Micro 632 - Mislead [Game Over]

[callforjudgement]

(Me summarizing the Zyf/Infinity reactions much earlier)

PEDIT: Zyf is definitely tunnelling. Tunnelling's something that's easy to get caught up in as town. I'd have thought it would be fairly easy to fake as scum. Scum rarely

want

to tunnel in my experience (I'm not quite sure why, my best guesses are that it tends to be read as scummy and tends to increase the chance of being OMGUS-voted), which means that it's probably a bit of a town-tell in practice. I agree that if Zyf is town, he genuinely thinks that you're scum, and that if he's scum, he genuinely wants to fake a scumread on you.

(More recently)

if you're gonna switch me with anyone switch me with lucky

This is one of the best arguments I see for keeping with the current plan. It's fairly likely that Zyf has a good handle on who scum is (either because he's scum or because he's town with good reads). If he's scum, it doesn't matter who accompanies him down path A. As such, it makes sense to let him choose who accompanies him.

[Javajoe24]

Makes sense to me.

VOTE: No Lynch

[Something_Smart]

I'm null reading SS (most of his posts could easily come from either scum or town), whereas I have at least a mild scumread on Lucky, Zyf and Edos.
However, I'm pretty much alone in putting SS above Lucky; Lucky (obviously), Edos, and Zyf all think SS is scummier. So I went with the current plan because it seems more in line with the views of the town. (Note that podoboq had a fairly strong townread on SS, for what that's worth.)

I'm inclined to stick to the current plan right now, but if enough people are happy with the change, I'd be happy to change too.

I mean, I'm happy with it

Your logic with Zyf makes sense but he's been locked in on me as scum (not sure exactly why) for a while now and I'd rather one of my scumreads take the apparently dangerous path.

Zyf's decision is confirmed to be town-motivated because it's autowin if he's scum, but it's autowin if you and Java are scum too and I think you should be the ones to decide. (Or at least, your opinions should have the most weight.)

If Zyf and I both take this path and both die and flip town, who among Lucky and Edos are you planning to lynch tomorrow?

[callforjudgement]

Assuming it comes to a 4p D5, I'm planning to spend more time rereading before I make a decision about who to lynch tomorrow. (I'd be treating it like a lylo, with the proviso that instead of having a 0% victory chance if I'm wrong and a 100% victory chance if I'm right, I'd have a 50% victory chance if wrong and a 75% victory chance if right, i.e. there's a 75% chance that the decision doesn't matter at all. I'd still be trying to make it as best I could in case it did randomly turn out to matter, though.)

[callforjudgement]

Repeating this so that it's on the current page:

For reference, current version of the plan, taking the swap into account:

Night 4

Path A

: Zyf, Something_Smart

Path B

: Edosurist, Lucky2u, callforjudgement, Javajoe24
(Deviating from this plan gets you automatically lynched the next day.)

Day 5

plans are to be negotiated tomorrow.

And choosing the paths for tomorrow in advance to stop scum manipulating them:

Spoiler: Path assignment for tomorrow night (Night 5)

On

Night 5

:
If there are 4 players alive, CFJ and Lucky take path A, Javajoe24 and Edosurist take path B.
If there are 3 players alive, two players take path A, one player takes path B.
If there are 2 players alive, they must split either night 5 or night 6; it'll be entirely down to guessing. Good luck!

[Zyf]

I'm supposed to be dying, right?
Past that there's nothing more to say; i already made it clear who I want dead

[FakeGod]

VoteCount 4.1

No Lynch [4] - Zyf, Edosurist, callforjudgement, Javajoe24 [LYNCH]

Not Voting [2]

- Lucky2u, Something_Smart

With 6 alive, 4 is needed to lynch.

[FakeGod]

It is Night 4.

You have 48 hours to PM me which path you are taking tonight.

[FakeGod]

Day 5

[FakeGod]

Zyf

died

. Zyf was aligned with

Town

.

[Edosurist]

VOTE: Something_Smart

Java and I are taking Path B tonight. GG guys.

[Edosurist]

@SS
Why didn't you try to put Zyf and Lucky together on Path A yesterday?

[callforjudgement]

On

Night 5:

If there are 4 players alive, CFJ and Lucky take path A, Javajoe24 and Edosurist take path B.

Just confirming that this is the plan. There's zero point in pre-arranging paths for night 6; it'll either be an autowin by splitting, or (if SS somehow managed to deviate from the plan as town, thus throwing the game) an autoloss by endgaming.

Going to hold off on voting immediately in case something bizarre is going on, but I don't see SS explaining his way out of this one (and won't object if the remaining players hammer).

And Zyf, I know I didn't trust you, but thank you for sticking to your reads.

