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Post #21 (isolation #0) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:55 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
In post 9, Isis wrote:but at the same time
"it makes essentially no sense to have bussed as vengeful chara"
I have to agree with that being a weak play that reduces my sympathy towards the scumteam
it was a bad decision. i thought it was a good play for the associations it'd produce and the fact that it was obviously a play no one would consider. i didn't expect my whole team to lurk out on me. but it's ultimately my mistake, doesn't matter how town read i am if i screw up the basic strategy like that.
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Post #22 (isolation #1) » Sat Oct 03, 2020 4:57 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
In post 20, Isis wrote:I'm doing lots of schaudenfreude laughing right now, with all this deadline scrambling. It's great.
if i had remembered that rule i would have played the tip-off different for sure, i would have built a second wagon competitor instead of canvassing to have my vote for the hammer
oh well!
what's the meme line? thanks for hosting, thanks everyone for playing, and i'll remember you all in therapy
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Post #26 (isolation #2) » Mon Oct 05, 2020 7:01 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
Spare is mechanically near-useleas now, because town can only go toward neutral path. spared players won't produce any clears b/c the autowin condition can't apply since there is only 1 scum left. practical effect of sparing is to reduce the number of cop.checks mafia has to perform. Those spared players will all get dumped back into the thread anyways w/o really affecting kills
Game is probably lost anyways, I don't think I could have made enough wifom for the last scum to survive basically 6 fights needed here, but town may consider how much my end of day was scripted and with who
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Post #36 (isolation #5) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:36 pm
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
Night 4 gets skipped, so if everyone always killed you'd have at daystart: 12 -> 10 -> 8 -. 6 -> 5. 5 on day 4 with 2 town being cleared because how genocide plays out. With one no kill, you get 6 on day 4 with only 2 clears, which is much better than 2/5. town doesn't get an extra fight for it
game state wise, i think i would have pushed the no kill back to night 3, i think it would have been better to take a little control and not spill the no kill just yet.
i also made the decision that a shot at autowin was better than playing the game out to conclusion, which seemed an almost certain loss anyways. if isis hadn't been so quick on locking the thread there were ways i could have implicated whoever was going to hammer
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Post #37 (isolation #6) » Tue Oct 06, 2020 12:37 pm
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
In post 36, CantHateAPuppy wrote:Night 4 gets skipped, so if everyone always killed you'd have at daystart: 12 -> 10 -> 8 -. 6 -> 5. 5 on day 4 with 2 town being cleared because how genocide plays out. With one no kill, you get 6 on day 4 with only 2 clears, which is much better than 2/5. town doesn't get an extra fight for it
game state wise, i think i would have pushed the no kill back to night 3, i think it would have been better to take a little control and not spill the no kill just yet.
i also made the decision that a shot at autowin was better than playing the game out to conclusion, which seemed an almost certain loss anyways. if isis hadn't been so quick on locking the thread there were ways i could have implicated whoever was going to hammer
or, at least, added more wifom so the hammer didn't seemingly spew clears
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Post #40 (isolation #8) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 1:54 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
still think scum loses, the hole were in is too deep. but if there were a scum path to win, i think it'd look like this:
1) waste a few days on vanity fights that don't advance game state
2) after a few bad fights, town gets super paranoid and starts lynching obvtown slots
3) scum makes it to lylo and plays well
1) is looking pretty good right now. think I played poorly overall, but I feel good about the way my interactions stirred up town enough today. since ISIS hasn't spoiled I won't ekther, but I feel like most of what they're reading from my ISO is what I wanted them to read (Irving Goffman, front stage back stage)
2) is probably unlikely, but the only way past this step is if the cop-check mechanic doesn't put town on or close to autowin. that means no kills so the fight pool is bigger. town needs to go full paranoia to lose here, and the paranoia play is always to keep alive towns strongest townreads (strong town players often turn on each other, and are so used to being killed that they often make mistakes when allowed to live)
Theast scum shouldn't make it to 3) just on odds alone. but I think the last scum is playing well enough rn to at least give it a shot
this game was probably always a town win the moment scum flipped day 1, we can figure out whether because scum went inactive or because I bussed too aggressively and it's my fault. its probably my fault. but this has been a pretty fun town and a pretty fun game overall, which makes it more interesting to game out the scum path to victory even though we should lose this 9/10 times at least
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Post #41 (isolation #9) » Fri Oct 09, 2020 7:38 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
Otoh I feel bad about screwing the pooch on this game and want it to be over so my folly can be over and we can all move on
Otoh a scum win would be the coolest most improbable come from behind victory and it's fun to imagine one the longer the game goes on. sorry I left it for the last scum to work through lmao
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Post #45 (isolation #10) » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:57 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
town's current strategy of reading the ele/beeboy wagon is better than their last one of trying to figure out who i was sliming by association, if they just follow that strat and don't get paranoid town should win in about 3 fights without trying
game will probably get to the cop check stage the way it's going, but i would be surprised if scum got much farther. a scum win would take scum playing well (which is happening) and town making big mistakes (probably not)
right now i think the play would be to cop clear the most suspicious players, and get town really paranoid so they have to re-evaluate some clears and would make those mistakes.. but it could change depending on who makes it that far and how. i could give more thoughts whenever isis decides to spoil the thread
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Post #46 (isolation #11) » Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:02 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
gotta say it's immense fun just watching people spec on my motivations for different posts, 95% wrong, the most right guess was some of the spec about why i "had" to bus beeboy day 1. almost everything else was just deliberately sliming some associations to make people paranoid. dont think it changes the game outcome, but its gratifying on a personal level
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Post #51 (isolation #12) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:34 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
imo when towns have a few mislaunches they should just pick a consistent strategy and work down the list. towns get into trouble when they have too many theories and never commit to any, because this keeps scum options open
So like, if the theory is "puppy didn't want to bus beeboy," they should fight everyone who tried to stop that fight. or if they're more worried about how day 2 ended, they should knock out a few players who look really bad there. but if they fight someone from the first group, and later someone from the second group, they'll be two fights down and still no clearer picture of what really happened for either question
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Post #52 (isolation #13) » Mon Oct 12, 2020 1:38 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
Most games have a "central mystery," you can try to solve, usually it's just how the day 1 lynch happened. if you have good town trust you can brite force the launches to solve that mystery and generally have better than random odds to win outright
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Post #58 (isolation #15) » Tue Oct 13, 2020 3:31 pm
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
gut feeling here is these subs are bad for town because they remove a significant anchor in the game. otoh it's possible the shake-up will convince town to find the right answer a little sooner
actually remarkable the game has gone this long without subs except in the one slot
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Post #63 (isolation #17) » Thu Oct 15, 2020 4:22 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
i think the math works better with a nokill, that was the whole point of the first nokill
but based on game state, the nokill is framing a few players and no killing again makes it look like a deliberate scum ploy which would probably help town figure it out. so i'd kill here
Deadline scrambles make weird things happen (.﹒︣︿﹒︣.)
