Election! Scum PT

[Bingle]

Nice to come back to the site to a win.

[Bingle]

Right, so shea closed the loopholes that were the basis for an optimal town strat I saw on my first page through.

It's confirmed that other than the roles in the OP the town is vanilla, and the town roles are %random based on treasurer. That means that this town is slightly underpowered on the face of things before the hidden roles are taken into account. That jives with Shea's mod philosophy.

Roles:

Sheriff: Persistent cop

Probably our biggest threat. A cop every night, and nothing to be done to stop it. We can kill the user, but the role doesn't go away. This is particularly scary if town figures out the best way to use it (a double cop) and there's not really a chance I could not figure that out. I'll have to look at the player list to see if I think I can get away with that, but my gut says no. Depending on player list, at least 2/4 of us are very likely cop targets.

Treasurer: This is a trap. It is crazy high value as a scum pickup, but also very likely to get the scum using it to get caught.

Mayor/CM: JOAT. Given no protective, there is likely a protective role somewhere in this bundle. Probably second largest target.

My power is flicking out and on so I'm going to post this but I have more thoughts to share soon.

[Bingle]

Also, shea, this isn't actually a semi open. A semi open is a setup that has all knowledge about potential setups public, but which setup is in use is secret. This is a closed smalltown.

[Bingle]

you and lld. I'm super rusty and might duck through on the grounds that I literally haven't played a hidden info game in more than a year, but both of you are among the first targets.

I don't remember Meowth, so I can't comment on likelihood of being copped. Luckily pooky is also a good cop target, but I don't see a name that competes with you three on the list for a night one cop.

[Bingle]

k fine i will do it

should i just yolo nominate myself for that as soon as the day starts or shortly thereafter

10000% yes. ASAP, preferably before I get to post.

[Bingle]

Also, shea, this isn't actually a semi open. A semi open is a setup that has all knowledge about potential setups public, but which setup is in use is secret. This is a closed smalltown.

you shut up

holy fucking bingle

Nah, I'm ace. Fucking is pretty much the only contraindicated activity.

[Bingle]

Alright, so double cop usage in a smalltown, particularly one with persistent roles: The cop role goes to the the (# of scum+1th person) in the thread. This is because the cop invariably gets shot at some point, so forcing the cop onto a person who we actually want shot is ideal. That also means that we DON'T want cop to be an otherwise strong town player.

In doing this, instead of getting 0-1 cop shots, we get 1-2. This is an oversimplification of the process, but it's demonstrative no less. If we can get the 3 player minimum of people vying for cop out of the way before I even enter the thread, then we can't use it this way on D1 which is a massive loss to town. I'm probably going to campaign against you getting the cop shot anyway, Dats, but that's mostly because I recognize you and wouldn't want you to be an early death in this pl were I town.

[Bingle]

LLD, you going for honest treasurer/town leader is 100% a good idea. If you can take control of the thread then we're in a great spot, and you do be good at that.

Meowth, I'm not aware of your play style. If you're a yolo-y player, I'd immediately self nom for whatever seems fun. If not, I think you might be our best bet to make our N1 kill, so being non controversial and loosely aligning yourself with the tracker's reads is probably a smart place to be.

I don't think we should try to fuck with night actions on N1 so much as the later nights. We also shouldn't lie about things like ability costs or usages, because most of the PRs are geared towards finding out lies like that.

I expect there to be a roleblocker and a doc on the opposite JOATs. Probably not a vig, tbh, given the ungodly levels of swing scum with access to a vig represents. Shea likes chaotic setups, but we already have a significant amount of power and giving us the ability to end the game a day early is probably too much, even for him. I'll probably bring that up and campaign for a no lim on D1.

Shea's wording on the JOATs leaves it ambiguous as to whether they recharge all shots when awarded or whether used shots are simply removed from the role PM. Likely, he's not going to clarify that and it's intentional. I am assuming the former, based on balance concerns.

[Bingle]

k fine i will do it

should i just yolo nominate myself for that as soon as the day starts or shortly thereafter

10000% yes. ASAP, preferably before I get to post.

Same for me? As town I would go for a JOAT I think

Unironically, getting JOAT N1 would be the best possible outcome.

[Bingle]

I recognize you and wouldn't want you to be an early death in this pl were I town.

i choose to believe this is because you think i'm fun and cool to be around with and not because i'm someone you would have an easier time reading due to the familiarity

Neither, actually. It's because I can expect you to be useful if town and probably BoP you if the town starts falling apart later down the line. Your bringing fun into the thread is incidental.

My strategy as town is to put the town into a place where scum has to thread a very tight needle, and town you makes that needle tight indeed. To that end, I try to protect people I see as potentially large late game town assets. Anyone I perceive to be able to break open the scum plan on D4-5 is a bad person to get strong powers early because if they are town then losing them is like giving scum two shots for the price of one.

In this situation, I'd want someone like firbrunger to be the N1 cop. He's chaotic and hard to read, with decent reads, but he never really obvtowns. He tends to be a lot more active and reliable in the early game, and if he gets shot his suspicions gain a very high level of credence.

[Bingle]

Shea's wording on the JOATs leaves it ambiguous as to whether they recharge all shots when awarded or whether used shots are simply removed from the role PM.

