Micro 744 - Nano-Multiball (Game Over)

[Elliberetta]

uhhhh what
that's because it just makes sense
like Luca would agree that it makes sense
and so should you.

[Elliberetta]

Yes I have.

I see you're back to your assertive self again. Nice to have you back.

So why did you think it was weird that I'm on the fence and paranoid today?
I don't think its hard to see how today and yesterday are very different.

Which me is around really depends on the time of the day.
(but actually, I'm assertive when i'm sure about stuff. else not really).

[Luca Blight]

I already explained that. If you think I'm scummy because I am not putting in too much work, well that's just my playstyle. I don't like to make giant cases on people with big walls.

Do you have any meta to show this is how you play as Town?

Yes I have.

I see you're back to your assertive self again. Nice to have you back.

So why did you think it was weird that I'm on the fence and paranoid today?
I don't think its hard to see how today and yesterday are very different.

Which me is around really depends on the time of the day.
(but actually, I'm assertive when i'm sure about stuff. else not really).

It's mainly a tonal thing.

I also kind of expected you to be grilling Tywin today as I had the impression on D1 you townread me more, but that hasn't really happened.

[TywinL]

I only have one completed game as town. viewtopic.php?f=2&t=73313

If you do a skim through my ISO here, you will see that most of my posts are short.

[TywinL]

I also kind of expected you to be grilling Tywin today as I had the impression on D1 you townread me more, but that hasn't really happened.

But Elli said it was most likely to me you considering night kill analysis.

[TywinL]

uhhhh what
that's because it just makes sense
like Luca would agree that it makes sense
and so should you.

I'm just being paranoid. Calm down. The completed game that I linked few posts ago is exactly why I am paranoid. Don't tell me what I should think please.

[Luca Blight]

I also kind of expected you to be grilling Tywin today as I had the impression on D1 you townread me more, but that hasn't really happened.

But Elli said it was most likely to me you considering night kill analysis.

That's not really the case; Vax could have equally targeted you or Eli based on his ISO.

[Luca Blight]

I really want to get this wrapped up within the next 20 hours or so as I'll be V/LA after that.

Tywin, which way are you leaning?

Eli, same question?

[Luca Blight]

To be honest I'm leaning Tywin being town and Eli scum. It's almost entirely a gut feeling, I just feel like Eli would be doing a lot more to sort us if she was town whereas Tywin naturally seems a laid back player judging from the meta he provided.

As I said I'm gonna be really short of time from now on so I want to get this sorted asap.

[Luca Blight]

Thinking about it, I also disagree with what Eli said about town being more likely to look for two scum on D1 - it was more important for scum to find the only other scum on D1 as they are their biggest threat in this game. As Town, finding either scum on D1 is satisfactory for us, and both me and Tywin were willing to vote both Vax and HS while Eli abstained from voting.

Scum would be more scared to lynch town on D1 in case they were killed on N1, and Eli wanted to be very sure of who was scum out of HS and Vax. She voted for neither despite heavily suspecting both.

[Luca Blight]

Tywin said he had me and Eli as townreads so by POE HS and Vax must be scum - this is a very Townie mindset.

I really find it suspicious how Eli scumread both HS and Vax but didn't commit to voting either - as though she knew one must be Town.

I'm gonna be V/LA very soon so I'm gonna commit myself here and hope I'm right.


VOTE: ELI

[Elliberetta]

at work

Luca - if you're somehow town going haywire unvote. I doubt it at this point but...

Tywin - if you're town we'll talk tonight.

[TywinL]

At work.

I am town.

[Luca Blight]

Well looks like I chose right.

This is the last time I can post for a while as I'm travelling already, but think about what I said about Eli's position on Vax and Hs, Tywin - we both thought they were the two scum and we both voted them. Eli didn't vote either as she knew one was town and she was scared of the other scum surviving and killing her at night.

[Elliberetta]

oh cool, ty jesus

Vote: Luca

I'm really tired but I'll still try to get some bullet points up tonight at least.

[TywinL]

I'm busy tonight but I'll have more time tomorrow. I am gonna evaluate both of you tomorrow and think about my decision here. I'll probably hammer tomorrow night.

[Elliberetta]

I have spasms of time throughout the day so I'll posting in short bursts.

Here's some initial reasons why Luca is scum:

Let's first look at what happened today.

