Micro 850: Follow the Leader (Game Over)

[RadiantCowbells]

i feel like not doing so was gamethrowing

[volxen]

for future runs
I suggest TL flips as TL, not VT
it's way too easy to get mechanical clears in mylo/lylo without that change

That would make it unbalanced and heavily scumsided though. For example if you look at the setup used in newbie games (see: viewtopic.php?p=10668408#p10668408), which are also 7-town vs 2-mafia, in column C where there are two mafia goon's there is either one really powerful town power role (Town Cop or Town Jailkeeper), or two weaker town power roles (Town Tracker and Town Doctor). This game doesn't have any town power roles, so its balance is entirely contingent on the fact that it's possible for the town leader to never become 100% confirmed to scum, depending upon how town plays of course. Having the town leader forced to play in such a way to where they have to avoid the spotlight to avoid getting nightkilled isn't really ideal, because the one person who is confirmed town (the town leader) shouldn't have to hold back their content just to avoid getting nightkilled. If the game worked that way, then the town leader has to make a choice between truly "leading" the town and thus getting nightkilled, or purposefully holding back their content so that someone else eats the nightkill each night. Considering this game completely lacks any true town power role, I think that would favor scum too much. This game is intentionally supposed to be "backwards Mafia", with an informed majority (town) vs an uninformed minority (scum). In my opinion the game shouldn't be about scum trying to identify the town leader via nightkills, it should be about scum making informed deductions about who is more likely to be the town leader vs who is less likely via how the townies interact towards one another. In this game, for example, it was absolutely possible for scum to make a

VERY

informed deduction that TGP was the town leader on night one when looking at why Yellowsnow lolhammered Vedith immediately after he listed Penguin and TGP as scumreads on day one (Penguin was scum, so the only thing that makes sense from scum's POV is that he was quickhammered because he listed TGP as a scumread).

Basically like COA said, as town this game is about trying to form a townblock by identifying people who clearly are posting in such a way that they

KNOW

who the town leader is (that's why I think it's important to find a way to somehow crumb that you know who the town leader is on day one, because the later you do this the less believable it becomes). As scum, you have to approach this game similar to how you would approach town in a "normal" game, in the sense that you have to try to accurately read people to determine who the town leader is (although in a “normal” game of Mafia scum still has to try and read people if they want to identify the town power roles). In a normal 7-town vs 2-mafia game it's very unlikely that town will catch BOTH scum with town power roles alone; usually correctly reading at least one scum anyways is required to win the game. So I think it's fair here that scum has to correctly identify the town leader before lylo if they 1) don't want the town leader to make it to lylo and 2) don't want plans like TGP's plan to be used against them to reveal them as scum (i.e., by revealing that they don't know who the town leader is even though they already nightkilled the town leader but are unaware of this fact).

[Not_Mafia]

I was killed n1 and that means I'm the best

[volxen]

I was killed n1 and that means I'm the best

Yes, you're MVP because you managed to plant the idea that you were the town leader just because you and Yellowsnow back-to-back voted Vedith. Well done!

Have you ever been nightkilled on night one before Not_Mafia? That legitimately was probably the most shocking moment in the game.

[PenguinPower]

Hey, scum almost killed CoA before she made a single post. In retrospect, maybe they should have.

Yes we should have. TTTT changed it and I wasn’t around to change it back. As I said in the game thread, scum me always kills CoA there.

[Not_Mafia]

I was killed n1 and that means I'm the best

Yes, you're MVP because you managed to plant the idea that you were the town leader just because you and Yellowsnow back-to-back voted Vedith. Well done!

Have you ever been nightkilled on night one before Not_Mafia? That legitimately was probably the most shocking moment in the game.

Yeah in Perpetual MYLO

[TTTT]

I was killed n1 and that means I'm the best

as scum I will confirm this
NM is the best

[Not_Mafia]

tybby

[Auro]

@Volx: The NM NK was indicative of scum wrongly having guessed the TL (which was why I was adamant about YS claiming).

