just killed Sleepless and then bringing Looker/Andante to F5 feels like a win for them. Like just follow behind Umlaut to Sleepless, kill Umlaut or myself, and then you have F5 with Dwlee/RK/Looker/Andante/ let's say me for the 5th, a bit tough to see town limming correctly twice from there given Looker's and my own suspicion of Andante and Andante's suspicion of Looker. I mean obv you don't know who re-evals after a town!SA flip but you only need one towny to vote wrong once you hit limlo. Seems like great equity, a bit of a strange tactical choice to keep bussing if that does end up being the team tbh.

[joqiza]

Actually there is 366 so perhaps Roadkill was considering that very switch.

[joqiza]

I still like 390, that's just a good post.

It;s 1am for me so I'm going to bed now, guess we'll be wrapping this up tomorrow. until then GL and there's one more chance to bring the thunder ig as you can see I'm kind of a mess at this stuff.

[Sleepless Assassin]

Bro Roadkill idk if I'm ever getting there man like legit d1 SA was only interested in voting Dwlee and when the choice between Three/Esther came up as compromise wagons he was like "yeah Three agrees with me that Dwlee needs to die so not interested" instead the only compromise he was really willing to entertain was the person who wrote 194.

I won't vote Looker. I want Dwelee and can compromise on Mc Esther. I'm not against voting Three but would rather Dwelee or Mc Esther.

I can't wrap my head around WHY, like yes granted if he endgames me then it worked I guess but goddamn.

Yeah this right here should know I had no motives on my early reads outside of "here is who I think has the best chance of being scum". If I was scum with Dwlee and saw that post, felt Dwlee wasn't viable, wouldn't it make perfect sense to preserve Mc Esther's life, keep pushing Dwlee, and be happy to see Three die right away? Why bother with Mc Esther? I know there were accusations that I figured Mc Esther for cop, but I don't see how. I even explained how Mc Esther being cop seemed to make zero sense. Sure, I was wrong. But it's in record what my thought process was. Real fluid reads and thoughts are in the thread. That's hard to fake.

To post 618, but were they the only wagons and scum cross bussing? They also had a third scum. It just feels like it would be a suicidal plan to let it play out like that. I mean I'm here so maybe not, but I can't see it being a comfortable way to play. If I was scum with Dwlee I almost think I'd have to open Day 2 with some big re-read and re-evaluation and a vote on Looker or someone just hoping we survive the day.

308 does make me a bit nervous it feels tonally awkward and might've been setting up an excuse to get off the Dwlee wagon but idk.

Nah it should be clear I wasn't going to jump off. That post was more about Andante than anything. If Dwlee had flipped town and I turned out to be wrong, I'd have liked to look back at that and wondered about Andante. I should have remembered it when we eliminated Andante though. That post should have shown Andante was town in hindsight.

I'm on vacation in Florida as of last night but will try to check in a few times today.

[joqiza]

I'm prolly just gonna hammer around 6 or 7 my time (CST). That should give me some time to apply my clown makeup

If anyone has any final thoughts lmk now I guess

[Sleepless Assassin]

I don't think there's a whole lot without repeating myself. Everything is out there. It's really just use your best judgement.

[catboi]

Vote Count 4.06

Sleepless Assassin (1):

Roadkill (0)

Roadkill (1):

Sleepless Assassin (2)

Not Voting (1):

joqiza (9)

With 3 alive, it's 2 to eliminate.

Note:

Numbers next to names indicate post count in the current 24 hour cycle. Players are allowed up to 15 posts in the 24 hour period preceding a deadline.

Deadline for Day 4 is February 23 at 12:00 AM EST.

