Open 871 - Haunted Village Undead PT

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Hello everyone. Confirm I am a Ghoul, but could become something cool in pre-game.

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So 1-3 JoaTs to deal with. Witch Hunter is more likely than Enchantress btw, so I'd lean towards 2 Witch Hunters/3 Enchantresses. I think intuitive JoaT order is Cop, Vig, Doc. That could mean that there are 2 Cop checks going into D2, which can in theory clear 4 players. Vig shots then clear out poe. Looks a bit scary.

Enchantresses aren't a worry on their own, because they don't stop kills, but if they get in the way of our actions, it really sucks for us. Here's what they do:

Spell Shield: protects the target from harmful magical abilities, but will not stop normal kills
vampires, ghosts, and death knights won't affect shielded targets
banshee wails and sorceress lightning won't kill shielded targets
shielded zombies won't reanimate for the night
witch divinations on shielded targets return "no result" as if roleblocked

In terms of our own picks, I just saw we can't duplicate and there's only one 1 point role, so 1 of us will be a Ghoul. I dislike Ghost (Framer), I think it's too niche and hardly ever works. Death Knight is similarly swingy/save-or-suck/unsure what I'm trying to say here in that we have to predict a vig shot, which I'd guess would be N2, but seems unlikely to work. Zombie power is good if it works, but bear in mind there is at least 1 WH (probably at least 2) and if Zombie gets smoked they don't come back. Besides, if them coming back would win then they don't. The only use of the Banshee would be to pierce through WH heals, and I think the Doc ability won't be prioritised. Besides, it gets countered by Spell shields which will be around.

So, my preferred options are:

Vampire, Witch, Ghoul
Immortal, Witch, Ghoul

Roleblocker is obviously cool, but can be countered by shield
Godfather could give us a false semi-clear and shield doesn't counter it, but obviously the Godfather could just 1) get smoked or 2) not get checked, and then it just sucks.
I definitely think Witch (Rolecop) is a good pick here.

amogus amogus

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Oh town get to know what we have?

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To be honest, I think a guilty is a death sentence even with Framer. It's just mechanically good play.

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If we're thinking 3 Hunters 1 Enchantress then, I'm leaning even more towards Vampire/Witch, but I see the merit in an Immortal. It's just that with an Immortal, a guilty is still a guilty but an inno isn't quite an inno...

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I don't know why but I did run the numebers.

The chance of 3Hunters/1Enchantress (conditioned to town having 7 points) is 8/1000 [note that it's not just (20%)^3*(10%), since in general the last role chosen can't be a Priest for lack of points, etc.]
The chance of 2Hunters/3Enchantress is 44/30000. That's 5.(45) times lower.
The chance of 1Hunter/5Enchantress I haven't actually run exactly, but by eye it's in the order of 1e-5, so I say we can ignore it mostly safely.

That would leave, given the informations we have, the chance that the setup is 3H/1E at around 84%. So I would bet on it.

(Granted, I will go back and recheck the computations tomorrow. It's very likely a messed something up, though the result is about what I would have expected)

Thanks for doing this because it's completely beyond me. This actually makes me feel more comfortable with things. If we're assuming 3 Witch Hunters then, I think each will Cop N1, which is our first problem. However, if they get a NS (town) check they probably won't out it but rather soft the result. This is why I'd really like a Witch (rolecop) because WH vig shots will be a massive problem for us if they are alive towards the back end of the game. Having thought about it more, I think the pressure not to throw the game will weigh heavy on WH, and it's likely that 1/2 of them will hold their vig until N3, using the Doc N2.

I also think RBer is better than Godfather because it stops the vig shot (and doc)

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I'm sort of questioning why RBer is balanced at 2 and Godfather at 3, but I guess if Priest is rolled then things change slightly.

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@mod, if everyone is dead who wins?

It would seem that both win conditions, as written, would trigger (since half of zero is zero)

I probably agree. We need to neutralize the Hunters fast.
Attempting to use a DK to kill them is totally unfeasible?

I think it's high-reward but also high-risk. I think the natural reaction from WHers in game as soon as they see Mafia have an Avenger, will be to delay/avoid using their vig kill, as they'd be aware that we're banking on a successful predict. Besides, I think having to guess the night the vig shot is used

and

their exact target is too difficult.

