Micro 739 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[lizardqueen]

My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

I think it likely means you're cleared since it means you likely were Vedith's target. You could still be the scum if he was saying that as a feint, and aimed for me or Umlaut while hoping we aim at you.

[boring]

I can't be absolutely sure, but I don't think I'm going to be changing my mind either, so it hardly matters at this point. I know lizardqueen has put in the greater effort, and I'm not discounting that.

And to explain my read neutrality: I've intentionally tried to keep my reads close to my chest because it's easier to be manipulated in close quarters. If I was too open with them, it would just give whoever is scum a more solid handle on how to interact with me and the other town. I wanted to avoid that, and let people self-direct as much as possible.

[boring]

My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

I think it likely means you're cleared since it means you likely were Vedith's target. You could still be the scum if he was saying that as a feint, and aimed for me or Umlaut while hoping we aim at you.

That still clears me, if you think he was hoping someone else aimed at me.

[boring]

You're supposed to vote me now, by the way. If you were town, I'd be mechanically scum to you.

[lizardqueen]

@lizardqueen - I understand wanting to follow up about why things weren't followed up. However, Umlaut did engage with me regarding this speculation. I was kind of expecting you to show some kind of acknowledgement or reaction to the mod's answer. Especially since it all but squashes the idea of scum attempting a draw.

On your point about Umlaut's effort, I agree that I'd like to see more, so I can make a more informed decision. It's been my stance that it's on town to be transparent and cooperative. I understand that it comes with some risk (because it informs them), but the reward is that it forces scum to be more verbose. So regardless of his alignment, communication is key. As far as cooperation, he's been doing that. He's been sharing his reads and collaborating. All that said, effort is NAI.

How does keeping your reads close to your chest fit with the view the town should be cooperative?

P-edit: I don't see how you're mechanically scum? I don't know your alingment until Umlaut gets on and hammers or not. So I'm hoping to get you to unvote before then.

[lizardqueen]

My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

I think it likely means you're cleared since it means you likely were Vedith's target. You could still be the scum if he was saying that as a feint, and aimed for me or Umlaut while hoping we aim at you.

That still clears me, if you think he was hoping someone else aimed at me.

How does this clear you? In this scenario, Vedith is thinking me or Umlaut is the scum, and is aiming at us while hoping we aim at you, when in fact you're the scum and shoot him.

[boring]

How does keeping your reads close to your chest fit with the view the town should be cooperative?

P-edit: I don't see how you're mechanically scum? I don't know your alingment until Umlaut gets on and hammers or not. So I'm hoping to get you to unvote before then.

Easy. I cooperate, interact, openly share thoughts. I just don't want scum to know where I'm leaning in these situations because it lets them cloud things up.

And we have less than 20 hours left. There's either going to be a hammer or an autolose. I'm mechanically scum to you if you're town because I've either let Umlaut win as a dumb town, or I'm scum.

You've played this whole day pushing toward Umlaut being the scum without outright saying it. It's been the theme of all your posts. The fact that you never seemed willing to commit yourself to the decision suggests you've just been for exhibition to convince me, but keeping your options open in case you had to depend on him instead.

[lizardqueen]

? I still don't see how you'd be mechanically scum. You giving scum!Umlaut the win doesn't seem unreasonable at all; he's played better than me.

On your other point, I've said openly that I think Umlaut is more likely to be the scum. I haven't committed to that (by voting for him) becuase there hasn't been a need to. If I'm not 100% confident, I want as much time to discuss as possible, so why vote early?

[lizardqueen]

You determined Umlaut was town because he expressed suspicion towards you, but the same thing from me makes me scum?

If I was the scum I wouldn't have left my options open to get Umlaut to vote you, given that he was so suspicious of me yesterday. Instead, I would have come right out the gate pushing him as scum, rather than being very unsure at the start of today and still not sure even now. That would have been the best play for scum!me.

[Umlaut]

*conftown!*

[lizardqueen]

Huhhh. Wasn't really expecting that but glad you had that last minute unvote. Guess that explains why I'd started to feel better than you earlier.

[lizardqueen]

oh right VOTE: boring

[lizardqueen]

In terms of a case on her... I don't really have much right now >.> but I hope you'll hold off on your vote long enough for me to try to present something. She's played well.