@shea

can you clarify this

The set of things I can do is much larger than the set of things I will do.

I know you too well.

[Bingle]

<3

This is a pretty great role PM to come back to, ngl.

[Bingle]

Yes. In the interest of blindly guessing at shea's mind, we likely have a large enough budget to fully fund ~2 roles per night. Sheriff will be the most or second most expensive, and Board of Elections will likely be the cheapest. Board of elections is a trap for town, scum has no reason to lie there so the role is actually pretty useless and shouldn't get funded, despite being cheap. There is a large chance that unused budget gets added to the budget for the next day, and a larger chance that the costs and budget are not fixed, but rather change over the course of the game. This is because Shea likes to punish players for trying to outguess him and he would be happy to see town mislim over something like "They said the role cost 50 but it costs 60. They must be lying!" I'm currently leaning towards JOATs having a variable cost per ability with the strength of the ability being related to cost, but that's not necessarily the case. I have a couple of thoughts as to ways to confirm this information, but nothing super relevant at the moment.

[Bingle]

Game thread is open. Remember not to talk about anything I've specced on in here, but feel free to jump into the convo. I'm going to plead absence until later tonight.

[Bingle]

my ballot is as I posted in the thread. Don't lie about your votes in thread, and try to match what you do to what you'd do if you were town.

If we vote differently from how we say we'd vote, and someone unexpectedly wins an election, that means scum were outside of the people who said they'd vote that person for sure, and has valuable analysis for WHY that person was pushed through without actually confirming them as either scum or town.

[Bingle]

I'd vaguely prefer GL get elected so we can shoot him, but not enough to make it worth other people voting him unnaturally. I'm also 100% fine shooting somewhere else if someone has a different kill preference, but I think GL is likely a threat to both of us.

[Bingle]

It's not so much that he's a threat but rather that I think there's a distinct lack of clear threats and he could become one. I think pooky is pretty easily pocketed by LLD.

[Bingle]

NO TAXATION DESPITE REPRESENTATION

[Bingle]

Do what town menalque would do.

[Bingle]

Excellent pushback to my puppet mastering, LLD.

Keep up the good work and we can keep town from coming together quite nicely, I think.

[Bingle]

Haven't read the thread yet, but <3 LLD.

Sorry, I woke up this morning with a migraine and I'm just barely human at this point.

[Bingle]

i appreciate you standing up for me

the behaviour here is...appauling and i'm really tired of like

being loud and female being enough for people to decide there is some problem with me. I

Honestly, I kind of wasn't intending to stand up for you, and I'm probably less likely to pick up on you needing someone in your corner than I am with other people. For better or worse I've got this headcannon of you having your shit together in a way where you don't need the emotional support, even though intellectually I know that that's not a real thing and no one actually exists who has all of their shit together in a way that they don't need emotional support.

I'm glad that I helped, though, even if it wasn't what I set out to do, and a little bit sad that the little bit of support I ended up giving was enough to get that kind of response. Just know, from what few interactions we've had over the years I think you're an awesome person and I wouldn't change a thing about you. <3

[Bingle]

Secretly, meowth has been a raw newbie gaslighting us the whole time.

[Bingle]

btw, well done on staying cool the last few pages, meowth. I'm distancing rn, but I genuinely do think this will help let you stay alive. Keep on keeping on

[Bingle]

nom meowth for the title "Secretly Not an Alt"

[Bingle]

Hello!
What is the gameplan

Step 1: Steal Underpants
Step 2: ????
Step 3: Profit

[Bingle]

Lld is bussing meowth but blowback from being aggressive is simultaneously making it easy to townread her and killing her wim. Dats was under a little bit of pressure, but not much. Meowth had a few awkward steps but is still in the realm of “can slip the elim and town it up”.

Setup is fairly straightforward, with persistent town power that we have the potential to subvert. Probably a try not to bus if possible game overall, because the longer it goes on the more relevant town power becomes.

[Bingle]

Definitely possible, yeah. I don't think town is weak, but it's definitely been disfunctional so far. We just have to keep them from organizing.

[Bingle]

This tunnel is going to be so comfortable.

[Bingle]

I mean... I'd start with basically that post.

"I feel like I'm letting the town down, does anyone have anything they want me to weigh in on so I can get back into the game and not be so detached" is a pretty reasonable town sentiment.

Odds are if you're dealing with apathy and an inability to track reads here as scum, you'd be having the same issues as town. Also, something something genuine emotion shines through something something.

[Bingle]

I wouldn’t mind furtive staying around short term because he’s been very loud about protecting me, but I have enough of those that it’s probably unnecessary. On the other hand, I may have pissed off enchant to the point where I’m the cop target. :shrugs:

[Bingle]

I should pretty much solidify LLD’s stance as town leader when/if I die though, so… yeah, I think we have this.

[Bingle]

If you're still debating without input from the council, our best bet is probably taking out a loan if we can get away with it and you think you can make it believable you thought it was a good idea. (actions are likely to have a greater impact on later nights)

I think you can get away with funding Furtive because I can make the kill and he's never going to target me and we're not doing any other targeted actions. Despite the animosity there, you might be able to sell it as a hedging your bets kind of thing or a making furtive justify his choices thing. I think it's a foregone that you fully fund cop/JOAT/JOAT, basically regardless of what the JOATs actually have if you can budget wise.

