Echo Bay Grits SEO dead thread

[MagnaofIllusion]

Hey unsurprised to be here. I've read none of this and only the flips. Happy I was dead on in Taly. I have a two page write-up that I will post in here when I get access to my laptop Monday but for now the summary of my reads.

Town - Vax, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma. A bit surprised Vax isn't here.

Top scum -

Theta (Munitions), Tora (Munitions), Taly (Grits)

Second Tier Scum -

The Worst (Munitions BP Traitor), Winged (not sure), Austerity (only if Winged is scum), Davsto (read as Munitions but only if WCG is Town)

Null - Stefan and TheBrie

I'm happy so far with my reads based on results. Will now read the thread to see if any spoilers are about.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna's going to see this and just cry

and probably use his shot on my corpse

NUKE: Ank

Bad Ank ... you should have known better ... you waste early LOLshots on players like NotMafia, Snarky and WCG.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Honestly, I would've shot Lovebird if I wasn't dead tired doing that.

It didn't hit me how scummy those posts were until the next day.

Maybe. I'll take my chances with my read on Love over yours given I was 2/4 so far on scum in my "from the hip" calls.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Magna

It is very rare that I get scumreads

this

strong, to the point where it's impossible to change my mind on them.

They're

yet

to be wrong.

I think you are calling Love scum for the same reason you called me scum like 2 pages ago ... for pointing out things like Taly being scum and the PRICKS was riddled with scum.

Which means unless you can give a better reason than that ... I don't trust it.

[MagnaofIllusion]

You mean like looking for a somewhat town excuse to use their shot, then floating around doing nothing but occasionally giving essentially nothing reads until they get called out, then trying very hard to shut that down while still doing nothing of consequence?

Meh. We will see. That sort applies to like half the remaining players. I mean ... who left has done anything remotely Townish besides Vax?

I mean I like Gamma and think he's Town but I could see his play as experienced "Keep out of the limelight" scum and his contributions are not great.

[MagnaofIllusion]

<3 do u still love me moi????

Sorry I don't know you so kinda hard to have ever loved you ...

Nothing personal I'm just a "Only love people you actually know" kinda guy

[MagnaofIllusion]

Don't worry Taly, MoI can't like you less than he likes me

I'd like you a lot more if you hadn't LOLSHOT Gork

[MagnaofIllusion]

person shot	alignment	shooter	shooter alignment
Ramcius	Citizen	Eddie Cane	Citizen
Aristophane	Citizen	CheekyTeeky	Citizen
CheekyTeeky	Citizen	Srceenplay	Citizen (1sbp)
Gorkington	Citizen	Ankamius	Citizen
Ankamius	Citizen	Lovebird	???
Nexus	Citizen	Hyung	Citizen
hyung	Citizen	MagnaofIllusion	???
Varsoon	Citizen	McMenno	Citizen
McMenno	Citizen	Varsoon	Citizen
Harambey180	Citizen	Gammagooey	???
Eddie Cane	Citizen	Momrangal	Citizen (1sbp)
Kokichi Oma	Citizen	Sando	???
SnarkySnowman	1 bp used	Vaxkiller	???
SnarkySnowman	Grits traitor (1sbp)	Ausuka	???
Momrangal	1 bp used	Davsto	Citizen (1sbp)
ooba	Citizen	Almost50	Citizen
Almost50	Citizen	Chickadee	Citizen
Srceenplay	1 bp used	Taly	???
Bins	Citizen	Not_Mafia	Munitions Co. goon
Creature	Citizen	Hebichan	Citizen
Hebichan	Citizen	Theta Alpine	???
Not_Mafia	Munitions Co. goon	light_ganski	???
Sando	Citizen	Nero Cain	Citizen
Nero Cain	Citizen	the worst	???
randomidget	1 bp used	Austerity	???
Srceenplay	Citizen (1sbp)	Iconeum	???
Momrangal	Citizen (1sbp)	randomidget	Citizen (1sbp)
Chickadee	Citizen	Brie	???
randomidget	Citizen (1sbp)	Toranaga	???

Personally I think the best evidence for Love and Gamma Town are the timing of their shots ... Sando was dead correct that scum have more of a reason NOT to shoot early.

