Election! Third Committee Meeting

[GuiltyLion]

ego

how does it feel to finally be a council member UNOwen

[GuiltyLion]

hmm

I haven't thought super deeply about it but one thought I have is that funding ActionDan is clearly useful tonight if Dan is town. if Dan is mafia, then we know for certain that SK was lying and is also mafia as a result. so IMO it feels like funding a cop!Dan has a lot of utility because the worst case (Dan scum) is still not that bad (certainty of Dan scum AND SK scum by association). and in general I'm in favor of more info earlier rather than later, so funding a cop on N3 is better than on N4.

so if we take a loan and then default out of night actions on N4 and N5, I think we'd either still find 2 wolves (SK/Dan in the worst case world) or be close to a game-winning POE anyway with info from town!Dan and town!Dan's result. and if we flip a wolf today then we're probably ahead enough in the long run that we can absorb the loss of mech power?

idk, open to hearing other perspectives on this, this is my gut intuition and not a strongly held belief of mine

[GuiltyLion]

well I guess I baked into my assumption that whoever is funded between Alisae/UNOwen is town and uses a protect on Dan

if we can't guarantee a protect on Dan (or at least guarantee a scumclaim by Not Protecting When You Were Supposed To) then my post above obviously doesn't apply since Dan could just get killed

[GuiltyLion]

to be clear, Alisae you are claiming you also have a protect ability?

in that case, it is nice that LLD can decide to fund either Alisae or UNOwen if they both agree to protect Dan if funded, and thus we keep that info hidden. scum can't kill both Dan and LLD so if Dan dies then either LLD has scumclaimed by not funding a doc, or whoever she funded has scumclaimed by not doccing. then in the next declaration phase scum won't know which role exhausted the doc ability - I'm not reallyyyy sure if that would matter at all but could be something.

I guess we could even consider a gambit where LLD saves money and doesn't fund either doc, but that seems like a big gamble for my little risk-averse heart

[GuiltyLion]

what did you think was suspicious about his last post?

I think executing Sleepy would be a great move if Sleepy is scum, but I don't think he's particularly likely to be scum and so it's more likely we'd be wasting a lim on town under the guise of confirming Dan.

[GuiltyLion]

hmmm

I may be considering switching to SleepyKrew after all

if furtive/Ircher are both town then I think we are in trouble

but I wanna see how he replies to me in main before I switch my vote

[GuiltyLion]

The gamestate feels odd, like, why is furtive defending blood/sheep so much?? like, it's not making sense to me, like ok sure I can be wrong, but if I'm wrong on that SR, this has to come from having TMI??

at night phase we still have access to this chat right?

I'm with you on the gamestate feeling odd it's been driving a lot of my unease today

at this point though I don't think Ircher is town and I feel his vote switch from Sleepy to furtive was really bad, regardless of the alignment of either of those players, it feels like he's just clammed up and is trying to survive and give nothing else away

the most convenient explanation to me for this game is the scumteam is actually exactly Ircher/SK/furtive, that would neatly explain a lot of the weird behavior between the three and the furtive TMI townread on blood, I keep getting gut pings of town from sheep

however the most convenient explanation is not more likely than the field of anyone else being scum, and is also the laziest, so I worry

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, Ircher's switch from sheep* not sleepy

[GuiltyLion]

I still think if furtive is town then something weird is definitely going on cause there's a thread resistance to voting furtive outside of LLD

[GuiltyLion]

I'm saying it's odd that nobody scumreads you, yet nobody wants to vote/lim furtive. you're the only one who has seriously pushed it, and when I tried to sheep and steer away from Ircher wagon I was met with a lot of immediate pushback.

I didn't really notice/think about this until just now but especially odd is SleepyKrew was voting furtive yesterday, but then today when I voted furtive he immediately started calling me scum and making it about alleged inconsistency in my treatment/read of furtive.

[GuiltyLion]

oh and sorry, caveat is that it's extra weird if furtive is town because then he'd be a juicy miselim ripe for the taking. so if Ircher is scum and furtive is town then it means scum are actively choosing to bus or let their partner die vs push furtive

[GuiltyLion]

cmonnn Shea give us the flip

the anticipation is killing me

[GuiltyLion]

that's a disappointing flip

save us Andante

[GuiltyLion]

I'm gonna reread the whole game I'm tired of talking myself into whatever lim UNOwen/Bingle want and then it flipping town, something is seriously wrong here even if they're both town

[GuiltyLion]

it's probably furtive+SK+ mystery third, maybe Bingle but could be anyone

[GuiltyLion]

the second I voted furtive was the second SK came out of the woodwork to start pushing/provoking me

despite the fact that SK was voting/scumreading furtive on D2

and furtive's "bus" on SK sure went nowhere huh

[GuiltyLion]

it's probably furtive+SK+ mystery third, maybe Bingle but could be anyone

Furtive is trying to bus SK?
Are you mad?

like why is this such an incredulous reaction

what tangible actions or info do we actually have that suggests they can't possibly be aligned