You probably shouldn't tell the council about the bankruptcy thing in the interest of "keeping the knowledge that town power is nonconsecutive night" out of the hands of scum.

Otherwise, I think you're best situated to make specific calls given even if you summarize PT information we'll still be seeing it through a filter.

[Bingle]

I'd kind of assumed you were drawing it out to kill town WIM and allow town to paranoia themselves out of the meowth lim, though, tbh.

[Bingle]

I lean shoot enchant.

AD just outed pooky as vig.

[Bingle]

Not directly, but given the enchant/pooky/me conversation the "I only implicitly outed my abilities" means that pooky is the source of the confidence we'd be off of evens.

[Bingle]

Oh, sorry, I just realized I missed like half of page 6. Sorry you're having a rough time and I wasn't able to support you, LLD. I'm not sure that I can do much in thread, given I'm kind of committed to being antagonistic theory wise and I'm already lowkey TR-ing you and anything more would be suspicious at this point. I can definitely shore up my townread and eat crow if I win treasurer tomorrow, but I'm pretty much forced into playing my hand for that at this point.

[Bingle]

Literally doesn’t matter. We know town can’t track tonight.

[Bingle]

Don’t declare for anything if you would have read up. We should be publicly picking a scummy cop first.

[Bingle]

Otherwise sheriff works best but I’ll have to argue against you getting it.

[Bingle]

The real question is do we want to rig an election tomorrow. If we think we’ll have a tight election between us that might be a solid plan to throw suspicion away from us.

[Bingle]

Lol, Ali sniping me. I’m assuming lld and I are both gonna run for treasurer, for context.

[Bingle]

Absolute best case would be a race where Ali was voting me and lld lost despite a public majority.

[Bingle]

It would give me a reason to solidify my lld townread, “confirm” scum in an all town pool, and generally fuck gamestate reads while making LLD look super town. Not sure we can actually orchestrate that though.

[Bingle]

Cool people
Ali - Mayor?
Bingle - Treasurer
Lady Lambdadelta - Treasurer

Uncool people
ActionDan
Bloodb0t
Furtiveglance
pookythemagicalbear
xofelf
Save the Dragons
GuiltyLion
Gimli
Unowen
SleepyKrew

Okay, so here's the playerlist when we wake up, barring pooky being cunning like a bear and doccing Enchant instead of shooting Cakez, which is theoretically feasible. The top 4 uncool people had PT access.

SK and Bloodb0t have been absent as fuck, so are decent choices to push for sheriff noms. Everyone else is at least active. Herta was V/LA for the entirety of yesterday and was replaced by Gimli, who seems at least somewhat manipulatable.

Day start is 3v10 so we need approximately 4 miselims. If we can reasonably get Ali the mayor slot that'd be sweet. It's very unlikely, but theoretically possible, that the vig is repeatable given the wording in the OP. "players will not be shown abilities used by their predecessors" could be parsed either way, but is more likely to mean the roles are erased after use.

GL, Bot, Uno, and Furtive are all arguing me for town pretty strongly. STD looks bad for being on meowth but shopping other lims, I think. Pooky is town af and a potential issue, but he's pretty comfortably in LLD's corner I think. Ideally we get gimli/furtive lims. I don't think Uno is going to be a viable play given scum counterwagon until late game, but given enough town flips of the people pushing there we could probably work it out.

If I win treasurer, I can tank the economy by taking a loan and funding if we want to commit to a bus, or I can play it safe and try to stay a townread. The latter is probably better because this setup favors town the longer it goes on. LLD is our anchor slot and absolutely plays it towny. We can probably afford to fake a successful doc at some point without losing momentum assuming vig shot is indeed only one use, but doing so early makes us more likely to benefit from it.

[Bingle]

If we kill enchant it doesn’t matter. There’s a vague chance it’s me and pooky is lying, but there’s not really room to play around that.

[Bingle]

Mayor seems like the stronger option between the joats.

[Bingle]

to be clear, I don't think you need to go for mayor, but I think the advantage is largest if you do.

[Bingle]

Well... This is a dayphase.

[Bingle]

Excellent. That means we should hold our fucking with elections shots for the late game, probably.

[Bingle]

I just realized there's a really silly thing we can do later.

If no one campaigns for a role, it's permanently removed from the game. If we permanently remove the treasurer from the game, the game becomes vanilla. If we have another opportunity to get a single person campaigning for treasurer, they can scumclaim by failing to declare and then the game becomes mountainous.

[Bingle]

Not saying we should do that, but we CAN do that.

[Bingle]

No, LLD had nothing to do with getting meowth limmed. It was furtive. I promise.

[Bingle]

Why is it that when I feel like I'm openwolfing hardest I get the most townreads?

[Bingle]

I mean... I'm pretty clearly buddying you despite that we're diametrically opposed and no one's calling me out on that. It's just funny as fuck.

[Bingle]

You should tell the truth on voting. We actually don’t gain anything on lying, but we could lose by getting a result that doesn’t match ballots.

You should both abstain on treasurer. If somehow no townie votes me in the game becomes mountainous

[Bingle]

Lying about abstaining is low risk, comparatively.

