Micro 693: The Simpsons Mafia II (Game Over)

[Hiraki]

Actually, not as well thought out as I originally thought -

Unvote

People in the game (excluding me) :

Vaxkiller
Edo
Comm
ASP

I still have a hard SR on Edo with Vax being the last resort. Edo doesn't make sense as cult for:

Willing to hard-rule out Vax for cult just because we're having this discussion mainly because of him. No reason for him to do such a thing as cult.

While the vote on 1SVT is horrid, I'd rather not risk cult growing larger.

Yeah, I'm with Hiraki here. With GL's half claim, I'm much more inclined to vote Char today, then we can get GL tomorrow.

Actually, this might invalidate him as scum. No reason to announce that you're going to go after GL the next day and then kill him anyway.

I'm confused by the "math" here. Are you saying I'm your preferred lynch, and me flipping scum will suggest that Char or Vax (if not Char) is my partner?

Sorry for not responding - it was a lynch order.

I'm going to settle Edo as my "if-everything-else-fails" lynch because things aren't making sense - but I have a thought that's new. (I'm sure that Comm will comment here that it's because I'm scum and my time has come or something - Post edit: did it before I posted)

Comm - VI (which would actually be a good cult target because there's no way he's dying)

Which means, Jester,

Cult

, or town/mafia being overpowered is not out of the question!

Odd thing to throw in there in the early game.

I think the worst part is this -

But a survivor claim that early?

Either a Jester

or just town messing around. Or even scum gambling it.

So if you go back to the first part, Comm talked about Jesters (which he referenced later), Cults (which were not a topic), and town/mafia. If anyone would be a cheeky cult boi, it'd be this exact early game phrasing where he could come back in post game and said "I talked about it at the start!" which I wouldn't think past Comm to try.

Yeah, no, you die today. End of story, You kept pushing me and pushing me when you aren't even town and I seriously doubt there's 3 3rd parties (Survivor, Cult and Lyncher) AND mafia...

But this was something that Comm considered in the early game?

I assume ASP is still the same.

And there it is - the person who hasn't talked since Page 15 (and barely at that rate) is now assumed to be the same faction. The entire neighbor possibility could just be a weird set-up for Comm's 1-shot Cult Leader (which again is why he's pushing that 1-shot v/s 2-shot deal and has never commented on what happened to the second shot of his neighborizor deal)

You can also take into account 1SVT's comments which correlated to a role PM slip. I'm willing to believe there were more truth than lies in his words. It's more logical that there's not two mafias but rather one mafia and one cult (which would act moreso like an SK and a cult)

Vote: Comm

This is Cult Leader.

Had another thought, the cult leader will likely flip correctly, but the "disciple" will likely not.

I read this a couple times before figuring out what this might mean - you mean that Ali's role was to figure out what people were before being culted, no?

So Hiraki being recruited is VERY high.

Yes, yes - we get it. You want to lynch me that badly.

[Hiraki]

I rescind the second shot part of the neighborizor deal since I have been misreading. Everything else is still in tact.

[Vaxkiller]

Had another thought, the cult leader will likely flip correctly, but the "disciple" will likely not.

I read this a couple times before figuring out what this might mean - you mean that Ali's role was to figure out what people were before being culted, no?

So Hiraki being recruited is VERY high.

Yes, yes - we get it. You want to lynch me that badly.

No im saying when when the cult leader brings someone into a cult, dont they still have thier same role and everything? I'm assuming it just changes their alignment, and usually flips just show their original PM role/alignment, not that they were culted later on, hence the coroner role.

That cult mention by comm early on is pretty damning. I can understand jester talk, but cult talk does seem out of the blue. It would be like someone mentioning werevolves or aliens before any flips.

I'm sold on a comm lynch

VOTE: comm

[Vaxkiller]

Now we have to wait until edo and ASP show up.

[CommKnight]

@Vax, real talk, are you recruited? You keep sheeping everyone who ever votes me.

1.) Mentioning cults is NAI at best. I've had previous experience with them in games and it's much more common than a lot of other 3rd parties. Which when we talk about the possibility of 2 opposing factions. Cult is one of the first that comes to mind.

2.) Where is Hiraki getting this 2-shot thing from me out of? He is the ONLY one who has claimed to have a 2-shot ability which I believe is 100% bullshit and poor attempt at a fake claim. Also his role basically adds onto the increasing town roles that make mafia useless.

3.) Remember, there was a SHOT D1 which is still unaccounted for from current claims and flips. Unless you are suggesting I both recruited and shot someone D1? That's a bit far fetched.

4.) ASP is not cult and thus knows I am not cult. The only one who'd vote me is Edo and you have already tried painting him as the bad guy here Hiraki.