NM was a bad NK also because there wasn't enough reason to townblock him; same would've applied to CoA but luckily she posted the PoE immediately.

[volxen]

@Volx: The NM NK was indicative of scum wrongly having guessed the TL (which was why I was adamant about YS claiming).

NM was a bad NK also because there wasn't enough reason to townblock him; same would've applied to CoA but luckily she posted the PoE immediately.

@Auro that is one possible theory, but the Not_Mafia nightkill in and of itself didn't prove that that

had

to be the reason why they killed him. Day one went arguably very well for scum with a townie getting mislynched on page two. Even if they had figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, killing him on night one would have been incredibly risky, because then everyone starts to wonder if the game has already been compromised. The main thing is that scum can't afford for TGP to make it all the way to lylo (well, unless they are incredibly confident that they can get TGP to sheep them), but that doesn't mean they have to kill him right away. It makes sense that if COA and Penguin were scum together, and they figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, that they make an extremely WIFOMy nightkill on night one by nightkilling Not_Mafia (I think it would be fair to say that in general nightkilling Not_Mafia is bound to generate WIFOM), and have COA come out of the gates on day two looking like locktown who has already solved the game. To further her "locktown" status, she starts by hard-bussing Penguin (who's day one play was highly indicative of the fact that he did NOT know who the town leader was anyways), and then sets up TTTT and Yellowsnow as back-to-back mislynches. That was my scum!COA theory if TTTT had flipped town.

Auro, couldn't you see yourself making a play like that if you were scum, and you deduced that TGP was the town leader on night one? I don't think scum!You would necessarily nightkill him right away, because you would see the benefit of trying to falsely establish yourself as "confirmed town" or at least "nearly confirmed town" at the beginning of day two. It would be easier for you to do that on day two if TGP were still alive, because no one could reasonably argue that the game was already compromised at that point.

And as our Starcraft 2 game proved, sometimes leaving confirmed town alive can actually benefit scum. After all, Varsoon was outed as the town-aligned vigilante on day one, and he survived four consecutive night phases without being nightkilled and survived all the way to five-player lylo.

[Not_Mafia]

I was killed because of my supreme skill and talent

[CultOfAthena]

So I do want people's feedback on this setup, because I think the concept is interesting and it was definitely cool how the town members went about forming a townblock. If the scum had either caught on earlier to what had happened (especially if TTTT had been able to come in and do something similar to what CoA did), of if PP had been able to bluff his way out by saying how obvious it should be that he was town, they would have been able to put up more of a fight, but I do think that 7:2 is probably too difficult of a ratio for scum.

I suggested in the dead thread running this at 5:2, which might be perfect because after the Vedith mislynch this would have gone into LYLO, and then people's paranoia D2 of someone like CoA or Auro snowing everyone would have been way higher than it was. Another possibility is running it at 8:3, because then scum have more chances to get one of their members into the townblock. (i.e. if they think there's a decent chance X is the leader, they can have one of their members start playing like X is the leader and if they're wrong then it's not the end of the world.)

If I ran it at either of those ratios, would you guys play it again? Which one would you prefer?

Smaller numbers definitely seems like a better idea to me. Bluntly, I think that towns are probably

really bad

at actually concealing the identity of the TL – it doesn't help that it's a "chain is only strong as it's weakest link"-type situation. One townie really bad at not revealing the TL ruins it for everyone.

I think this game was a little bit of a fluke in that D1 was cut short really quickly, and from an outside perspective there could be a few possible candidates for TL. NM I think was deliberately baiting being TL, which was a pretty good play – I don't think I could've locktowned him if he were alive. Had D1 gone on for longer, I have no doubt that TGP would have been outed, and the idea of that happening D1 of a larger game and then becoming basically mountainous doesn't sound all that great to me.

Dead thread says I was "anti-town when it comes to voting." I voted one guy who voted the town leader so that should be an instalynch, so I don't get that comment.

