Micro 706: Restrictive Mafia (Over)

[Not_Mafia]

Sorry ZZZX

VOTE: Edo

[Antihuman]

ZZZX grandstanding and playing on us being familiar with each other is scum ZZZX, lynch Edo tomorrow

So you thought Edos was ZZZX's partner and now that he flipped town you still wanna unconditionally see Edos dead?
Seems like a setup, especially that Lycan was in a weak position and the only reason to kill him over more prolific players was to make Edos look bad.
This also could mean there's scum between widely townread players, in which case my gut says Socrates.

VOTE: N_M

[Umlaut]

VOTE: Not_Mafia

Do not put this above L-2.

If N_M is scum he will probably self-hammer, to leave us with even fewer posts tomorrow. I will view anyone giving an early L-1 with extreme suspicion.

---

Giant FoS: TheRealGin-N-Tonic

Assuming Not_Mafia flips red (and I do assume that), we need to take a fresh look at TheReal-Gin-N-Tonic in light of his associatives there. Take a look at his second post yesterday:

Not_Mafia, I've actually played two games with him, the first game was also my first game with Lycan, btw it was Spyro themed something. In that game we were actually neighbors and I didn't trust him at all but he was town. The other game I played with him was in Accounting Mafia and he was actually able to successfully lynch the last scum in MyLo.

For this very reason, I stress completely that N_M is not a useless player. Part of the reason I started out with N_M as my vote is because he is unfairly the easiest vote to put on and people can hide behind policy. The reason I'm policy testing is because last time I should have trusted my gut and caught scum after a post like this:
viewtopic.php?p=8659834#p8659834

In a micro where literally one lynch is Mylo causing, pushing policy is just scummy as shit, not sorry.

...

As we move along in the post, my attitude towards [Antihuman] changes as I did like his assessment of N_M. The reason I like it will be self-explanatory when I do my bit on N_M as I share the view of N_M being likely town.

...

Now, it's evident I don't like policy lynching in micro's so I'm interested in WHY you [Umlaut] would want to lynch N_M. What I dig is that it wasn't a shade post as to why you voted N_M. You brought up past games and examples of why you believed in what you did, so I can come to an understanding why you'd default to that.

...

With N_M, I like the honesty and almost puzzling tone N_M gives off in post 12. It's reading to me that he's town and he is just doing what he does normally. okay fight me for buzzwords but he says "anti-town" and not scummy. I like it because he's thinking what is making him bad town and not a scummy scummer.

Note that Gin is talking down the N_M wagon on multiple fronts. In particular, the wagon exists more as a statement of willingness to eventually policy-lynch, but Gin is arguing not just against policy-lynching but that N_M is in fact town. And why exactly does he think this? On inspection I find his reasons hard to take seriously; it would be better if he just said "because gut." Gin's reasons for townreading N_M, condensed from the above, are:

• He wrote a one-line post asking "What did I do wrong?"
  
• He said anti-town and not scummy.
  
• That... that's it, really.

He also likes Antihuman just for agreeing with him that N_M is town, even though Antihuman's basis for townreading him is markedly different and even though Gin knows perfectly well that the reasons for Antihuman's townread there are not actually alignment-indicative for N_M.

Next, he moves his vote off of N_M after (what I would still call) an extremely sketchy L-1 vote by ZZZX. This is totally reasonable. Of course you would want to vote ZZZX after something like that.

VOTE: Lycan

Oh, wait, he didn't. He voted Lycan. Well, that's reasonable too, I guess, since he claims Lycan was a greater scumread and we still had plenty of time in the day. And I suppose he could just be avoiding an early L-1 as a matter of principle.

VOTE: ZZZX

Wait, that was an L-1 after all (and an undeclared one at that) so I guess not.

There's another curious thing about Gin's vote: the timing. Gin already said in 13 that he wanted Lycan to eat rope, and thought N_M was town, but didn't move his vote until 25. What changed? He indirectly cites Lycan's one post in the interim, but look at the timing:

• Lycan posts at 2017-04-29 18:19
  
• 15 hours pass, during which Gin is active on MS
  
• ZZZX votes N_M at 2017-04-29 09:35
  
• 14 more hours pass, during which Gin is mostly
  not
  active on MS (one post at 10:24, all others are within minutes of the next thing)
  
• Gin votes Lycanfire at 2017-04-30 23:50, based on a one-line argument that I don't think took him 29 hours to devise.

