Micro 21: Bird 7P GAME OVER

Empking · Post Post #75 (ISO) » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:28 am

Saul; Pro or anti?

saulres · Post Post #76 (ISO) » Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:35 am

Anti.

I really want to hear from others.

scooby · Post Post #77 (ISO) » Thu Sep 06, 2012 4:23 pm

So saulres became obvtown. (scum obviously know this is lylo, so they wouldnt have voted like saulres did)

I guess we should probably massclaim, its lylo, etc.

Also, this fore EVERYONE IN NEXT POST: who are the people you suspect?

Zachrulez · Post Post #78 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:02 am

Yeah, massclaim should happen.

Which is all I'll say until we either do so, or establish that we're not mass claiming.

saulres · Post Post #79 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:32 am

scooby, why do you keep asking people for their reads without giving any of your own?

Zach: Please explain why you quickhammered on page 3 instead of prolonging discussion and scumhunting.

Finally: "Mass" claim seems a bit of a misnomer, given that there's only one claim to be made

But, could someone explain to me why it's ideal at this point? The way I see it, what it would do is reduce the potential scumpool to 4 from 5, at the cost of, if we get to tonight, telling scum who to kill (and putting us at LyLo again tomorrow).

Conversely, if we make it to tonight with scum having only a 1-in-3 chance of hitting the

doc

guardian, and potentially giving us a 3 on 1 tomorrow (if the

doc

guardian protects the scumkill), that gives us two chances to hit the final scum instead of just one. With the shortness of this game I think that would be a huge advantage if the doc (screw the werewolf terminology) can pull it off.

That's why I'm anti-mass-claim, unless the PR feels he's getting close to being mislynched today.

Zachrulez · Post Post #80 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:53 am

That's just the thing Saul, the benefits you are laying out only apply if a scum lynch happens today, something that is less likely without a mass claim. The benefits that we would potentially have tomorrow from a doctor reaching that point don't mean much if we don't even get there.

Zachrulez · Post Post #81 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:59 am

In post 79, saulres wrote:Zach: Please explain why you quickhammered on page 3 instead of prolonging discussion and scumhunting.

Basically because he claimed vanilla and there was a good chance he was scum. The latter might be worth having more discussion, but when combined with the former, it just becomes damaging if the wagon dissipates.

Empking · Post Post #82 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:51 am

To lynch scum means that the Doc is going to get outted anyway. This to win we need to lynch scum then there's no reason not to out the Doc right now.

FuDuzn · Post Post #83 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 4:08 am

With the macho seer dead I believe a mass claim would not be for the best. Even we all claim then we will have outed the doc, and even if we lynch scum toDay then the doc will die at Night and we are then left at lylo again Tomorrow with three unknowns........and this is in a best case scenario. Basically I think the best chance we have is to keep the doc hidden.

Also, I am doing a bit of a flip flop but I don't like scooby right now. To me it looks like he is trying to control how the town plays and how saulres said it......why are you waiting for other people to give reads without giving them yourself?

Pre Edit: Maybe I am missing something, but how does lynching scum out the doc?

Empking · Post Post #84 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:32 am

In post 83, FuDuzn wrote:With the macho seer dead I believe a mass claim would not be for the best. Even we all claim then we will have outed the doc, and even if we lynch scum toDay then the doc will die at Night and we are then left at lylo again Tomorrow with three unknowns........and this is in a best case scenario. Basically I think the best chance we have is to keep the doc hidden.

You can't judge a strategy by what the strategy does; you have to judge a strategy by what the strategy does compared to alternatives.

FuDuzn · Post Post #85 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:43 am

Empking, isn't that what I am doing?

One strategy outs the doc and basically guarantees his death and another strategy keeps the doc hidden and gives the town (imo) a better chance to win.

Empking · Post Post #86 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 6:49 am

In post 85, FuDuzn wrote:Empking, isn't that what I am doing?

One strategy outs the doc and basically guarantees his death and another strategy keeps the doc hidden and gives the town (imo) a better chance to win.

Explain to me, step by step, how you see us winning without outting the Doc today.

FuDuzn · Post Post #87 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:49 am

Let's say we lynch scum toDay. If the doc has been outed then he most likely would be killed at Night and then Tomorrow in a lylo situation there will be three unconfirmed players. If the doc has not been outed then he very well could pull off a successful protection and then Tomorrow there would be three townies left and two of those townies would be confirmed(via the doc protection). Better odds to know scum is among two players then among three.