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I think the natural reaction from WHers in game as soon as they see Mafia have an Avenger, will be to delay/avoid using their vig kill, as they'd be aware that we're banking on a successful predict.

I mean, that's not bad actually. Also DK acts every night, so we do not really have to guess the night.

[Witch is probably better, yes. I'm just trying to probe the ther avenues we have]

I thought DK was one-shot for some reason, ok.

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I think the natural reaction from WHers in game as soon as they see Mafia have an Avenger, will be to delay/avoid using their vig kill, as they'd be aware that we're banking on a successful predict.

I mean, that's not bad actually. Also DK acts every night, so we do not really have to guess the night.

[Witch is probably better, yes. I'm just trying to probe the ther avenues we have]

I thought DK was one-shot for some reason, ok.

I still think predicting vig shots will be tough...but I'm also liking the idea that WHers will be afraid to shoot. Would they?

Pedit: yeah Enchantress arghh

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N1 most likely WHs will cop.
Presumably they will at least soft innos and probably undeads (though they may just shut up and kill them themselves instead?) -- would you say it will be credibly doable to pick up those soft without a Witch?
Now, if we have a DK, I presume WHs who find undead would not bother trying to vig them and instead just out them. If we don't, there's a serious chance they would not claim, which would result in a dead undead all the same but leaving us without a clear NK target

I really want a Witch, I think a lot of the game will come down to picking the right nightkills early.

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Oh, I'm not disagreeing actually. Witch's fine.

Also I'm kind of shocked that WH is worth less than a Priest, giving that Tracking cannot be tampered.

Just noticed a thing, shots negated by a Vampire are actually given back. So if we RB a shooting WH, the following night they could still shoot again

But we could RB/kill them

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Ok, what if, and please don't kill me, we did W/DK?

[Yes, I know W/V is probably the best choice. But it's also the least flashy, and I like flashy]

The difference is that if we RB a Vig, it stops every action. But DK hits the Vig and their action still goes through. And DK doesn't stop cop or doc actions

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WH not Vig

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Only 3 hours left. I'll bold some actions in case no one else comes on before deadline.

Me Vampire, biancospino Witch, Not_Mafia Ghoul.

Feel free to come on and change who has what role, but I'm liking these roles.

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I'm happy to be the Ghoul btw if NM wants Vampire

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Cool. Hopefully Witch Hunters smoke each other

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Yeah we deserve more points. Fix it Marashu!

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Confirm Vampire. Just as Jared Leto said... I crave the taste of human blood...or something

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You're chilling, just keep posting. I'll be on in a few hours.

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lololol

I feel so bad pushing Gimli when I know he's town arghhhhhh

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bianco, I feel like you'd benefit from saying some stuff you say in here in the main thread. It might make you feel more natural

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I'm so bad at being mafia. Everything I say feels so forced and I'm too nervous to take strong stances like I usually do. There's a reason I've lost all 4 of my scumgames lol

Just thought I'd get some real sad/doomed vibes going in our PT

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Why am I outting myself

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Yeah I'm just awkward though

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I would keep the thread updated with where you're at, like I said before

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I feel like I've usually tunnelled someone by now and I'm quite clearly just idling

Worried I'm becoming one of those players who enters games in the hope of getting a town role

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This game is gonna be very tough

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I can't tell how I usually act when other people are arguing

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Experienced players on alts meta reading each other...bruh

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This Kaito push is making me look awful but if I back down it looks worse. I'll try and have a bit of an argument with them and maybe resolve it so it looks T/T but that's a tough one

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Sahaira is a strong player. I'd love to nightkill them

Everyone seems to know each other on an alt

I hate being scum, I feel really awkward

This isn't fun

I need to play less mafia

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Yeah

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Sahaira is a strong player. I'd love to nightkill them

Maybe even rolecop, roleblock and kill them in the same night

Stop being obvtown good reads D;

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woof

competing wagons and this ain't good for us

I don't want to post

I am allergic to the gamethread

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I want to retire and become a mod

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We're getting torn apart here

There is no endgame

There is no clutch

It was all a lie

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Sahaira calling N_M vigbait - is that a vig soft? Do I even think that or do I just want an excuse to nightkill them? Hehehe

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Missing you guys

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No worries

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How they gonna vote off a mafia on V/LA?