If we get everyone abstaining we can just say we forgot or didn’t think the race mattered. I do think it super unlikely it actually works, but there’s no real risk in trying.

[Bingle]

I'm pretty close to a teamsolve:

Furtiveglance
pookythemagicalbear
SleepyKrew
ActionDan
xofelf
Save the Dragons
GuiltyLion
Lorne Malvo
Unowen
sheepsaysmeep

[Bingle]

I definitely don’t scumclaim today, we have too many available shinies to chase. It’s just an option for future days.

[Bingle]

185. Feels low, but not super low. That is in addition to your 22 which is explicitly mentioned to be from you

[Bingle]

We might also want to lie about how much I got funding wise because we can burn a PR via LLD and underfund it.

[Bingle]

we got approximately $30 less than expected tax wise.

[Bingle]

Yesterday was about $40 less than expected.

If LLD didn't claim amounts, that adds up to about an activation of a JOAT.

[Bingle]

I'm thinking full fund LLD for a peacekeep on SK and partial fund SK to like 80%. That's probably the strongest option we have the opportunity to burn (it's just as good as tracker investigation wise if we lose more members and honestly we're in a position where trackers are like the least dangerous thing to us.) That lets us double SK's cost and leave it as a 40% ish chance of a cop going through, and SK becomes a high contention slot most of the time. I think I would do something similar as town (because I'm very clearly not funding a doc attempt on SKrew so I would definitely consider funding a doc attempt on SKrew) and it makes LLD look terrible only until it becomes confirmed she didn't use the roleblock and instead protected.

We expect a treasury value of 180 ish tomorrow which is less than a full cop and a full protect, so we shouldn't be too worried, especially with the likelihood we get to make all the decisions still being fairly high.

[Bingle]

87 to Skrew
120 to LLD

I’m thinking sabotage SK and kill GL/Pooky but I’m not thinking it very loudly.

[Bingle]

Isn't pooky limmable?

At this point I'm pretty sure the only lim we couldn't get in the next couple days is LLD's, so...

[Bingle]

I don’t think we need to rb Skrew. The peacekeeper power is a bigger threat tbh, and there’s gonna be about a ~40% chance skrew does anything. Even if he does, I sorta doubt any of us are high priority cop shots.

[Bingle]

That’s kind of why I’m reluctant to kill SK. I think if we go that route LLD should probably holster and we put the possibility of being caught mechanically on me.

[Bingle]

It’s on p2 of this thread I think. Basically, SK has 87/110 of succeeding with the action if we do nothing. If we use the double cost, that is halved and SK isn’t told it’s halved.

[Bingle]

So SK tries to cop, probably gets no result and goes “I was roleblocked”. I admit to slight underfunding but that it’s unlikely the roll would fail and SKrew looks hella suspicious. LLD comes under suspicion when AD says she has a roleblocker but that suspicion disappears after she is corroborated by whoever gets her role, leaving her even stronger coming into the elim phase

[Bingle]

Eh. There’s no one I really want dead, I just kinda think we’re looking at a free day phase here if Skrew fails to investigate.

We could fake a successful protection on Skrew, given that peacekeeper on Skrew is also pretty reasonable given scum Skrew is likely the one making the kill. I don’t think it costs us a cycle, b/c we’re pretty good as far as predicting when prs will have a chance to act from here.

[Bingle]

Could maybe get rid of uno/sheep? There are too many mislimable townies.

[Bingle]

Cause copSkrew won’t be rb’d. Of all the people on a hypothetical scumteam, he’s the one who is most expendable AND the one least likely to be tracked or blocked.

[Bingle]

Sheep seems like it would be the better kill but people are suspecting it

Is the kill being expected a bad thing? That just makes it less likely people will wake up to the whole scumteam being in the town core, I think.

[Bingle]

Can we please just have the elimination, town? Please? I promise we'll only murder some of you tonight.

[Bingle]

Apparently the council pt stays open at night?

So as I see it, we have 3 options:

Kill SK, holster abilities.
Kill NotSK, burn peacekeeper ability and make copping 2x cost.
No kill, burn peacekeeper, make cop 2x price, claim successful peace on SK.

I’m not a huge fan of killing SK and hoping town believes LLD got roleblocked when her ability disappears.

[Bingle]

I’m willing to let y’all pick between those. If we kill SK there’s a good chance I go down soon as I have no real explanation for where the budget went.

[Bingle]

Pooky is sr-ing you and rr-ing furtive in the pt.

[Bingle]

Is the Economy Sheriff like one of those air dancer things you see in used car lots? :thonk:

[Bingle]

RELEASE THE ANTS!

[Bingle]

right but SK had a 40% chance of being successful at his cop check

40% that he's successful, I'd say somewhere around 40% he targeted Ali or me, with the lions share on me BECAUSE I underfunded him. I don't think he targets you last night at all. I know it's a risk, and if it bites us it's 100% on me that it happened, but I'm not too concerned.

[Bingle]

Hi what role am I campaigning for?
I know I should wait until SK puts out a result but what should I do?

I dunno. Like, ideally we get treasurer again and steamroll this town, but at this point the PRs are less useful. As long as we have solid dayplay we should be able to go for whatever feels natural.

[Bingle]

We're at 3v8 rn, so we need 3 more mislims?

