House of the Dragon Spec Chat

[Thestatusquo]

I’m shocked shea was town. Like this should have been done a long time ago.

Not going to get into it with you about this but it was incredibly obvious to literally everyone but you that I was town so maybe this should be a moment of reflection for you.

And I'll take that apology for trying to say I was scum because I took time to submit an action while also living my normal day to day life which was verifiable at any point.

And that's all I have to say on that subject.

[Thestatusquo]

This is a scum claim from the council.

[Thestatusquo]

Only other way would be GL deep wolf and this is a setup on Mastina, but I find that very unlikely

I think its titus for sure and GL/Mastina for the second.

[Thestatusquo]

Like you decided your reads were better than everyone else’s and saved scum

That’s a policy

Literally thats the role I had. And I used it.

Nothing wrong with that.

I shot the wrong person though for sure.

[Thestatusquo]

It’s no different than if I was a vig and shot twice wrong. Then I take responsibility and am flipped because more likely than not I am scum.

It’s accountability.

Seems like you could take accountability for just being completely wrong about almost everything.

Anyway, done with this conversation.

[Thestatusquo]

She'll learn about it in a couple days when she goes to do her catchup.

[Thestatusquo]

pretty sure doc can't heal self.

[Thestatusquo]

If fb is scum this is a weird sac.

Would make sense only in a world where neither titus or mastina is scum I think.

[Thestatusquo]

fb gets a lot of credit if scum for open wolfing this game and getting away with it if he's scum.

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah I agree with that analysis but this play is incredibly weird for FB as scum unless the other scum is incredibly deep wolf.

[Thestatusquo]

I think FB has been incredibly sus with basically everything he's been doing with the gold personally.

But the convo between him and datisi in the small council thread right before datisi flipped didn't feel aligned to me at all.

[Thestatusquo]

It's pretty hard for me to see a world where titus isnt scum, and I think this play is basically inting if fb and titus is the scum pairing.

[Thestatusquo]

He doesnt have to send gold to himself. He just has the gold.

[Thestatusquo]

Who does FB think mastina's partner is with that vote count?

[Thestatusquo]

I also know that pooky always pings me to remind me.

I'm starting to agree with you.

[Thestatusquo]

And how did the Scum know to shoot the Cop? If the Doc is funded (which presumably the Scum wouldn’t know whether they were or weren’t if Firebringer is Town), they shoot the Doctor.

Firebringer said this about the funding in the small council thread last night.

[Thestatusquo]

[quote="In post 5220, Firebringer"

]I have a guilty on mastina.
she visited fireisredsir last night
she didn't have any gold

This supports mastina using a potion right?[/quote]

MASTINA. CANNOT. HAVE. USED. A POTION. MECHANICALLY.

[Thestatusquo]

the doc cannot self doc. Like, come on people.

[Thestatusquo]

I find GLs claim that he thought they would get two flips out of overthrowing to be extremely dubious also.

Did he really think that group was clean? I don't think that was a reasonable thing for him to think.

I'm starting to think its just GL-FB.

[Thestatusquo]

Like so far almost all my reads except Shea were correct

My current solve is Shea Firebringer Johnny + some
Or LLD + Unowen plus some not Shea

My death makes Shea scum incredibly likely

luhmow.

[Thestatusquo]

Like so far almost all my reads except Shea were correct

My current solve is Shea Firebringer Johnny + some
Or LLD + Unowen plus some not Shea

My death makes Shea scum incredibly likely

luhmow.

It just will blow my mind if all three of fire, dats, and mastina are town who all individually came to the decision that definitively aiming both protectives of the night in the council pt is a Good Plan, with none of them thinking maybe it should be done a little more subtly, just in case.

I think fire is the only scum in that mix

luhmow

[Thestatusquo]

Like so far almost all my reads except Shea were correct

My current solve is Shea Firebringer Johnny + some
Or LLD + Unowen plus some not Shea

My death makes Shea scum incredibly likely

luhmow.

It just will blow my mind if all three of fire, dats, and mastina are town who all individually came to the decision that definitively aiming both protectives of the night in the council pt is a Good Plan, with none of them thinking maybe it should be done a little more subtly, just in case.

I think fire is the only scum in that mix

luhmow

Yeah, I don't disagree. I cited a similar point in my datisi scum tinfoil case. I would love to see datisi, mastina and Titus all flip red.

I think they all flip town and it’s Fire and Shea.

luhmow.

[Thestatusquo]

Anyway, I think I agree with andres.

[Thestatusquo]

Though I still don't think this trade makes a ton of sense for scumbringer.

[Thestatusquo]

I'm annoyed at you and being an asshole.

I'll back off.

[Thestatusquo]

Gun to my head Andres is right and this flips green.

It doesnt make a lot of sense to me from FBs game state position as scum but a lot of things arent adding up.

[Thestatusquo]

Its just titus.

Last scum has to be on the kingsguard last night.

So {GL Titus Owen and LLD} is the complete PoE.

