Open 909 | ketchup777 Notes PT

[ketchup777]

wahoo

[ketchup777]

loving the ketchup bottle (:

[ketchup777]

I wanted to work out the maths of no lim twice strategy without spewing myself as VT but ig it’ll be nice to have somewhere better than a Google doc and notes app to dump all my thoughts lol

[ketchup777]

@dann you can publish this when the game ends btw (:

[ketchup777]

885 I outed myself as VT aaahhhhh

[ketchup777]

if I’m PR I wouldn’t have thought the claim was srs

[ketchup777]

hopefully scum think I might be baiting them

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or don’t notice

[ketchup777]

that’d work too!

[ketchup777]

i won’t draw attention to it until massclajm

[ketchup777]

945 Ydrasse seems to have softed cop

[ketchup777]

955 I’m letting Jackson know I saw the soft too (I assume that’s what his "Interesting" post was)

[ketchup777]

959 I’ll fakesoft doctor lol

[ketchup777]

964 HEM says 'cop out' but I don’t believe that for a sec

[ketchup777]

992 and 994 could be interesting anti-purplemango points

[ketchup777]

Setup Info

Newbie Setup

Newbie Setup

NewD3 (as designed by RadiantCowbells):

	A	B	C
Mafia	Mafia Roleblocker	Mafia Rolecop	Mafia Goon
Row 1	Town Cop and Town Doctor	Town Tracker and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Cop and Vanilla Townie
Row 2	Town Jailkeeper and Town Tracker	Town Jailkeeper and Town Friendly Neighbor	Town Jailkeeper and Vanilla Townie
Row 3	Town Mason and Town Mason	Town Tracker and Town Doctor	Town Mason and Town Mason

Each Newbie Game will be given a setup that incorporates one mafia role from the top of a column, and then two town roles from a row below the selected mafia role. The remaining six roles will be filled in by

one mafia goon

and

five vanilla townies

appropriately, to create a

2-mafia

and

7-town

setup.

All Newbie games use the Natural Action Resolution system for determining Night action effects.

Mafia Roleblocker

action takes precedence over a

Town Jailkeeper

action should that apply.

Mafia are able to communicate in their Private Topic at all times, and Mafia Power Roles are able to use their role ability and the factional kill in the same night.

Full Setups:

Column A & Row 1:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Cop, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 2:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Tracker, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column A & Row 3:

Mafia Roleblocker, Mafia Goon, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 1:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 2:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Jailkeeper, Town Friendly Neighbor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column B & Row 3:

Mafia Rolecop, Mafia Goon, Town Tracker, Town Doctor, Vanilla Townie x 5

Column C & Row 1:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Cop, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 2:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Jailkeeper, Vanilla Townie x 6

Column C & Row 3:

Mafia Goon x 2, Town Mason x2, Vanilla Townie x 5
[/area]

[ketchup777]

ok

[ketchup777]

KJQ is so town

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Flush might be town

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jackson might be town

[ketchup777]

i am town

[ketchup777]

so 2 of {Ydrasse, Skitter(halfasleep), humaneatingmonkey(dragoneater70), zachheus, Purplemango}

[ketchup777]

zach's posts haven't been giving me any confident on his slot

[ketchup777]

dragon made a lot of posts but viebswise they felt off

[ketchup777]

mango could be low-effort scum but that would be disappointing

[ketchup777]

ydrasse is tricky but I lean town on her for now, ig we'll see abt her cop soft later

[ketchup777]

skitter/halfasleep I can't read yet

[ketchup777]

it's probably skitter and zach or HEM and zach

[ketchup777]

maybe I should vote zach

[ketchup777]

skitter is at e-2 and if i leave to go to zach that'll fall apart tho, ig I'll stay for now

[ketchup777]

KJQ is the only person so far I am definitely not eliminating, here's to hoping she doesn't get nightkilled

[ketchup777]

992 and 994 could be interesting anti-purplemango points

and 1011

[ketchup777]

1014 softing cop lol (first letters I am cop fn [first night] ydrasse). hopefully scum notice but they probs won’t

[ketchup777]

ok time to create 28 1v1s ig

this is gonna crate so much endgame wifom but oh well

[ketchup777]