Hopefully Skrew got no result, because that should be a free mislim if true.
Ali could probably fake a guilty on someone as a cop fairly convincingly if e gets put under the microscope, but we should put that off as long as possible. Potential plan for the day before XLO? Maybe?

[Bingle]

That's why letting SK have a cop was such a risk. He probably copped me, so we need to be certain the 60% went our way.

If I thought for a minute you were getting copped we would have buried me over risking it. You were in the sweet spot of townread and low profile. Feel free to light bus me, btw.

[Bingle]

yeah the goal is to make today ircher vs furtive

and keep heat off you

I mean it’s obviously ircher. Him jumping into the thread with a consensus townread on me when he’s apparently not read enough to realize I was sharing pt reads instead of summarizing eod is sus as hell.

You’re just tunneled on furtive cause he pissed you off.

[Bingle]

This is the thread where we theater, right?

[Bingle]

I’ll poke you about that post in a little bit. I’m on my phone which makes it hard to snip quote.

[Bingle]

do you think that's a good answer?

I think I'd go with the honest answer, but I can twist it to my purposes regardless of how you answer. It's why I asked the question in the first place.

[Bingle]

(The point is that I want to look at the game and say if you're scum it's with someone like furtive or Lorne, because if you had teammates like GL you'd be more invested in the game.)

[Bingle]

Pooky mind controlled me to fund him to vig himself, and then also mind controlled Shea to flip him as town.

[Bingle]

I think regardless of his alignment Bingle TRing her that strongly means she's likely town.

Bingle finding literally any excuse to townread his partners in a game where keeping the whole scumteam alive is the easiest way to win? Perish the thought.

[Bingle]

Ohmigod, can we get mayor GL, AD cop, and scum treasurer and CM? I would very much like Christmas presents.

[Bingle]

It’s just very important that town controls the treasury, and no one can be trusted more than you to do so

Especially not the cop clear.

[Bingle]

You're coming across as outraged, which isn't particularly towny from you but will probably net you townreads anyway in the absence of a pl who is well versed in your style.

[Bingle]

GL doesn't get money as board member. It's a glorified neighbor position.

JOAT powers remaining: Mayor (Doc JK) CM (Track Roleblock)

Sorry to split the Mayor election, Ali, but there's no real point to me lurking it out to put you on the council and I don't think I can convincingly think up a reason to run against unowen. If anything, me fighting you on mayor makes us look unaligned, I think. I'm going to abstain on every election except cop, just in case we get lucky on no votes. LLD you can safely vote Ali while lying about voting me or vice versa, but I don't think it's likely to be a close election so we can't really rely on that to further cast associative doubt.

Our average funding is just shy of two full activations. More than that is less likely to be more than less than that, based on the model skew, so we should be good there. We have double scum on the PR board, so we can hide funneling extra funds into the garbage again if we want. We could maybe oh shit button this night, although that would be a terrible option for town to take and I'm not sure LLD can convincingly not know that. If we do, I think I kill AD and claim to have Docced him. Depending on how things shake out you can go for the bus on me and solidify your position or we can lim Uno for rb-ing me. At that point town will have no power left.

Otherwise, I definitely think we fuck with funding and give me and AD the money since LLD would know that town doesn't have another protection on the CM side.

[Bingle]

I just realized something.

The treasurer role disperses funds to power roles. The treasurer is itself a power role, although one that does not require funds to operate.

Sending a question to Shea to answer in here real quick.

[Bingle]

Damn, we can't obscure funding in the treasurer and leave me unfunded. There's that pseudo town confirmation undone.

[Bingle]

Best of both worlds, Ali gets mayor and I get to distance by trying for it. Sweet!

[Bingle]

Uhhhh I will do more meaningful things tomorrow sorrry

I checked in very briefly once earlier and felt very good about lld
Sorta funny that that came from an interaction where lld called someone out for feeling too good about lld

I wonder who that someone could have been.

[Bingle]

150

Nice, three low rolls on funding to go with the three scum treasurers. Not excessively low, but low nonetheless.

[Bingle]

you can justify taking out a loan here I think?

If you go for the loan I think it has to be enough to fund both JOATs. Ali kills instead of doccing because we can assume e won't get rb'd and we try to elect scum to Mayor to cover that up tomorrow. I think between the two of us we have a decent shot of getting a mayor nomination. We can then safely use the doc with 0 funding that night while the town is in default.

[Bingle]

A small loan is actually better for town here, actually. If town can pay back the loan it doesn't stop them from acting during the next day, so if the loan is for a value of less than $100 it's possible to loan twice in a row.

[Bingle]

It also makes sense for LLD not to fund Uno knowing that the peacekeeper is gone. That might make it necessary to bus you tomorrow though.

[Bingle]

If we don't double fund we 100% try to let a town player into the mayor slot to corroborate that you docced tonight, btw.

[Bingle]

I think we can get away with a small loan and steal the council again tomorrow.

Keep our lies as small as possible so that the reactions are more natural.

[Bingle]

I don’t think we need to limit the fund tonight? If we’re just killing AD anyway it kinda seems like a waste.

[Bingle]

And I don’t want to let AD investigate. He’s a bit more likely to catch one of us, I think.

