Micro 789 - Alternating 9p - Mafia wins

[CheekyTeeky]

It wouldn't have mattered if I was lynched today - it's very likely Ank would've been lynched tomorrow anyway hence my despair.

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, but at the time you despaired, Ank was your scumread. You weren't operating with knowledge that he was town (or were you?)

[CheekyTeeky]

Lol no it didn't make sense on a logical level. I guess I just knew we had lost when everyone was scumreading me.

[BlackVoid]

I'm not entirely sure Ankamius will flip town. I'd have expected some sort of analysis or trying to tell us not to lynch Lovebird next.

[CheekyTeeky]

I'm 100% on GL and Ico being town. Reading Bu's ISO I didn't think Love/Bu made sense at all. Great distancing at the beginning.

[BlackVoid]

Ico is the claimed doc.

[CheekyTeeky]

Well she could flip scum still. Either way I think if she's town it's not really realistic to expect input after burning her all day.

[CheekyTeeky]

My mind is blown if this flips town.

[BlackVoid]

How are you suddenly 100% on GL being town. Considering one of your townreads flipped town (or at least claims to be town after lynch), I'd expect everyone would drop down in your POE as opposed to being more certain of them being town.

[Ankamius]

Cheeky is blatant town.

That means everyone needs to reset and come into tomorrow fresh. You've all been victim to extreme bias all day.

[Ankamius]

Anyway, I'm at work now so I'll stop.

Good luck

[CheekyTeeky]

How are you suddenly 100% on GL being town. Considering one of your townreads flipped town (or at least claims to be town after lynch), I'd expect everyone would drop down in your POE as opposed to being more certain of them being town.

I just refuse to believe someone is that good at scum. Love has to be scum and I've already shared my thoughts about Bu. Like I said if GL is scum I don't mind losing.

[BuJaber]

Lol if cheeky is town it has to be GL /love.

Doesn't matter though the lynch order is still the same regardless of Ank's flip, love is next to guarantee one scum down at least.

Actually if ank is town... cheeky might be acting like this because she is scum with GL.

Blackvoid since you will probably be killed could you share last thoughts which you think is more likely (if ank is town.. if ank is scum we win no worries).

Love/Gl or love/cheeky?

[BuJaber]

Or cheeky/GL

[BuJaber]

Man cheeky/GL can't make sense man.. but post 1354 1361 make me a little worried.

[BlackVoid]

@GreenLiquid, so here's my final analysis post. I thought I'd be less certain about this but I actually feel pretty sure upon a re-read that the scumteam is Lovebird and CheekyTeeky, so I'll just lay out my case for you to consider:

1. Major Minor's post:

Major Minor's only post (98) was pretty scummy. He suspects Iconeum based on similar reasons to yours but weirdly also suspects Lovebird for pushing on Iconeum for "empty reasons." This is the kind of thing I've often seen from scum where they want to distance from their partners in unnatural ways. My reaction upon seeing Lovebird push Iconeum was to townread Lovebird for seeing what I saw. I think Major Minor saw that Iconeum was the most plausible push that he could make but was uncomfortable with his partner also making that push hence the weird distancing from Lovebird. CheekyTeeky replaced Major Minor and this points to a Lovebird/Cheeky team.

2. CheekyTeeky's read accuracy:

Overall CheekyTeeky has suspected several people and pushed them. First, she pushed Iconeum and Christopher (Korina -> Ank), both of whom we now know to be town and defended Lovebird. She then pushed Rask almost to a claim and he flipped town. On D2, she continued pushing Iconeum and when he claimed, she switched to me. After I claimed, she finally switched to BuJaber. Besides BuJaber (who I believe is town), every single one of Cheeky's pushes have been on people we now know to be town. I believe she also suspected ZZZX. I think an average townie will have reads that are roughly random ~25%. To believe that Cheeky is town, she had to have had astonishingly inaccurate reads pushing almost exclusively on town. I think from a statistical standpoint, it's just more likely she's scum pushing mislynches. Notably she didn't push Lovebird. Something to consider in LYLO if you have the Lovebird scumflip on the table. Her counter is that she wasn't nightkilled because she townread Lovebird. I don't find it persuasive at all. It feels like she has a guilty conscience for being alive and is prematurely finding the dual excuse that explains both her being alive and wrong about Lovebird.

