Micro 931: Avalon Mafia
- Farkran
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We actually took a huge amount of notes and discussed a lot in discord (me and ali), so, to summarize our reasoning/decisions in this game:
- Day 1 we knew shit, we scumread klick initially but eventually came to scumreading shiro and willing to lynch him regardless of PR reads.
- Day 2 we started analyzing scum interactions with shiro, thought about how the PRs would play and that ended up believing that Merlin would join a wagon against scum mid-position, but probably wouldn't spearhead a scum lynch very early. That was just an assumption, but after seeing FA had a deathtunnel against gobble and declared to have no reads on shiro, we ruled out FA as a plausible merlin and decided that Kerset could be the player to sheep. FA was also in our scumpool so we lynched FA d2. We were very surprised by the persival claim
- During d3 we tried to produce an explanation for that claim after the town fllip, but couldn't come up with any that we liked, so we scrapped our kerset=merlin theory and looked for a world where things would make sense, and we identified two options that could have been easily verified by lynching either chemist or gobble.
This is our last relevant position, once we sort out between those two, game was solved (dk was morg instead of gobble but w/e)
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Kerset he/sheMafia Scum
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Most people were 'mindmelding' instead of scumhunting in this game.In post 639, gobbledygook wrote:
Yeah I felt I was pretty obvscum this game too, was so surprised I won the 1v1 against youIn post 637, Frozen Angel wrote:You all had goble cleared - I think cause of meta. I couldn't get it at all.giv me pagetop :(- Kerset
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- Farkran
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Anyways, the game is way more scumsided than the average setup here on ms. They start with a base 20% chance to win the game regardless of read accuracy, then they go from there up with a chance of winning by surviving, or ruling out implausible merlins at endgame.
I don't mean this as criticism, i think it's roughly the exact amount of balance a game should have. I am a strong supporter of stronger scum setups on ms, this is pretty much where i would place the ideal spot.Farkran is back poggers-Alisae- DkKoba
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- Frozen Angel
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In the contrary, I think we all played day 1 really badly. Horribly awful. a lot of faulty reads being thrown out without actual reasoning and then being used as base read - which most kept till later stages of game without evaluating them. No one was trying to understand there is mod information in-game so sheeping is actually very important in this game - to trust more than your own reads - and that to hide it they must act like they are merlin too - all beside Klick. Yes scum might add misinformation - that's what must be done here - hunting between information and misinformation and acting like it's your own. players including merlin must be more active pushing this and that and "finding the mod information that they know exists in-game"
not all being passive and pushing random crap the way their heart desires.
pedit: and true that this game is scumsided. mechanics are interesting - its just the nature of game to give scum more chance to win and make it harder for town.False tears bring pain to those around you
False smile brings pain to one's self
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The most common AitP iteration has the same odds but there you can't lynch the king. It is fine.In post 653, Farkran wrote:Anyways, the game is way more scumsided than the average setup here on ms. They start with a base 20% chance to win the game regardless of read accuracy, then they go from there up with a chance of winning by surviving, or ruling out implausible merlins at endgame.giv me pagetop :(- Kerset
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- Chemist1422
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their ISO was fluffy and I had to act like I had some readsIn post 657, Kerset wrote:Chemist, klick, wonderwell: Why did you decide to pick shiro on d1?- Klick
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It started as a pressure vote but then they gave me fuck-all to read them from in response to that pressure and I could see them easily flipping scum (in contrast to a couple of others being townreads by that point). And my philosophy going in was to try to be fairly assertive on a scum lynch Day 1 in a way that would make me look like a plausible Merlin.
I also reasoned that if Shiro was actually town then they were mislynch bait for D2 and we might need to lynch her D1 to have a shot at getting all the town to work together D2.- Klick
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What I find interesting here actually is that Kerset knew Morgana was on the scum wagonIn post 350, RadiantCowbells wrote:Votecount 1.15
Shiro (5): DkKoba, Chemist1422, Wonderwell, Frozen Angel, Klick
Klick (1): gobbledygook
Chemist1422 (1): Kerset
gobbledygook (0):
Kerset (0):
Wonderwell (0):
DkKoba (0):
Frozen Angel (0):
Not Voting: Shiro
With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.
Doesn't seem like I need to be imposing a deadline here TbH
I feel like this VC points strongly to gobble-scum from Kerset's point of view tbh- Farkran
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Well, i guess this is where we disagree mostly, and before determining who's correct i'd like to play this setup again, with a different role, and i suggest that you do the same if the opportunity arises. It is my opinion that added knowledge changes your perpspective dramatically, because you subconsciously notice things that would be otherwise drowned into a sea of wifom. I mean, when you have mod-knowledge that lets you filter the useless information given by the ignorant players, be them town or scum, it's easier to say "how could you miss this? It was freaking obvious omg". It's very similar to the metaphor of finding a needle in a haystack - it gets way easier when you have a metal detector, doesn't matter if the needle stings whereas the straws do not - it's really not obvious when you have no tool to work with.In post 655, Frozen Angel wrote:In the contrary, I think we all played day 1 really badly. Horribly awful. a lot of faulty reads being thrown out without actual reasoning and then being used as base read - which most kept till later stages of game without evaluating them. No one was trying to understand there is mod information in-game so sheeping is actually very important in this game - to trust more than your own reads - and that to hide it they must act like they are merlin too - all beside Klick. Yes scum might add misinformation - that's what must be done here - hunting between information and misinformation and acting like it's your own. players including merlin must be more active pushing this and that and "finding the mod information that they know exists in-game"
not all being passive and pushing random crap the way their heart desires.
pedit: and true that this game is scumsided. mechanics are interesting - its just the nature of game to give scum more chance to win and make it harder for town.
