Micro 711: VJK (Game Over)

[Gamma Emerald]

I intended to write my case, forgot, and now am about to be able to get back on my computer so I'll wait until then to make it.

[Gamma Emerald]

Covering Sickofit posts first.

That escalated quickly.
I like it.

VOTE: A Simple Plan

Thats L-1

The vote that made me concerned. This lightly points to Sickslot scum, but my reaction heavily points to town. Why would I back off if I was scum? I had legitimate reason to be on the wagon, and others would be FOSed before me if it went through.

Nobody is talking . VOTE: Sickofit

All aboard the pain train.

This self-vote would be alright

if he did anything with it

. I assume he intended to execute Fong's Gambit here. there were definitely followers so he should have gotten something. So it's basically just posturing.

@ASP

Nobody has offered anyone worth anyone's time yet in this game.... why point ou wisdom of all people?

Challenging his push on me.

...looks like shade throwing to me

VOTE: ASP yeah I think I'll sit here for a while.

These reasons for voting ASP are ehhh, I think it's a stretch.

[lane0168]

VOTE: gamma

You both were on beeboy/hop. Gamma looked more fake with the whole hop towntell thing. Going through you both, it's impossible for me to make a confident decision.

So good luck to me.

[Gamma Emerald]

WHY

[Gamma Emerald]

Like
why the fuck would scum fish for a modkill on their partner
unless you can answer that I'm declaring you horrible at mafia

[MarioManiac4]

Votecount 3.1 (LYNCH!)

Gamma Emerald (2)- Hiraki, lane0168
Not Voting (1)- Gamma Emerald

With 3 alive, it takes 2 to lynch.

The leading wagon is Gamma Emerald who is at 2 votes (L-0)

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-06-21 19:05:13)

[MarioManiac4]

Gamma Emerald,

Vanilla Townie

, was lynched on Day 3!

[MarioManiac4]

A win condition has been achieved!

lane0168,

Vanilla Townie

, has been endgamed!

The

Mafia

team of Hiraki and Hopkirk have won the game! Congratulations to them!

[MarioManiac4]

Private Topics:

Mafia PT
Dead PT
Mod PT

Congratulations to the Mafia team! I made one major mod error this game; I initially sent Hiraki's Role PM to an account called "Hikari".
I hope you all enjoyed the game!

[Gamma Emerald]

Like
why the fuck would scum fish for a modkill on their partner
unless you can answer that I'm declaring you horrible at mafia

This is serious Lane
If you can't explain this I'm never trusting your scumhunting abilities again.

[Realeo]

My only complaint would be lane's decision too rushed. Like 11 days in clock.

But Hiraki's lynch is hard to be achieved given his less eracticnes so it's a gg wp for me.

Now, if only I sticked with my initial read with sickofit.

[Hopkirk]

Oh btw because of Hopkirk's trust tell push on me I should be obvtown.

Like
why the fuck would scum fish for a modkill on their partner
unless you can answer that I'm declaring you horrible at mafia

Like
why the fuck would scum fish for a modkill on their partner
unless you can answer that I'm declaring you horrible at mafia

This is serious Lane
If you can't explain this I'm never trusting your scumhunting abilities again.

You know a trust tell requires it to actually have a basis in prior games. Saying I was still accusing you of doing a trust tell after it was clear that you were speculating rather than using past games is awful logic/inherently wrong. I have no idea how you could conclude I still thought it was a trust tell after it demonstarbly was not (and I accepted this by talking about speculation).

You also seem to miss that I was saying

either

bad logic or a trust tell, hence when it can no longer be a trust tell by definition it becomes bad logic.

Also you clearly knew scum had daytalk, so if we were partners I could just ask you if you'd played with NM before. We were online at the same time, so could easily communicate there.

[Gamma Emerald]

Well I didn't think about that. I thought Lane was a good enough player to analyze interactions as-is and draw the right conclusion.
I was dead fucking wrong.

[MarioManiac4]

Despite the result of this game, I'm thinking this setup is actually townsided and Hiraki was just good enough to pull it off despite the odds. Town get an extra mislynch in what would usually be MYLO- and without the extra mislynch, just 6 VT + JK vs 2 goons is roughly balanced.
Maybe a 1-shot factional roleblock for the Mafia would make it more balanced?

[Realeo]

No. It's scumsided. 7-2 is hella scum sided to begin with. Me think jailkeeper + vig just put town at 40ish percentage which is just the sweet spot for a challenging game.

[MarioManiac4]

The town winrate for 6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper and 2 Mafia Goons is 48.4%

[Gamma Emerald]

I think it's okay, might be a bit townsided
When I first saw this I was like "this could work in Matrix6" but it got shot down hard ;-;

[MarioManiac4]

people don't like vigs in newbies
could help with retention rates though, barring real-life issues everybody likes pewpewpewing people in the face

[Realeo]

The town winrate for 6 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper and 2 Mafia Goons is 48.4%

Yes, exactly my point. Just at the delicious 40 percent range.

Me don't think vig actually increases that much, on that point.

[Gamma Emerald]

Eh
tbh MM4 I don't think town would appreciate getting vigged in a newbie

[MarioManiac4]

It's basically around 50% and I think it's safe to say an extra mislynch increases that. (It is basically equal to having 8 Vanilla Townies, 1 Town Jailkeeper, and 2 mafia goons.)

pedit: I know, it was a vig joke

[Realeo]

You are not increasing the mislynch, btw. You are just reallocating the mislynch from the town mislynch to vig misshoot.

[MarioManiac4]

That is not true.
In a 7:2 vanilla game, the perfect scum win would look like this;
Lynch D1; 6:2
Kill N1; 5:2
Lynch D2; 4:2
Kill N2; 3:2
Lynch D3; 2:2- a perfect Mafia victory, through 3 lynches.
Let's assume a Vig kill is a second lynch (as Wisdom used it here.)
In 6 VT/1 Vig/2 Mafia Goon game;
Lynch D1; 6:2
Lynch N1; 5:2
Kill N1; 4:2
Lynch D2; 3:2

At this point (3 lynches) Mafia would have won in a vanilla game. But here, the town can still win;
Lynch N2; 3:1
Kill N2; 2:1
Lynch D3; 2:0

Therefore, Town do gain an extra mislynch from the vig.

[Realeo]

Ah, I can see your point.

But I still would argue that it doesn't increase that high due to unlikehoodness (ie. in this small game, how likely is it for vig to survive that long? Mafia is more likely to spot the vig with such small player list. In addition to that, if scum think that vig will misshot, they can spare the vig.)

However, I think you have a new issue that scum roleblocker can't solve.

If both power role survives to 3 way lylo, it's pretty much dead for the scum as it would be veeery tough for scum to counterclaim either vig or jailkeeper.

[Realeo]

BTW, I think we should discuss this on your setup thread discussion in open setup forum instead here. I will try to see if I can run a computer simulation to check it.