Micro 667 - Chosen Mafia (Game Over)

Micro Games (9 players or fewer). Archived during the 2023 queue overhaul.
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Post Post #900 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:35 am

Post by Ümläüt »

Hi, maybe don't lynch anyone in the next ten minutes.

It looks to me like the Mafia is trying to avoid losing via the chosen mechanic. By increasing the number of lynches they increase the probability we'll eventually hit a chosen.

Assuming they keep this up, we have two more lynches to go. We need to either hit Mafia (2/5 chance with random lynch), or two non-chosen townies (1/10 chance with random lynch).
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Post Post #901 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:36 am

Post by Creature »

Mafia needs to kill the other Chosen Townie so they can kill me.
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Post Post #902 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:36 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

umlaut you forgot we can cross off creature for our random lynches
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Post Post #903 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:37 am

Post by Creature »

Note that mafia only needs to lynch one Chosen to not lose by the mechanism.
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Post Post #904 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:38 am

Post by Creature »

I think I'll most likely stick with TTTT.
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Post Post #905 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:38 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

^what creature said

anybody hardpushing any other slot is immediately suspicious
now i know i was hardpushing TTTT earlier but w/e, i know he'll come in and do his best to get a lynch on me so whatever, i don't care because when i'm lynched and flip chosen bam powerlynch TTTT tomorrow and win
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Post Post #906 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:41 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

dave hardpushing me was badScum doing his best to get a chosen lynch off before he dies so that his partner can carry etc etc etc
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Post Post #907 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:42 am

Post by Ümläüt »

VOTE: Tenshii

TTTT's jumping on and off Dave wasn't great, but I'd rather lynch this first. Not too committed though, let's take our time and choose right.

Also remember that as long as we lynch non-chosen we're in good shape.
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Post Post #908 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:43 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

i'm really quite sure tenshii is town

i'd stay and tell you why but i'm really quite sure i need to sleep
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Post Post #909 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:45 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

creature rolling chosen was like
insta-death for scum lmao
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Post Post #910 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:47 am

Post by Ümläüt »

In post 896, Human Sequencer wrote:VOTE: TTTT
literally everybody else is town, i reckon TTTT will come out blazing on me today to secure a chosen mislynch so he can then actually win the game (can't endgame chosen townies)

if you're considering lynching me, i recommend no-lynch instead. it's obvious scum has a tactical reason for not killing anybody (need a chosen lynch) and by voting me you're likely just giving scum exactly what they need
This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now? Because I'm not. Or I wasn't, until I saw this.

And on reflection I'm still not considering it seriously. The way they spearheaded the case on Dave, I really don't think it's likely they're scum. But that post is still weird. Where is this defensiveness coming from, Human?
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Post Post #911 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:49 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

In post 910, Ümläüt wrote: This bothers me. Is anyone considering lynching Human right now?
TTTT is!

I just know TTTT is scum and know what he'ss planning to do, so I'm pre-emptively shutting it down.
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Post Post #912 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:51 am

Post by Human Sequencer »

In post 898, Human Sequencer wrote:i also invite everybody to analyze TTTT-dave interactions during day 2
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Post Post #913 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:52 am

Post by Creature »

I actually noticed now why nokill was benefitial to scum.
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Post Post #914 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:53 am

Post by Creature »

If scum killed someone, we would be at:
2 chosen townies
1 simple town
1 scum

Aka 50-50 for us. Assuming we treat me as conf!Chosen, that'd be 67-33 for us.
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Post Post #915 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:53 am

Post by Creature »

I don't think Tenshii would've noticed that, so he's probtown.
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Post Post #916 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 5:55 am

Post by TTTT »

In post 901, Creature wrote:Mafia needs to kill the other Chosen Townie so they can kill me.
^this

the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2
not sure why human thinks I'm gunning for them
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Post Post #917 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:27 am

Post by Ümläüt »

In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Explain?
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Post Post #918 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:29 am

Post by Ümläüt »

I mean, if we believe Creature and Human are chosen, and we're right, then we win just by not lynching them.

I'm more convinced about Creature than Human, to be honest. It seems almost too convenient for the two chosen to be the two people I was already townreading the most when I entered the game.
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Post Post #919 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:36 am

Post by TTTT »

In post 917, Ümläüt wrote:
In post 916, TTTT wrote:the moment I saw Hiraki's flip I realized it has to be Umlaut
Explain?
Still TRing Tenshii for day1 EOD
Human is town from the Dave push day2
...and Creature would be dead if scum could kill him = confChosen
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Post Post #920 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:44 am

Post by Ümläüt »

Fair enough.

I mean, I'm pretty sure it's not me though.
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Post Post #921 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 6:48 am

Post by Creature »

Either Tenshii is scum, Human and I aren't both Chosen or scum is hoping in the off-chance we decide to lynch Human.
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Post Post #922 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:04 am

Post by Ümläüt »

If we take Creature as chosen, then with two otherwise random lynches we have a 1/2 chance of hitting scum and a 1/6 chance of hitting both regular townies, so 2/3 chance to win.

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What happens if both factions refuse to kill?
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Post Post #923 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:04 am

Post by Ümläüt »

Oh wait, it's plurality lynch, never mind.
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Post Post #924 (ISO) » Tue Jan 10, 2017 7:05 am

Post by Ümläüt »

@Mod
What happens if no one votes?
“Of course it's my fault. There's no one else here who could be responsible for anything.”
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