[MagnaofIllusion]

btw does the worst actually believe this

3 scumteams is actually better for town than two

I hope not. Flavor has me leaning for either a SK or a Vig.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Everyone familiar with me in that game townread me, so kudos. X3

Well if you were a scum player who can't play with a Pro-Town appearance when scum you would have been dead by like Page 10 LOL.

Upon replacing in I was about 75% sure I was correct. The two things that killed you for me were.

1. The "Why Me" response to Gamma's case. That sort of defense was a bit overwrought IMO.
2. The way you used your shot. It is the same reason Theta is my top pick for scum still alive. You both took stances in thread as PRICKS about proper shooting and then made shots that were pretty inconsistent with those positions.

The Ico flips pushed me to 99.5% since you had spent WAY too much time calling him scum but not shooting him and arguing against his end of day shot.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lol Ank. If Love is Town I'm going to strongly suggest you add

"No, Ank definitely has bad reads." - MoI

to your sig

[MagnaofIllusion]

ITDT Ank and MOI have diametrically opposed reads.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Still sitting on the laptop. I frankly haven’t been motivated to actually retrieve it given I posted my reads and no one seemed interested. Probably will get around to posting tonight or more likely tomorrow.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Btw it is pretty telling that nobody is even bothering to look at NKed Town’s reads .

[MagnaofIllusion]

So in the box is what I had prepared for post night. Nothing altered. The only changes I would make to living players would probably be that theWorst is likely SK not Munitions Traitor.

Let me start by saying this is all done before Nightfall is over. Any changes to reads based on deaths overnight will come after a clear break.

First I’ll go into some very general thoughts. My theory on PRICKS still absolutely holds. With an Ico scum flip I think there are likely at least 1-2 more scum in there and at least one Munitions scum.

Sando made a very good point early on at 241. I think scum are more likely to hold their shots early Day 1 of this game. The wild and wooly early game got a number of Town killed for from the hip shots and scum have incentive to NOT have that happen when so many bullets out there. Which also dovetails into why PRICKS was attractive to scum … it gave them a reason to hold their shots and a protection. 1226 I think supports this theory as I’m Town reading most of the unflipped early shots at this stage.

Also I disagree completely with anyone who pushes “Player X shot non-Traitor scum, they were bussing”. In a multi-scum game it doesn’t pay to bus with Daykills as the inherent Town cred for that kill just makes you a target for being killed at Night.

So let’s filter my reads right now.

Vaxkiller, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma are what I would call Townreads. During my read-though I noticed with each that as the game progressed they made posts and observations that aligned with my thoughts at that stage. In a couple of occasions I found myself thinking “I just wrote that in my notes”. Gamma is probably the weakest as I read through I was completely backwards in assessments about NotMafia partners (I think Taly is much more likely to be Grits due to massive Ico links) but I had the advantage of hindsight so it wasn’t enough to deter me from putting him in my Town right now.

Now let’s talk my top scum reads first.

Theta I think is very, VERY likely to be scum and a great NotMafia partner candidate. 319 looks like a “Hey, look I’m positing singleball it shows I’m not scum” post to me. 789 very much looks like a Beetlejuice post to me. He had just been called out for having little content among the PRICKS (think it was TheBrie but forgot to jot down who specifically in my notes) and pops in with a IIoA post that looks great on the surface but in the game at that point is unwieldy and isn’t helpful to actually finding scum. If anything it just is a way for scum to figure out who Town would shoot and aim away from them at Night. I also think his shot on Hebi is scum motivated. Look at his reads list and see where Hebi was residing as opposed to NotMafia. He postured about NotMafia but knee-jerked a shot on Hebi for “Oh my god he killed Creature” which was an absolutely safe shot on a “not partner” given the general feelings about Creature being Town. Lastly I think his 1132 is scum indicative and links him to Arch / Tora – he’s calling the best shots two low content posters (who I know are both Town) but completely ignored Tora’s slot.

Tora likewise I think is scum and has links to Theta that make me think partner. Firstly both slots have very, very scummy entrance posts that look like trying to “Jungle Town” tell. Before his shot he mentions that Theta looks scummy but ends up shooting Town instead of his scum read. He mentions Random not an iota before that shot. And then goes back to distancing from Theta. And his ISO is filled with active lurking with very little content.

If either on flips non-Traitor Munitions the other should be ventilated ASAP.