Deadline Timer:

(expired on 2022-02-23 01:00:00)

Reserve Posts Used

joqiza (1)

[joqiza]

me doing my pre-hammer ritual dance to appease the mafia gods

[Roadkill]

i just, got off work recently

i don't know what else i could say to matter but i am here

what other words can i say

switching to sleepless wasn't ... something on my mind as an active want but i don't like to bully through games when there are so many people (i am sorry if i bullied somehow by voting when i did, i know, that it is stressful), so it was a compromise i did not want but it is a team game

[Roadkill]

i'm also, sorry for getting emotional i don't like to do it but i do it's just

... i don't want to use the word upsetting, to be told that... the reads that i came onto were not as ... meaningful maybe because i was going through mafia's words and that it was all... careful? it... bothered me a lot because then it is... what is the point of reading the dead at all, the things they say cannot all be... as careful as they want? if that makes sense

this bothered me a lot in particular and i wanted, to try and explain where the feeling was coming from a bit so you could understand

[Roadkill]

i really appreciate you, at least looking back through things

[Roadkill]

most of my other thoughts now are... garbling together, so, i am here if you need, anything

(it will not be my best work but it will be)

[joqiza]

i mean if you're town then you came to the correct answer through your process. i wasn't trying to invalidate it just explaining why fmpov i don't feel the case convinced me.

like for instance if we look at 250 then, in some sense, putting SA in their scumreads but not wanting to vote them on d1 seems partnered. at the same time though the whole post just feels WIFOMy and crafted with intentionality.

if i say, "SA put Dwlee at significant risk of elimination on Day 1 before the cop was outed" that feels like, an action that Dwlee would have more difficulty working in their favor if SA is their partner, compared to like... just the placement of names in their list of scumreads

[Roadkill]

i... disagree, that it is wifomy, because i stare at it and see... obvious ? i guess to me it is obvious but not you, but it is...

it is straightforward, in my eyes: dwlee does not want, to jump onto three to not look so survival oriented, to seem curious when their iso is decidedly not curious and is... there, a presence, but the reads are all town reads at the top without, a lot of meat. something there

and then the teams, it isn't... i guess it boils down to i Know what i am and you do not but it is simply that dwlee does not want to danger sleepless, but they do not want to protect them at all because of their dynamic, so instead it is to neatly place sleepless within the realm of "i do not like" while... positioning two town-people to die, there is no wifom, it is a place of safety for a partner that doesn't look like it to begin with.

[Roadkill]

i think sleepless had a hunch of my prness and was trying to get a confirmation when he asked whether i'd rather self-hammer than vote dwlee (as in, i think he's maf pr-hunting). imo, most vanilla townies just answer "yes" there, where most prs very much wouldnt. i considered just, lying, but that seemed like a great way to have my wagon build further; not that it ultimately mattered. sleepless/three and sleepless/looker are both very coherent teams imo, so this is very much my top scumread after those two. sleepless/looker kinda seem to collectively be trying to frustrate compromise options, ive already mentioned that looker supports exclusively nonviable wagons; sleepless is less overt in this, but he stuck on the dwlee wagon a while after it was made very clear that it's simply nonviable.

ik a few people have andante down as hard-town, im very mixed on this. joqiza is entirely correct to note that her reads just, dont bear much relationship to the thread in full context. i already said earlier that she kept a vote on me long after her primary reason ("three was obviously joking") was explicitly disproven. she also kept saying i was scum with looker because i wouldnt vote him -- after sleepless had explicitly said that he wouldnt vote looker, while i had previously voted looker and stated i was okay with the deadline looker wagon. if she's town, she is not living up to looker's positive assessment of her. this doesnt make her maf, and i'll admit, towards the beginning of the day, i had a moderate townread on her because she's a long way removed from her coalition scumgame -- not just in that she's more active, but also in that her reads are a lot more reasoned (well, "reasoned") through. obviously on some level im just mad here, and eh i shouldnt be, i made questionable play decisions to dodge the night kill, those decisions got me wagoned. but fuck im mad.

umlaut kinda seems like he's trying to pocket me in a few places, but i think im just paranoid. hard to say.

joqiza and dwlee are both in this weird "theyre kinda null but i think theyre town?" space for me. hard to describe. i think a lot of people have the null-town "hasnt said much but i guess e-1 was townie" read on roadkill, i very much echo that.

looker and three have been discussed ad nauseum.

Wait...so my suggestions are viable after all?