This is kind of what I'm referring to. Voting someone just because they voted the TL... is a great way to instantly reveal the TL's identity. Similarly, never voting the TL and not treating them like any other player is another great way to reveal their identity.

Scum, you played well, although TTTT not posting gave you away.

day1 was over before I even saw it started
CoA had solved the game before I saw day2 started
at that point my goal became to get lynched as scum in a game without posting or being replaced

I kind of figured that at some point you just decided to 0 post the game

for future runs
I suggest TL flips as TL, not VT
it's way too easy to get mechanical clears in mylo/lylo without that change

For the record, I was actually really confused when I saw TGP flip VT. I thought SS might have made a mod error. Forgot about that part of the setup.

[YellowSnow]

I feel like lynching scum would be worth potentially revealing the town leader.

Similarly I don't think any town should ever vote for the town leader.

[CultOfAthena]

Even if they had figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, killing him on night one would have been incredibly risky, because then everyone starts to wonder if the game has already been compromised.

The main thing is that scum can't afford for TGP to make it all the way to lylo (well, unless they are incredibly confident that they can get TGP to sheep them), but that doesn't mean they have to kill him right away. It makes sense that if COA and Penguin were scum together, and they figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, that they make an extremely WIFOMy nightkill on night one by nightkilling Not_Mafia (I think it would be fair to say that in general nightkilling Not_Mafia is bound to generate WIFOM), and have COA come out of the gates on day two looking like locktown who has already solved the game. To further her "locktown" status, she starts by hard-bussing Penguin (who's day one play was highly indicative of the fact that he did NOT know who the town leader was anyways), and then sets up TTTT and Yellowsnow as back-to-back mislynches. That was my scum!COA theory if TTTT had flipped town.

No... sorry. I really don't think any of that makes sense at all. I don't really see the benefit to not killing the TL as soon as possible if you believe you know their identity. For one, you'll probably be able to tell if you're right or wrong the following day, and it's a big gamble if you're not right.

That plan also doesn't really make a lot of sense. Like, maybe if I was some nth degree scum player... but probably not. If we already know the TL, why not have both of us just act like we're town?

Anyways. Doesn't really matter given that the game didn't go that way at all, but I do think that that kind of wild theorizing tends to distract you from the often simpler actual solution.

[CultOfAthena]

Similarly I don't think any town should ever vote for the town leader.

Why? I disagree with this very strongly, but I just want to know where you're coming from.

[CultOfAthena]

Oh, and for the record, Penguin – I don't think I would be that mad about getting shot without posting once in a game... it's a little flattering.

[Auro]

That plan also doesn't really make a lot of sense.

Would be pretty clever if scum knew the TL though, since killing the TL D1 makes it known information that scum prolly guessed.

One of the reasons I wasn't as paranoid about you after your D2 PoE is that I reasoned you'd never shoot Not_Mafia knowing the TL, since he'd be a PoE mislynch.

[CultOfAthena]

Meh... giving it more thought, it's not a bad plan. Kind of clever, actually. I don't think bussing would be the way to go in that scenario, though, nor do I think that plan makes sense with an NM kill.

[volxen]

Even if they had figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, killing him on night one would have been incredibly risky, because then everyone starts to wonder if the game has already been compromised.

The main thing is that scum can't afford for TGP to make it all the way to lylo (well, unless they are incredibly confident that they can get TGP to sheep them), but that doesn't mean they have to kill him right away. It makes sense that if COA and Penguin were scum together, and they figured out that TGP was the town leader on night one, that they make an extremely WIFOMy nightkill on night one by nightkilling Not_Mafia (I think it would be fair to say that in general nightkilling Not_Mafia is bound to generate WIFOM), and have COA come out of the gates on day two looking like locktown who has already solved the game. To further her "locktown" status, she starts by hard-bussing Penguin (who's day one play was highly indicative of the fact that he did NOT know who the town leader was anyways), and then sets up TTTT and Yellowsnow as back-to-back mislynches. That was my scum!COA theory if TTTT had flipped town.