GL is town by play the last 2 days.

[Thestatusquo]

[Thestatusquo]

Given Titus tried to “duel” Mastina to prove her town I can buy it

I just don’t get FB town from play.

Could be Titus just didn’t log in? Don’t votes have to be unanimous?

Why would fb make this play as scum?

As scum you clearly just try to get a titus miselim and then try to get another miselim and then have mastina execute for the win.

Scum king is so ridiculously powerful right now theres no way you make that trade as fb.

[Thestatusquo]

Because then he “clears” himself. Then kills Roden and becomes king? Then GG
It gets king’s trust and sticks with the money.

If FB is scum and not in the money slot then he’s outed if anyone else is picked

Wait why would FB become king?

There's currently no heir.

[Thestatusquo]

I would almost feel bad for the scum team if they end up losing just because mastina was not able to log on in time to just instant execute

Feel like scums spot was pretty bad even if she does get one off.

[Thestatusquo]

Given Titus tried to “duel” Mastina to prove her town I can buy it

I just don’t get FB town from play.

Could be Titus just didn’t log in? Don’t votes have to be unanimous?

Of submitted votes. If a vote is not submitted at all, it doesn’t affect it. Dannflor “didn’t vote” one night so that was clarified before the decision was taken.

Oh then nm Titus is just scum

I just don’t get 90% of FB’s play as town

They were so scummy

I strongly agree that a lot of firebringers play was scum sided, but he was town when it counted.

[Thestatusquo]

Scum's spot has to be rancid to take any of these lines.

[Thestatusquo]

Subject: House of the Dragon - Day Six

Unowen has been named King of the Andals, The Rhoynar, and the First Men, Lord of the Seven Kingdoms and Protector of the Realm

Titus has been appointed Master of Laws

Unowen must appoint a Prince of Dragonstone and Grand Meister

Wait how

[Thestatusquo]

I think also as a group, we got lucky that we got a Town King, that picked Scum specifically for Cop, and I think had every other slot as Town, from what I can tell.

I put datisi as cop specifically because I wanted one of the group of {GL VPB and Datisi} to have a PR because they're too strong to completely ignore but I was paranoid of their town reads on each other and picked that person to be cop specifically to hedge against me picking the wrong one.

Pretty happy with my council picks. My reads were pretty good there.

[Thestatusquo]

I think also as a group, we got lucky that we got a Town King, that picked Scum specifically for Cop, and I think had every other slot as Town, from what I can tell.

I put datisi as cop specifically because I wanted one of the group of {GL VPB and Datisi} to have a PR because they're too strong to completely ignore but I was paranoid of their town reads on each other and picked that person to be cop specifically to hedge against me picking the wrong one.

Pretty happy with my council picks. My reads were pretty good there.

Yeah no you have my props. I’m also glad I supported you throughout and that makes me very happy. Like I had a few fundamentally correct reads even though my solve was awful. But reading you correctly and protecting you was honestly the part of my game I’m most happy about. And making myself obvious Town too.

Yeah I've never played with scum!you but if you can replicate this game as scum I would be utterly utterly shocked.

[Thestatusquo]

There’s something we are missing here.

Yeah the reads were pretty good.

Is it possible for Owen to be the last scum?

I think it is very possible.

I think its between Owen LLD and Titus with the likelihoods being Titus > Owen > LLD.

Like 70%-25%-5%?

[Thestatusquo]

Datisi I think you played really well this game.

[Thestatusquo]

@Mathblade I don’t know? I don’t know how the King was selected. I also just really think this is in auto so I don’t think it matters.

Is it in auto though if Owen is scum then nightkill
Day open with dayvig, nightkill
Then day opens and Owen will be elimmed with 3+ alive

So if 6 alive auto loss?

There's one scum left?

In this world Owen is limmed and the game ends, yes?

[Thestatusquo]

GL in the supporters PT:

I think I can also make a decent argument for Titus scum by play, I thought she was scummy before Datisi claimed she was town, will do so later when I have time

I also think yah, changing her vote was a bad move, but I could see it as a desperation move given how badly the day before went for scum and if she feels she'd be POE'd out anyways. In the scum!Titus world, I think scum were hoping to go all in with the three of them endgaming and didn't have a good plan for if Datisi was limmed. if either LLD or UNOwen are scum, they basically blew up a strong position by bussing Datisi to force themselves to solo carry to endgame? just seems really unlikely, especially in LLD's case because she made the Datisi elimination happen. whereas Titus tried to halfheartedly fight back against the Datisi flip, and did so in a way where I think she was playing cautious and informed.

(I asked pooky if it was ok to post this)

[Thestatusquo]

I think this is just the most likely world. Scum was planning on going all in and almost got there but didnt because they didnt expect the pressure on datisi to start the day it did, and after that all their plans were just kind of scuffed.

[Thestatusquo]

hello fire. You are the only fire here so we can call you fire.

[Thestatusquo]

I just don't think this play ever comes from scumbringer.