[callforjudgement]

BTW, Java, I'm curious: was that an intentional or accidental hammer? I didn't realise it was the hammer at the time, and thus it's possible that SS didn't either.

[callforjudgement]

Just verifying that everything makes sense because I feel like this is almost too easy: scum!SS should have expressed a scumread on Lucky late on Day 4 (#1001, check), and an increasing scumread on Edos over the course of day 4 (#937 shows the scumread, #821 on late day 3 shows a townread on Edos). So yes, everything is consistent with what I'd expect from correct scum play.

(FWIW, I wouldn't blame SS if he surrendered as scum in this situation. It reminds me of what happened to SnarkySnowman in Micro 604; if a player has done something incredibly scummy in a setup-breaking-style setup, and there's only one scum left, the details of the plan can vary as a result of discussion but you always pick a plan that will 100% win if that player is scum.)

And of course, we have to make sure everyone's online before hammering because, barring town diverting from the plan, it's the only way that we could lose.

[callforjudgement]

The current plan wins 100% if SS is scum, so there's not much reason to look for a better one, but I think there may be one that lets us guard against SS being scum and also lets us guard against one other specific player being scum.

Could someone check this for me?:
D5, no lynch
N5, CFJ, Lucky take path A, Javajoe, Edos, SS take path B
D6, path A was correct: lynch anyone who deviated, N6 split for the win
D6, path B was correct: lynch anyone who deviated, N6 Javajoe takes path A, Edos, SS take path B

This gives us 100% win chance if SS or Edos is scum, and 50% if CFJ, Lucky, or Javajoe is scum. I rather like those odds :-) (Note that this also doesn't allow any potential scum player to win unless they could have done with the previous plan.)

However, I'm not sure we should go for this plan even though it's mathematically strictly better than lynching SS. The reason is that it's possible that after lynching SS and getting a scumflip, the mod will just call the game because it's a town autowin, and having the game end sooner reduces the odds of a modkill ruining things for us. So I think I'm going to recommend the obvious lynch-SS technique that we'd had yesterday.

[callforjudgement]

(And an improvement to my plan in the previous post, along the same lines as Zyf yesterday: we could let SS choose which player to call as the other 100%er rather than my choice of Edos based on reads yesterday. Not that this really matters, though, because we should probably just be lynching him for the win.)

[callforjudgement]

Java approving this plan makes me more convinced he's town.

I will go with this plan if the town majority goes for it, but I'd much rather just give it to JJ.

Edosurist was responsible for bringing up the "win if Java's town, lose if he's scum" strategy on Day 3. This would be incredibly ballsy as scum (more so than anything Zyf did, IMO). This is him reaffirming his commitment to it even as people were stating that they'd prefer alternatives.

Wow, this setup is more complicated than I thought it would be. I'm confident that we can identify a townie outside of the three FS'ers, and I'm fairly confident (though not as much so) that Edos and Java are town. I don't think I'd bet the game on Java being town but I'm not sure which of your plans this suggests is best. I kind of like the hybrid plan.

SS was the second person to shoot it down (podoboq was the first to have doubts). This is something that he'd

have

to do as scum.

All of a sudden I'm glad I unbalanced the tiebreak on D3. If I'd gone for the balanced tiebreak, we'd be looking at trying to guess our way to D7 from D4 with

7

5 players. That's only a

87.5%

62.5% win chance. As it is, our scumhunting brought it up to 100% despie the modkills.

[Something_Smart]

welp.

Fiirst of all, I'm totally okay with being lynched today. (We really shouldn't be considering any other option, if only because of policy.) It doesn't make much of a difference, except that it forces you to take plan b1 instead of b2. Which is okay because we still have a 50% chance of winning and I'm not as confident in my reads anymore. (Also because our chance of winning really should have been higher in any event because of the unexpected modkills.)

Second of all, we have 50% chance by splitting 2-2, but it's only 50% if the paths are chosen without influence from scum. So here's the thing; if I were scum (and I'm not), lynching me today and splitting 2-2 would be an automatic town victory. In that case, it doesn't matter who takes which path. So my suggestion is:

let me choose who takes which path without any influences from other people

(which I'll do either by some arbitrary reason or by flipping a coin, but one that isn't influenced by anything people say today) before I am lynched.

For me, this game was just meant to be fun (rather than competitive); I thought (and still think) if it as partially a puzzle. So the fact that unexpected elements disrupted our solving it doesn't make it any less enjoyable.

[callforjudgement]

Now I'm even more certain you're scum.