Also Vax, I assume you're a VI or recruited if there is a cult this game. You have not helped very much this game. You refused to help me lynch a mafia poisoner. Now you refuse to help me lynch the prime baddie candidate out of everyone here.

I know Edo got more sense in him though. So I'm not worried. Town will win this game.

[CommKnight]

Doesn't seem hard for people to sell Vax on my lynch. First a mafia poisoner and now the remaining baddie.

Honestly, I'm doubting there being a cult at all. It's a bastard game. So good possibility that the roles are there to throw us off a bit.

Hiraki hangs today.

[Hiraki]

Just a nail in the coffin, Comm always accuses me of lurking but has never talks about how ASP has

9

posts in this game.

[CommKnight]

Vax is hopeless. It comes down to Edo making the right choice. Also why would I care about someone I am pretty damn sure is 100% town.

As I said, your 2-shot ability is completely off from literally EVERYONE's roles so far. Also why would I push for survivor lynch if I was cult? I'd personally let him live and win by outnumbering town the very next day.

Also need a claim from Edo when he gets online.

[Hiraki]

You're pretty "damn sure" that someone is town after a QT that might be a little longer than their actual posting?

[CommKnight]

Isn't that funny? Edo, GL and ASP all have less posts than you and 1SVT but I TR them and SR you and him. It's almost like this gut thing is on a roll with correct reads or something. Like you must be frustrated beyond belief at the moment that it's going to be hard to escape the noose come tomorrow when if you manage somehow to mislynch me that you'll have to explain "Oh I was wrong, it must be ASP or Edo" Then not only will you have to mislynch them. You'll then have to mislynch for a THIRD day in a row.

Because I don't think there is a cult in this game. You have to manage to mislynch THREE people. Why not just give up? You can't win under these circumstances unless Vax is your cult buddy.

[Hiraki]

Because I'm not cult nor scum, that's why I won't ever give up on winning this game.

Great dodge btw

[Vaxkiller]

@Vax, real talk, are you recruited? You keep sheeping everyone who ever votes me.

1.) Mentioning cults is NAI at best. I've had previous experience with them in games and it's much more common than a lot of other 3rd parties. Which when we talk about the possibility of 2 opposing factions. Cult is one of the first that comes to mind.

2.) Where is Hiraki getting this 2-shot thing from me out of? He is the ONLY one who has claimed to have a 2-shot ability which I believe is 100% bullshit and poor attempt at a fake claim. Also his role basically adds onto the increasing town roles that make mafia useless.

3.) Remember, there was a SHOT D1 which is still unaccounted for from current claims and flips. Unless you are suggesting I both recruited and shot someone D1? That's a bit far fetched.

4.) ASP is not cult and thus knows I am not cult. The only one who'd vote me is Edo and you have already tried painting him as the bad guy here Hiraki.

Also Vax, I assume you're a VI or recruited if there is a cult this game. You have not helped very much this game. You refused to help me lynch a mafia poisoner. Now you refuse to help me lynch the prime baddie candidate out of everyone here.

I know Edo got more sense in him though. So I'm not worried. Town will win this game.

Real talk? No im not culted.

1. Can you point to some of these games?
2. It's bastard, and to me it seems like a good way to balance town out.
3. For the unclaimed shot.

It seems unlikely to me that it was town aligned, its possible but seems unlikely. Town COULD have shot then become recruited and decided against claiming the shot? But why? They shot as town in teh first place, so why not claim it? So, probably not town, unless its a very embarrassed town member for screwing things up, but taht would require them to make up a fake role too! So, even more unlikely.

So that leaves us with scum. So I see the makeup right now as:
1 scum
1-2 cult
2-3 town

The good news is that when 1SVT flipped he flipped as 1 shot, so the other scum likely already used thier 1 shot as well, so we shouldnt have any more kills, only lynches, so the game is in town's hands!

4. You probably dont have a neighborizer, you are likely just a cult recruiter. Why would a neighborhood run out of time? Maybe you get it as part of your cult? But only for a period of time?

[Vaxkiller]

So about to lose our Neighbourizer PT due to it only lasting 2 day cycles. That's fine, I trust ASP and he can out his role if he wishes.

Why don't you give us his role and he gives us his name?

[Vaxkiller]

Also, let him tell us who he used it.

[CommKnight]

Let's assume for a moment you're even telling the truth. Your role is useless. Posioned targets from my experience cannot be healed. The kill D1 happened in the DAY before your action would take action.

GL was even hesitant because he thought there might not be a cult. Just that his role SUGGESTS there is a cult.

And once again, we're back to, WHO MADE THE KILL D1. Certainly not me. So who then? -> Hiraki. 100% Guarantee it!

