Micro 683: Frozen Angel Mafia

[Frozen Angel]

But anyway this is called Frozen Angel mafia for a reason! It's the story of Frozen Angel's life as either alignment. She thinks that she's going to win but then I screw up her faction, whether I'm on it or not

huh

[Dunnstral]

Even if you say that vig kills are average chance to hit scum: which they're not. by that token lynches are less likely to hit scum as well.

there's a 58.33% chance that 1 scum is dead on day 2.

even if 41.66% was near scum autowin, which I think it wasn't necessarily without some organization behind the wheel, the setup's still not going to wind up being that scumsided.

FMPOV there is a very high % chance in most lobbies that scum will do something scummy while pushing the day 1 wagon and get vigged for it.

if we assume autowin 40% of the time

scum dead in first day is probably still 40-60% of that 60% of a win on either side - because the surprise factor still exists, and if the jan hits the kill scum are a lot stronger as well, and also scum dead day 1 balances out a bit

so assuming half of that 60% town win.... 30% sounds good to me, maybe slightly higher (and to what I estimated earlier, maybe I'm confbiased but it sounds good)

[Dunnstral]

I liked the dead thread flavor...

[RadiantCowbells]

Half of that 60% town win is a joke.

call it something like 25%.

[Dunnstral]

you can't calculate math like that - its wrong

the only way for truly testing it is to somehow run it repeatedly and see the statistics

or trusting FA's percentages!

But I did do that - I was showing realistic scenarios and things that can't be accounted for in % - mainly the surprise factor

[Dunnstral]

Half of that 60% town win is a joke.

call it something like 25%.

25% what

[Frozen Angel]

I think you're horribly underestimating the probability that the N1 vig hits town if town is lynched day 1. Vig shots are pretty fucking likely to hit scum overall.

Their good enough to get lynched D1 - no hard feeling titus just talking in general - so their good enough to shoot town

[Firebringer]

this game was to short.

[RadiantCowbells]

Please keep in mind that scumteam didn't know what was going on. I made a bunch of arbitrary assumptions in terms of what Myko would do as a mod and nearly 100% cracked how the game worked.

It feels like we played as an informed minority because of it but we were actually pretty fucking uninformed.

[Frozen Angel]

you knew you would win d2

what was unclear about it?

[Frozen Angel]

siriously not buying this shit

The game will end in 97 - nearlly 98% scum victory

lets test it somewhere else

[RadiantCowbells]

Fite me IRL FA.

[Frozen Angel]

sadly its closed so we have to that on other places/not MS

[Frozen Angel]

Fite me IRL FA.

why should I do that!

[RadiantCowbells]

BECAUSE I WANNA GO GRR FITE ME

[Firebringer]

so aggressive

[Dunnstral]

lets test it somewhere else

...FA, it's the closed aspect that really changed this up

If you mean on another site, that could theoretically work (I don't know the ethics on that, I think it's frowned upon to host those types of things here like that but realistically it could work)

I suspect scum would win, I suspect the win % is like 30% for town, though. 98% is unrealistic

[Dunnstral]

so aggressive

What do you think of town's chances of winning this setup friend?

[Frozen Angel]

BECAUSE I WANNA GO GRR FITE ME

FITE RC

Frozen Angel won

[Frozen Angel]

lets test it somewhere else

...FA, it's the closed aspect that really changed this up

If you mean on another site, that could theoretically work (I don't know the ethics on that, I think it's frowned upon to host those types of things here like that but realistically it could work)

I suspect scum would win, I suspect the win % is like 30% for town, though. 98% is unrealistic

97 or 98

Its realistic as fuck

[Firebringer]

so aggressive

What do you think of town's chances of winning this setup friend?

i thought it was pretty decent.
i think in my review i said it wasn't balanced but it was definitely the most balanced bastard i ever saw.

[Frozen Angel]

so aggressive

What do you think of town's chances of winning this setup friend?

i thought it was pretty decent.
i think in my review i said it wasn't balanced but it was definitely the most balanced bastard i ever saw.

>.>

bad reviewer

[RadiantCowbells]

REKT FIREBRINGER

[Frozen Angel]

siriously calling this game balanced as bastard is really annoying

don't do that

[Firebringer]

bad reviewer

r u joking?