I suspect he thought that I would come in guns blazing at you and today would be fairly easy, but instead I came in probing him. That clearly made him uncomfortable.

a) His initial arguments for why I was suspicious are pretty bad for an experienced player who's been in Lylo before.
Less assertive, nervous of getting 1v1's, trying to balance between hostility and cooperation. I feel like he pointed these out because they're like "normal scummy things" you can point out in many other game days but that simply don't apply in lylo! He wouldn't be making these arguments as town because he would realize the way I was feeling was close to how he was feeling. Instead he chose to paint normal town emotions as suspicious.

b) The 2 scum vs. 1 scum thing. First of all, note how he first defends against it in 183. Ignores my follow up about it in 189. And then finally later decides to use it as a negative point against me. I'll analyze this 2v1 thing more in depth in a follow up post. But even his thought process about it today is pretty revealing. To me it feels like he first went "Oh, he missed if we lynched scum we immideately go into D2 so that should defuse his argument", into "Oh it didn't defuse his argument I guess I'll just hopefully ignore it for now", into "he's probably not getting to let me ignore it now that it's becoming a 1v1 and Tywin even brought it up saying it was a good point so I'm going to have to make it so his point of view is the one that looks bad".

c) There's also small stuff like 176 and 206. If he were acting in good faith in 176 and trying to figure out which one of us was town he would realize that it being 50/50 between me and you where the shot went would actually be a big deal for me and you (as I went over in my first post of the day). He brings it up again in 206 where he just tries to make you think it's not a thing to consider when it obviously is. And as for your 205, sorry for pedantic tone but this NK analysis isn't really an "up for opinion" type of thing, it's fairly concrete like 1+1=2. It doesn't point to Luca being scum, it points to him probabalistically strictly being more likely to be scum. (I think he knows this by the way and chooses to just not acknowledge it!).

I'll be back with more later about D1 stuff and maybe some more today stuff.

[Elliberetta]

On mobile.

Going to quickly refute Luca's thing about not voting.

He himself voted vaxkill (to lynch!!) super fast. And then unvoted after a little while and only revoted the day before deadline in the second to last post of the day. I'ev already established how the vote to lynch Vax fast was just very bad because there are 2 scum from town point of view. And then beyond that the only different from us is then his final HS vote.

Criticizing me for not voting and wanting to stretch the day closer to dl (as I recall I was still asking vax questions and waiting for hs to maybe address luca's and my posts) is super silly. Furthermore votes on HS meant very little because of the thing where he was lynched automatically when deadline came. I knew I would be around on early Monday for the deadline if I wanted to swing it back to vax or make sure it went on HS so there was very little need to vote. Except when I got back it was already night because Luca gave Vax the opportunity to just end the day.

So yeah, in context the way he actually voted is actually worse than my no votes. This is another thing he's bringing out as evidence that might seem scummy in general situations but falls apart in context of this particular game.

[TywinL]

Tbh, I am still leaning Luca.

[Elliberetta]

Busy until late late tonight if you want more stuff

[TywinL]

I was gonna hammer sometime tonight but deadline isn't until the early morning hours of Tuesday so I see no reason to rush this. I also see that Luca's V/LA ends today so maybe I can get some content from him, replying to your posts.

[Luca Blight]

My v/la doesn't end today, I'm on holiday all week and only have a small window of time to post.

Tywin, I was the one who took the initiative today while Eli was on the fence between us, and yet after I vote you she suddenly has all these reasons I must be scum - why didn't she state them earlier? Because she didn't want to 1v1 vs you or me - she wanted to be open to lyniching either of us. If I was scum, I would have probably have seen you as the easier target as you're the more inexperienced player - I wouldn't have deliberately put myself 1v1 against the more experienced player. On that note - don't be fooled by her join date: she alt slipped earlier and has been playing on here since 2009. I put myself 1v1 against her as I genuinely believed she was scum, and I was right. Look at how Eli played today - she didn't want to commit herself; she was hoping one of us would vote the other so she could easily hammer. Why would I 1v1 her as scum when she was clearly still suspecting you? It makes no sense.

Tywin, we both thought vax was scum and we both voted for him. Eli heavily scumread him but had more reason to be cautious as she knew there was only one other scum. Remember it was more important for scum to lynch scum on d1 because if she was targeted at night it would be game over for her regardless of her night actions.

I recognised you as town due to your mindset that me and Eli are town so by Poe Hs and vax must be scum. I also had the same mindset as you (I town read Eli on d1) but Eli had no such mindset, hence why she was so reluctant to vote either Hs or vax when she knew one must be town.

Look, vax looked scummy as hell on d1, why would I, as scum, lynch HS given that fact? Obviously it's because I genuinely believed Hs and vax were both scum.

Anyway, its up to you now Tywin. I hope you make the right choice.

[TywinL]

Ughhhh, that was a really good point. Elli, respond to that please.

[Luca Blight]

And regarding my voting activity - I voted vax as he basically scum slipped and I was almost 100% convinced in that moment he was scum. I then unvoted just to consider reasonably and not let the adrenaline take over, and then voted HS in the end having given him many chances to defend himself, which he failed to do.

Very busy for the rest of the day and tomorrow so might not be able to post again. Tywin, I am town. Please hammer Eli.

[TywinL]

Will most likely be hammering tonight. Elli, please respond to Luca's post; you get the last word.