Also, seeing as he already used his role and we're down to the neck here waiting for Edo to get in and lynch Hiraki. ASP is Barney Gumble, a 1-shot roleblocker. Which AGAIN, does not add up with Hiraki's claim. A 1-shot BP, a 2-shot doctor and a 1-shot roleblocker. All 3 able to stop mafia kills/actions and in ASP's case, even stop cult from recruiting.

Hiraki's is the only claim that doesn't add up. I don't know why the neighbourhood is limited to 2 days but nor am I going to outguess the mod on balance of it being 2-days PT.

Anyway, from your actions Vax, if there is a cult, you're with Hiraki, if there isn't Hiraki is just the final baddie and you're being a VI as usual when compared to previous days.

I'm done talking until Edo gets in here and claims. Because honestly, this is going to be like me 1v1'ing 1SVT. Nothing productive is done and Vax like always chirping in "Yeah Comm, you're cult." When last time it was "Yeah Comm, you're scum and ASP is probably your buddy.". Honestly I'm just tired of the VI play and am glad Edo is actually good at this game.

[Vaxkiller]

@comm

I asked just for the role, but its too late now. It wouldn't have been a hard tell anyway, but I wanted the name to come from ASP himself to make sure you weren't making up stuff for him.

@ASP Please confirm and also tell us who you blocked and waht night.

@Hiroki Does your role PM explain what the doc does? Can you give us some more wording from it?

[Hiraki]

I'm phone posting (I'll get to your question later Vax) but Comm has just about blamed every bad action in this game to me since D2.

[Hiraki]

@Hiroki Does your role PM explain what the doc does? Can you give us some more wording from it?

It's a simple doc - I don't think I can block any cult recruits, just night deaths. I clarified this internally with the mod once GL brought his role up.

Here are the current inconsistencies in what Comm is saying:

He is the ONLY one who has claimed to have a 2-shot ability which I believe is 100% bullshit and poor attempt at a fake claim.

OK - which is his opinion. I can't deny this - but let's take a step back.

Either way, I think we should get claims out onto the table today.

I then proceed to claim:

Before I push on, I want Vax and Edo to claim though. My guess? We can probably find the liar pretty damn quickly since all the roles are fitting their characters flavour wise one way or another.

At 476, Comm sees nothing wrong with my claim. Before he tries to claim anything funny (i.e. fastposting) that post was a half-hour after my claim and it directly correlated with the questions that proceeded after it.

If Comm had a problem about my claim, why did he wait to say anything about it rather than just call me out right away?

The answer is pretty clear that he's trying to fabricate my claim in order to speed the game up. If he really wanted /all/ claims on the table, as he insinuated in 476, then he could have the full picture and choose from there. Instead, he calls my claim fake based off of the fact that I am 2-shot while everyone else is 1-shot. That's a

very

convincing argument.

Comm also likes to bring up that I TR'd 1SVT while he was doing so great in leading a wagon against him. Let's examine two sides of this:

1) Was anyone persuaded by Comm's argument to SR/vote 1SVT?
2) Did anyone, other than me, TR 1SVT?

1:

If you look at the vote logs, there's two people who are voting 1 Shot VT for the entire game before his lynch and that is ASP (A) and GL (B)

A:

This case on Vax is terrible. "Because he reacted badly during X, he'll react badly during Y." WHAT? "I don't buy being framed..." That's all WIFOM at this point.

VOTE: 1-Shot Vanilla Town

RVS vote.

I'm comfortable with my vote on 1SVT.

Comm's argument regarding the 180 on Vax was something I hadn't really paid mind to due to a bad case to begin with, but I don't see where the original argument was going that being framed wasn't in the realm of possibility for him.

All the debate was doing was introducing WIFOM, and to introduce it further in the form of a vote based upon seemingly no other reason was terrible. It made me curious at first about a night action confirming it, but unvoting (hadn't really paid attention to the context) negated that possibility and proved to me that it was JUST a bad case.

ASP - can you clarify this? I don't think this made a lot of sense to me going through it the first time and it doesn't now - just didn't comment on it then because I didn't care about that argument.

B:

I don't like Comm's push/vote on 1SVT, 1SVT looks pretty town from where I'm sitting.

You're going to call me scum for being buddy with someone who FLIPPED TOWN agreed was town in that moment. I have to wonder - what was your read on GL?

Out of a GL/Edo comparison. I'd say GL is more likely town than Edo.

Oh, ok. So you're now literally accusing me of things that people who were town did that are now scummy.

1SVT played a brilliant scum game - probably could've made it to endgame if he didn't make the IC call.

2:

Guilty Lion, as stated above, TR'd 1SVT before his IC theory.
Vax doesn't give a read but I'll admit that I'm Control+F at this point.
Edosurist calls 1SVT town all game.
ASP agrees with Comm that 1SVT is scum.
Charloux's reads are unreliable since he is a survivor.