The bit above where she says she was holding her cards to her chest is awkward with that quote about how town should be transparent. She says she doesn't want scum to know what she's thinking, but in the quote she says the risk of this playstyle is that it let's scum know what you're thinking. So I think she just mixed her stories up and forgot what she said before.

[lizardqueen]

Boring being the scum explains why she was so adamant that Vedith was scumreading her so he targeted her. Imo the idea that Vedith was scumreading her makes no sense. If he wanted to get her lynched, he should have given more reasons for her to be scum than like, nothing. If he wanted to nightkill her, there's no benefit in letting people know he aimed at her - it only makes him a target in a Vedith/lizardqueen/Umlaut lylo.

Either he was offering the tie, but was planning on backstabbing the other scum (and missed). Or I misread that post and he was trying to get the scum to townread him and kill boring? But if that was the plan I think he'd expand more on why she's scum?

[lizardqueen]

@Umlaut - I found that you made a surprising omission in your "who would have shot Vedith" analysis. Vedith was outspoken against me the second half of yesterday. So in theory, I would have had the most obvious motive to shoot him, right?

If you're a wolf then the only thing you care about in your nightkill choice is who is mafia. Whether Vedith suspects you is irrelevant unless you think it makes him scum.

Mighttttt be a slip here? boring thinks that Vedith's suspicion of her would be an obvious reason for her to kill him - was it?

[lizardqueen]

If both scum shoot the same town player, the game ends in a tie for them.

I will make a final attempt here because this seems to be a keystone assumption for your narrative.

If both scum shot at the same townie, the gamestate would end up 1 v 2 v 1, which is

not a tie

. Day 2 would have been the battle of scum vs. scum to convince the two townies to vote the other, so the remaining scum could win. No one would choose to go head-to-head with their opponent in the main thread when they could a)NK scum, or b)each shoot a townie, and draw.

@ boring - Saying that Vedith wouldn't have wanted to go to lylo with you after openly suspecting you - wouldn't it be more risky for him to kill you then, since people might assume that he was the one who did it? If you're chosing someone to take to lylo, wouldn't the person you've been suspecting a good choice since you have a reason to push them?

Remember my primary point: I think Vedith assumed I was scum. He could get town cred for scum!boring flip, and pit you two against each other.

Thinking about it again, I made a

huge

mistake in my conspiracy theory (I remembered it later in the same fucking post! Actually, you didn't notice it either, so makes me feel a little better)

I forgot that if both scum had hit their mark they'd have just tied and there'd be no today.

So there'd be no need to play off my death. If he had successfully killed me, the game would have been over (because that would have meant the other scum had aimed at town too).

What do you mean by being thick-skinned about being suspected as scum? Are you referring to my line about how if Vedith shot you, Umlaut is scum and vice versa? That's obviously only from my point of view; I said it so it explains where my analysis is coming from.

I had meant thick-skinned like you weren't simply suspecting players simply because they were suspecting you. You have been a bit off, as I've already mentioned, but you haven't been particularly prone to OMGUS.

If you want links to my games just view my topics from my profile; I've only played three games here so there's not exactly much to pick from. Lie Detecters is my most recent game and my first time ever playing scum, I'm a town mason in BIOLOGY.

I'll look at those. I just need to understand if the vibe I'm getting is your personality (NAI) or if something actually is "off".

Currently inclined towards boring as the scum but that's definitely not set in stone.

Suspect me all you want, but please don't vote until we've all three had some time to work things out a little more. I'm sure you understand that a single TvT vote will lose the game.

Hmm - why do you think Vedith was so clear in his suspicion of you if your theory was incorrect? And what do you think of the possibility that he was directing the other scum to aim at you for a joint win?

I meant, I realized that there's no way the game would have made it to Day 2 if Vedith had successfully NK'd me. That's because it would mean the other scum didn't hit Vedith, and they would have tied (we'd have lost). So from Vedith's perspective, again, assuming he thought I was the other scum, I'd have flipped scum, and he'd go to Day 2 looking like town. At worst, from my [revised] theory of his perspective, he'd hit me, I'd flip town, and he'd tie with the other scum.