KayJayQueue
skitter30
halfasleep

ketchup777
Ydrasse
zachheus
JacksonVirgo
DragonEater70
Purplemango
StraightFlush

[ketchup777]

ok that copypaste is cursed

[ketchup777]

@dannflor

you need to update post 0 playerlist to show HEM has replaced dragon

[ketchup777]

if you’re even reading this

[ketchup777]

Template:

Spoiler: 1v1ing everyone for my personal amusement but maybe it will also help me on who I want to vote out

KJQ/Skitter
KJQ/Ydrasse
KJQ/zachheus
KJQ/JacksonVirgo
KJQ/humaneatingmonkey
KJQ/Purplemango
KJQ/StraightFlush
Skitter/Ydrasse
Skitter/zachheus
Skitter/JacksonVirgo
Skitter/humaneatingmonkey
Skitter/Purplemango
Skitter/StraightFlush
Ydrasse/zachheus
Ydrasse/JacksonVirgo
Ydrasse/humaneatingmonkey
Ydrasse/Purplemango
Ydrasse/StraightFlush
zachheus/JacksonVirgo
zachheus/humaneatingmonkey
zachheus/Purplemango
zachheus/StraightFlush
JacksonVirgo/humaneatingmonkey
JacksonVirgo/Purplemango
JacksonVirgo/StraightFlush
humaneatingmonkey/Purplemango
humaneatingmonkey/StraightFlush
Purplemango/StraightFlush

[ketchup777]

everyone started scumreading me aaahhhh

[ketchup777]

maybe I should just pretend I don’t care

[ketchup777]

or maybe I should shut down their arguments

[ketchup777]

or maybe I should distract them with charm and charisma

[ketchup777]

1119 probably just made it worse like I’m groping around in the dark for anything to save me

[ketchup777]

oh well we ball

[ketchup777]

Ah it’s ok KJQ 100% loved it let’s go KJQ

[ketchup777]

me and KJQ are like masons with a locked PT

[ketchup777]

woah I just had a thought for a GIM role, a notes PT cop that can check if someone has a PT which only they can access or not

i won’t add it to the GIM thread till I’m dead here to avoid spewing my role tho ((;

[ketchup777]

HEM posting a fair bit might be hes desperate to save himself as a PR, hmmm

[ketchup777]

Done in order of playerlist. Purple is who I scumread more.

Spoiler: 1v1ing everyone for my personal amusement but maybe it will also help me on who I want to vote out

KJQ/

Skitter

KJQ/

Ydrasse

KJQ/

zachheus

KJQ

/JacksonVirgo
KJQ/

humaneatingmonkey

KJQ/

Purplemango

KJQ/

StraightFlush

Skitter/

Ydrasse

Skitter/

zachheus

Skitter

/JacksonVirgo

Skitter

/humaneatingmonkey

Skitter

/Purplemango

Skitter

/StraightFlush

Ydrasse

/zachheus

Ydrasse

/JacksonVirgo
Ydrasse/

humaneatingmonkey

Ydrasse/

Purplemango

Ydrasse

/StraightFlush

zachheus

/JacksonVirgo
zachheus/

humaneatingmonkey

zachheus/

Purplemango

zachheus

/StraightFlush
JacksonVirgo/

humaneatingmonkey

JacksonVirgo/

Purplemango

JacksonVirgo/

StraightFlush

humaneatingmonkey/

Purplemango

humaneatingmonkey

/StraightFlush

Purplemango

/StraightFlush

Notes:

—> I don’t think scum!jackson wouldn try to fade me day 1 or maybe ever so he just edged Kay out. because I’m town and scum!jackson would know that, and he’d know I’ll be very hard to fade based on our last two games. if I were scum I might be fadable, but scum!jackson knows that’s not the case.
—> Purplemango in purple is funny lol
—> still not sure what to make of Halfasleep self-voting twice in RvS. like scum may not want to make enemies but also I imagine they'd want to fuel wagons sooooo idk
—> Flush still feels pretty towny
—> HEM/purplemango is a tossup. one I should resolve yet I am struggling to. I did think I caught DE early but I’ve been wrong before and may well be wrong again.
—> reading skitter is tough. slight scumlean tho.
—> for zach‘s recent posts, 1081 felt genuine but 1090 felt like opportunistic scum. 1089 'playing twister' well scum twist peoples words so I scumlean that a bit lol
—> purplemango was last to the thread so there could be something in that, also has been intermittent could be playing from the sidelines kinda thing
(:

scumwins (/7):