Back to your buddying theory, if there's anyone buddying anyone - it's you and ASP.

The only one who'd vote me is Edo and you have already tried painting him as the bad guy here Hiraki.

Literally just TR'd him due to his actions in D3. There's a 0% chance that Edo is scum or cult.

I've had previous experience with them in games and it's much more common than a lot of other 3rd parties. Which when we talk about the possibility of 2 opposing factions. Cult is one of the first that comes to mind.

Two things:

1) I'd also like to see this experience because I have now looked at all of your completed games and there is

nothing

cult related from Mafiascum. That also testifies to how "common" they are.

2) Yeah? 2 Opposing factions in a

MAFIA

game and the first thing you start to talk about is a cult?

3.) Remember, there was a SHOT D1 which is still unaccounted for from current claims and flips. Unless you are suggesting I both recruited and shot someone D1? That's a bit far fetched.

I'm not going to comment on the setup as I'm aware of it. There has been major discussion in the Mafia Discussion forums about how these sorts of discussions are usually led by anti-town personnel and used to their advantage to try and hide the truth.

You have not helped very much this game. You refused to help me lynch a mafia poisoner. Now you refuse to help me lynch the prime baddie candidate out of everyone here.

Anytime that ANYONE is against you this game, you have repeatedly called them out as if they were a bad person. Reading up on both of your town games (Bill Wurtz, and Timeshift; since I was looking for this cult stuff anyway) you don't do this there to any extent or means. You'll say that a faction has screwed up but you'll never pinpoint a player like you have done here.

GL was even hesitant because he thought there might not be a cult. Just that his role SUGGESTS there is a cult.

Actually, he was pretty adamant that there was a cult based on his role - just that he didn't get the setup, much like how you are trying to twist it now.

[Vaxkiller]

We basically needs edo's vote on comm, because ASP will likely not vote him.

[Vaxkiller]

We will have to wait until hes prodded again in a day

[CommKnight]

We basically needs edo's vote on comm, because ASP will likely not vote him.

Good luck with that. Edo could've lynched me before but didn't.

Also LOL at Hiraki's attempt of a case on me and failing... yet again. It's like hey, if I don't say it immediately it's like something doesn't really cross my mind until after the fact or something. Geez, almost like I develop my reads as I THINK about it further or something! MAGICAL.

Vax, if you are town and when Hiraki flips scum and it endgames into a town win. I'm going to smack you post-game for believing BOTH anti-town. Like you're getting suckered into it bad. I want you, to explain in your own words, how a cult (who we'd assume has 2 members by now) AND that shot happened D1. 2 cult, 2 scum and 1 Survivor? That would mean town was outnumbered D1 and that currently there's 3 anti-town alive. Think about that for a moment. My guess is GL's role was to throw us off.

I mean seriously, 1 scum + 2 cult left? You'd need scum to help lynch 1 of the cult and then get one or the other to help lynch cult/mafia and then lynch the final baddie as town. Don't you think that is a bit... far fetched? Like you gotta reach pretty far to assume 2 cult, 2 mafia, 1 survivor and 4 town total.

At that, Ned Flanders being Cult? Really? XD

[A Simple Plan]

Yeah, I'm Barney Gumble, a 1-shot RB. I targeted GuiltyLion night two.

I really don't see the case on Comm right now, but I think Hiraki is the wrong push. If anyone, I think my top pick for anti-town right now is Vax.

Re: 517: basically the bold portion of my 237 is saying that I hadn't read into changing his read so drastically so quickly as scum-motivated at the time, because the case 1shot had on Vax was poor to begin with- it was a fair thought that he'd back out of it after realizing that it was a bad vote inspired by nothing but WIFOM. I really couldn't wrap my head around his argument for scum!Vax because there was nothing remotely town-motivated about it.

His push was "it doesn't seem likely that Vax was framed. He did it." There was no way of knowing if he was framed or not, and basin an entire case off of it and trying to lynch someone off of it was incredibly suspicious. And 1shot didnt seem to consider it even remotely plausible that he was framed- basically tunneling onto him.

On another note, I don't think Comm is a cult leader; if he is, the only plausible partner was me, and if that's the case I was never notified. I think his insistence on there not being a cult is a bit suspicious, though. It's possible he's a recruit.

[A Simple Plan]

Another thing I noticed?

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

.

Vote: Comm

VOTE: comm

That's L-1 so..

VOTE: Comm

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Please hold!

[Ser Arthur Dayne]

Vote Count 4.01

Vaxkiller (0) -

Commknight (3) -

Hiraki, Vaxkiller, A Simple Plan

A Simple Plan (0) -

Edosurist (0) -

Hiraki (1) -

Commknight

Not Voting (1) – Edosurist

With 5 alive, it takes 3 to lynch.

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-04-08 22:20:00)

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