Now on the Grits side I think Taly fits that bill to a tee. His ISO is filled with posts that link him to Ico. 250 is an example … he’s bemoaning that Varsoon might have an actual reason to suspect Ico but doesn’t re-read or do anything with it. Soft distancing in my mind. And his repeated waffling on “Oh I think Ico is scum but I want a case” near the end of day is indicative of not wanting to be caught not suspecting Ico but not wanting to encourage Ico’s death. 851 I see as further distancing as Ico was a supposed top shot but that evaporated later. 1297 I think also is a link to Ico.

Likewise I think 570 points to not being a NotMafia partner and I don’t see my Munitions read in Theta being aligned with him either based on 1251.

So those would be my top shots.

Who else is in my scum pool but not as strongly?

Winged I still suspect for all the reasons I articulated before – too much “Mother May I?” posting regarding using her shot and no attempt to parse anyone’s alignment. I think I boxed her in with my call-out about her scum-claiming that meant she needed to shoot Ico to have a chance at surviving Day 2. I acknowledge she could just maybe be lazy and bad Town which is why she isn’t in my Top scum picks but it would be a long way for me to actually Town read her.

Austerity is a tough nugget for me. I want to Townread her on the strength of 434 and a few others but her strong Town read on WCG completely throws me. I don’t see any reason to near lock-town that slot. A WCG scum flip would catapult her into the top of my scum reads but Winged being Town would move her to weak Town.

theWorst actually reads to me as a solid candidate for BP Munitions Traitor. 981 I have trouble Town reading due to the multiple Town BP flips and the fact that no-one seemed to pay attention to his not having a followup shot. If there is a missing Nightkill tonight I would completely suggest he was recruited. 969 looks like a “Jungle Town” tell attempt and I really can’t see Town who posted all these players in 1000 he had lots of experience with then saying he had trouble getting reads. 373 is a bit of Cogdis and thus triggers me as well. And I see 1154 as scum motivated posting.

Davsto rounds out my mid scum reads. Despite his insistence that he had good reasons for scum reading Mom there is way too much focus on a single slot for my tastes from him. I see links to Taly at 729 and 964. I think 1058 is more likely to come from a scum perspective than Town (although it could be Town) and dislike how he’s arguing both sides of the same coin by saying “Mom was scummy for having a bad case on me” and “Just because I was wrong doesn’t mean I’m scum”. 1148 to me points to him being Munitions IF Winged is Town.

That leaves Stefan and TheBrie in my “Null” pile. Not enough seen indicative of alignment to me on either side of the coin by the end of Day 1.

[MagnaofIllusion]

And here's my current post Day 1 score-card ...

Town - Vax, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma
Null - Stefan and

TheBrie

Weak Scum - The Worst, Winged, Austerity, Davsto
Strong Scum - Theta,

Tora

,

Taly

[MagnaofIllusion]

Lol aww, I'm considered strong scum even in the dead thread.

That was written before Night ended. I'm not going to change it just because some scum took a good shot and validated my read

[MagnaofIllusion]

Updating for recent shots ... glad I was correct for the wrong reason on Austerity

Town - Vax, Lovebird, Ausuka, Light and Gamma
Null - Stefan and

TheBrie

Weak Scum - The Worst,

Winged

,

Austerity

, Davsto
Strong Scum -

Theta

,

Tora

,

Taly

Also my response to Austerity shooting me ...

[MagnaofIllusion]

If the Worst isn't scum / SK then they are the worst (irony, amirite) at convincing anyone with the whole "Every scum shoots me" stuff junking up the thread.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Thanks for letting me know Gamma isn't Munitions and thus only possible scum as the SK Theta!

[MagnaofIllusion]

Why isn’t anybody shooting theWorst? With Grits almost certainly gone getting rid of the SK is top priority

[MagnaofIllusion]

there's probably 1 or 2 more grits

If there are any Grits left the game is waaay to scum sided. When scum have both a factional NK and Daykills standard proportions are not appropriate.

[MagnaofIllusion]

Updating for Day 3 and recent shots...

Town -

Vax

,

Lovebird

,

Ausuka

, Light and Gamma
Null -

Stefan

and

TheBrie

Weak Scum -

The Worst

,

Winged

,

Austerity

, Davsto
Strong Scum -

Theta

,

Tora

,

Taly

Oh look - surprise Love was Town Ank ...

you should update that sig