Purplemango: 6
HEM: 5
Skitter: 5
Ydrasse: 5
zachheus: 4
StraightFlush: 2
KJQ: 1
Jackson: 0

wow, how convenient, I can hedge between 4 people! (I guess this reflects that I am not too confident in sorting my top scumreads yet so that makes sense to me)

VOTE: PurpleMango

[ketchup777]

yeah ok that drafts good time to nuke the main topic

[ketchup777]

beebadoobee

[ketchup777]

i thought I wouldn’t post as much this game yet i did

[ketchup777]

oh well it’ll be worth it if we can win (:

[ketchup777]

@dannflor

you need to update post 0 playerlist to show HEM has replaced dragon

Yeah I’ll make those updates when I get back to a computer

cool (:

[ketchup777]

1184 / 1185 could be HEM/purplemango scum theatre, at least 1185 PurpleMango feels like PurpleMango doesn’t really actually care that he‘s being scumread

[ketchup777]

1176 HEM is probably lying, who doesn’t look at a VC on replace-in

[ketchup777]

i said inthread i would case dragon but like cbaaaa

[ketchup777]

I don’t think zach and skitter are paired, lots of zach‘a efforts have been anti-skitter

[ketchup777]

1253 KJQ also said 'cop out', quoting 'myself'

[ketchup777]

the cop softs are getting out of hand lmaooo

[ketchup777]

as long as we lim inside the ydrasse / zach / HEM / purplemango / skitter30 pool and avoid limming a town PR we should be fairly well-placed

[ketchup777]

idek how to explain my jackson townread. it’s just super inconvenient if he’s not town

[ketchup777]

I’ll try answer him in the morning I guess even tho that looks suspicious ig but I have to sleeeep

[ketchup777]

1292 KJQ big anti-purplemango post

[ketchup777]

ISO number of posts as of 1299

Ketchup777 290
KayJayQueue 264
JacksonVirgo 231
DragonEater70+HEM 175 (120+55)
HalfAsleep+skitter30 75 (24+51)
StraightFlush 73
Ydrasse 65
PurpleMango 42
zachheus 40

[ketchup777]

dannflor: 43 (lol)

[ketchup777]

42*

[ketchup777]

maybe Dragon/HEM are just town after all aaahh

[ketchup777]

nah not yet let’s not go there yet

[ketchup777]

hmmmm

[ketchup777]

Double down mango+HEM or mango+skitter

[ketchup777]

from 1218 I don’t think skitter+flush are paired, feels like skitter is pushing for info in a not SVS way

[ketchup777]

Page 4 begins!

[ketchup777]

the main thread is so deaddd

[ketchup777]

hello future readers

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I’m not insane you’re insane

[ketchup777]

1365 Jackson finally hits us with the townpost we needed to sort him

[ketchup777]

Zach does a

lot

of agreeing with and supporting other peoples points, and original thoughts don’t seem to flow freely. But I think zach might just be nervous town who desperately wants to get people to town read him

[ketchup777]

also zach keeping his avatar as that if he were maf in his first game is bold… projectry had a similarly spooky avatar in his game we played together and he was town for that

[ketchup777]

come back to 1381, jackson+ydrasse+hem dynamic

[ketchup777]

Zach does a

lot

of agreeing with and supporting other peoples points, and original thoughts don’t seem to flow freely. But I think zach might just be nervous town who desperately wants to get people to town read him

around 1371 and stuff

[ketchup777]

Jackson vs HEM and probably also Jackson vs Ydrasse cannot possibly be SvS (around page 56)

[ketchup777]

1407 (page 57) hem vs kjq probs also not SvS

[ketchup777]

1418 StraightFlush megapost

[ketchup777]

mango+halfasleep were scum together in another open, eh? hmmmm

[ketchup777]