3. Raskolnikov nightkill:

A lot has been said about why Rask was killed when he was widely suspected. My take is that it points to two people: Lovebird and CheekyTeeky. Rask gave off the impression that he was a PR. Please read 411, 413, and 420. Rask's 413 actually looks like he was softing a PR. I think Lovebird unvoted because she realized that this was a soft intending to quietly kill him during the night proud of her accomplishment in getting a (soft) claim out. I doubt many people even noticed this which is why it heavily points towards Lovebird. The second reason I believe for the Rask kill is that he spent most of D1 scumreading Cheeky even if was less sure at the end. He made predictions that Cheeky would endgame as scum. He was also the person who was most paranoid about Cheeky and most likely to vote her if it came down to 3P LYLO. Oftentimes good scum win because the person casting the deciding vote townreads them even while it's obvious to the entire dead thread that they're scum. That's by carefully choosing nightkills killing people who won't give them the benefit of the doubt and will vote them just because it's suspicious that a good scum player is alive in LYLO. I wouldn't say Rask's final reads are indicative so much about who is scum than the fact that if Rask and Cheeky were alive mid to late game, Rask was almost certain to have pushed there. I think the nightkill points to CheekyTeeky and Lovebird. They have the most motivation to make that kill.

4. End of D1:

Cheeky briefly votes Lovebird and then quickly switches to BuJaber. I don't really see any progression there. Could be potential distancing.

--will continue in next post. Just want to get this out there in case of thread being locked. ---

[BlackVoid]

Yeah, I guess that's for you as well, BuJaber. I think CheekyTeeky is buddying GL more than it being scumpartners.

[BuJaber]

Day 2 play also. Day 2 has a very definitive progression away from love once it became clear she would have been lynched.

Icon claiming cop pretty much guaranteed love lynch.
Love lynch was derailed. I read ank's play as whiteknighting but Void and others thought it was possibly a defence of her partner. But if she is town I don't see any world in which both she and cheeky are town. So the simplest explanation is that someone who could have hammered did not want to because love is their partner. Once other candidates for lynch came up cheeky pushed for them.

So yeah I agree with love/cheeky.
Love/GL probably would have had more activity from them. Also cheeky was the first to mention love/GL as a possibility but then didn't seriously consider it and kept pushing the 1v1 narrative.

[BlackVoid]

--- continued ---

(End of D1): In 510, she states a preference for lynching BuJaber over Lovebird. Based on you making a case (515). In contrast BuJaber had his vote on Lovebird towards the end of the day. 563 is lolworthy. Consider CheekyTeeky is a player that according to her self-votes and meltsdown as town. I think she'd be more empathetic towards BuJaber's asking to be lynched at the end of D1. Instead that post is just nitpicking at how he asked to be lynched and then claimed this was his best town game. If that didn't make sense, everything that Cheeky did towards the end of D2 made even less sense. Self-voting. Agreeing with an Ank/Lovebird/Cheeky lynch order when BuJaber was her strongest scumread and that would potentially lose her the game. I think someone prone to being frustrated under pressure would be able to understand BuJaber's motivations. Iconeum townread BuJaber in 566 and switched to Lovebird. Cheeky seemed to have realized that BuJaber's outburst was going to get him townread and then switched to... Iconeum. I initially townread end-of-day activity but it felt like Cheeky was blatantly manipulating it to end in a non-Lovebird lynch. Also, read 617. The whole scenario replayed end of D2 with her being okay with Ank/Lovebird lynches. Finally,

Lovebird is 100% lying

when she claims that Rask was townreading her and that she wouldn't night-kill him. See 656.

5. Early D2 posting:

Started off OMGUSing BuJaber even though she had backed off of him the previous day.
683 is a pretty bad post because the Rask kill makes perfect sense as I explained and scum often kill people that they suspect just so they could write reasoning like the one Cheeky posted.

Pedit: Exactly what BuJaber said above. @GL, assuming you are town, please don't lynch BuJaber in LYLO. I'll write up a towncase on him next for you to consider but it's one of those reads I feel fairly confident about.

[CheekyTeeky]

Lol I actually feel bad for you BV. Just stop game over don't sweat it.

[BlackVoid]

Man cheeky/GL can't make sense man.. but post 1354 1361 make me a little worried.

What actually worries me about a Cheeky/GL team is that GL has never been willing to lynch Cheeky at any point. Cheeky's latest post could be scum happy at the fact that I'm appealing to her partner to make a decision in LYLO when the game ends with a Lovebird lynch. And yeah, it would certainly be funny to a Cheeky-GL team if I wasted all the effort.

[CheekyTeeky]

Like actually stop justifying me scum. I'm not scum. I am 100% town.

[CheekyTeeky]

No teams that have me on them make sense because I'm town. It's actually that simple.

[BlackVoid]

I don't know what else makes sense. My townread on BuJaber is rock-solid so if it isn't you, it has be GL and Lovebird. You're better off selling me on GL over BuJaber (not that you have to bother since I won't be alive to make any decisions anyways).

[CheekyTeeky]

Anyway I say this to save you the trouble not to prevent my lynch. No amount of evidence will ever convince you guys I'm town so just stop looking for reasons to scum read me.