I don't know the nuances of site rules to confirm, but I think players are required to try to achieve their win-condition, as opposed to a draw? We'd have to ask the mod after the game to confirm that, I guess. But still, why aim to tie when you can win? So I think it goes back to: he really did scumread me, and was just setting things up to snag the win today.

However, I think I've spent enough time on this theory. If there's something still confusing about my thought process, and it will help you sort me, feel free to bring it up. Otherwise, i think I've picked this bone dry.

Boring, in these posts you seem aware that if both scum hit town (whether it's the same townie or not) they'll tie. Later, you see to think that both scum hitting the same town leads to a 1v2v1. Can you explain this?

If they each hit different tow, it would have been 1 v1 v 1. That, I thought was a tie.

Boring, where did you get these numbers? Assuming there's no rule for scum to tie overnight, both scum hitting the same town would leave 1v1v1 alive, and both scum hitting town would leave just two scum. Your numbers seem to have five people around at night?

[lizardqueen]

boring not responding to either of my long posts (110 and 133) makes sense if she was never seriously paying attention to my argument for Umlaut being scum, but instead knew that Umlaut scumread me and was just waiting to vote for me in a way that seems natural.

[lizardqueen]

I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

This is exactly what I needed. I'll elaborate after lq's walls.

I'm short on time. In my explanation for Umlaut:

I was leaning toward you being the town. I needed to see that healthy dose of questioning me. I was getting wary because you seemed to be giving me a free pass this whole game.

My biggest issue with LQ has been that her unwaivering hypothesis about Vedith breadcrumbing to shoot me assumes that I'm cleared. So why has she been keeping her options so wide open as to who she'll vote?

I actually think there's a good chance Vedith shot at me, if he understood that lynching town was to his advantage yesterday. He didn't make me his go-to lynch but he sort of maintained suspicion on me, and in fact does often scumread me.

Which makes this harder from my perspective -- if I could convince myself fully that he'd shot boring, I could just put my vote on lizardqueen and never move it.

I was ready to vote with this post.

I don't know what my availability will be today, so I'm leaving my vote. I'll post at more length if I can.

VOTE: lizardqueen

This is weird. Why say she elaborate later, then come back with a short explanation and a vote? If boring's mind was made up by Umlaut's post 128, why not vote then rather than wait for apparently no reason?

[lizardqueen]

I'm going to games night. I'll get back to this later.
Make sure you post lots of content for me \o/

Only if you promise to do the same for me tomorrow.

I don't have an opinion on your posts. Well, I do, but I don't like my opinion. They strike me as breezy and therefore genuine. I just don't think I can trust that as an assessment of your alignment.

Umlaut is still sticky.

I think LizardQueen is bad town, not scum though.

Maybe? I agree with Umlaut that the dumb reaction to the "dumbtell" seemed unnatural. Everything she's posted has seemed unnatural. I suppose that's your whole point, though.

Honestly, I don't know how you can manage to rule anyone out right now.

@ Boring - have your Umlaut/Vedith reads developed at all since #27?

I'm not sure. My V/LA ends tomorrow so I'll have more time to think about this game. But I really don't like any of you. (In an in-game way. I'm sure you're all lovely people).

I'm worried that Umlaut could be buddying, and his intro was awfully WIFOMY. Vedith's view seems so foreign that it can't help but be suspicious. Assemblerotws has been utterly devoid of content. At least you're putting in effort, but your content seems so reactionary, which pings me a lot.

Lizardqueen is posting stuff.
As for Vedith, provocative behavior toward an active player, when he could be acting friendly, tells me he's probably town.

If I'm left only lynching between Umlaut and Assemblerotws, I guess I'd rather lynch Assemblerotws, as things currently stand. His reaction to LQ's vote looked like he was trying to instigate Vedith to OMGUS. Also, the strategic-not-strategic lurking in such a short game is scummy. I'm willing to put him at L-1 when we get a little closer to deadline, if nothing changes.

Boring's reads yesterday were kind of... wishy-washy. Like she's leaving enough space that she can chamge them if necessary, but at the same time isn't pushing hard on anyone else to draw much attention. This pinged me yesterday, but I thought they could be coming from genuinely unsure town. At the time, I thought that scum would want to be pushing the other scum. If boring wants to see a townie lynched- and most importantly not get lynched herself - these kind of reads make sense though. They look like classic reads from scum.