1445 hem anti-zach post

[ketchup777]

1344 Skitter+Kay not paired

[ketchup777]

everyone on the purplemango wagon is so damn sus that i think mango is town actually

[ketchup777]

will i get scumread for putting camel at e-1 before they have sent any messages? maybe. i don't want our PRs to be baited nor do i think avoiding an elim on this slot is that helpful

[ketchup777]

Jackson/Flush are not paired based off page 10 interractions

[ketchup777]

Meanwhile, KJQ/camel are not paired based on KJQ coming up with the halfass nickname for halfasleep inthread (on page 9)

[ketchup777]

I should collate these anti-equities

[ketchup777]

one sec then

[ketchup777]

skitter/halfasleep I can't read yet

the ones you can’t read are the dangerous ones!

should I put camel to e-1 for a third time hmmmm

[ketchup777]

I don’t think zach and skitter are paired, lots of zach‘a efforts have been anti-skitter

from 1218 I don’t think skitter+flush are paired, feels like skitter is pushing for info in a not SVS way

Jackson vs HEM and probably also Jackson vs Ydrasse cannot possibly be SvS (around page 56)

1407 (page 57) hem vs kjq probs also not SvS

Jackson/Flush are not paired based off page 10 interractions

Meanwhile, KJQ/camel are not paired based on KJQ coming up with the halfass nickname for halfasleep inthread (on page 9)

Tentatively ruled out:
Zach/Camel
Camel/Flush
Jackson/HEM
Jackson/Ydrasse
HEM/KJQ
Jackson/Flush
KJQ/Camel

[ketchup777]

Ok at first I was scared 3 camel teams are unlikely but then they are all with my toe reads/leans sooo

[ketchup777]

town** aah

[ketchup777]

so spookily I could get more out of a Jackson lim today than any other

[ketchup777]

but also have to think pragmatically, it’s unrealistic for Jackson to go through, especially with only 4 and a bit days left on the deadline methinks

[ketchup777]

and people might start SRing me which could get uncomfortable

[ketchup777]

Honestly I like this whole solving for pairings thing, it’s very vulnerable to messup so I’ll have to review pairings from time to time and only add ones I’m confident don’t have high equity, but yeah otherwise it seems pretty good

[ketchup777]

21 probable teams to go…

[ketchup777]

Jackson’s ISO will probably be rich if I go through it to help eliminate another pairing or two with him

[ketchup777]

If Jackson is scum, he may well have spewed some townies. If someone was having a genuine long conversation with him about something relevant (reads) and not trivial is probably not SvS and may well be TvT.

[ketchup777]

Can’t do that rn at 1:36 am tho!!!!!

[ketchup777]

1570 furthers the feeling of Flush/Camel not being paired

[ketchup777]

hmm let's iso zach and see if we can't rule out another pairing

[ketchup777]

ok from the end of 1252 I don't think zach/flush are paired, it would be very bold to say that your scum partner is your top townread.

[ketchup777]

unlikely pairings:

Zach/Camel
Camel/Flush
Jackson/HEM
Jackson/Ydrasse
HEM/KJQ
Jackson/Flush
KJQ/Camel

[ketchup777]

+Zach/flush

[ketchup777]

+Zach/flush

also from 1527 mmm

[ketchup777]

unlikely pairings:

Zach/Camel
Camel/Flush
Jackson/HEM
Jackson/Ydrasse
HEM/KJQ
Jackson/Flush
KJQ/Camel

ok cool so there are currently no scum on camel's wagon, probably. either they fear to get on or camel is just scum

[ketchup777]

lol the site went down again as i was putting down thoughts about who could have hammered camel

[ketchup777]

i need to double check the timeline but flush+ydrasse could have hamemred but didn't; purplemango wasn't on at the right time and unsure about hem i'll check now

[ketchup777]

ok it doesn't seem like humaneatingmonkey was on at the right time to hammer either

[ketchup777]

or at least, if he was, he didn't make his appearance known

[ketchup777]

ok let's also look back at the brief time halfasleep was with us and see if we can take out any unlikely pairings. i'll also look at halfasleep's just finished scumgame to see when the first point she interracted with her scumbuddy purplemango was