Something changed

in the time Gin was inactive

that caused him to move his vote when he did. Maybe what changed is that he saw a wagon sitting at L-1 for quite a while without anyone moving off, and decided it was too risky to leave it, so he moved his vote to Lycanfire because he felt his stated reads gave him an excuse to do so. He tellingly

did not

vote ZZZX even though this is clearly what got his attention, because he wasn't looking to update his reads, he was looking for a reason to get off the N_M wagon. He then moved to ZZZX when he realized that was the cleaner vote.

Gin also showed an inconsistent opinion of early L-1:

WTF even is this? Like literally explain your logic here because I'm not following you.

I'm curious because you put him on L-1 with 6 days left and not even a full page of content on the board.

The people I do suspect on the wagons would be Umlaut, ZZZX, Prof and Lycan. Now being honest and applying my own town reads of Umlaut and Prof, it leaves my scum reads of ZZZX and Lycan both sitting on the wagons to separate themselves from each other's lynches in case one goes down.
VOTE: ZZZX

Six days is two short, but five days is just right? Hunh.

Gin showed up one more time, minutes before lock, to offer a read list and quote me on the subject of N_M. The reads themselves are mostly in line with his previous ones (except for the part where Antihuman is in the second lowest tier now?). I'm not entirely sure about the motive for quoting me, but if I'm reading correctly Gin is doubling down on the N_M townread after the hammer. This would be the correct play for a scum!Gin with a lot of town cred to burn. Conversely, I'd expect town!Gin to have his faith shaken by that ridiculously anti-town hammer, at least to the point where he would want to

think

about it before reasserting that N_M is town.

Now, what

doesn't

fit this theory is the part where Gin pushed a Lycanfire wagon only for Lycan to turn up dead before it ever had a chance to play out. It would be one thing if people had weighed in and proven unwilling to vote Lycan, but actually they were just occupied with ZZZX at that moment. I would expect scum!Gin to try and push it again the next day instead of just shooting him.

I can think of two ways to reconcile this:

1. I could just chalk it up to deliberate misdirection.
   
2. I could observe that Lycan was the only player (other than N_M) who hadn't declared some degree of townread on Gin.

But honestly I don't think it has to be explained away. Players make decisions I don't understand all the time, and Lycan would have been a strange choice for anyone, not just Gin.

---

I would really appreciate feedback on this case beyond "hey, good case" or "hey, shitty case."

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

lol I quoted you talking directly about N_M meta and how he quick hammers and he bloody quickhammered. That was there so if i died, I brought up that "hey he's doing the scum meta that Umlaut said."

As for the XXXZ vote, I was switching over because of this magical thing called XXXZ being my second scum read, I didn't care that you posted literally a hot minute before me, I still was going to place my vote.

Also timing, I forgot to place down a vote and I was going to go waste a post because I forgot to place down a vote. I would save it for later.

Honestly I find it bullshit for you to scum read me for timing. IN A GAME WHERE WE CAN'T FUCKING SPORADICALLY POST.

Also, voting for me is just something I rarely do.

viewtopic.php?p=8898628&user_select%5B% ... 6#p8898628

Take a look at the shiny mod ISO, you'll see a pretty little Gin sitting in the Not Voting for like 27 vote counts.

Also, both Lycan and XXXZ are both flipped town. That means yesterday I could have still pushed Lycan without a problem. Also you're saying it's telling that I didn't vote XXXZ and I don't know why you're fabricating some story when I literally answer

Fuck it I have posts to do it and no way do I see me needing to one post per day with 6 posts left.

I moved to Lycan because that was my main scum read, like he was my number 1 compared to ZZZX had 1 vote on him and Lycan had none? so it wasn't like I started a vanity wagon on Lycan with an ZZZX wagon already being built.

I will say you are correct in how I was shaken by the town hammer. My reaction was a blur of "oh quick hammer..thats anti-town...quick hammer Umlaut talked about N_M, and a rush to find the quote explaining how scum!N_M quick hammered and didn't do shit."

You know the saying "life flashing before your eyes"? That's how I felt about N_M after yesterday.

