Micro 739 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[boring]

Feel free to jump in too, Umlaut, if you can think of others.

[Umlaut]

Hunh, I did read the rules but I somehow failed to catch that point (that 2:1:1 is a scum draw, town loss).

If so, let's assume [Vedith was aiming for a tie]. What could we extrapolate from that point? I'll give all the scenarios I can come up with:
- if I was other scum, and Vedith aimed at me: I'd be dead, or we'd both be dead (depending on where I aimed)
- if the other scum took the hint to kill me, but Vedith was bluffing: two players would have died last night.
- if the other scum took the hint, and chose to shoot Vedith instead: Vedith would be the only NK.
- if they both shot at whoever for other reasons: impossible to tell

are there any others you can think of?

Firstly, wolves don't shoot people, they maul them

Secondly, I don't think it's Vedith's style to negotiate for a tie when there's a win available. Vedith shot whoever he thought was a wolf, and he was mistaken. But I suppose it's possible he wanted the wolf to fall for it and shoot boring (who he thought to be scum) while he shot whoever he thought was scum. In that case he probably shot me and we can conclude I'm town. It's worth noting that, as far as I can recall, Vedith has called me scum in every game we've ever played together where he was town.

If I

do

suppose that Vedith really did want a tie, and thought boring was town, he would have just shot boring and hoped the other scum did the same (assuming he understood the rules). In that case we can conclude boring is town.

Though, now that I think of it, the following thought process has merit: "I think boring is town. I'm going to shoot him tonight. In case I'm wrong, though, I'll hint for the wolf to maul her as well. If they go along with that I'll at least draw."

[boring]

Hunh, I did read the rules but I somehow failed to catch that point (that 2:1:1 is a scum draw, town loss).

If so, let's assume [Vedith was aiming for a tie]. What could we extrapolate from that point? I'll give all the scenarios I can come up with:
- if I was other scum, and Vedith aimed at me: I'd be dead, or we'd both be dead (depending on where I aimed)
- if the other scum took the hint to kill me, but Vedith was bluffing: two players would have died last night.
- if the other scum took the hint, and chose to shoot Vedith instead: Vedith would be the only NK.
- if they both shot at whoever for other reasons: impossible to tell

are there any others you can think of?

Firstly, wolves don't shoot people, they maul them

Secondly, I don't think it's Vedith's style to negotiate for a tie when there's a win available. Vedith shot whoever he thought was a wolf, and he was mistaken. But I suppose it's possible he wanted the wolf to fall for it and shoot boring (who he thought to be scum) while he shot whoever he thought was scum. In that case he probably shot me and we can conclude I'm town. It's worth noting that, as far as I can recall, Vedith has called me scum in every game we've ever played together where he was town.

If I

do

suppose that Vedith really did want a tie, and thought boring was town, he would have just shot boring and hoped the other scum did the same (assuming he understood the rules). In that case we can conclude boring is town.

Though, now that I think of it, the following thought process has merit: "I think boring is town. I'm going to shoot him tonight. In case I'm wrong, though, I'll hint for the wolf to maul her as well. If they go along with that I'll at least draw."

I agree. I don't think Vedith would negotiate a tie with an unknown player. Hell, he barely negotiated strategy with a shared wincon and daytalk. Why pray to the void when you can act independently?

However, lizardqueen believes that Vedith aimed for a draw. I think that will prove far more significant than what Vedith actually did. I want to wait for lizardqueen's contribution on this.

[Umlaut]

I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

[lizardqueen]

I'll post this evening (in a few hours for you guys) after dinner. There's a lot I want to say so prepare for walls >.>

[boring]

I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

This is exactly what I needed. I'll elaborate after lq's walls.

[BTD6_maker]

Day 2 VC 4

Not Voting: Umlaut, lizardqueen, boring

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-03 16:00:00)

With 3 players, it's 2 to lynch!

[Umlaut]

I can't make promises about my weekend availability, so I'm probably going to vote soon.

[lizardqueen]

On my Vedith-tie theory

VOTE: Assemble

Scum flip we still lynch Boring.
Town flip - other scum kill Boring and hope Boring hits scum.

Vedith makes this post, hammering Assemble. The important content here isn't the hammer, but what he posts after about boring. What is scum!Vedith's motivation in posting this?