No... sorry. I really don't think any of that makes sense at all. I don't really see the benefit to not killing the TL as soon as possible if you believe you know their identity. For one, you'll probably be able to tell if you're right or wrong the following day, and it's a big gamble if you're not right.

That plan also doesn't really make a lot of sense. Like, maybe if I was some nth degree scum player... but probably not. If we already know the TL, why not have both of us just act like we're town?

Anyways. Doesn't really matter given that the game didn't go that way at all, but I do think that that kind of wild theorizing tends to distract you from the often simpler actual solution.

Well Auro is an nth degree scum player, so I think he would have done it if he were scum in this game. I don't think he would have necessarily nightkilled Not_Mafia specifically, but I think he wouldn't have nightkilled the town leader on night one. And you've been on the site for a while and I've never played with you, so I thought I should assume the possibility that you might be an nth degree scum player as well.

If I was scum and figured out who the town leader was on night one, and if I had thought of a plan like that that early on, I would have definitely at least suggested it to my scumbuddy. I don't know though whether I would have become 100% convinced of TGP being the town leader based on day one play alone if I were scum in this game, or if I would have thought of such a plan like that at that early stage of the game.

And it didn't distract me from the simplest solution (that TTTT was scum, which I still believed most likely was the case), rather you being scum was the only logical explanation that made sense if TTTT was somehow town. Yellowsnow was 100% confirmed town from my point of view, and Auro was not confirmed town, but he was a lot less likely than you to be scum because of that one post he made on day one.

I'm happy the simple solution ended up being the correct solution (not every single game needs to have deepwolves!), but I do wish TTTT would have participated in the game instead of being a recluse.

[Auro]

I suggested in the dead thread running this at 5:2, which might be perfect because after the Vedith mislynch this would have gone into LYLO, and then people's paranoia D2 of someone like CoA or Auro snowing everyone would have been way higher than it was. Another possibility is running it at 8:3, because then scum have more chances to get one of their members into the townblock. (i.e. if they think there's a decent chance X is the leader, they can have one of their members start playing like X is the leader and if they're wrong then it's not the end of the world.)

I'd play 8:3!

[Something_Smart]

I feel like lynching scum would be worth potentially revealing the town leader.

Similarly I don't think any town should ever vote for the town leader.

Not gonna lie I would totally vote for the leader if I were town in this setup

[Something_Smart]

In fact that would actually be great. You run the leader up to L-1, and then if scum hammers (or even intent to hammers), you not only have confirmed scum, but you can probably clear a bunch of townies based on them knowing without a doubt that that person won't flip town

[Auro]

@S_S: I didn't want to replace as scum because I felt this was pretty town-sided, haha. Plus I've rolled scum way too many times in my completed games and it's more of a chore at this point

Yeah the whole point of this is to differentiate when town is deliberately doing that versus scum normally targeting TL, right? Except for the hammering itself, scum can bluff their way into this. They can avoid the hammer-test strat by simply not hammering ever in D1, they can prolly wait to see other townies react to it and judge.

[Vedith]

Btw thanks for the game SS. Loved the setup.
And for anyone wondering why I said TGP as Scum, it should have been seen as obvious if you were town that I was just throwing Scum off.
In this setup Scum will never, never give such reads so early.
I made it a point to put in as many reads by that point to show this.

I was confident in PP more than not because voting me showing as friendly and then moving onto a safe target pretty quickly where noone (although only NM posted) had questions my vote or TGP's. This told Scum that it was a safe place to vote on. If PP kept his vote on me and claimed it to be a friendly vote I would have probably defended him and called him town for it.

One thing I noticed is how obvious it was that NM wasn't the leader. As town it's probably best to not give away that the leader was still alive in anyway considering it doesn't say on flip.

[Micc]