[Socrates]

My heart sank when I saw Umlaut alive today, because Not_Mafia has 5 posts today to convince anyone that he's town, and anyone even half-paying attention would know that Umlaut wasn't going to vote for anyone but.

ZZZX grandstanding and playing on us being familiar with each other is scum ZZZX, lynch Edo tomorrow

So you thought Edos was ZZZX's partner and now that he flipped town you still wanna unconditionally see Edos dead?
Seems like a setup, especially that Lycan was in a weak position and the only reason to kill him over more prolific players was to make Edos look bad.
This also could mean there's scum between widely townread players, in which case my gut says Socrates.

VOTE: N_M

Assume scum deliberately shoot off the wagon. Who do they kill?

[Umlaut]

Well, this game is even deader than usual.

Spoiler: Response to TheRealGin-N-Tonic

First of all, I note that I've touched a nerve. You're not content to rebut my case, you are trying to discredit me in general by saying I'm "fabricating some story" etc. If you think my case is fabricated you should come out and say I'm scum.

lol I quoted you talking directly about N_M meta and how he quick hammers and he bloody quickhammered. That was there so if i died, I brought up that "hey he's doing the scum meta that Umlaut said."

I guess this makes sense. Obviously we weren't

both

going to die and obviously I wasn't going to forget that N_M was pattern-matching his scum meta, but you were hurried so you could easily not have thought of that at the moment.

As for the XXXZ vote, I was switching over because of this magical thing called XXXZ being my second scum read, I didn't care that you posted literally a hot minute before me, I still was going to place my vote.

First question: why vote your second scumread instead of your first, with five days left on the clock and many posts to spare?

Second question:

especially

why vote said second scumread to L-1 when you have just called someone out for an early L-1 (the very person you vote, in fact)?

(Let me cut off one response in particular: this doesn't contradict my statement that your voting Lycanfire when you did, as opposed to voting him at another time, or voting ZZZX at that time, rings artificial.)

Also timing, I forgot to place down a vote and I was going to go waste a post because I forgot to place down a vote. I would save it for later.

Honestly I find it bullshit for you to scum read me for timing. IN A GAME WHERE WE CAN'T FUCKING SPORADICALLY POST.

The fact that posts are limited does not grant all-purpose immunity from having your timing questioned. Entirely aside from the fact that you had more posts available to you than most of us, no one can read 25 and seriously believe you were

waiting to have enough to say.

It's among the shortest and shallowest non-N_M posts in the game, and the only thing in it that you couldn't have said earlier was your two lines of "wtf are you doing" to ZZZX. This is not suspect in itself, but it makes "I don't want to waste posts" seem disingenuous as a defense.

Funny thing is, there is at least one

really good

reason for town!Gin to move his vote right then: to avoid his townread being lynched. In your last post you still could have said "I posted because I realized he was at L-1 and I was still voting him" and that would have helped you, but you didn't say that.

Also, voting for me is just something I rarely do.

viewtopic.php?p=8898628&user_select%5B%5D=26156#p8898628

Take a look at the shiny mod ISO, you'll see a pretty little Gin sitting in the Not Voting for like 27 vote counts.

First of all: I checked the mod's ISO as well as yours. Out of the 17 normal vote counts involving you:

• you were voting in 6, for 4 different people;
  
• you were not voting in 9 during day 1, because you had explicitly unvoted;
  
• you were not voting in 2 during day 2, but you never posted except to replace out during day 2.

Firstly, there is a difference between not voting, and voting a townread. Secondly, there is a difference between actively deciding not to use your vote, and passively failing to use your vote.

Also, both Lycan and XXXZ are both flipped town. That means yesterday I could have still pushed Lycan without a problem. Also you're saying it's telling that I didn't vote XXXZ and I don't know why you're fabricating some story when I literally answer...

Regarding "I could have still pushed Lycan without a problem" I addressed that point already. I think the fact that Lycan died at night is a point in your favor, I just don't think it's ten points in your favor.

Regarding your quoted 34, the whole reason I asked that question was because I was confused as to why ZZZX's post would suddenly inspire you to vote Lycanfire, which was how 25 felt to me when I read it -- in fact I kept having to remind myself that you had voted him and not ZZZX. Your answer didn't help me out with that and is, in fact, irrelevant to the thing you're trying to call me out for.

