Micro 845: Room - Nancy Drew 39, Plotinus

[BNL]

Welcome,

Nancy Drew 39

and

Plotinus

!

[Plotinus]

Hi Nancy!

[Nancy Drew 39]

Hi Nancy!

Hey.

[Nancy Drew 39]

These are my current reads:

Me, Flavor, you, SS, Dunn/Clem, Persivul.

So, Persivul is my strongest scumread and one of I think Dunn/Clem is his partner.

[Nancy Drew 39]

I just broke my post restriction.

[Nancy Drew 39]

These are my current reads:

Me, Flavor, you, SS, Dunn/Clem, Persivul.

So, Persivul is my strongest scumread and one of I think Dunn/Clem is his partner.

Flavor, Dunn, you, SS/Clem, Persivul.

[Plotinus]

Post restrictions are hard to remember!

[Nancy Drew 39]

Post restrictions are hard to remember!

Yeah, especially when you’re not used to this setup.


So, what are your current reads?

[Plotinus]

Our reads are pretty similar.

I feel pretty good about you, flavour, and SS.

I did like Dunn breaking out the math recently.

[Plotinus]

My strongest scumread basically keeps cycling between Dunn/Persivul/Clemency lately. I've felt a little bit better about Persivul this dayphase, but today with Dunn's math is the first time I could see where he was coming from basically all game.

[Plotinus]

Here's a chart of the current living players. It's based on the one in the OP of the main thread but updated based on flips

	Dunnstral	Plotinus	Clemency	Persivul	Ruby	Something_Smart	Flavor Leaf	Total	Percentage
Dunnstral	X	2	6	3	6	1	8	26	23.6%
Plotinus		X	10	6	2	9	4	33	30.0%
Clemency			X	5	7	3	2	33	30.0%
Persivul				X	4	1	7	26	23.6%
Ruby					X	7	8	34	30.9%
Something_Smart						X	9	30	27.3%
Flavor Leaf							X	38	34.5%

[Nancy Drew 39]

Our reads are pretty similar.

I feel pretty good about you, flavour, and SS.

I did like Dunn breaking out the math recently.

I am the most confident on Persivul being scum here.

Clem mindmelding with me on Flavor and you, makes me less inclined to vote him today.

I don’t know why SS thinks he’s (Persivul) is being townie at all.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Here's a chart of the current living players. It's based on the one in the OP of the main thread but updated based on flips

	Dunnstral	Plotinus	Clemency	Persivul	Ruby	Something_Smart	Flavor Leaf	Total	Percentage
Dunnstral	X	2	6	3	6	1	8	26	23.6%
Plotinus		X	10	6	2	9	4	33	30.0%
Clemency			X	5	7	3	2	33	30.0%
Persivul				X	4	1	7	26	23.6%
Ruby					X	7	8	34	30.9%
Something_Smart						X	9	30	27.3%
Flavor Leaf							X	38	34.5%

What do all of these numbers mean?

[Plotinus]

Setup-specific Rules

1. This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.
   
2. The probability of each player being scum is not uniformly random. Instead, the probability of each pair of players being the scumteam follows this probability table:
   

   	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	Total
   A	X	1	2	6	9	3	6	1	8	36
   B		X	3	2	7	9	7	5	3	37
   C			X	10	2	6	2	9	4	38
   D				X	4	5	7	3	2	39
   E					X	6	1	8	3	40
   F						X	4	1	7	41
   G							X	7	8	42
   H								X	9	43
   I									X	44

   
   Refer to the player list to see which player each row/column represents.
   
3. The scumteam is first randomized according to the above table. The deflector is then chosen uniformly randomly among the remaining townies.
   
4. The Mafia kill is compulsive. In addition, they must kill a town aligned player; they may not attempt to target themselves.
   
5. Lynching is compulsive. If no lynch is achieved by deadline, plurality will take effect, and the Deflector will be roleblocked. See “Voting” for more details.

[Nancy Drew 39]

My strongest scumread basically keeps cycling between Dunn/Persivul/Clemency lately. I've felt a little bit better about Persivul this dayphase, but today with Dunn's math is the first time I could see where he was coming from basically all game.