[Bingle]

I think wiretap uno if we go for big loan or rig something tomorrow are better, tbh.

[Bingle]

Use what we have to fund 2 players then sabotage that, no loan

Mathematically funding two roles with $150 is a very bad plan for town. Assuming the optimal funding choice of prioritizing money into the less expensive role, cop goes off less than half the time. Assuming a split funding of 75% to each (which we don't have the funds to do regardless) we only have both act a little more than half the time meaning scum shooting into the cop is very likely to be backbreaking one way or another. If LLD has made any comments on funding shortages, then this is a very eyebrow raising path and an unnecessary way for us to get caught, imo. We could have LLD lie and say you were more funded than you were, but that just shifts extra suspicion onto you.

We could go the full fund a cop and leave both JOATs unfunded as WIFOM path paying forward the remaining funds, but that kind of throws the suspicion on LLD and I'm not sure if we want to deal with that. If LLD wants to shout down the inevitable suspicion I'm all for it, but the lion's share of that work would be hers and we're kind of counting on her to endgame this.

[Bingle]

I think I’d prefer shooting GL into F7. He used to be a big effort in XLO player and that sounds exhausting.

[Bingle]

Fair. That just means I have to actually effort in XLO. :sadeyes:

[Bingle]

God I wish furtive was the one who ate the lim today. That would make tomorrow a cakewalk. Like, somehow town just turbolims him over ircher and we get free candy.

[Bingle]

I think it only works if you and I don't pivot. But if GL/LLD manage to switch the momentum on Furtive without making ircher obvtown I would be :party:

[Bingle]

I mean… we want to play mafia. It’s just a really bad plan to shake up the town and make them think here.

[Bingle]

Did you just… get SK to start pushing GL? Is a GL elim what happens here? What even is this game?

[Bingle]

Fucking Andante. This is gonna be exhausting.

(No offense Andante, but you're definitely a lot of effort to manage.)

[Bingle]

No, because Andante is going to waffle for 4 days and shout down any attempt at actually ending the day. It's what she does.

[Bingle]

I don't remember the last time I ever played a game that is as peak comedy as this one

I dunno, there was the one where GIF caught you by fakeclaiming tracker.

[Bingle]

So there’s 4 scum in this game, but are we absolutely sure there aren’t also jesters?

[Bingle]

I think claiming to be overfunded casts doubt on LLD. If we're gonna overfund we should keep that quiet.

Town hasn't seen evidence of funding shenanigans, just evidence of low budgets.

[Bingle]

I don't really think it makes your failure more believable than just there being factional actions, tbh, and it would definitely be a weird thing for LLD to have done. I think just claiming full funding is probably just the best course of action. We don't need to give town more reasons to slow down and think when they're already playing to the beat we want them to.

[Bingle]

We are agreed on murderlating the puppy still, right?

[Bingle]

Bingle kills Andante

[Bingle]

What's the plan for tomorrow? Play it by ear or do we want to have a goal in mind?

[Bingle]

you have to hope for the 30% as an out that village can't pay back loan

Most likely amount of funding is 150, with lower more likely than higher. so it's fairly safe to bet we only have to deal with a $60 budget. That means treasurer should 100% be going for take out a big loan and fund cop/joat/tracker. I'd like to be tracker or mayor ideally. I'd also like LLD to get tracker or mayor. We can force a funding choice publicly so getting treasurer doesn't really matter anymore.

I think sheep cop would be fine? Agree we don't really want furtive cop.

[Bingle]

I think it would be easy for Bingle to say "Ya I'ma wait and see but if Ali is wolf I can't find who their partners are so I want to trust Ali"

This might be tough for me to pull off, given that I was just soft signalling being willing to lim you, but if we want to I can try. There are approximately 0 worlds where townBingle doesn't lim Ali here though, and I'm slightly scared GL will point that out.

[Bingle]

That's pretty reasonable. It's not so much that I'm afraid GL brings it up, but that I'm afraid others might realize it's true. Like I said, I'm willing to try for the GL mislim if y'all want to go in on it.

[Bingle]

You're not town
You can say you've taken a step back, wait and see how things play out, and eventually come to the conclusion that if I'm a wolf you just can't identify my partners.
You would also have to tr me and find my reasoning for furtive being town compelling

lld's angle is fine as well

but tbh, even if GL points it out, it's irrelevant because we vote him and no one will care about what he had to say.

I mean... I take a step back regardless. There's a guilty in thread.

[Bingle]

That's fair.

[Bingle]

Yeah, I think reaching out to convince me like this is a good look for us.

[Bingle]

Soft committing to defending Ali, at this point. I just need to theater my way into being able to do so. Should be able to make the transition tonight, but it'll require some meta and a bit of design theory. Also, math. Fuck math.

[Bingle]

Oh, fuck, didn't see the request here before posting, sorry.

I've been a little out of it today, but I 100% didn't mean to just shoot that without checking.

FWIW, I doubt furtive is quite dumb enough to fake the guilty at the expense of town being able to act, which is what he'd have to do. And if you live until tomorrow it literally clears you when the lie becomes apparent, so it should backfire into making you obvtown.