[ketchup777]

ok let's also look back at the brief time halfasleep was with us and see if we can take out any unlikely pairings. i'll also look at halfasleep's just finished scumgame to see when the first point she interracted with her scumbuddy purplemango was

oh ok it was pretty early and substantially so dam

[ketchup777]

blblblblblblbllblblbl

[ketchup777]

let's at least see if halfasleep interracted with purplemango at all this game

[ketchup777]

mmm let's not flip camel yet their jackson case might spew some people if it's long and detailed enough, and if it isn't we can just vote them off then

[ketchup777]

1575 further takes out jackson+flush

[ketchup777]

yeah i honestly just think flush is town, i might hold this back from the main thread for a bit though unless flush becomes in danger of being voting off, I don't want flush to be unnecessarily nightkilled and they've seemed somewhat eager so it's possible they are a PR, although being prodded argues against that a little bit

[ketchup777]

1575 further takes out jackson+flush

honestly it's unlikely flush is paired with any of the 4 camel wagoners (could be paired with camel) with an easy hammer out. but could be LAMIST so i won't jump to conclusions for now

[ketchup777]

unlikely pairings:

Zach/Camel
Camel/Flush
Jackson/HEM
Jackson/Ydrasse
HEM/KJQ
Jackson/Flush
KJQ/Camel
Zach/Flush
KJQ/Jackson

oh yeah adding KJQ/Jackson cos like... their interactions have been way too natural and often to be partnered, methinks

[ketchup777]

Jackson's unvote in 1575 is somewhat mysterious, anyhow

[ketchup777]

ok, no interaction at all between HA and purplemango. this differs from their scumgame in the recently finished Open 906. Purplemango did make it to the thread a little late, but still had ample time to interact with HA. may have feared it a bit from being the scum in the other Open, but I

think[/i/] they're more likely to be cautious TvT or TvS here, probably

[ketchup777]

not quite confident enough to rule out camel/purple but so tempting to rule it out

[ketchup777]

hmm, the 'accidental' emoji in 1579 from Jackson, a 'neutral' emoji, could be him crumbing vanilla townie, a neutral role

[ketchup777]

maybe

[ketchup777]

In purple‘s scum game he voted black once in his first post then unvoted around 500/600 and that was it. maybe purple is just scum again

[ketchup777]

1591 reaffirms that KJQ/Camel are not paired, cool

[ketchup777]

feels like SvS wouldn’t think to prove for details in such a genuine way

[ketchup777]

what a mess

[ketchup777]

what is Jackson doing

[ketchup777]

im probably playing so scummy rn (p67) but I really really want this camel wagon to go through. hopefully I’m universally törnend enough for this to be ok

[ketchup777]

1681 Jackson calling me “Actually insane" oh boy, confrontational Jackson is back, he’s so back
It’s giving me similar vibe flashbacks to when Jackson said my POV was 'actually infuriating' (and we were TvT). So maybe he is town and we are TvTing for a third time (:

[ketchup777]

Jackson/HEM pairing would be too deep for me, I think, tho they are in unison now around p69 (although HEM is voting Jackson…)

[ketchup777]

1706 good reasoning from Jackson; probably a townpost

[ketchup777]

KJQ is so so town holy moly

[ketchup777]

If I were a doctor that’s who I’d protect

[ketchup777]

The doctor role reminds me of being a Jedi in Jedi dodgeball

[ketchup777]

anyone here played Jedi dodgeball?

[ketchup777]

there is no one here to answer

[ketchup777]

so sad

[ketchup777]

You secretly nominate one of your players to be the 'jedi' and if the Jedi high fives people who are out they get back in

[ketchup777]

you cannot, of course, win until you locate and take out the jedi

[ketchup777]

I don’t have much idea as to who our PR(s) are

[ketchup777]

8/9 that we have two PRs

[ketchup777]

Maybe KJQ is our cop and that’s it?