I will say you are correct in how I was shaken by the town hammer. My reaction was a blur of "oh quick hammer..thats anti-town...quick hammer Umlaut talked about N_M, and a rush to find the quote explaining how scum!N_M quick hammered and didn't do shit."

You know the saying "life flashing before your eyes"? That's how I felt about N_M after yesterday.

You were so shaken you moved N_M down to the

second

tier of your readlist?

What is your actual read on N_M right now? What is your actual read on anyone right now?

Spoiler: Response to Socrates

My heart sank when I saw Umlaut alive today,

because Not_Mafia has 5 posts today to convince anyone that he's town, and anyone even half-paying attention would know that Umlaut wasn't going to vote for anyone but.

Fair.

But what do you make of that? Do you think it makes N_M more likely town? Do you think it makes me more likely scum?

Assume scum deliberately shoot off the wagon. Who do they kill?

I'd expect Smiggles, but I might just be projecting my own townread onto everyone else.

This is where I stand on the game:

1. Socrates and Smiggles are town.
   
2. N_M is scum.
   
3. N_M and Gin have the same alignment (regardless of 2).

After today it becomes very hard to interact, so if you want to argue with me about where I stand, now is the time. I already know Gin doesn't like it, can someone else comment?

[Socrates]

We need prods.

@Umlaut: It makes me paranoid that NM is going to flip town and we're being played. You read Gin as NM's buddy, but my mind actually went in the opposite direction: Gin deliberately put someone at L-1 to bait a quickhammer from a town NM.

[Edosurist]

Sorry it's been so long since I've posted. I just haven't been able to commit what I expected I would be able to. That, a V/LA and a surprise lynch got in the way.

To catch up, NM's quickhammer was bad.
The Lycan NK seems really weird to me. His scumpool was literally me, ZZZX, and Socrates. Since I know I'm not scum and Socrates wasn't really at risk of being lynched, the NK looks like misdirection to me. I can only see Anti or Hamm benefiting from a misdirection NK at the moment.

Umlaut's case on Gin is meh. I don't like that he's still on the policy-lynch of NM but simultaneously creating a case on Gin. Like, if you think he's scum and not mislynch bait, explain why. (I know I'm guilty of this, but in my defense, I would've elaborated some had I posted more.) I know he explicitly asked that we not just say that in response to his case, but like, I can't right now. I'll explain why I think that tomorrow or the next time I post.

I hate to say it but my current mental capabilities kinda leave me at that. I feel like this is a waste of my few posts today but otherwise I'll get a prod. I promise I'll have a real post tomorrow.

Gut with little thought says Umlaut, NM, Hamm. Socrates if I'm wrong somewhere.

Feel free to criticize me for how weak this post is. I apologize. It's very scatterbrained.

[Nexus]

Votecount 2.1:

Edosurist (1)

- Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia (2)

- Antihuman, Umlaut

Not voting (4)

- Socrates, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Edosurist, Prof Hamm T Smiggles III

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Friday 12th May 2017, at 9pm - (expired on 2017-05-12 21:00:00). Prof Hamm T Smiggles III, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Not_Mafia and Antihuman have been prodded.

Posts Today

Spoiler:

Antihuman	1
Prof Hamm T Smiggles III	1
Umlaut	2
Not_Mafia	1
TheRealGin-N-Tonic	1
Edosurist	1
Socrates	2

[Not_Mafia]

Well I thought I knew ZZZX well enough to call his alignment, I was wrong, sorry

[Umlaut]

I'm overdue to post again and there are still players who haven't posted at all today. This sort of inactivity is fantastic for scum because it relieves them of the need to say anything that could incriminate them. So if you're town and you like winning, do something.

@Socrates

@Umlaut: It makes me paranoid that NM is going to flip town and we're being played. You read Gin as NM's buddy, but my mind actually went in the opposite direction: Gin deliberately put someone at L-1 to bait a quickhammer from a town NM.

I suppose I could believe that. Some of my case has nothing to do with N_M

per se.

But I actually find this concerning because it seems to support a read of "If N_M is scum that reflects badly on Gin, and if N_M is town that reflects badly on Gin." That can't be right, or if it is you should just be assuming he looks bad and probably voting him.