It doesn't matter who takes which path, so long as it's 2 in each direction.
If you change the paths at this point, it increases the chance that a townie goes the wrong way by mistake (via looking at the wrong plan), and thus is a sensible last-ditch approach as scum. (Especially because you could do something like swapping the path assignment to maximise the chance that someone makes a mistake.)
OTOH, if you're town, you have absolutely no advantage to changing the path assignment because it can't possibly change the probabilities in town's favour.

BTW, why are you not explaining why you took the wrong path? Because you don't care about being lynched any more?

(Also, I've been viewing the game as a puzzle too; see me above trying to increase the victory odds, for example, which is something I wouldn't even really be thinking about if not trying to maximise victory odds in a situation where they're basically 100% already. If you were town, you should be jumping at the opportunity to use a plan that gives town more of a chance to win; the plan I suggested above is materially better than the obvious plan from your point of view in the case where you're town. The thing is, I'm viewing it as a scumhunting puzzle

in addition to

the mathematical puzzle; I fear I'm rather better at the maths than I am at the scumhunting, but we made enough progress in the scumhunting to make this victory guaranteed despite two modkills, rather than merely somewhat likely even without any.)

[Something_Smart]

Now I'm even more certain you're scum.

no u

It doesn't matter who takes which path, so long as it's 2 in each direction.
If you change the paths at this point, it increases the chance that a townie goes the wrong way by mistake (via looking at the wrong plan), and thus is a sensible last-ditch approach as scum. (Especially because you could do something like swapping the path assignment to maximise the chance that someone makes a mistake.)
OTOH, if you're town, you have absolutely no advantage to changing the path assignment because it can't possibly change the probabilities in town's favour.

That's not true? Whoever is trusted to choose the paths can win 100% if they're scum because they just send themself and a townie down the right path.
I'll be very unambiguous as to which path to follow.

BTW, why are you not explaining why you took the wrong path? Because you don't care about being lynched any more?

Yeah, also that it doesn't matter now.

(Also, I've been viewing the game as a puzzle too; see me above trying to increase the victory odds, for example, which is something I wouldn't even really be thinking about if not trying to maximise victory odds in a situation where they're basically 100% already. If you were town, you should be jumping at the opportunity to use a plan that gives town more of a chance to win; the plan I suggested above is materially better than the obvious plan from your point of view in the case where you're town. The thing is, I'm viewing it as a scumhunting puzzle

in addition to

the mathematical puzzle; I fear I'm rather better at the maths than I am at the scumhunting, but we made enough progress in the scumhunting to make this victory guaranteed despite two modkills, rather than merely somewhat likely even without any.)

To be honest at this point I'm more invested in the process than the result. I guess I'll hear what other people think about your plan though. (And I don't really want to be alive anymore I actually PM'ed the mod and asked for spoilers before realizing I wasn't dead.)

[callforjudgement]

That's not true? Whoever is trusted to choose the paths can win 100% if they're scum because they just send themself and a townie down the right path.

I chose the paths yesterday in order to avoid that problem. (It's known that scum don't know the paths in advance, thus even if I were scum I wouldn't be able to manipulate them.)

BTW, why are you not explaining why you took the wrong path? Because you don't care about being lynched any more?

Yeah, also that it doesn't matter now.

(And I don't really want to be alive anymore :P I actually PM'ed the mod and asked for spoilers before realizing I wasn't dead.)

Then why did you take path B? Choosing path A would have been a simple way to die overnight, whilst improving town's win chances (from 0% to 50%) in the case that Edos was scum and lied.

[callforjudgement]

V/LA for around 24 hours.

(Probably a bit less.)

I'd advise against lynching SS by the time I get back. If the day does end early, I'm going to follow the plan most recently posted toDay by Javajoe, if there is one. If he hasn't posted one, I'm going to follow the plan in (#1060 / #1062 (the two are identical)). (Note: this is just setting a default in case the day ends early; I'm open to potential negotiation.)

[Javajoe24]

Well SS is scum. And I have to point out that you are mistaken CFJ about our odds if SS is somehow town. If he is town, we have 4 players left after his lynch, therefore splitting 2-2. If two town go down the right path, then it is 2-1, lynch scum and split. So therefore if SS is somehow town, we have a 25% chance of victory. Like you said earlier, we can improve those chances by leaving him alive, splitting 2-3 today, guaranteeing a 2-1 tomorrow. Then split from there guarunteeing a town victory even if SS is somehow town, and still giving him 0% chance to win if he is scum. Therefore if we leave SS alive, no matter who is scum town is guaranteed a win. So even though I am sure SS is scum, it is actually in towns best interest to keep him alive.

With that said, it is very late at night and I am tired, so please double check my calculations.

[Edosurist]

I guess it's fine if we do this