Micro 21: Bird 7P GAME OVER

FuDuzn · Post Post #100 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:49 am

Emp, I was taking it as you felt that we needed to out the doc to win. And I answered in ways that showed that going forward the odds are better if we don't out the cop. But yes you are probably correct, if scum is at L-1 then they most likely claim doc. Which I guess somewhat renders my idea useless since it would be difficult to keep the doc hidden.

Zach, I was going off the assumption that if scum is lynched toDay and the doc is killed at Night then with three unknowns Tomorrow it would be a 33% chance of hitting scum. If somehow the doc could stay hidden(which I guess is almost impossible) and gets a scuccessful save then there would be two confirmed townies so a 50% chance of hitting scum, even if the doc was counter claimed we would have to lynch between docs so again, 50% of hitting scum. Even if he doesn't get a successful kill the he claims and it is again 50% of hitting scum, whether there is a counter claim or not.

So in pretty much all scenarios it would be ideal to keep the doc hidden. But as pointed out by empking it is more or less a moot point because keeping the doc hidden would be extremely tough.

saulres · Post Post #101 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 5:39 pm

This is all nice discussion, and I'm still thinking about the arguments put forth to decide whether or not to support a PR reveal (of course the PR could just reveal himself without everyone's backing I suppose), and I'd still like to hear Scooby's take on it, but while we're arguing it, there's still scum to be found.

Empking

, if you found scooby scummy in 20, why did you vote Carbon instead?

In 63 you said your sudden townread on Carbon was due to his "newb derping"; what made you think it was town newb as compared to scum newb?

FuDuzn

, in reading your posts, I'm finding very little original thought. By that I mean, in several of your posts I see rehashes of arguments made by others, with maybe one line thrown in that adds anything. I see that both in your entry to the Carbon wagon and now in the discussion of whether to "massclaim" or not. Is that your normal style? Do you have a link to a scumgame I could meta you on?

Zach

, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

Scooby

I've already asked one question of and I might have more when he answers.

FuDuzn · Post Post #102 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:02 pm

Not sure how I am rehashing other arguments in regards to the massclaim disscussion, I would like some clarification on that.

But here you go, every game I have been scum in.

http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=83&t=23051
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=22736
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=11&t=21924
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=22111
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=22474
http://forum.mafiascum.net/viewtopic.php?f=52&t=21342

Empking · Post Post #103 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:04 pm

In post 101, saulres wrote:Empking, if you found scooby scummy in 20, why did you vote Carbon instead?

Because I found Carbon scummier. I think scum is simpler to learn than town so town are more likely to newbderp.

scooby · Post Post #104 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:08 am

In post 79, saulres wrote:scooby, why do you keep asking people for their reads without giving any of your own?

I thought I was clear on my suspects since day 1. In post 41, I clearly say that there has to be one scum in the (Empking, carbon, zabriel) derp attacks.

So yeah, Im thinking Empking is scum here.

I have also clearly said that you are likely town here, so I'm FAR from not giving any of my reads.

scooby · Post Post #105 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:13 am

In post 78, Zachrulez wrote:Yeah, massclaim should happen.

Which is all I'll say until we either do so, or establish that we're not mass claiming.

Just for the record, talking about massclaim strategy was a fucking terrible idea. Zach is scummy here for not having reinforced his idea and let this shit happen.

scooby · Post Post #106 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 3:15 am

The doc cant hide in a lylo game where we are about to lynch a scum, since that scum is extremely likely to claim doc to avoid lynch.

So we massclaim now.

scooby · Post Post #107 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:20 am

In fact, Im willing to start. Im vanilla. Next.

scooby · Post Post #108 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:20 am

Empking

Empking · Post Post #109 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:32 am

Vanilla

FuD

FuDuzn · Post Post #110 (ISO) » Sat Sep 08, 2012 4:44 am

Vanilla

Saul

Cobblerfone · Post Post #111 (ISO) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:42 am

Zachrulez has been prodded.

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch

Votecount 2.2

Empking
FuDuzn
Zachrulez
scooby
Saulres

Not Voting -5- Empking, FuDuzn, Zachrulez, scooby, Saulres

Day Two Deadline(expired on 2012-09-20 09:55:00)

Empking · Post Post #112 (ISO) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 10:44 am

Saul's scum. Called it.

scooby · Post Post #113 (ISO) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 1:46 pm

saulres · Post Post #114 (ISO) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:42 pm

FuDuzn,

First, that's not how popcorning works (not that I'm sure when we agreed to popcorning). You're supposed to ask your scummiest suspect to go next. Do you really think I'm scummier than Zach, who has done nothing this game other than hammer a townie?

I want Zach claiming before I do.

Second, to answer your question:

In post 102, FuDuzn wrote:Not sure how I am rehashing other arguments in regards to the massclaim disscussion, I would like some clarification on that.