If he geniunely thinks boring is scum, there seems to be little benefit in posting this. If he kills boring overnight, all this will do is make people eye him as her killer the next day, while also drawing scum!boring's attention. I believe that like boring, he thought that the best move for scum was to get town lynched on day one, and was townreading boring, hence why he pushed her.*

So, if Vedith thinks boring is town, what is the incentive behind posting this? For me, the most likely possibility seems to be that Vedith is aiming for the other scum to pick up on his hint, and to shoot boring overnight. Why would Vedith be willing to take the risk of outing himself to the other scum?

a) He doesn't think he can win in a lylo situation, so is aiming for a tie tonight
b) He thinks the other scum is aiming for him overnight, so is giving them another target
c) Some combination of the above

The possible lylo's that Vedith could be in:
1) Vedith/boring/Umlaut
2) Vedith/boring/lizardqueen
3) Vedith/Umlaut/lizardqueen

In these scenarios, everyone except Vedith would be town, so we'll assume that the reads they gave yesterday are their geniune reads.

In scenario 1, it makes sense for Umlaut to vote for Vedith, since he's been townreading boring but unsure about Vedith. If we assume his vote is locked, then to win Vedith needs to find a way to change his scumread on boring into a vote for Umlaut, and to persuade boring (who's voiced suspicion of both of them) to vote Vedith. It seems unlikely that he can accomplish the former while keeping boring's suspicion off him enough to achieve the latter. This seems unlikely; in this situation, it makes more sense for Vedith to aim for a tie than to a)successfully shoot the other scum overnight while avoiding their kill, and b)win a hard lylo.

Scenario 2 plays out the same way, except it's me with the vote on Vedith.

Scenario 3 offers Vedith the most opportunity. Umlaut can be assumed to be locked on me, so Vedith only needs to go back on his townread on me, giving him a reasonable chance of winning (assuming he shoots the right scum and doesn't get killed himself). The conditions in the bracket seem unlikely to be fulfilled; assuming that Vedith had a townread on boring, he wouldn't have seen this scenario as viable. If he did think boring was scum and planned on aiming for her, then why make those statements with his vote on assemble? All they do is make him more suspicious when boring is dead the next day, as well as tip her off that if he's scum then he's planning on aiming for her.

So in the two possible scenarios, 1 and 2, Vedith is unlikely to win in lylo. Which scenario Vedith is invisioning if he just aims for his scumread is unclear, but whether he's scumreading me or Umlaut he's still unlikely to win, assuming that he even makes it through the night and his scumread doesn't shoot him. That being the case, he needs to look for another way to secure the win.

In this case, offering a tie becomes an acceptable idea. My suggestion therefore is that Vedith shot boring last night, and that his post saying that the other scum should should boring is him breadcrumbing his offer.

The other alternative is that Vedith was offering the other scum a tie, while secretly planning to aim at them while they aim at boring. The reason for doing this would be if he's afraid that the other scum is aiming for him; otherwise, he's better off not exposing himself and just shooting his scumread. In this case, I think Vedith's target is more likely to be me; I have more incentive to go for a tie, as I'm in a worse situation than Umlaut in a lylo situation due to the suspicion on my yesterday, while I'm also more likely to be aiming for Vedith based on my stated suspicion of him. If Vedith thought Umlaut was scum, I think he could assume that Umlaut would be aiming for me at night, due to his stated suspicion of me when he was apparently targetting his scum read. In that case, Vedith is better off just aiming for Umlaut without saying anything to tip him off that he's the other scum.

However, in the situation where Vedith's tie offer is a feint, he still faces the same unfavourable lylos covered earlier. So I think it's more likely that his tie offer was genuine and he did target boring.

In conclusion, I think that Vedith's words most likely indicate that he was aiming for a tie by targetting boring; therefore boring is town. He probably had been assuming that I was the other scum and would have an incentive to take him up on his deal (which indeed I would have done if I was scum). However, Umlaut is the actual scum, and Vedith's words tipped him off to who the other scum was and moved his target from me to Vedith.

There is a way that boring could still be scum - if Vedith's offer of a tie was a feint, and he actually targeted me or Umlaut (probably me). In that case, while he was aiming for one of us, boring could have shot him. However, combined with my scumread on Umlaut for his behaviour today, I think this possiblity is much less likely than the one where he aimed for boring.

There's more I want to say on Umlaut's behaviour today, but this has taken ages so I'll take a break for now and write that up in a bit.

*As I was writing this, it occured to me that Vedith could have been genuinely scumreading boring, but voted for Assemble as a result of the conclusion that scum should be voting town. I still don't buy scum!Vedith openly outing his planned kill if he thinks boring is the other scum though.