@Edosurist

Feel free to criticize me for how weak this post is. I apologize. It's very scatterbrained.

Don't mind if I do!

(Actually it's better than a lot of of what's been posted today.)

Umlaut's case on Gin is meh. I don't like that he's still on the policy-lynch of NM but simultaneously creating a case on Gin. Like, if you think he's scum and not mislynch bait, explain why. (I know I'm guilty of this, but in my defense, I would've elaborated some had I posted more.) I know he explicitly asked that we not just say that in response to his case, but like, I can't right now. I'll explain why I think that tomorrow or the next time I post.

Well, I'm looking forward to the explanation. In the meantime I think I've made my position on N_M pretty clear. I don't expect N_M to be verbose and helpful, but I do assume he plays to his win condition. That assumption alone makes him scum based on that hammer. Anyone could tell it was premature and unwarranted.

Even if N_M knew ZZZX was scum

it would have been premature, given the mechanics of the game and the silencing effect of progressing to the next day.

If you have a better idea, propose a different lynch and argue it and maybe I'll follow. Don't just tell me you don't like my vote.

I'm interested in your Hamm read in particular because I have her as hard town. Could you give some detail here in your next post?

-----------------------------

One more thing re. N_M: If we don't lynch scum today, tomorrow is lylo. If you want to lynch someone else over N_M, you should consider whether having him around at lylo will be good or bad for the town. Also consider whether you're willing to lose to a scum!N_M who plays like this. And, once you've considered those, take a realistic look at your own track record for catching scum, and ask yourself just how confident you can justifiably be that the person you want to lynch is scum and N_M is town.

-----------------------------

I note that three people (TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Socrates, Edosurist) have posted but haven't voted. Edosurist's scum pool is pretty big, and he should really say who in that pool he actually wants to lynch. Socrates should back up his Gin read with a vote if he's serious about it. And Gin... has posted nothing but self-defense, and needs to actually say who he thinks is scum now.

Also:

Questions

• Dr. Smiggles:
  Can you elaborate on your townread of Lycanfire? Because I didn't like his tone or his thinking. Also, what do you think looks towny about me, because I'm pretty sure I haven't done much yet to merit a read one way or the other?
  
• Not_Mafia:
  You've given (what I assume are) some scumreads; who are your top townreads and why?
  
• Edosurist:
  How do you distinguish between N_M "hiding behind his meta" and just having that meta? How would you expect him to play differently if he were town?

These questions still stand.

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

I want to lynch someone who hasn't posted at all because fuck you if you can't provide content this easily.

Also lots baby, only one I'm interested is N_M, Anti or Proff

[Nexus]

BlackVoid replaces Prof Hamm T Smiggles III

[Nexus]

Votecount 2.2:

Edosurist (1)

- Not_Mafia

Not_Mafia (2)

- Antihuman, Umlaut

Not voting (4)

- Socrates, TheRealGin-N-Tonic, Edosurist, BlackVoid

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch. Deadline is Friday 12th May 2017, at 9pm - (expired on 2017-05-12 21:00:00). Everyone is being prodded, Antihuman is being replaced.

Posts Today

Spoiler:

Antihuman	1
BlackVoid	0
Umlaut	3
Not_Mafia	2
TheRealGin-N-Tonic	2
Edosurist	1
Socrates	2

[BlackVoid]

Hi everyone. Heads up, I have no experience playing with anyone here. I also disagree with my predecessor's insistence on keeping the number of posts hidden. I think general transparency is a good idea - I'm 8-5-3.

Not_Mafia:

Not_Mafia is... mafia. Quickhammering when he was also being thrown around as a lynch possibility pretty much confirms him as scum. I think he just wanted to get a mislynch in before the tides turned on him or his partner. Since I only have 5 posts today and 3 from tomorrow, I think we should use the time and posts we have to scumhunt for his partner so I won't vote him just yet.

Umlaut:

I doubt Umlaut is scum since I don't see him starting out advocating for a default lynch on Not_Mafia right at the beginning of the game.

Antihuman:

Antihuman's initial townread on Not_Mafia while weak would be risky for a partner to do. I don't think he'd put himself out there and explicitly townread Not_Mafia when he got himself under pressure in the first few posts of the game without first seeing if town would consider the possibility.