[Bingle]

you....

this leaves me no where to go but to challenge one of you two youwefhasdjklfkasdl;

ARE YOU KIDDING

Okay, so less drunk now, but thinking about this I think it actually benefits us if furtive tries to fake a guilty on you. It’s pretty easy here to townread you even if he says you lied at least until tomorrow. If he passes on funding, the lie becomes obvious tomorrow when the treasurer gets information different than what he claims they should and we can instalim furtive. If he funds somebody despite lying the lie becomes immediately obvious.

Like, obvious best case scenario is he isn’t an asshat here, but I don’t think even if he is you’re in any danger since the lie by necessity will be caught before tomorrow.

[Bingle]

^to expand: furtive doesn’t have a buddy, so it’s impossible for him to hide funding in a partner. Furtive could claim you went for a smaller loan, but there’s literally no reason for scum to do that. That would be playing pro town, and the exact opposite of a guilty. Furtive could claim you went for a bigger loan, but if it’s a big enough loan to matter it would be confirmable you did so when the town defaulted and no money went forward the next day. The odds of town having exactly $0 in the bank, which is what would need to be the case for that to even potentially get close to your lim, are .25^9 or .0003%. I don’t think we need to play around situations that are less than one in ten thousand odds.

[Bingle]

Gl as treasurer doesn’t preclude killing him. Treasurer has to submit before night anyway.

[Bingle]

skitter or NSG show up and I'm burned. It's not that either of them can read me, it's that both of them will scumread me regardless of what I say.

[Bingle]

JIC that becomes something y'all need to know.

[Bingle]

I don't think we lose, but we definitely have to bus me. I have faith that LLD could endgame off of that bus having set up our distancing like we did, but we absolutely have to go with the LLD endgame.

[Bingle]

This town is so dead.... Like I get that that helps us, but I hate winning like this.

[Bingle]

lmk if you want me to relitigate a townread on you, but townme wouldn't do so unless the wagon on you started to get traction. I also think there's no way GL gets his way here.

[Bingle]

fair enough.

[Bingle]

Left you an opening to wonder why he's not been looking to get your support on anything or reach out if he's really thought scum were leading the thread to oblivion.

[Bingle]

god that 1-2 we did bingle

i hit him with a swing around by answering all his shit mostly honestly and convinced him away and now you're back with the outsider perspective

[Bingle]

Ali, you can accuse GL of trying to distract LLD with emotional manipulation for the capsing thing. Like, the narrative we have is that it put her on tilt and that's why she's been lurking. You can argue that GL, knowing that to be the case, is trying to emotionally compromise LLD to keep her off of her game. Dunno if you want to, because that's a pretty rough argument path, but it is an open one.

[Bingle]

I wouldn't get defeatist yet. There's still a pretty clear path to victory.

[Bingle]

A default wins us the game

They literally can't have. Minimum funding for today is the exact amount of money LLD left to be paid back.

[Bingle]

Maybe?

The budget average should be $150ish which is too high for a force default outright here. If GL claims anything less than 120 that's a force default, which is a pseudo guilty on GL and LLD I think. It's probably just a good play to do the 25% reduction regardless though, because if GL goes for a $200 loan (which he should) we're at a three day delay with average funding results which means vanilla game for the rest of the game.

[Bingle]

I wonder how default will work if everyone is told they get funds before we get to choose to use it. Are we then told we didn't actually get those funds? Would a new loan still go through and add to the debt or would we be unable to take out the new loan? Will Bingle ever stop asking these questions open endedly and actually do something to find out the answers?

[Bingle]

Nah, Bingle can't be scum. He's only keeping track of things he can convincingly push people for without actually pushing them for them.

[Bingle]

town at a minimum makes 60$

Wait, I think I misread the treasurer role PM. If scum don't get taxed we're in an even better position than I thought we were. I was taking townies to mean every living person in the game, including scum.

[Bingle]

Except that if it's only 6 sources of taxes the average tax result drops to less than 120, and it skews towards lower rather than higher.

[Bingle]

the average payment of taxes is $16.75

[Bingle]

That explains why were so 'lucky' on funding.

[Bingle]

Man, apparently I've bussed a lot of townies this game.

[Bingle]

GL thinks I’m naughty though.

[Bingle]

I'm not worried at all. I don't die today and if I die tomorrow I think it cements the win.

I just feel like GL doesn't love me anymore. And after I spent so long eliminating all the people who scumslipped for him.

Nobody appreciates the work I go through for them.

[Bingle]

Why did we make GL treasurer. He’s going to spend forever going over all of the individual options and the game will fucking never end.

[Bingle]

My main concern is in f7 we likely need to be able to present a world view or a game solve that makes sense.

Eh. If by some weird fluke we can't get a single viable mislim in F7, we still win. Like, me/LLD are so antipartner spewed that we could both probably claim scum in the thread and there'd still be doubters as to whether we were aligned. You and I are a little bit linked, but not enough to matter. If GL becomes a problem we can shoot him on the way to F5. If I flip Skrew suddenly looks a whole lot worse for basically living in my pocket this whole game, and he's agency captured to boot. Sheep has the presence and the towncred of a particularly interesting brick wall but he's a cop and no one will question why he was killed, and UNO hasn't been able to argue a coherent point successfully yet, probably because their actual play is lost in the roleplaying politics bit they're doing. Kdowns is LLD's Skrew.

