Micro 634 - Wolf Hunt [Game Over!]

[ChaosOmega]

Votecount 3.3

Lycanfire (1)

- BlueBloodedToffee, mhsmith0

[L-1]

mhsmith0 (1)

- ChaosOmega, Lycanfire

[L-1]

Not Voting (1)

- Ümläüt

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline for Day 3 is Sunday, September 18th at 9PM EST.

Mod Notes

None!

________________________________________


So Umlaut is the tiebreaker.

how sure are you that it isn't umlaut? Becuase I'm pretty sure it's not umlaut, but it seems likely that chaos is going to snap vote me in LYLO if it comes to that, which means that if it's umlaut he wins (I'm presuming you're dead in this hypothetical)

This is most likely true, for the record.

[Ümläüt]

Lazy posting.

MHS' case on Lycan appears solid to me. Since Lycan would have been my next choice after him anyway, I'm willing to reverse the order there.

I would like Chaos' opinion of the case as well as MHS' opinion of Chaos.

[Ümläüt]

Just realized I didn't answer this.

What drove your prior on why the last wolf was off Carey? With Carey at L-2 and leading wagon (from your vote), I'd say that the temptation to be on the wagon of a wolf likely going down anyway would have been substantial for a buddy who wasn't already on.

I don't think it was clear that he was going down anyway. His wagon sort of came out of nowhere and I think Chaos was the only one who showed any confidence that it would actually flip scum. He was tied with Accountant up until I shifted my vote, and it could have easily gone the other way if I'd held out a bit longer.

Given that the game was plurality lynch and Lycanfire says he knew this, I think he's the most likely person on the Carey wagon to be scum since his vote was not actually what got Carey lynched.

Re. your point about his not actually pushing Carey in any way after voting, I didn't think anything of it at the time because I felt he had been clear that Accountant was his top choice and Carey a compromise (so I didn't seriously expect him to push the case). I'm not comfortable turning that behavior from NAI to a scumtell based solely on Carey's actual flip.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

I look forward to Lycan being hammered and winning the game.

[Ümläüt]

Like, I think lynching Lycan/Chaos wins the game so I'm not too fussed how we go about it.

Why Chaos? You've never cased him that I can recall.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

You're right, I haven't.

But I'm pretty sure you and mhsmith are town so if it isn't Lycan PoE says it's Chaos.

[Ümläüt]

I'd be more prone to believe it's MHS than Chaos. While I readily admit he's made some excellent posts since replacing in, it all seems directed at a scumread on Lycan, who is simply the most obvious choice after his own slot. A quick skim of pist's ISO uncovers that she never really did much scumhunting or gave any strong reads except maybe on Tier D1, and she said he was scum. I particularly dislike 210 which seems like scum trying to demonstrate

consistency

where a townie would want to reëvaluate.

Compare with Chaos, who while not being especially active did ask questions, form townreads, engage other players' reasoning, and push the Carey wagon.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

We can save that conversation for another day.

I feel like Lycan is scum just waiting to be hammered.

You should do the honour Umlaut.

[Ümläüt]

I'm not so sure we can have the conversation another day. But if you're not interested in engaging it today, I'll put it aside.

Intent: Lycanfire

[Ümläüt]

Intent temporarily withdrawn

I would like Chaos' opinion of the case as well as MHS' opinion of Chaos.

Going to wait for this first.

[Lycanfire]

Hold on. My vote on Carey did matter because I could have justified a vote on Tiershift. BBT was setting people up for one. Carey could have moved votes before deadline to L-1.

If we bring this to a mylo of Umlaut and mhsmith0 we have a good shot at losing.

UNVOTE:

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Why is that Lycan?

[ChaosOmega]

I would like Chaos' opinion of the case as well as MHS' opinion of Chaos.

I didn't like it. Focusing on the numbered points in 429...

I feel like point 1 is stretching Lycan's view to a point where it's more easily misrep-able. It looks like he's trying to tie his town-read of me to his other reads like an anchor, and is sinking me by stealing criticisms from Accountant. mhsmith says he gets the town read on my slot but not a strong town read, but Lycan never said I was a strong town read.

Point 3 is either really dumb or malicious. He's asking why Lycan moved his vote to Carey instead of pushing an Accountant lynch. Probably because Accountant had no votes other than Lycan and deadline was less than 5 hours from that post. Why the hell should he stay there?

Point 4 is meh. I can't describe it, but it doesn't feel genuine. Like he said that a day ago, and the person he voted with that logic flipped town. It could be a legitimate question, but it feels like he's trying to stick a choice on Lycan that excludes him from being scum to be manipulative and not to figure out where Lycan stands.

[Lycanfire]

Why is that Lycan?

He's already working on mhsmith0 while placing intent on me. If he wants to make the right call today what's with the intent?! If he's doing it to soften the hammer I'm scumreading him as king scum. Withdrawing intent was meaningless-making post 456 and placing intent anyway is a contradiction, but doing that and withdrawing it as edit by double post after your post 457 makes me think he cares more about how he's perceived than by what results his actions have. This is not town.

VOTE: Ümläüt

[BlueBloodedToffee]

And the scum read on mhsmith has...disappeared?

[Lycanfire]

I'm frequently wrong and have to go with my gut. Scumreading mhsmith0 because I was baiting him with Open 651 hanging over his head is easy when he feeds me a giant meta list that was missing my point anyhow. #458-459 is a fuck up, and if I'm dying for this I'm screaming it.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

If he is scum, why does Umlaut not just hammer you when he has the opportunity?

It looks like you're trying to save the mhsmith lynch for LyLo.

[BlueBloodedToffee]

Lynch Umlaut, kill me, vote mhsmith w/ Chaos = a win for you.

Umlaut, you really need to hammer Lycan.

[Ümläüt]

Why, are you or MHS planning to take your vote off him?

[BlueBloodedToffee]

No, but I want to win the game.

Is there something else you're waiting for?

[Ümläüt]

I want MHS' opinion of Chaos, he hasn't given one yet.

[Ümläüt]

That said we only have about a day and a half left now, so

Intent: Lycanfire

You should claim.

[mhsmith0]

Sorry was busy. I'll pop back in tonight w a more substantive chaos read, but if nothing else him being early on Carey d1 is a pretty good look. Super risky play in this format to bus at that stage. I'll re read to see if it seems fake but I doubt it. It's probably just lycan.

[Lycanfire]

If he is scum, why does Umlaut not just hammer you when he has the opportunity?

Because he wants to win and is doing set up in 456. If he thought I was scum why is he going for mhsmith0? He wouldn't make a post like this and intent me four minutes later if 456 was made with today in mind. He removed intent in 459 by double post. I don't think it's a coincidence that he decided to change his mind after thinking about your 457 post-"we save this conversation for another day". The withdrawn intent makes me think he is worried about how he'll be perceived if he kept intent on me while not "waiting for this [Chaos post]" today.

You should claim.

I'm a VT

[Ümläüt]

Yeah, I agree with MHS' opinion and I'm satisfied that he isn't trying to force some sort of "Well, maybe he's scum..." like he might if he expected the game to go another day.

I'd argue with Lycan's rather tortured interpretation of my posts but since he's getting lynched anyway I might as well just hammer him instead. No one besides me seems to want anything else from the day so lets git 'er done.

VOTE: Lycanfire