Socrates:

Slightly dislike Socrates first post where it seemed like he was already assuming Not_Mafia was scum and checking to see who he could tie to Not_Mafia. @Socrates, why were you looking for Not_Mafia's partners so early on in the game to the point where you were ruling out Antihuman and Umlaut in 14. If you were so sure to the point where you were looking for his partners, why wouldn't you vote Not_Mafia? Note that it could just be a general statement of ruling out certain pairs but it's weird that you picked N_M to start ruling pairs out. It could also be a roundabout excuse to position himself as not wanting to push Not_Mafia because he's scumreading Antihuman and saying that Not_Mafia isn't partnered as a towntell for Not_Mafia.

---

I got prodded so I'm going to get this post in so people can start engaging me and write up the rest of my thoughts in my next post. I think four would be quite enough to cover everything I want.

[Socrates]

I call associatives as I see them at all points, regardless of my reads on individual slots. POE is a powerful tool, especially in a game of this size. The fewer people that make sense as scum with Not Mafia, the more sense it makes for him to be town, and if he does flip scum, I know exactly where to look instead of having to do the whole "time to re-read his slot looking for buddies!" thing. I note your reasoning on those associatives are identical to what mine was.

@umlaut: no, no, I think you're conflating my reads with yours. I'm saying his behavior makes sense as scum indirectly manipulating a player he knows to be town. I don't actually think he would enable the quickhammer for a scum!NF, because he would know not to position himself in such a weak spot thats so close with a buddy that would be doomed to go down in flames. I reserve the right to be wrong, of course, but if NM flips scum I will want to look elsewhere. Does this make sense?

As NF himself, we kinda do have to lynch him today. I can't justify a real town-read on him for all the reasons you have gone over and I myself having seen him go for the Refuge of Audacity as scum too, as much as I hate being put in this situation.

Once again Edo does nothing for me. Maybe that should be a red flag at this point. @Edo, is it time to remind you to come back to "this"?

[Umlaut]

Posting only so I'm not replaced. I really haven't got much new to say.

@BlackVoid

It concerns me that all your reads are based on the N_M scumread. I think N_M is scum too but you really need to have some independent reads for the case where we're wrong.

@Socrates

Okay, thanks for making your position clearer re. N_M. That helps me.

It sounds like we're all agreed that N_M has to go, one way or the other. I don't object to anyone putting him at L-1 at this point.

I have one more post. I'm saving it in case I have to change my vote for some reason.

[Nexus]

Gamma Emerald takes it

[TheRealGin-N-Tonic]

VOTE: NM

[Gamma Emerald]

My catchup
Post 10: I have experience with a decent chunk of the player base here. Only one I don't is Edosurist
I believe NM is town since scum would very likely reserve their posts.
Think I'll go to the d1 lynch before trying to do any major sorting.
I really hate NM’s hammer but that’s a thing he does so *shrug*. NM did you hammer on purpose or by accident? Neither one will affect my read on you one way or the other I just want to know what happened.
I see it was intentional, I can get knowing him well enough to read him
I figured there’d be more content but apparently it's ALL mashed into spoilers.
@BlackVoid are you aware NM has a lolhammer meta?
I'll try to see if anyone is trying to be reserved at any point. I'd expect scum to lie low and when players get to their restrictions vote the easiest mislynch.

[Edosurist]

Edosurist: How do you distinguish between N_M "hiding behind his meta" and just having that meta? How would you expect him to play differently if he were town?

I literally don't know. Not gonna lie, I didn't realize we only have one day left (IRL and in game) until lylo if we mislynch, so I think I'm gonna hedge and vote for him. I also like BlackVoid's point regarding the quickhammer. Since I have no idea how to read the guy myself, I think this is a good reasoning to sheep and at least more substantial than "policy."

If NM flips town though, you'd probably be my strongest scumread.

Ignore what I was saying the other day about Umlaut. I read his case and subsequent rebuttal as an attack on Gin, but upon rereading it, you took issue with Gin questioning the legitimacy of your case and I think that's legitimate.

I got posts to burn with the deadline so close, so please ask me some questions. I want to see a couple more posts before I give any legit scumreads here. I'll probs respond to Gamma's post... which just came in via P-Edit.

This line had been for a vote on NM, but Gin took it.