Here you go.

In post 79, saulres wrote: could someone explain to me why it's ideal at this point? The way I see it, what it would do is reduce the potential scumpool to 4 from 5, at the cost of, if we get to tonight, telling scum who to kill (and putting us at LyLo again tomorrow).

Conversely, if we make it to tonight with scum having only a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the doc guardian, and potentially giving us a 3 on 1 tomorrow (if the doc guardian protects the scumkill), that gives us two chances to hit the final scum instead of just one. With the shortness of this game I think that would be a huge advantage if the doc (screw the werewolf terminology) can pull it off.

In post 83, FuDuzn wrote:With the macho seer dead I believe a mass claim would not be for the best. Even we all claim then we will have outed the doc, and even if we lynch scum toDay then the doc will die at Night and we are then left at lylo again Tomorrow with three unknowns........and this is in a best case scenario. Basically I think the best chance we have is to keep the doc hidden.

In post 87, FuDuzn wrote:Let's say we lynch scum toDay. If the doc has been outed then he most likely would be killed at Night and then Tomorrow in a lylo situation there will be three unconfirmed players. If the doc has not been outed then he very well could pull off a successful protection and then Tomorrow there would be three townies left

I see no fundamental difference, content-wise, between what I wrote and what you wrote.

=============

In post 112, Empking wrote:Saul's scum. Called it.

Explain why.

Also explain where you called it. In your QT?

Empking · Post Post #115 (ISO) » Sun Sep 09, 2012 2:48 pm

In post 114, saulres wrote:Explain why.

Claim delaying.

Also explain where you called it. In your QT?

Out loud just before posting.

Zachrulez · Post Post #116 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 2:41 am

In post 114, saulres wrote:FuDuzn,

First, that's not how popcorning works (not that I'm sure when we agreed to popcorning). You're supposed to ask your scummiest suspect to go next. Do you really think I'm scummier than Zach, who has done nothing this game other than hammer a townie?

I want Zach claiming before I do.

You're confirmed town. That's my claim.

Confident Emp is scum, unsure between Scooby and Fu.

saulres · Post Post #117 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:31 am

In post 101, saulres wrote:
Empking
, if you found scooby scummy in 20, why did you vote Carbon instead?

In 63 you said your sudden townread on Carbon was due to his "newb derping"; what made you think it was town newb as compared to scum newb?

In post 101, saulres wrote:
Zach
, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

saulres · Post Post #118 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:32 am

pedit: Wanted to add:

Zach

: Why do you think Emp's scum?

saulres · Post Post #119 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:35 am

And, somehow I missed Emp's response in 103. So really it's just Zach who I have questions for at the moment.

Sorry for the brainfritzing.

Zachrulez · Post Post #120 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:48 am

In post 101, saulres wrote:
Zach
, I'm not seeing any pro-town actions from you at all. In the post you hammered Carbon, you expressed suspicion of our two flipped townies and no one else. I remember your reads being better; is my memory at fault?

It's been a while but I've had games where I was right about pretty much nothing.

In post 118, saulres wrote:pedit: Wanted to add:

Zach
: Why do you think Emp's scum?

Saulres suspicion is opportunistic. Accusing you of delaying massclaim over a weekend is really crappy reasoning.

Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

saulres · Post Post #121 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:52 am

In post 120, Zachrulez wrote:Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Why didn't you say that when you did your catchup hammer post? Here's what you said about Emp:

In post 67, Zachrulez wrote:And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

Zachrulez · Post Post #122 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:54 am

In post 121, saulres wrote:
In post 120, Zachrulez wrote:Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Why didn't you say that when you did your catchup hammer post? Here's what you said about Emp:

In post 67, Zachrulez wrote:And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

Because I just saw it now looking back.

Empking · Post Post #123 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:56 am

In post 122, Zachrulez wrote:
In post 121, saulres wrote:
In post 120, Zachrulez wrote:Don't really like iso 61 looking back where he says he's convinced Carbon is town but is willing to lynch him nontheless. Seems like trying to have it both ways.

Why didn't you say that when you did your catchup hammer post? Here's what you said about Emp:

In post 67, Zachrulez wrote:And now lynching anyone else is the suboptimal play. (Empking touched on the risk of outing power, which can happen outright, and also by outing vanillas to scum. That's why not lynching vanilla claims is a terrible idea.)

Because I just saw it now looking back.

You referenced it in post 67.

Zachrulez · Post Post #124 (ISO) » Mon Sep 10, 2012 5:01 am

Yeah, a post that doesn't look scummy can look different once you can look back on it with new information.

Basically I didn't give the comment you made about thinking carbon was town much thought at that point because carbon hadn't flipped town and I didn't think there was a strong chance he was going to at that point.