Heartless

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Nice flavour, sorry for being bad undead

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I think kill Sahaira Shuichi and roleblock someone else. What do you think, Not_Mafia?

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kill Sahaira Shuichi

(spelling?)

roleblock Save The Dragons

Feel free to change if you feel strongly

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I think I'll consider it an achievement to not be voted out today. LMFAO

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As an aside, 3 hunters/1 enchantress is very likely the most likely possibility (though I'm probably too tired rn to actually run the numbers), and I suspect by a nontrivial margin

Just 2 more Joats to worry about then

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If Kaito goes over I'll consider it a win in spirit!

It's quite funny that the entire poe were only sus because they were PR.

I think I have max 1 possible mislim after today before I get voted out.

Oh well. I guess the goal is just to get as far as possible. If I was playing chat mafia I would have conceded as soon as NM died so we could start a new game, but I think ppl are still enjoying this one so I'll carry on as long as I can. Final 5 could be quite fun.

The other option is that someone realises Undead can't pick 2 of the same role, negating Maki's point about Undead not wasting points, and I just get voted out today. Lol

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I think Kokichi is too obvtown to get done for TMI, which is a shame. I think my only realistic vote target is STD tomorrow, and after that I'll probably look worse whoever I push. My only hope is town eating itself but I think these players are too smart D;

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As an aside, 3 hunters/1 enchantress is very likely the most likely possibility (though I'm probably too tired rn to actually run the numbers), and I suspect by a nontrivial margin

Prescient

Vampire and Witch PMs have been sent out.

Yeah we deserve more points. Fix it Marashu!

But that would undermine the faith I have in your team.

This aged well

This is the first time this setup's been run in its current form right? I think it's a bit townsided. Obviously we'd still be losing in mountainous after that D1 but just in general I think 3 Joats and 1 rolestopper vs Rolecop/Roleblocker/Goon is townsided. Tell Something_Smart to go back in and adjust it. Town knowing our roles is a bit too strong I think. Maybe they know how many points we got. But knowing our roles informs their nightplay too much. Also, the point values for roles aren't correctly weighted. A Joat is more powerful than a cop imo. Even if you disagree, roles like DK/Immortal are only useful if town doesn't know they're there. Anyway setup rant over.

I don't see town speedlimming either Fuyu or Maki tomorrow. I think it'll be pretty obvious that we just underspent. As soon as someone points out that Undead can't duplicate roles. It means I have to nightkill both of them, but I also want to nightkill Kokichi at some point. And Wednesday. This is tough man. The obvious choice is killing and roleblocking Fuyu tonight, even though Maki's best play is to rolestop Fuyu. Which means their vig shot will probably go through, and I don't feel good about that. Nothing I can do about it though, there's no way to make sure Fuyu gets roleblocked. I'll have to hope he misses with his shot. After I kill Fuyu (if I live through the night), I'll try to get STD eliminated and then I'll have a dilemma between Maki and Kokichi (probably choosing Maki). Can't really think any further at this point, the game depends on tonight's night actions. If Maki does rolestop Fuyu then it's curtains for me, because his vig shot will reduce the scumpool fatally for me.

Provisional night actions:

kill and roleblock Fuyuhiko Kuruzawa

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Undo actions, I'll wait for the flip

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This has suddenly become less straightforward

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This only really makes sense if Kaito was faking which, if the case, dooms me mechanically. Because I can't stop 2 Joats tonight, their actions will end the game.

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YESSSSSSSSSSS REAL WITCH HUNTER 2 DOWN BABY

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This means that at least one of the PR claims is fake but town.

As Fuyuhiko claimed Witch Hunter, I think that he's real and therefore the obvious kill choice. Only just realised that it's a %#$&ing TRACK, not a Doc! That's so much stronger...

No doubt whichever of Maki/Kokichi is the real Enchantress will put a spell shield on Fuyuhiko, but there's nothing I can really do about that.

Meh

roleblock and kill Fuyuhiko Kuruzawa

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I've got no idea why one of them is lying as town btw. Making me extremely confused

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I wonder if Kokichi mislim is possible here. I'm thinking no, but I'll just go with the thread flow (probably to my downfall)

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Gimli knows
STD knows

I think it's over for me