[Bingle]

I mean... It kind of is. There is not a single town player who cannot be miselimmed here.

I don't think it's right, but we could probably win through it.

[Bingle]

There is not a single town player who cannot be miselimmed here.

And furtive jumps in with a readslist to prove my point.

[Bingle]

Ime your biggest issue ali is not knowing when to coast. Like sometimes you just want to let town tear each other apart and not really have much of a presence. I struggle with that too, tbh, because it can be hard to not post when you have the time, but if you notice here I’m doing as little as I functionally can without getting prodded or called out on my absence. Basically I want the town to eliminate one of my ‘partners’ and arguing against that doesn’t really get me anything.

Compare, if I start being super proactive, people are going to spend more time thinking about me which is risky.

[Bingle]

Still fully intending the furtive lim here, just pretending to shop a more solid scumread.

I wish I had advice on how to get GL on board, but he’s never been one to listen to me and I’ve burned all the towncred I have to push lims this game I think.

[Bingle]

Feel free to point out that I’m directing the lim away from a buddy in a vulnerable position towards a buddy unlikely to actually go through if you think that’ll help, LLD. I’m fairly certain I weather that storm, it fits your narrative perfectly, and it falls apart as a reason to scumread me almost immediately.

[Bingle]

I also played out my ‘getting angry’ bit a little awkwardly as potential fuel if we absolutely need it for the lim.

[Bingle]

Let me know if you need me to do more, but I think if I take much more of an antifurtive stance it hurts my spew more than we probably want. I also think that Ali supporting you here reads as more natural.

If you need the support for emotional reasons more than just the strategic ones, let me know. I think we still win if I burn our outs and either way your mental health is more important than the game. <3

[Bingle]

Yeah. The funding thing has had a lot of unintended consequences for game health by keeping the game hostage like this, I think. I think you can safely ignore furtive posts for the time being. Like, if there's one thing I can litigate without it being a problem it's that you ARE actually emotionally effected because it's true and it's a cornerstone of my townread on you, so there's no real drawback to just ignoring furtive's posts at this point.

[Bingle]

I can't be the one to point it out, but furtive's readslist being 85% associatives of unflipped players is a thing you can use to scumread furtive, Ali.

Feel free to include me in your solve, just so long as furtive is as well. There's way more resistance to my elimination than his.

[Bingle]

I step away for one minute to review a setup and someone goes and gets themselves limmed. What is the world even coming to.

[Bingle]

WORDS! Those words are “Well done.”

[Bingle]

I mean, we wait to see what funding we get first. It’d be super funny if I can jk sheep.

[Bingle]

Yeah, it can be rough walking that line between being too rigid and encouraging too much reevaluation.

[Bingle]

No funding.

[Bingle]

They are unaware of the limit and the numbers they submit are diminished by 25%.

Wtf, Shea? Explicitly informing them by pm is pretty much the exact opposite of “they are unaware of the limit”

[Bingle]

Nah, was my fault for assuming and then acting on it. It does give us a bit of an issue and we shouldn’t have used the power, but it’s not really your fault.

[Bingle]

We can only use one scum power each night, so no wiretap.

I'm still down for a sheepshot, tbh.

[Bingle]

According to the OP of this thread it’s a night action, but I suppose we’ll find out if she’s lets us use wiretap as well.

[Bingle]

I don't think you do? Like, even a tracker guilty doesn't save Ali tomorrow, I don't think. And I think the only thing that makes sense here is Ali making the kill regardless of eir team, which means tracker is a pretty useless role tonight. If we can wiretap, I think getting a real result on Uno is the play, if you can sell that you thought you might be wrong there and wanted to shore up the read.

[Bingle]

I think Ali kill sheep LLD tracks Uno or sheep are our best options. Ali getting tracker guiltied is like... barely gain from an LLDTown perspective and there's a weird chance that Uno would track LLD here.

[Bingle]

Not that Uno successfully tracking is likely, but we should play around it regardless.

[Bingle]

Actually... If Uno tracks LLD and gets a result, the best use of the track would be on someone who didn't have a potential night action, so Ali is an okay track. Or GL, I guess. Regardless of who you track we don't really get info out of it, but it might make you look town to track someone scum could never get info out of.

[Bingle]

Yeah… power roles are basically irrelevant at this point.

[Bingle]

WTF even is this game.

Also, LLD always scumreads me. Damn.

[Bingle]

I'm going to lurk for a bit to try and let this Kdowns situation go through. I'm not going to be super reliably around, but I'll keep up on reading and if I need to flex anything in thread feel free to poke me by quoting me in here.

[Bingle]

Nah, I know how to appear to be thinking without actually leading shit. I just don't want to rock the boat.

I need to get GL to convince me to his worldview here because then he won't paranoia that I'm leading him around.

[Bingle]

I don’t trust LLD. She’s been my secret scumread all game. Probably trying to deep wolf and confuse us, Ali.

[Bingle]

that's fair. I already submitted, but you should both do that.

[Bingle]

Just in case.

[Bingle]

Eh. LLD has a point. I think this is justa don't rock the boat moment. We're winning, we don't need to do anything fancy that might blow up in our faces.

[Bingle]

I know. It’s kinda sad. Everyone knows you gotta fight for your right to party.