there's definitely a wifom quotient now with the way day 1 played out / scum played overall. iwon't even blame town for it since i tried to encourage it. but imo the "no way puppy switches from elements to hectic" argument was very strong and not taking it is a big mistake
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Post #71 (isolation #20) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:13 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
In post 69, Hectic wrote:Hey! I'm glad you joined, you played well. I bet it's been fun to watch everyone deeply examine your every word over and over again lol
lmao thanks. worst scum game in a long time, tactics were fine but the strategy got wrecked.
fwiw my plan was just to flip and have people go "oh, this can't be the scumteam because look at those puppy associations". not to be like the deep town master wolf october surprise lolwut flip that would cripple half the game with alcoholism
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Post #72 (isolation #21) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 7:16 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
In post 70, Isis wrote:Krazy said to tell Hectic and Puppy that he loves them
taking this as an ok to spill some things
the no kill was my suggestion. I got the math wrong, but i argued in scum thread it was worth it even if it added an extra lynch. basically it reduces the power of the cop clears that scum has to give (more uncleared players) and will also make town extremely paranoid (which needs to happen for scum to win)
know its unconventional and looks bad from a standard maf view, no reviewer would ever say "yeah great decision," but for that reason I find it works 7/10 times
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Post #75 (isolation #22) » Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:58 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
damn there's a discord/ no wonder I haven't been getting my letters from isis
So yeah that's the secret, I thought id do some light bussing for credit on my flip, both scummates subbed out and I couldn't get traction so light bussing had to become hard bussing
can answer any Q's but full receipts are in the scum PT and at this point it's be. narcissistic to keep talking much more
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Post #82 (isolation #23) » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:11 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
If town just thinks " scum bussed day 1 because both partners were afk," it's game over
so making weird kills helps.
Also I think i had to vote krazy day 2 like that, it was autoloss if he got voted off, but if i didn't join that wagon my flip would have made it obvious and lost the game anyways. tanner was right about the way I voted. i figured by pushing there i could join the case but actually make it harder to hammer by not really pushing the case. town got spooked by the early l-1 and so dragged the day out. often find the easiest way to get town to not do something is to... argue they should do that something, but in a really poor way
so yeah, the day 1 bus, the day 2 krazy vote, and the no kill are probably my biggest contributions to the game, and they were all "mistakes". all the rest of the stuff about building some good associations day 2 and making people paranoid on flip was just a cope
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Post #113 (isolation #28) » Mon Oct 26, 2020 5:13 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
alisae is probably going to win this game for town by:
1) occupying the town prism slot and not scumming it up
2) refusing to play reread wifom analysis and just working off town reads
MT gets an significant contribution ofc for being obvtown enough that krazy can't push the slot
alisae slot would have been much more lynch able if prism hadn't subbed out, b/c the paranoia would have been really different, people would have been willing to bieve in a deep scum game like they can't now
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Post #123 (isolation #30) » Tue Oct 27, 2020 4:14 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
another sub lmao
one thing i hadn't considered before I'd that when a sub comes in, they won't read the whole game and only look for bullet points. I think combined krazy and i made some moves that look good with that, my l-2 on early d2, the no kills, krazy's tanner clear, the weird way day 1 panned out (ok this one was unintentional and a def mistake)
town should still win, but it's pretty close atm imo
genuinely think the 2 spares path was better for town after scum flipped
everyone assumed I was trying to get myself spared, but the plan was to get someone else spared first. once town was committed to 1 spare they'd be committed to 2
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Post #152 (isolation #36) » Thu Oct 29, 2020 5:14 pm
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
This was probably my last game on this account for a while anyways, I haven't joined any new games and the stress is high. the last 4 games I played on this account we're all intended as my last one but I kept getting invited to new games and I wanted to roll scum
not doing a dramatic "never again" but if I come up with a new gimmick or want to do this one again I might
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Post #182 (isolation #40) » Sun Nov 01, 2020 9:47 am
Postby CantHateAPuppy »
interesting strat for the worst to commit to not reading the game. definitel left enough material to work with in notes in the scum PT, and krazy made a good effort, so assume the worst feels this is the best strat rather than pretending to do a blind read and dredging up old arguments