I'm open to Roadkill, Sleepless Assassin, or Umlaut

Let's go with VOTE: Sleepless!
And I never got an answer for this

Why are my suggestions not viable

Would it even be beneficial for scum to try to run up post cap counts by asking questions that have already been answered?

p-edit: It makes him seem angry to me if he was serious.

Sleepless tried to rush the deadline and put esther at e-1 without saying

I could see a Sleepless launch, but I think it was pretty clear in context that the vote on Esther was E-1 so "not saying" is not really in itself a big deal.

and it is important to not put sleepless in danger as these are the posts immediately preceding that reads list.

[Roadkill]

Oh right, you posted that chart on the last page.

I was interested in seeing whether Andante would be willing to follow me onto Sleepless given that

I want Looker/Sleepless today

which was part of why it was "interesting" -- a couple of people who are otherwise at odds have said Sleepless is a launch candidate for them, so I wanted to see who would actually vote them if they became a plausible wagon. But pretty much no one followed me there so I can't get anything from that.

Even though I've kind of tipped my hand, I will still put this out there explicitly: Andante, I am much more interested in launching Sleepless than Looker atm, so why not join me there? Looker is going to be a hard sell for you.

Will hammer Dwlee if it comes down to it.

Looker, do you read Sleeper as town now? Weren't they formerly on your would-yeet list?

Looking at the VC the obvious candidate here is Andante? It's kind of

too

obvious in that I feel like Andante was giving a full-throated defense of Dwlee and not some sort of "gee I'd rather go somewhere else." I mean, something something WIFOM but that is a tough thing for scum to do with a partner who is not making themselves easy to defend.

I guess another possibility is that SA and Dwlee wagons were

both

scum, but I haven't thought at all about how viable a pair that is.

I guess it isn't helpful for me to just sit here and wait for the end of the day, so I will comment on another player after all.

There was a point d1 where I mentioned I couldn't find a partner for Dwlee and SA said something along the lines of "I actually agree with you, but it's a D2 conversation." You've got to imagine that a scum player hellbussing on D1 is looking to set up the necessary mis-eliminations down the line, i.e. trying to find people to tie to their partner. SA wasn't doing anything like that, just seemed to be trying to noose Dwlee.

Actually, while I think this is a pretty reasonable argument against Dwlee/SA, I wouldn't call it conclusive. I can imagine a scenario where scum!SA just isn't thinking about who specifically he intends to push as Dwlee's partner after that flip, or if he does think about it decides it doesn't really matter as long as we believe it isn't him; in short, a scum!SA whose entire MO is just to look town and let the rest take care of itself. So if it came down to final 3 with SA in it I'd still have to consider him a yeet candidate.

to read over umlaut this is perhaps the best reason now i can think of that umlaut dies: because umlaut has given the most... "real" stance against SA throughout the game, where i think that both, you and i were erring towards the idea that sleepless does not do such a thing, bus as he did, but umlaut was more... open to it, in the sense that his thoughts were there as more than just conceptual: i will reconsider all options if alive, which would include sleepless as well

[joqiza]

how would you characterize sleepless's play in the f3 fypov? i think reviewing the f3 is the last thing i want to do before i place the hammer.

i see your argument on 250 i guess it just feels weird for dwlee/sleepless to bus as hard as they did and yet have dwlee fail this level 1 distancing check. if that's the team they must have specifically wanted dwlee but NOT sleepless to flip.

[Roadkill]

i...

to me, it is...

the before does not matter as much what was said until i vote, but the before i guess feels... option-open, in that, the reasons are not ... good, it is. "a hard game", "the simplest explanation is that he played a good game", it is not ... at the beginning as much but it does become more but even then it is... i guess, to me i read as 'scared' but not quite, nervous, unsure of which way will go left and right and end up in the right place but the after i vote to me, is...

i have, to sleepless, given him the answer if he is town: i am mafia trying to kill him, as he is not dead from you voting him. he now knows there is... an entire game of answers before him that he can use to defend, to push, justify, to bring me down if he wanted to do so but there is not... excitement there?