[GuiltyLion]

even if they're not S/S given the VCA/gamestate situation mid to end of D2 I posted at start of D3, it's almost a given that one of them has to be scum. if SK is town it means the wagon on furtive on D2 was all town and completely stalled through both D2 and D3 -> scum aren't voting him. if SK is scum then SK is scum

[GuiltyLion]

that's not an argument for being town? nothing he's done has resulted in a pro town outcome

[GuiltyLion]

ok Alisae who are your wolfreads then

I can buy a town!furtive only in the specific world where SK is scum. if SK is town we need to find three wolves outside of him and furtive and I'd be extremely hard pressed to find three, AND also explain why furtive hasn't flipped yet

like we can flip SK first maybe sure but I feel like you're exaggerating the level of risk furtive was taking

[GuiltyLion]

Why does furtive not flipping yet need an explanation?

-___-

I've touched on this a few times

D2 furtive was a counterwagon to both xof (flipped town) and ActionAndante (assumed cop inno). LLD, who everybody treats as a universal townread, has been tunneling furtive since D2. furtive's wagon also consisted of Pooky (flipped town) and SleepyKrew (assumed cop). On D3 he also had me (FMPOV town) and Ircher (flipped town) voting him at one point or another as well.

so if furtive is town, the question is why aren't scum pushing him? The only explanations that make sense are

1. SleepyKrew is The Scum pushing him, in which case we should flip SleepyKrew
2. LLD is scum, which like... maybe? but probably not given Bingle effectively clearing her and the way the rest of the game has treated her as town and ignored her?
3. No scum are pushing furtive despite the fact that he's town and set himself up to be a super easy miselimination

[GuiltyLion]

sorry, and if it wasn't clear explanation 3 makes no sense to me, that's just not what I see in mafia games usually. Potential scum in town!furtive haven't even been positioning themselves to push him, you have Alisae calling him town, Dragons refusing to join a wagon, etc. so if furtive isn't scum, I feel like SK

must

be, and it's still possible both of them are scum together. SK attacking me for voting furtive on D3 doesn't sit right with me

[GuiltyLion]

but no one is even setting themselves up to push him. like most of the people who would be possible scum in that world are townreading furtive and not angling to vote him. so he's not a super easy miselimination, because it seems like the only people pushing him are town and there's not enough to put him over a threshold. it feels like scum are resisting voting him

[GuiltyLion]

it's theoretically possible but that's not how I generally expect people play scum, usually they start angling to do that a game day or two in advance, plant seeds for their trajectory. I think most people aren't confident enough to execute a convincing 180 like that and just going "whoops I was wrong I guess it's furtive" would look pretty bad. hell Ircher was

just

eliminated in part because he came into the game claiming he would sheep dead!pooky's reads, people don't like it when they think your trajectories or thought processes don't follow your own process, if someone goes from "I'm not voting furtive" to "I'm voting furtive" they're gonna get scrutiny and scum hate setting themselves up for scrutiny

[GuiltyLion]

idk it's not a solid case in and of itself like I would absolutely want to bolster this read with updated thoughts on furtive's play after a reread, but I just really get a vibe that the gamestate doesn't make a lot of sense right now and I'm sensing scum are protecting their own pretty hard here, and it's a notably off dynamic that no one is suspecting LLD but no one is following her either

[GuiltyLion]

yeah to be clear I didn't mean to suspect LLD at all, I think she's town and my post around gamestate weirdness was saying if LLD is town (common opinion) then furtive being town makes things fishy, I definitely do not recommend a cop shot on LLD

if you feel your POE is too small I don't think Bingle/sheep should be totally cleared, they feel townie but I don't think they're outside of a scum range especially given back to back miselims

I'd recommend a cop in the pool of {furtive, Alisae, Bingle, sheep} but that's just my personal input/opinion and I don't want to dictate your shot too much.

My only other main thing is don't cop SleepyKrew because the whole point of making ActionDan cop was so that we could form a chain of investigations where we'd have a confirm town if we flip mafia outside the chain, if you investigate SK then if you get an inno it doesn't really confirm anything to the rest of town unless one of you flips.

[GuiltyLion]

I mean like, assuming I was funded here, I was literally only told "cop someone who isn't going to die" and have been trying to gather as much imput as possible, like hello people, some yall were CONVINCED ircher was maf now you're silent? waiting to yell at me tomorrow for "WHY WOULD YOU COP X!!?!?!" I'm trying I really am, for some reason when I saw dan was sheriff I was thinking EM sheriff, like guns and pew pew, which like, I guess vig shot would not be better here.. hahahahaha

maybe I just try to find a town with cop? give us more clears? thanks for at least giving some imput

like, I just need "who to NEVER check here" and "who people would like checked" in other words, please help, cause whether I have a cop check or not, we have 3 scum alive and like, I want to have decent reads goin into tomorrow...

I promise I won't yell "WHY WOULD YOU COP X" as long as it's not SleepyKrew <3