[Thestatusquo]

Once again, the doc cannot self heal. I explicitly asked pooky this. Mastina is the doc, she could not have healed.

[Thestatusquo]

I guess what I asked is can they make a potion for themselves, but that amounts to the same thing in this spot I think.

[Thestatusquo]

also agree that datisi played well. will wait to read the scum pt but i talked in the PTs last night that i kinda doubted that going all in for mechanical victory would be datisi's first choice of plan and things might have ended up better if scumteam played more standard. which was a big factor in me thinking remaining scum were mastina+titus

i did have the unfair advantage of replacement reading coming in but he did a good job of talking me down from that, and i spent a while believing that the game could just be ez mode

was really not happy with basically any of LLD's play for the first few days and thought it must be coming from scum but she gets major props for turning it on eventually and getting people on board with the datisi lim

Yeah I'm kind of dreading talking to LLD post game because if she's town that means legitimately I did demotivate her out of playing 2 days of this game and we'll need to talk through that as friends.

[Thestatusquo]

I liked this game. I thought it was a really cool idea and I agree with pooky about the built in balancing mechanism of scum on the council being a reason this game was not pure follow the cop.

I think the PT stuff was just egregiously exhausting though, that's probably my biggest complaint. Having to catch up with three different threads each with 8-20 new pages every time I logged on was just so fucking mentally taxing and kept me from being able to fully invest in the game.

[Thestatusquo]

Second biggest complaint is that post count didnt reset after kingmaking phase.

[Thestatusquo]

Which is kind of what happened, looks like.

[Thestatusquo]

See, I liked that it never stopped. It seemed to fit thematically really well. People are always scheming for the throne

I understand the flavor implications, but as a person with a life it was a huge hurdle.

[Thestatusquo]

Mastina i think your argument is fundamentally flawed.

In order for it to be a bad play for town to elim Datisi there has to be some downside for them to do so, and there just isn't. We don't lose the cop. We gain three conf town and we get the cop as conf town with a conf town doctor. The Poe is tiny. Scum is likely just fucked in that world almost no matter who it is.

So when deciding what to play around you have to ask how far ahead or behind am I. And in a world where Datisi is town the town is massively ahead and can afford to play around the scum gambit.

However in a world where Datisi is scum the town is in rough shape here. They need to figure it out right now or they're screwed. I also think Datisi just did not react very well to the pressure on him. It just wasn't how i would expect town Datisi to react to these mech arguments.

So like, i think you're just wrong here. I know it sucks to lose especially to something you didn't consider because you thought it would be bad play, but i just fundamentally disagree with you that it was.

[Thestatusquo]

I also think, and i wasn't going to say this until you came into the thread insulting the town, that you were put in this position where everything hinges on Datisi living because you played the whole game badly.

You were widely scum read by everyone and you were going down. This forced Datisi to investigate you. If it weren't for that you were likely to be limmed the next day.

A similar thing can be said for Titus. It's just revisionist history to come into this thread and claim you played so good and town is garbage who got lucky when you were basically caught scum who was bought time because your partner had played well enough to be in a position to buy you that time.

[Thestatusquo]

You got into an argument with GL where you were basically denying that math exists for God's sakes.

[Thestatusquo]

That is a truly ridiculous guess.

[Thestatusquo]

Like not even accounting for the fact that its mechanically impossible, even if we pretended that wasn't true its a truly preposterous thing to think.

[Thestatusquo]

GL is at least mechanically possible, but it would require him to have taken a position where all he needed was one miselim and set that on fire in order to lose the game for fun.

[Thestatusquo]

theres really only 2 reasonable guesses for the last scum and GL isnt one of them.

[Thestatusquo]

Well...

[Thestatusquo]

Yeah its just like...extremely obviously titus and if its not we can overthrow owen anyway.

[Thestatusquo]

One of GLs greatest strengths is his ability to consider many different angles of a problem, however I hope it doesn't stop him from making the obvious play here.

[Thestatusquo]

It has to be in the kings guard last night and it's very unlikely that gl and lld would just torch their teams position for no reason so that leaves Titus and Owen as the only two mechanically possible choices that make any sense.

[Thestatusquo]

So anyway yeah it's Titus. Categorically.

[Thestatusquo]

What is Owen going on about in the supporters pt.

Firebringer is mechcleared.

[Thestatusquo]

Tbf I'm much less paranoid in the spec thread than i am in game but how do they not realize it has to be kg member.

Like if Owen is town he should know Titus 100%

[Thestatusquo]

ok nvm they do know. LLD just wants a path to confirmed win regardless of who it is which is reasonable ig

I dont have access to that chat, whats going on there?

[Thestatusquo]

(funny how this dynamic persists, even in the dead thread)

[Thestatusquo]

Wait.
What does non-Supporter Chat mean?

This question baffles me.

Have you not been speccing the whole game?

[Thestatusquo]

I think overthrow vote out Titus is the right play.