to me it was, an "oh!!!" moment, to see everything that i didn't before, but sleepless does not offer this sort of thing, it is the relief of "oh this is easy", as in, i have now taken out the... the impetus? to post and pretend, and he is swift to defend himself to you: here is why i did what i did (recreate meta) and here is why dwlee and i wouldn't do this, but it is not... referential to /me/ except "well they just could not kill themselves" but there is no picking through beyond "umlaut is town" to see what umlaut was thinking or doing or anything, it is all... "do you really think that two wagons happen on scum really? also i was super worried about roadkill, he was so towny he did not die but now i am okay to say it!" it is just...

there is no /action/ taken to push more and more just, oh you silly joqiza, look at this? do you see why this would not happen? of course i will answer your questions when you ask but there is no motivation to dig into what is now a treasure trove of things for me i will just be here and answer you, the town, and that is all

(i know sleepless is on vacation but there has been more time, since that moment, that has only been... answers and the defense of self)

(...this sounds mean to write of sleepless's play like this so... reductive but it is simplest way for me to explain)

[Roadkill]

I don't think there's a whole lot without repeating myself. Everything is out there. It's really just use your best judgement.

i guess it is, just this, this boils down

there is so much more now for him to see that would not be repeating, and yet he will not take up the burden, when it should not be a burden at all to now have the answers

(and, it is ... to me the brusque logical cool stone wall when i was... upset)

(and to not... challenge things being said for fear of stirring)

[Roadkill]

how would you characterize sleepless's play in the f3 fypov? i think reviewing the f3 is the last thing i want to do before i place the hammer.

i see your argument on 250 i guess it just feels weird for dwlee/sleepless to bus as hard as they did and yet have dwlee fail this level 1 distancing check. if that's the team they must have specifically wanted dwlee but NOT sleepless to flip.

and to answer this, i think...

it is a lot simpler than we want to think when it comes to mafia, in that mafia are always ahead, on top of plans and playing perfectly, but there is... no perfect player, perfect games perhaps but things... the cracks happen

and i suppose it was not so bad that... it was not even noticed until this late, that sort of list, because in reality it was not a traditional list at all, it was mired in associatives which are... i feel it is a lot different of a defense than putting names down in tiers where our eyes go to the middle high and middle low to see who is just outside of reach? it is this person is not with this person or that person and it is by one less person that this person is not at the bottom of my bucket, a scrap, and that doesn't look... look like much of anything in the moment

[Roadkill]

(sorry, if i am rambling, my sadness has somewhat....

...turned into righteousness? not quite that not as strong, melting gold)

[joqiza]

i know i said i'd hammer at 7pm cst but i'm gonna delay that a bit. we're taking this game to overtime

what would you say the sleepless/dwlee plan is on d1 prior to mc esther being outed? would scum!sleepless have been sure that dwlee wouldn't be limmed, and if dwlee did get limmed... what were they going to do next?

sorry if i'm asking you to do all the legwork. these are the "sticking points" for me that i can't figure out

[Roadkill]

i know i said i'd hammer at 7pm cst but i'm gonna delay that a bit. we're taking this game to overtime

what would you say the sleepless/dwlee plan is on d1 prior to mc esther being outed? would scum!sleepless have been sure that dwlee wouldn't be limmed, and if dwlee did get limmed... what were they going to do next?

sorry if i'm asking you to do all the legwork. these are the "sticking points" for me that i can't figure out

i do not have a perfect answer to this or something that does not also make me... confused on the choices but i think, that it was pre-determined to bus and push and there was not so much fear that a hammer would come down wildly after... the beginning? when dwlee was closest to death there was no real push over the edge, it... it hangs and dissolves because no one takes the final step to get it there, and then it fades in and out

i think that absolute worst case it is, they have to guess and claim whichever pr does not exist, which is a gamble but also one that could work if they really needed dwlee to live, but... post mc esther it is a lot clearer the intent? they have the answer (unless mc gambled as well), and they claim the other PR and get an extra day while keeping the work of bussing. i think perhaps the setup being as it did had some influence on the before but, it is... this is the hardest part to swallow to be so... bold about it? but perhaps in a slower game there is the... feeling that people will think more, and do less

[joqiza]

Gonna hammer in an hour probs. Tough game. Maybe the toughest i've ever played