Idk, boring's played really well. Like I honestly think I've been scummier than her. So it's hard to find anything that shows that she's the scum.

[boring]

I fucking knew it!

Okay, I'm sorry about this being last minute. I'm a little frustrated, because I felt like I had been preparing a lot of little things (which brought me to the conclusion that it had to be her).

In short, I have a few points to make and I don't have time to edit, so I'm sorry too if any sentences are incomprehensible.

1) I skimmed her walls and saw, LQ is still on about my my "town should be transparent" post and my "I clearly wasn't wearing my reads on my sleeve" post. It seems like flailing to me, but I have the benefit of surety. Manipulation is a two-way street. I don't like gimmicks or fake hammers, but that doesn't mean you can't feel around or withhold information in the hopes that scum will show their hand. I made general remarks that would suggest I will townlean those who behave a certain way, and I watch to see what happens. Similarly, I refrain from showing how I'm leaning because a) it can make the last town act nervous and unnatural, and b) it gives scum as little information as possible.

2) I was townleaning Umlaut because of his tone, his thought process, and his general approach. Despite his relatively lower verbiage, I got more genuineness from his posts and more transparency. He didn't muddle them up with a bunch of crap, and he didn't seem to be driving at any undercurrents. LQ, on the other hand, seemed to be doing the opposite. She set up a narrative (as we all did) about what happened, but one with an obvious conclusion of Umlaut being the scum. The more Umlaut suggested he'd be going for her, the more obvious her theories seemed to point. I encouraged the topic after I said I was done with NK theory because I wanted to see how close to the line she'd go. She kept up her emergency escape route more than seems town.

3) My reads yesterday weren't wishy-washy, they were ill-defined. There was like no content. Assemberotws seemed to be around but wasn't contributing any content. That pushed him from lurker to deliberately withdrawing. I don't regret voting him, as he was the most scummy player at the time. I wanted to wait on LQ because she was at least doing something. It's easier to catch an active scum than an inactive one. So letting LQ to today, assuming they were both scum, made the most sense.

4) I waited to vote until you wrote your promised walls. I figured they'd have been influenced by my vote if I had voted, and more material to work with is always better. Then I got busy, and didn't have time to actuallyread them. I'll explain my time crunch after the game.

5) LQ has said a very large amount of nothing sprinkled with AtE-ish comments. She's been reasonably clever in her efforts, and efforts, they've been. If effort was AI, I'd have voted differently. But it's not. We're lacking game-solving substance from her, and these last few arguments of hers look very obviously to me as grasping at straws. However, I have the benefit of knowing.

6) It's really been fun playing with both of you, regardless of whether we win or not. I think you played a good game, lizardqueen.

I might be able to pop in in the morning, and I might not. Assume you've got all the information I have to give before the timer runs out. I'm really, really sorry again for the poor timing.

[Umlaut]

@Umlaut - I found that you made a surprising omission in your "who would have shot Vedith" analysis. Vedith was outspoken against me the second half of yesterday. So in theory, I would have had the most obvious motive to shoot him, right?

Something is off about this question. What were you trying to achieve with it? That is, how could my answer have been alignment-indicative?

[Umlaut]

The fact that LQ has no plan B for my being conftown is actually a point in her favor.

[Umlaut]

Sigh. I'm losing confidence but I don't see any way to get it back, so here goes nothing.

VOTE: lizardqueen

If this is wrong, kudos to boring for pocketing me.

[BTD6_maker]

Day 2 VC 5

lizardqueen: boring, Umlaut -

LYNCH

boring: lizardqueen

Not Voting:

Deadline is in (expired on 2017-09-03 16:00:00)

With 3 players, it's 2 to lynch!

[BTD6_maker]

Lizardqueen was lynched!

Spoiler: Lizardqueen's Role PM

Vanilla Townie

Welcome, lizardqueen. You are a

Vanilla Townie

.

You have no special abilities.

You win when all threats to the town are eliminated.

The game thread is here.

Please confirm your role by replying with your role name.

Boring,

Werewolf Goon

, has won!

Umlaut,

Vanilla Townie

, has been endgamed!