[lizardqueen]

@ Umlaut - I'd obviously prefer you didn't vote me now in case there's some last minute change that exposes boring as the scum, which would be missed if she could hammer immediately. If you think though that you're guaranteed to vote for me no matter if I change my mind about boring or she does something suspicious then you should probably vote now. That way if boring is the scum we save a day+ of pointless discussion (since if you'll never change your mind she's guaranteed the hammer anyway), while if she's town she becomes confirmed and I can stop worrying about if she is the scum after all.

[Umlaut]

I do still want to wait for boring's elaboration.

[Umlaut]

Under 24 hours left.

VOTE: lizardqueen

I hope this is right.

[Umlaut]

UNVOTE:

[Umlaut]

I'm getting a bad feeling about this.

[lizardqueen]

Couple of things looking back through Umlaut's iso:
- I found his move to Assemble a little awkward yesterday - when I started to consider him as scum I thought maybe this was him moving from a scum read (me) to a town one after boring elaborated on why that was best for scum. Looking back on it he talks about intent to vote Assemble before that though so I don't think that's the case. Going to think about what this means.
- Today Umlaut consistently refers to the remaining scum as the wolf. I didn't really remember that yhe scum scum in the game are mafia and werewolf. NAI here probably since it just means he's paying more attention than me, but I'm mentioning it since I reckon the person most likely to remember that the remaining scum is a werewolf is the werewolf themselves.
- I still think it's Umlaut but his iso is less scummy than I thought? Idk. Probably going to skim one of boring's town games to see if the tone problems I had with her are consistent there.

P-edit - what kind of bad feeling Umlaut? Why vote and then unvote?

[Umlaut]

A feeling like I was about to lose that I got right after voting. Which is why I unvoted.

[lizardqueen]

@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better)

I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

Boring, in these posts you seem aware that if both scum hit town (whether it's the same townie or not) they'll tie. Later, you see to think that both scum hitting the same town leads to a 1v2v1. Can you explain this?

[lizardqueen]

Looking through boring's iso is a struggle because she's very open about everything, but at the same time quite vague in her reads? That's the tone thing I want to examine. Most of her content today seems to be about mechanical stuff such as who Vedith voted rather than whose play she thinks is scummy. Which is the exact problem I had with Umlaut so now I'm not sure what to think :/

[lizardqueen]

Lizardqueen is posting stuff.
As for Vedith, provocative behavior toward an active player, when he could be acting friendly, tells me he's probably town.

If I'm left only lynching between Umlaut and Assemblerotws, I guess I'd rather lynch Assemblerotws, as things currently stand. His reaction to LQ's vote looked like he was trying to instigate Vedith to OMGUS. Also, the strategic-not-strategic lurking in such a short game is scummy. I'm willing to put him at L-1 when we get a little closer to deadline, if nothing changes.

Can you elaborate on your Vedith read here boring? Why did his behaviour towards you (a naked vote) seem town to you?

[lizardqueen]

Umlaut, you mentioned having played multiple games with Vedith in your iso? How many games with him have you played and how good were you at reading his alignment in those?

[boring]

@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better)

I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

Boring, in these posts you seem aware that if both scum hit town (whether it's the same townie or not) they'll tie. Later, you see to think that both scum hitting the same town leads to a 1v2v1. Can you explain this?

If they each hit different tow, it would have been 1 v1 v 1. That, I thought was a tie.

[boring]

I'm short on time. In my explanation for Umlaut:

I was leaning toward you being the town. I needed to see that healthy dose of questioning me. I was getting wary because you seemed to be giving me a free pass this whole game.

[boring]

Lizardqueen is posting stuff.

As for Vedith, provocative behavior toward an active player, when he could be acting friendly, tells me he's probably town.

If I'm left only lynching between Umlaut and Assemblerotws, I guess I'd rather lynch Assemblerotws, as things currently stand. His reaction to LQ's vote looked like he was trying to instigate Vedith to OMGUS. Also, the strategic-not-strategic lurking in such a short game is scummy. I'm willing to put him at L-1 when we get a little closer to deadline, if nothing changes.

Can you elaborate on your Vedith read here boring? Why did his behaviour towards you (a naked vote) seem town to you?

That was it.

[boring]

My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

[boring]

I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

I was ready to vote with this post.

I don't know what my availability will be today, so I'm leaving my vote. I'll post at more length if I can.

VOTE: lizardqueen