Micro 789 Alternating 9p Scum Talk

[Kmd4390]

Here is the scum PT for GreenLiquid and Lovebird. This thread will be open at night.

[Lovebird]

Lol, scum again.

[Lovebird]

Can't really think of anything to say. Good luck, I guess.

[Lovebird]

This thread will be open at night.

Mod, only open for night?

Yes

[Lovebird]

I guess I just won a scum game vs buj and christopher, so they might focus on me more. Think I can play different enough from there, though.

[GreenLiquid]

Hey Lovebird!

This is my first scum game since returning from my 10-year break; I'm not in any other games so I'll be putting my all into this one, but please forgive me if I make any misplays. I've played one other (Newbie) game since returning, which is linked on my wiki page. I am a little anxious because at the end of that game, the IC advised me that it would be hard for me to play scum due to being easily townread in that game. Thankfully, none of the players in this game were in that one, but just to be sure I am going to do my best to "scumhunt" day one in order to be townread.

Let's do our best to watch for any doc / cop tells as I imagine neutralizing them will be essential to winning this setup. If you know any good tells for anyone on the player list, please let me know!

[GreenLiquid]

Do you happen to know who in this player list would be considered the strongest town player(s)?

[Lovebird]

Do you happen to know who in this player list would be considered the strongest town player(s)?

None I guess lol. Maybe you, even. Though, I don't know a few people, so maybe major and rask are strong.

[Lovebird]

Wow, 10 years. Good luck. Think you'll do great.

[GreenLiquid]

Thank you! I was just a wee little GreenPuddle back in those days so I don't feel super experienced, but we'll see.

Good luck to you as well!

[Kmd4390]

Locked for Day 1 start

[Kmd4390]

Open for N1

[GreenLiquid]

Hey Lovebird!

First off, I am really sorry about 443. I sprinkled in a couple of points against you in order to maintain the credibility of my stated read against you (in the hopes of keeping us distanced), but people leaped on that part of the post somehow and that nearly got you lynched D1. That was a straight-up misplay on my part, though I still don't understand why exactly they latched onto that so hard...

At the beginning of day I made a push against your initial town read because I figured it wouldn't be taken too far and would be a good way to look like I'm game solving early. After Raskie mentioned a negative association between us I figured I could distance effectively by applying light pressure on you during the day. Unfortunately I think I boxed myself in too much on that read, as I don't have a plausible way to reverse course on it right now. This is my first post-hiatus scum game so my apologies for messing up on that front -- I'll just have to do better next game.

The Not_Mafia quickhammer was completely unexpected and also great for us! ZZZX is going to look scummy tomorrow but I think we should avoid coming out too strongly against him right off the bat. I think there may be a bit of backlash against those who rush in to scum read him, especially given how this town has been operating. I might wait a real-life day or so just to see how things are shaking out before weighing in.

I didn't pick up any clear PR slips or reads today. :/ I am going to have to re-read a bit tomorrow night to see if I can catch something. I have a feeling that the lurkier slots are more likely to be power roles, plus I think the doctor is likely to protect in {me, CheekyTeeky} (depending on who the doc is) so we might want to shoot someone lurkier like Christopher's replacement (who may shake up the game state in an unpredictable way upon replacing in, a la Cheeky).

I don't have a lot of time before bed tonight so I can't offer more than that. For our shot choice analysis I'm going to focus on:

1. Who is likely to be protected, so we can avoid hitting the doc's target.
2. Who would be the most helpful for us to kill for social reasons. I think either trying to frame someone by shooting a player who's been pushing on a townie, or shooting someone likely to join a wagon against you, would be good options.
3. Who is likely to be a PR.

I'll try to get up something helpful on all three fronts tomorrow night. Lemme know what you think and if you found any good PR tells!

[GreenLiquid]

Also @Not_Mafia for the post-game: I have no idea what the heck you were up to this game because you really did seem less invested than your usual town or even scum meta. I have a feeling I would have scum read you here even as town. That said, I do see some merit in what you've been doing for associative reasoning later in the game -- that's partly why I avoided pushing on you any more than as a compromise lynch. We'll see how that pans out.

[GreenLiquid]

Oh yeah, I'm probably going to get called out D2 on my ill-advised intent to hammer on Not_Mafia. As soon as Cheeky started defending him I knew I needed to dial that back ASAP. Unfortunately that post is still there for anyone who wants to ISO me and I'd have a hell of a time explaining it.

[Lovebird]

Hi. Don't need to apologize for anything, I've been playing kind of lazy. Will try to be reinvigorated start of next day.

[Lovebird]

Don't think I remember any pr tells. Maybe there are vt tells to find, though.

[Lovebird]

Long term it's probably important that I get lynched honestly. Most people set us up as not aligned, and only so long you can go on scumreading me without voting me. I might get townier tomorrow but if the moment comes where you think it's the best play then do it. I'll claim cop at l1.

[Lovebird]

Oh yeah, check meta on rask to see if he claims vt at L1 or only at intent. His comment about claiming later pinged me as potential pr. I'll check, he might have acted like he wasn't going to be lynched even at L1.

[Lovebird]

Oh yeah, I'm probably going to get called out D2 on my ill-advised intent to hammer on Not_Mafia. As soon as Cheeky started defending him I knew I needed to dial that back ASAP. Unfortunately that post is still there for anyone who wants to ISO me and I'd have a hell of a time explaining it.

Don't think this'll be too bad really.

