Open 744 - Town Lover

[yessiree]

Hello, Mcqueen and Michael Scott. You are members of the town, and lovers with each other. If anyone of you die, the other dies as well. The two of you may talk prior to the beginning of Day 1.

[Michael Scott]

Hello! Mod, one small request -- would you be able to send any PMs individually to both our heads?

[Michael Scott]

Is this game breakable? Massclaim D1, scum would have to claim a lover pair and a VT.
We have 3 sets of lovers now, and 3 VTs.
Lynch one VT randomly, and if we don't win, one lover pair.
EV: 1/3 + (2/3)*(1/3) + (2/3)*(2/3)*EV(2 Lover pairs, 2 VTs where one Lover pair and one VT are scum) = 5/9 + EV(2LoverPairs+2VTs)
EV(2LoverPairs+2VTs), lynch a VT at random: 1/2

So original EV = 5/9 + (4/9)*(1/2) = 7/9, incredibly townsided, no?
So unless there's some sorta mistake, let's just propose this?

[Michael Scott]

If scum claims all VTs, we have all lovers cleared, and 3 scum VTs out of 5. Pick two and lynch.
EV: (3/5) + (2/5)*(3/4) = (3/5)+(3/10) = 9/10, so scum would prefer not to do this.

[yessiree]

Hello! Mod, one small request -- would you be able to send any PMs individually to both our heads?

sure

[Michael Scott]

And FMPOV if we aren't the lynch, EV becomes 1/3+1/3+1/6, which is 5/6, even better.

[Michael Scott]

Ah nevermind. Lynch a lover and a VT and we have equal numbers of Maf and town, @mod what happens then? Is it a Mafia win?

[Michael Scott]

This literally means we can afford only one mislynch overall. Lynch a VT and then a TL, game over. Lynch a VT and then another, game over.

[Michael Scott]

Eh in that case, massclaim and 1 VT out of the three is scum, just lynch two of them. 66% EV *shrug*

[yessiree]

Ah nevermind. Lynch a lover and a VT and we have equal numbers of Maf and town, @mod what happens then? Is it a Mafia win?

mafia wins ties in nightless setups

[Michael Scott]

Yep, then speed massclaim and pick a VT to not lynch, wins 2/3 of the time, ez

[Michael Scott]

@mod, I want to make sure my understanding of this setup is correct. Regarding lovers being lynched, if one member of a pair of town lovers gets lynched, then we CANNOT afford for either member of the other pair of town lovers to be lynched, correct? For example, if A and B are town lovers, and C and D are town lovers, it's OK for A and B to both get lynched, but if for example A gets lynched and then D gets lynched, Mafia automatically wins the game. Is this correct?

If so, then that means town can afford up to two mislynches, and loses on the third mislynch, as long as we have the right combination of mislynches.

For example:

mislynch 1: town VT
mislynch 2: player A (member of A-B town lovers pair)

or

mislynch 1: Player A
mislynch 2: Player B (both town lovers from the same pair, which is OK?)

And so on and so forth.

If my understanding is correct, neither of the above situations would lead to a town loss. A third mislynch would automatically guarantee a town loss as Mafia would have equal numbers with town.

Of course there are situations which would lead to a town loss upon a second mislynch, such as:

mislynch 1: town VT
mislynch 2: town VT (both VT's have been lynched)

or

mislynch 1: Player A
mislynch 2: Player C (they are both lovers but not from the same pair, so NOT OK?)

- Date Mike

[Michael Scott]

@Mod: Can I hard claim Lovers and start a Massclaim pregame, or does that break the rules?

[yessiree]

Regarding the first question: you should read your role pm one more time

[Michael Scott]

Regarding the first question: you should read your role pm one more time

Ah, fair enough. I was looking over the mechanics, when I should have been looking at the role PM.

Yes, I see now. There is no way for town to have two mislynches and still win.

- Date Mike

[Michael Scott]

@Mod: Can I hard claim Lovers and start a Massclaim pregame, or does that break the rules?

Mod, please tell me if this is against the rules.

[Michael Scott]

Sorry for outing us, McQueen

Bambi's stupid fearmongering and reluctance could come from her town!her too, that's the frustrating part. Fully expected her to react this way in any case. Argh.

Lolwagons is very prolly town here, we just need to lynch the other two VT claims and done. Ez bois

[yessiree]

Forgot to lock this but lovers chat is pregame only

Locking