[ketchup777]

hem and Jackson don’t fear a pivot even though they’re potential pivot targets so they are probably not PRs

[ketchup777]

I am not a PR as a VT

[ketchup777]

Zach, Ydrasse, Mango could be reserved PRs

[ketchup777]

snivy claimed not PR

[ketchup777]

Im not getting Mason/Mason vibes

[ketchup777]

There was that whole thing where hem and ydrasse claimed masons with each other but I think it was just some sick bait

[ketchup777]

who does that leave

[ketchup777]

Flush

[ketchup777]

Flush might be a PR, idk. Leaning towards not but he could be

[ketchup777]

Not a PR: Snivy, Ketchup
Probably not a PR: Jackson, HEM
Possibly not a PR: Flush
Could be PR: Zach, Mango, Ydrasse
Likely PR: KJQ

[ketchup777]

Actually I’ll move Mango into flush tier, maybe he would be more engaged as a PR idk

[ketchup777]

dang ok

[ketchup777]

please say KJQ survives the night then holy

[ketchup777]

konnichiha

[ketchup777]

omggg can we just get this camel lim through

[ketchup777]

plzzzzz

[ketchup777]

I know I’m usually on the reserved side but here I feel strongly because it’s a micro and we have to protect our PRsssss

[ketchup777]

Tracker + doctor setup sounds fun imagine if we had that

[ketchup777]

I look forward to Purplemango‘s answer to my 1751 (and to hem‘s 1750…). Might finally help us to sort that slot

[ketchup777]

1753 fake E-1 for the lolsies

[ketchup777]

this day is dragging why can’t we just vote out camel aaaaaah

[ketchup777]

1753 fake E-1 for the lolsies

Neither Mango nor hem took it. Didn’t really think they would but ah well nothing lost

[ketchup777]

The fact that they also didn’t point it out / comment on it could be +town for them both, recognising the trap and trying to leave it there for others. Maybe

[ketchup777]

hmm maybe ydrasse/flush‘s super long music interaction during RVS was SvS but that seems a bit too obvious

[ketchup777]

unlikely pairings:

Zach/Camel
Camel/Flush
Jackson/HEM
Jackson/Ydrasse
HEM/KJQ
Jackson/Flush
KJQ/Camel
Zach/Flush
KJQ/Jackson

oh yeah adding KJQ/Jackson cos like... their interactions have been way too natural and often to be partnered, methinks

93 further rules out KJQ/Camel, feels like a natural post from KJQ there

[ketchup777]

If camel flips scum, i think zach, flush and KJQ are town. probably Jackson as well but the other 3 based on interactions with camelslot I am most confident about


I could post this to main thread ^^

[ketchup777]

nah i might wait until we actually flip camel to post that

[ketchup777]

if we can flip camel

[ketchup777]

zzz

[ketchup777]

1766 from KJQ is not so suggestive of a PR. Yet it could be a clever bluff if she thinks her wagon will never actually go through. Idk

[ketchup777]

Yeah I think Zach/Ydrasse are lying low as our town PRs actually

[ketchup777]

Mango is still hard to read, could be disengaged VT or could be scum again (they have been scum 2/2 games so far apparently)

[ketchup777]

Me+KJQ are so town

[ketchup777]

jackson hopefully town, same with flush

[ketchup777]

so that leaves camel, hem, mango as likeliest scum

[ketchup777]

d1 hero solve camel+hem let’s gogogo

[ketchup777]

If we have a jailkeeper or tracker and lim scum day 1 they act as cops

[ketchup777]

woah

[ketchup777]

oh I guess not 100%

[ketchup777]

still, if you JK scummy players, likely

[ketchup777]

so if a scum gets limmed d1 and they suspect a jk they should nk the most obviously scummy player? hm

[ketchup777]

thats fun

[ketchup777]

do i effort post to the notes pt today and hope I don’t get nked?

[ketchup777]

nah let’s wait it out

[ketchup777]

at some point I will create a who voted for who day 1 thing

[ketchup777]

will be more helpful after seeing 2 flips tho and also I will only have to do it for 7 players instead of 9 or maybe 8 with camel if camel is scum

[ketchup777]

dann absolutely sniping the pagemiddle with VC 1.19

[ketchup777]

nvm I can’t count

[ketchup777]

thought it started from 70 for a sec ):