Micro 770: Killer In The Penthouse Game Over

[sheepsaysmeep]

pagetop

[Hopkirk]

Should pay attention to whose on the wagon now.
Not assassin.

[sheepsaysmeep]

yo

[wilky]

prodge - was busy with work yesterday and the hammers been done.

[Alisaes French Maid]

Day 1, VC 2

With 9 Alive it takes 5 to lynch!

archwing (1) -

wilky

sheepsaysmeep (1) -

Hopkirk,

Hopkirk (5) -

GuiltyLion, northsidegal, sheepsaysmeep, TheGoldenParadox, RedFlavour

wilky (1) -

Archwing

Not Voting (1) -

SnarkySnowman

Mod Notes

wilky has been prodded

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-01-11 21:00:00)

[Alisaes French Maid]

Hopkirk was lynched he was

Spoiler:

You are a

Billionaire's Bodyguard

.

Each Day, you may talk and vote someone to lynch.

Each Night, you may choose another player to protect by sending me a PM with their name. If they are targeted with a kill, you will die in their place.

You know that the Billionaire is

You win when the Killer can no longer kill the Billionaire.
Note - when multiple bodyguards protect a player, and that player is targeted for the kill, only one of the protecting bodyguards will be killed, chosen at random between those who chose that player to protect.

[Alisaes French Maid]

You must submit your night actions before (expired on 2018-01-10 14:00:00)

[Alisaes French Maid]

RedFlavor died he was

Spoiler:

You are a

Billionaire's Bodyguard

.

Each Day, you may talk and vote someone to lynch.

Each Night, you may choose another player to protect by sending me a PM with their name. If they are targeted with a kill, you will die in their place.

You know that the Billionaire is

You win when the Killer can no longer kill the Billionaire.
Note - when multiple bodyguards protect a player, and that player is targeted for the kill, only one of the protecting bodyguards will be killed, chosen at random between those who chose that player to protect.

[Alisaes French Maid]

Day 2, VC 1

With 7 Alive it takes 4 to lynch!

Not Voting (7) -

SnarkySnowman, GuiltyLion, northsidegal, sheepsaysmeep, TheGoldenParadox, Archwing, wilky

Mod Notes

Deadline:

(expired on 2018-01-14 15:00:00)

[sheepsaysmeep]

first

[northsidegal]

vote sheep

[SnarkySnowman]

Can we talk about my comments on the strategy and why I think random lynching is flawed / not good / also not fun?

[wilky]

Can we talk about my comments on the strategy and why I think random lynching is flawed / not good /

also not fun?

I agree with the bolded part there is no fun in the game if we just random lynch our way through.

[GuiltyLion]

Can we talk about my comments on the strategy and why I think random lynching is flawed / not good / also not fun?

no. you gave no alternate strategy to consider and the entire point of the setup is to keep the assassin uninformed about who the billionaire is. any public scumhunting just gives the assassin information. and again, it's not random lynching.

also winning is the most fun of all

VOTE: SnarkySnowman

[Archwing]

VOTE: guiltylion

[SnarkySnowman]

Here's why it's a bad idea:

1. Not Fun (winning by random chance vs winning by skill? :\)
2. Chances do not favor town as much as you'd hope.

MATH, assuming we lynch:

Pregame - 9 players, 8 killable. 1/8 shot for the killer if he kills.

Day 1 - 9 players, 1 lynched. 1/8 of lynching. Killer kills, has a 1/7 chance of hitting the target. BUT, bodyguards will protect. If the killer kills and someone other than the target dies, there's a more likely chance the person he tried to kill is the real target. Let's say someone died that's not the target.

Day 2 - 7 players -> 1/6 chance the killer gets it, and 1/6 the killer is killed. So far, chances of randomly hitting the killer have been shit ie less than 15%.

Day 3 - 5 players, 1/4 chance to get the killer. PLUS now the killer has a 1/4 chance of hitting someone on two nights information, if we lynch the killer with a 25% chance.

Day 4 - 3 players, 50/50 of hitting the killer PLUS the killer has a 50/50 shot of getting the target.

Clever play is how we should win. Lynching randomly gives us something like a 60~ish percent chance of winning, clever play can increase that a lot.

Since we're day 2, let's calculate. P(killer is lynched | day 2) = 1/6 (since we know who the target is and not to lynch them)

[SnarkySnowman]

motherfucker didn't want to post that yet. curse accidental tab + enter

I don't care point is it's like 60~ish or less percent we win by doing this, and it's way less fun, so there.

[GuiltyLion]

the assassin only gets 2 night kills, game has to end at 5p one way or the other

clever play can increase that a lot.

disagree entirely, there is no way to convince other people that you've found the assassin without cluing the assassin to who the billionaire is. any arguing for/against any lynch will only narrow the billionaire pool for the assassin. you can intentionally use WIFOM but you couldn't ever come clean about it and that won't help town at all either.

that's the last I'll say about this, we can discuss post game. and you are not the arbiter of what is more or less fun, I personally would have more fun if people don't put my wincon at risk by talking too much

[SnarkySnowman]

Oh fuck I forgot about the shot thing. RIP.

I'm not the arbiter of what's more or less fun, but I'd still like to plead my case

[northsidegal]

unvote, vote snarky

[TheGoldenParadox]

Oh fuck I forgot about the shot thing. RIP.

I'm not the arbiter of what's more or less fun, but I'd still like to plead my case

omg thats against town wincon. Just self vote. Whenever someone has 2 votes or more, vote them. Otherwise, vote anyone =, including the king, but don't put the king at more than 1 vote.
VOTE: SnarkySnowman

[TheGoldenParadox]

@NSG

Why did you take the christmas hat off your profile pic it was so cute

[sheepsaysmeep]

lolrip he just wanted to make the game fun
VOTE: snarky

[GuiltyLion]

btw just in case anyone else doesn't understand the set up we are not voting or lynching tomorrow and just waiting for the assassin to take his/her shot. I don't believe it's called out in the rules but I assume town should automatically win a happy-ever-after scenario here by default if the assassin refuses to kill, clarification from the mod might help

[GuiltyLion]

now that I think about it it would have been better play to just no vote / no lynch every day and force the assassin to use NKs on the maximum pool of people

not sure if there's something in the rules against this