Now after typing this out I see there could be a false doc claim Tomorrow, but even then it would be lynching between two players and not three.

Basically the odds of hitting scum are better tomorrow if we don't mass claim then versus if we do. But this of course is all assuming we do hit scum toDay, and I don't see how mass claiming helps that as well.

Empking · Post Post #88 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:54 am

In post 86, Empking wrote:
In post 85, FuDuzn wrote:Empking, isn't that what I am doing?

One strategy outs the doc and basically guarantees his death and another strategy keeps the doc hidden and gives the town (imo) a better chance to win.

Explain to me, step by step, how you see us winning without outting the Doc today.

FuDuzn · Post Post #89 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 7:59 am

Emp, I just explained how not mass claiming gives town much better odds to win. And I did explain it step by step and in multiple situations. What is your deal here?

Empking · Post Post #90 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:02 am

In post 89, FuDuzn wrote:Emp, I just explained how not mass claiming gives town much better odds to win. And I did explain it step by step and in multiple situations. What is your deal here?

You can't answer the question "how do you not out the Doc" with "assume the Doc isn't outted".

saulres · Post Post #91 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:04 am

Empking:

Explain to me, step by step, why you think if we don't out the doc we're going to lose.

Empking · Post Post #92 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:06 am

In post 91, saulres wrote:Empking:

Explain to me, step by step, why you think if we don't out the doc we're going to lose.

A. The only way we can not out the Doc, providing we wait for claims etc etc, is to lynch a VT.
B. By lynching a VT we lose.

saulres · Post Post #93 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:12 am

How does outting the doc prevent us from lynching a VT? Or are you planning to run everyone up to L-1 to see what they claim? Because we can't do that; as soon as we place the first vote on a townie, scum can quickhammer.

Empking · Post Post #94 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:15 am

In post 93, saulres wrote:How does outting the doc prevent us from lynching a VT?

It doesn't and I never said it would.

saulres · Post Post #95 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:18 am

In post 82, Empking wrote:To lynch scum means that the Doc is going to get outted anyway.

That's what you said.

You have so far failed to explain why that would be true.

Empking · Post Post #96 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:21 am

In post 95, saulres wrote:
In post 82, Empking wrote:To lynch scum means that the Doc is going to get outted anyway.

That's what you said.

You have so far failed to explain why that would be true.

Scum; I am on L-1 (oh my!)
Town A: Claim!
Scum: Doc
Doc: Nuh Huh
Dod is outted. What do you think would happen?

FuDuzn · Post Post #97 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:23 am

You asked me how we can win without outting the doc toDay, and I answered with various situations where the odds are better for town to win without outting the doc. If I had an airtight plan that guaranteed to work plan I would lay it all out, all I have is odds that tell me outting the doc toDay is a bad idea.

And please anwer the question yoursel, why is outting the doc a good idea?

Pre Edit: Yes a mislynch means we lose, and I do see that outting the doc does make odds better of hitting scum toDay. But then Tomorrow it puts us in a potentially much worse position then if we kept the doc hidden.

Empking · Post Post #98 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:29 am

In post 97, FuDuzn wrote:You asked me how we can win without outting the doc toDay, and I answered with various situations where the odds are better for town to win without outting the doc.

HOW

You cannot answer how something is possible by saying "assume it's possible". Explain step by step how it is possible to keep the Doc from getting outted.

I'll simplify it for you:
a) A player is on L-1. What should we do?
b) A suspected player claims Doc. What should we do?

Zachrulez · Post Post #99 (ISO) » Fri Sep 07, 2012 8:34 am

In post 97, FuDuzn wrote:You asked me how we can win without outting the doc toDay, and I answered with various situations where the odds are better for town to win without outting the doc. If I had an airtight plan that guaranteed to work plan I would lay it all out, all I have is odds that tell me outting the doc toDay is a bad idea.

And please anwer the question yoursel, why is outting the doc a good idea?

Pre Edit: Yes a mislynch means we lose, and I do see that outting the doc does make odds better of hitting scum toDay. But then Tomorrow it puts us in a potentially much worse position then if we kept the doc hidden.

Explain the odds because I don't see it.