P-Edit:
NM might have a lolhammer meta, but being a prolific poster does not make him town. He just kinda does whatever he wants and he's a regular shitposter, so that alone does not make him town. I say if the underlying motive looks like survivalism, it's best to assume that it was because there's no other good way to read him than by considering the raw motives.

I feel like I didn't explain that well, so ask me what I should elaborate on. I've got a post or two to burn.

[Not_Mafia]

Lynch Edo tomorrow

[BlackVoid]

I'll respond to the posts after mine first.

@Socrates (in response to your post 65): My issue with your associative hunting was that you did it way too early and it seemed unnatural. Can you point out games where you used associatives as town?

@Umlaut (in response to your post 66): Seeing as we have a limited number of posts tomorrow, I think it's worthwhile to get as many reads as possible based off of interactions with Not_Mafia. In normal circumstances I'd want to flip him first just to be absolutely sure I'm not wasting my time but in the scenario where Not_Mafia is not mafia, he would literally have been responsible for two mislynches and single-handed destruction of the game to the point where I'd immediately replace out of any games he joins for excessive trolling. On the other hand, if he's scum, his actions are at least understandable as playing to wincon.

@Gamma Emerald (in response to your post 69): See my explanation to Umlaut but I just can't believe that someone would intentionally try to ruin the entire point of a game. It seems like the mod wanted to run this to have a game without spamposting and everyone gave it their best effort and tried to play a legitimate game of mafia with as few posts as possible. I think it's a stretch to believe that someone would join, troll, and mess up everyone's effort by taking away both available mislynches in a Micro. But scum playing to their wincon is perfectly understandable. In any case, your vote is on Not_Mafia. Why leave it there if you think he's town. Also, if you think he's town, who is scum?

@Edosurist (in response to your post 70): Why would Umlaut be a strong scumread of yours in the event of an N_M townflip? Not sure I follow the logic. Mind elaborating?

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As for stuff before I replaced in, I haven't caught up entirely yet but I do have a question for TheRealGin-N-Tonic:

I don't understand your post 33. You quote the VC and say that NM and Edos are dueling town wagons and vote ZZZX. But at the time of your post, two people had voted ZZZX so when you voted him, it tied him as the top wagons. It seemed like you were saying that scum were happy with the gamestate but that wasn't the gamestate at the time you were saying it was. You actually joined a leading wagon. I don't know if I'm phrasing this correctly but does that make sense? Can you clarify what you were thinking at this point?

[Socrates]

@Socrates (in response to your post 65): My issue with your associative hunting was that you did it way too early and it seemed unnatural. Can you point out games where you used associatives as town?

Well, I only have one completed town game since I came back to the site, but quickly perusing day 1 of that game:

Spoiler:

MariaR reminds me of UncertainKitten. My intuition is that Scum!Maria would only condescend to me the way she did if she knew I was on the wrong trail, so I'd be surprised if she was scum WITH Not Chara.

Similarly, I'm town-reading Alisae, but scum!him would never respond to my case on NC the way he did if it was on a scumbuddy.

Socrates what do you make of NC's latests posts?

I like that they stepped back from looking at me specifically and looked at the followers on the wagon, something I had been watching for myself and exactly what they should be doing as town. Imperium was not particularly clear on why they voted NC in the first place, and I don't believe ever specified how they felt about my own read of NC, so this interaction

*

between the two was what I was hoping to see.

I had been lingering on NC for as long as I had because I wanted to ensure they were not just waiting for me to get distracted by a shiny object and go away, and getting independent confirmation that their activity level was not unusual went a long way towards alleviating that particular concern.

My suspicion will linger, but I'm now happy to move on to my next place of interest.

*(Emphasis on my focus on interactions)

By the way, unless there is some kind of meta-history of Nacho mis-reading Majif, Scum!Majif would only want to directly play chicken with him if they were scumbuddies.

It should go without saying that ball ownership should be counterclaimed with impunity.

I doubt Zaj and Clumsy aren't* scumbuddies.

*ARE

I don't think they are both scum, to be clear.

Deadline is in 15-ish hours. I'll be around to hammer in 12. Get your last words in.

[Gamma Emerald]

If NM flips Town I'll likely be looking at the people making excuses to vote him based on policy or whatever.