I think d1 was played the way the setup was meant to be played, all town players should strive to display an average amount of ignorance but still lynching correct in the end. Now if it was possible, the perfect town should have perfect reads at all times, but this is not a realistic expectation. I think merlin could afford to allow a mislynch to happen, and then comeback with a good progression on scum on the following days if the town reads fall subpar during d2.
If i had another advice to share, it would be for persival not to push merlin or morgana before he had a clear view of the full setup, so that he can act as a merlin substitute if needed. For instance - and i have already told this to kerset - if he pushed gobble d2, this game would have been sooooo much different and town might probably have won. I'm 100% sure we would have sheeped him on gobble, FA was already on him so that means gobble is L-1 with klick or chemist ready to hammer at their own discretion. Then persival can push against his best guess at morgana and create wifom. This is a mistake from morgana as well, because if morgana and merlin agrees on their scumreads, it's bad for scum to defend assuming persival is doing a good jobFarkran is back poggers-Alisae- Farkran
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No gamesolving attempt from the slot after several pages with intense interactions, i would lynch there in any mafia gameIn post 657, Kerset wrote:Chemist, klick, wonderwell: Why did you decide to pick shiro on d1?Farkran is back poggers-Alisae- Klick
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Precisely my point <3In post 660, Klick wrote:
What I find interesting here actually is that Kerset knew Morgana was on the scum wagonIn post 350, RadiantCowbells wrote:Votecount 1.15
Shiro (5): DkKoba, Chemist1422, Wonderwell, Frozen Angel, Klick
Klick (1): gobbledygook
Chemist1422 (1): Kerset
gobbledygook (0):
Kerset (0):
Wonderwell (0):
DkKoba (0):
Frozen Angel (0):
Not Voting: Shiro
With 8 alive it's 5 to lynch.
Doesn't seem like I need to be imposing a deadline here TbH
I feel like this VC points strongly to gobble-scum from Kerset's point of view tbhFarkran is back poggers-Alisae- Frozen Angel
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I didn't say you had to have perfect reads.
I'm just saying you had to actually scum hunt instead of vomiting reads.
and yeah well I thought about percival claiming as the only way I can keep merlin like info game. I tried to turn persival slot to a merlin by solving the game for them and acting like I know what is persival pair by framing someone who voted good and like merlin as merlin. I'm not saying it was the correct approach. maybe without it we would win. but at that point it felt like the correct play and I went with it knowing scum can remove me from game any moment they like as I already had 2 towns voting me where I did it.False tears bring pain to those around you
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I think you overvalued the benefits of the Merlin knowledge vs the downsides of getting caught as Merlin, particularly when we had already lynched one scum.In post 665, Frozen Angel wrote:I didn't say you had to have perfect reads.
I'm just saying you had to actually scum hunt instead of vomiting reads.
and yeah well I thought about percival claiming as the only way I can keep merlin like info game. I tried to turn persival slot to a merlin by solving the game for them and acting like I know what is persival pair by framing someone who voted good and like merlin as merlin. I'm not saying it was the correct approach. maybe without it we would win. but at that point it felt like the correct play and I went with it knowing scum can remove me from game any moment they like as I already had 2 towns voting me where I did it.
Having extremely accurate reads, only pushing scum, and doing the gambit made town's odds of winning very low, because in order for town to win Merlin must remain hidden, and you made yourself a very likely Merlin.
There was a decent chance that had you held off for a bit I'd have switched my vote over from you to gobble. I was already considering it.- Farkran
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/prein to any hostIn post 597, RadiantCowbells wrote:Anyone interested in seeing this run again?
I thought it was neat.Farkran is back poggers-Alisae- Klick
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I'm not gonna defend myself against this accusation. I made a gambit to both hide that I'm merlin and out the info and I lost and it lost the game. I still am kinda sure that without it our win rate was way lower so.In post 667, Klick wrote:
I think you overvalued the benefits of the Merlin knowledge vs the downsides of getting caught as Merlin, particularly when we had already lynched one scum.In post 665, Frozen Angel wrote:I didn't say you had to have perfect reads.
I'm just saying you had to actually scum hunt instead of vomiting reads.
and yeah well I thought about percival claiming as the only way I can keep merlin like info game. I tried to turn persival slot to a merlin by solving the game for them and acting like I know what is persival pair by framing someone who voted good and like merlin as merlin. I'm not saying it was the correct approach. maybe without it we would win. but at that point it felt like the correct play and I went with it knowing scum can remove me from game any moment they like as I already had 2 towns voting me where I did it.
Having extremely accurate reads, only pushing scum, and doing the gambit made town's odds of winning very low, because in order for town to win Merlin must remain hidden, and you made yourself a very likely Merlin.
There was a decent chance that had you held off for a bit I'd have switched my vote over from you to gobble. I was already considering it.False tears bring pain to those around you
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Setup sounds very cool! I'd /in if someone mods this setup again- RadiantCowbells
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