[GreenLiquid]

Oh yeah, check meta on rask to see if he claims vt at L1 or only at intent. His comment about claiming later pinged me as potential pr. I'll check, he might have acted like he wasn't going to be lynched even at L1.

I'm having trouble finding games with Rask as a power role where he was compelled to claim by a wagon. He was Town Tracker in Micro 718 but claimed as part of a mass claim. I think we might have to go with our guts on that one.

[GreenLiquid]

Raskie seems like a decent kill choice for a few reasons:

- He could be a power role, as you pointed out.
- I don't think he's extremely likely to be protected, although he's more likely to be protected than some.
- His death puts no real undue suspicion on me and maybe only a little on you, as he didn't push active player especially hard. It could make ZZZX look bad due to Raskie's push on that slot, although some might argue that his push on ZZZX was only due to inactivity and thus wouldn't carry into D2 after ZZZX posts his update.

On the other hand, there are downsides:

- I think Raskie is a convenient player for me to scum read more over the course of the next day to make my reads look like they're progressing, or to start town reading if he steps up his own reads game, in order to look believably dynamic.
- We could probably get him mislynched.

Also, I see that Korina replaced Christopher. Do you know anything about his ability as a player? He seems kind of new so he may not be a huge threat, but the unpredictability of his reads could present a risk of upsetting the current state of the game. Other players might realize that too if we shoot him, though, and start questioning consensus town reads like me. Hard to say.

BuJaber would be a great choice if he weren't pushing me and you specifically. If we took that shot, we'd have to be ready to argue that the kill was either a frame or that scum must have picked up PR vibes from him. Personally, I don't think he's a PR so that's probably not going to go over very well. BuJaber positively

screams

town and I'm glad my cases on him eventually resulted in serious town suspicion against his slot or else he'd be near to consensus town status by now. I think he's a stronger player than most people are giving him credit for, with his only real weakness being his difficulty making himself understood. Fortunately that's an easy-to-abuse weakness!

The other players are bad choices in my opinion, for various reasons:

- Iconeum: He's decent mislynch bait and also was the only remaining vote on you at the end of day. He also pushed hard against you in the last page. You'd probably have to fight an uphill battle defending yourself if we killed him.
- CheekyTeeky: She's a strong player but likely to be protected, especially because Not_Mafia flipped green.
- ZZZX: He's mislynch bait and presents similar risks to killing Korina. Not convinced we profit much from this, although he could be a PR.

[GreenLiquid]

We might also want to think about VCA. I think the two key counts to focus on are the final vote count:

Not_Mafia

- 5 - christopher, BuJaber, Raskolnikov,

lovebird

, ZZZX
ZZZX - 2 -

Not_Mafia

, CheekyTeeky

Lovebird

- 1 - Iconeum
BuJaber - 1 -

Greenliquid

And the vote count from the original deadline, when you were at L-1:

Lovebird

- 4 - BuJaber, Iconeum,

Not_Mafia

, Raskolnikov

Not_Mafia

- 1 - christopher
BuJaber - 2 -

GreenLiquid

, CheekyTeeky

Conventional wisdom says that scum shoot off the wagon when they were voting on it, and they shoot on the wagon when they were voting off it. There's also generally a belief that scum tend to split their votes, but I think we get around that somewhat due to the neg. association between our slots. If we RIP Raskie, per VCA that makes me and Iconeum look suspicious, as we were on vanity wagons at lynch. I think this is easy enough to explain in my case because there was genuine pressure on BuJaber near deadline, but it's a valid concern I guess.

If we bury BuJaber, I think something similar applies except it makes me look a bit worse VCA-wise due to my vanity wagon, and also denies me my strongest scum read going into D2. I think that's too risky of a play for me to get away with in my very first post-hiatus scum game so I'd rather not go for it unless you think we can pull it off.

If we kill Korina, I don't think that does much to VCA.

I don't think any of the players in this game have a propensity toward VCA so we could also just ignore it completely. Not sure about Korina though, and Raskie did comment in the "try your hand at VCA" thread in Mafia Discussions so maybe he'd have a go at it.

[GreenLiquid]

I'm curious what reads you want to lead with into D2. I think I'll lay low for the first day or so, but assuming nothing interesting happens I'd like to interrogate ZZZX without coming out with a read against him immediately, continue casing Raskie and BuJaber, and try to avoid casing you in the hopes of getting the town to ignore you.

Long term it's probably important that I get lynched honestly. Most people set us up as not aligned, and only so long you can go on scumreading me without voting me. I might get townier tomorrow but if the moment comes where you think it's the best play then do it. I'll claim cop at l1.

I really hope I don't have to throw you under but it may happen. I think I have enough town cred that I could start to move a bit towards null reading you D2 without people worrying too much about it. If you do end up getting wagoned and you claim cop, I'm going to point to post 610 as a PR soft, although I might still lynch you if others are clearly willing to commit.
Who would be your hypo investigation target N2 if you do end up anticipating a cop claim D3?

[GreenLiquid]

I may not be online at deadline so I'm going to put in an order. If you think it's not the best move, feel free to replace it with something else. I'm more of a newbie to the scum game than you are, so if you feel I'm off base, don't hesitate to correct me!

GreenLiquid shoots Raskolnikov

Received

I really hope Raskie doesn't lose all his interest in Mafia again because of this game, as he suggested at one point during the day. I feel like I gelled with him better than anyone else and I get a sense of real genuineness and down-to-earthness out of his posts. But... I think this may be the right move for tonight.