Well, considering scum being onwagon in this setup, would make Persivul a better lynch today than Clem but I’m not opposed to it either but I feel pretty good about Dunn being town.

Dunn is either deflector or trying to draw out the NK, something that rarely comes from scum.

[Plotinus]

So, basically, that's the chance that each player is scum with another player. Dunnstral and I have 2 in 110 chance of being scum together. Dunnstral and Clemency have a 6 in 110 chance of being scum together, and so on down the chart. Dunnstral's total chance of being scum is 23.6%

[Plotinus]

My biggest problem with Clemency is that he hasn't been here. Do you know Clemency particularly well?

[Plotinus]

Another thing about this setup that I'm not sure you noticed: we have plurality lynches. If we plurality lynch, then the deflector doesn't get to use their action. Because of that, I think Something smart's hammer is pretty town because he could've just lurked out the deadline instead.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Setup-specific Rules

1. This is an open setup: there are 2 Mafia Goons, 6 Vanilla Townies, and 1 Town Deflector.
   
2. The probability of each player being scum is not uniformly random. Instead, the probability of each pair of players being the scumteam follows this probability table:
   

   	A	B	C	D	E	F	G	H	I	Total
   A	X	1	2	6	9	3	6	1	8	36
   B		X	3	2	7	9	7	5	3	37
   C			X	10	2	6	2	9	4	38
   D				X	4	5	7	3	2	39
   E					X	6	1	8	3	40
   F						X	4	1	7	41
   G							X	7	8	42
   H								X	9	43
   I									X	44

   
   Refer to the player list to see which player each row/column represents.
   
3. The scumteam is first randomized according to the above table. The deflector is then chosen uniformly randomly among the remaining townies.
   
4. The Mafia kill is compulsive. In addition, they must kill a town aligned player; they may not attempt to target themselves.
   
5. Lynching is compulsive. If no lynch is achieved by deadline, plurality will take effect, and the Deflector will be roleblocked. See “Voting” for more details.

This graph just confuses the hell out of me, sorry.

But I think we should try to get a maj, so that the deflector isn’t blocked.

I’m just picking up scum vibes from Persivul. His angry posts, just seem overreactive and over the top and if you assume mechanically that at least one scum has to be on Gamma wagon and it’s not Dunn or SS, than who else could it be than Persivul, right?

[Nancy Drew 39]

My biggest problem with Clemency is that he hasn't been here. Do you know Clemency particularly well?

He was scum in OK 2 but other than that I don’t know. He hasn’t done anything particularly townie but he doesn’t seem scummy like he did in that game either. He could still be scum though.

It’s also possible that scum are employing a contrasting reads play on Flavor but his (Persivul’s tunnel on Flavor - I’m just not totally buying.

Also, him linking me to posts I made yesterday wrt to my VCA theory, once again struck me as being over the top.

Like he’s acting like he’s somehow debunking my case, when he is in fact, validating it.

[Plotinus]

Have you read the game in order, or just in ISO?

Some of persivul's angry posts were him quoting other games in which he had made angry posts as town to defend himself when i commented that he was being a jerk and he's usually more of a jerk as scum.

[Plotinus]

I made a spreadsheet because I think it'll be easier to understand that the bbcode table. Green means that two people are less likely to be scum together. Red means they are more likely to be scum together.

[Nancy Drew 39]

Have you read the game in order, or just in ISO?

Some of persivul's angry posts were him quoting other games in which he had made angry posts as town to defend himself when i commented that he was being a jerk and he's usually more of a jerk as scum.

Oh, yeah mostly in ISO. It’s definitely harder to be a replacement, which is why I don’t do it often.

[Plotinus]

Well you've brought life into this game, which helps a lot

[Nancy Drew 39]

I made a spreadsheet because I think it'll be easier to understand that the bbcode table. Green means that two people are less likely to be scum together. Red means they are more likely to be scum together.

Can you explain what this means?

Like just tell me which pairs are the most likely to be teammates and why?