large normal 243: mafia!!!!! (finished)

[Venmar]

Howdy, been a while for me, will do my best to catch up

[Venmar]

I'd say none of us are under a lot of scrutiny which is good, town is definitely a bit scattered though so idk what wagon will realistically materialize that makes sense to push atm.

[Venmar]

I apologize for going for you Bub, but I feel like me pointing out some of the things you're doing is too obvious to me to not point out, distancing myself from you just feels like the play for me atm.

[Venmar]

Don't know what to make of Cephrir's meltdown tbh lol

[Venmar]

I am so lost at this point

[Venmar]

There's probably some flex for a curious wagon to eventually form with how he's posting, I think Flavor and others are likely to push that thought, hopefully I've planted that idea in Flavors mind lol

[Venmar]

I do agree that Flavor is probably the most ostensible productive townie with how he comes to conclusions, wouldn't be opposed to targeting him N1 even though I think he might be townreading me. Would have to weigh that against the possibility of another townie role protecting or watching him for the same reasons.

[Venmar]

@Bub, I'm not big on coaching but I do think defending stargazer is probably not the play in the long-term, I don't think they've done anything to deserve defense and you defending them could be scum trying to stick up for someone they know is town. Ofc there is no guarantee town will arrive at this conclusion if they get limmed and flip town, but I'm just saying.

I think I'd hope for either a curious or stargazer elim this day at this point, been trying to pivot to one of the two since at this point even I don't know why I'm still sitting on Andante.

[Venmar]

Could also ignore me because I haven't played much in like 3-4 years and I've never been a great scum player tbh, I tend to prefer town 90% of the time, just throwing my thoughts out there for now.

[Venmar]

I honestly was just having the same thoughts; if we elim FL then it will confirm Malcolm, which could be a negative in more than one way since there's players in the game who scumread Malcolm and as long as he isn't confirmed town like via FL's death then he could serve as a distraction. On the other hand I do think FL is the most dangerous player for us now and next day he might try to push Bub, whereas players like Gimli seem to townread Bub while also scumreading Malcolm. Andante is also big proponent for Malcolm scum but they probably get limmed here.

[Venmar]

Wtf happened, I went to work and came home to 14 new pages and Kitty being a flash wagon?

Did Kitty get voted out?

[Venmar]

God that sucks

[Venmar]

Idk if it's cause I'm approaching drunk atm but I feel out of my element lol. I felt like Andante or Skygazer were gonna be the flips this D1 and me coming home every day to like 12 new pages and now one of out teammates suddenly dead is so disorientating

[Venmar]

So is Malcolm and FL mason not a thing? Did FL fakeclaim Mason to reaction test Malcolm?

I am definitely leaning towards a FL shot rn

[Venmar]

Wasn't FL and maybe a few others scumreading you? I think I've gone very under the radar but the pace of the game has left me a bit confused so idk how I'll approach D2 especially since I wasn't around for the Kitty push at all. I think killing FL or someone else who feels strongly about you (bub) could be the play?

[Venmar]

Bubs role implies JK and bodyguard are possible roles and I think FL could end up being an obvious protect if one of those is in the game...

[Venmar]

I could be a target too but I was at work so idk

Maybe CKD is a viable pivot but I havent read pages 82 onwards

[Venmar]

As a TL;DR, what happened between Page 82 and the flip? Like why did Kitty suddenly get offed?

[Venmar]

FL feels like the elim I guess? He's more dangerous alive than dead imo?

[Venmar]

JK is the main concern, bodyguard we at least get a kill.

That said, if we want to do a bit of game theory, I think the odds of a JK are on the lower end since we as a scumteam only had 1 actual PR (Kitty who is now dead), so a JK and their roleblock wouldn't have been put in the setup specifically to offset mafia PR utility.

My wild theory is that the setup might be mostly just VT's and then a neighborizer or two with a scum follower and town follower to potentially run into the neighborizers. FL making the mason claim could also imply (I think Bub or someone hinted at this) that he could've been informed like Bub or he's a neighborizer?

[Venmar]

I'd like Eira to weigh in if possible, but we do still have a few hours till deadline

[Venmar]

Deadline is in barely an hour, in case we don't circle back again I'm gonna drop this, assuming this is how we do a kill;

Vote to Shoot: Flavor Leaf

[Venmar]

Did I just get jailblocked, ffs

I am so dead

[Venmar]

Actually I might've been just visited rather than blocked, but I either got jailed or FL got jailed and saved

[Venmar]

What should I claim if it comes to it, I feel like somekind of a PR is probably the play just in case?

[Venmar]

If I come home to being dead, I'm sorry in advance bub. I'm so rusty and Ive never been a strong scum player to begin with. If I'm still around I'll sit down and do what I can after work.

[Venmar]

I did not expect to come home to the wagon on me having collapsed. Seems like FL is now actively townreading both of us and he feels like I've pocketed and is TReading me despite it. We might have to keep him around now lol.

[Venmar]

We might be able to just ride FL's and Kowah's push on Andante today, hopefully. I feel like keeping Gimli and FL around might be the play since they both are big voices and seem to TR you pretty hard, and FL is vibing with me for the most part and letting me buddy him. Hopefully I can rub Gimli into vibing with me. Andante/Hu feel like possible wagons to pull off and our future kills should probably be players we townread but are unlike to be able to flip on and push like Sky, Enchant, etc?

[Venmar]

Tbh idk, it's possible NJAC is the JK and his action is a "loud action" and it just looks like a visitor. Would explain why we had a no-kill since I would've been blocked. Would also explain why he came out D1 saying "just a gut feeling", which feels like a response from someone who thinks they might've just blocked a shooter rather than a visitor who would've gotten no real info from visiting me?

^ If that's the case, NJAC is basically sitting on some heavy info that implies me as either the killer or the NK target and they're trying to push me without outing themselves as the JK, and I think the former (me being the shooter) is the more likely explanation.

Ofc this is all just theorization because when I last played mafia I never received PMs as either town or scum that I was visited by "loud actions", so idk if regular PR roles like JKs do this by default or not. If they basically never do then yeah, NJAC is probably just a harmless visitor.

Either way it makes shooting NJAC feel like a decent idea unless NJAC is universally townread and he might be the next JK protect if he isn't the JK

[Venmar]

The way NJAC has posted recently makes me feel better that he's likely just a normal visitor rather than secretly a JK who blocked me

[Venmar]

FL is so aggressively town it's nice that he's TReading at least two of us and is deadset on elimmin Andante/Hu Tao, only downside is he seems set on them being scum together and he'll re-evaluate once Andante flips town.

[Venmar]

Debatable, I think town tunnel and game-lead this hard as well if they have the confidence. I think it depends on how FL reacts to the Andante townflip, but yeah maybe that'll be an angle later in the game, idk if D3 will be it though

[Venmar]

Listen Bub and I haven't played let alone wolfed in years, I think this is our first game in a while LOL

[Venmar]

FL working overtime to protect me too

[Venmar]

Not sure who should kill, sheep may be the most suspected but I'm the most likely to be blocked or tracked I think considering what happened with NJAC?

Don't think we try to shoot FL again, with Andante flipping town there's now room for the game to turn against him in future days.

Hu Tao is intriguing if only because they are scumreading all three of us and will continue to be a thorn but idk how much of a threat they are and tbh could still be a lim push for us?

[Venmar]

Gimli would be an okay compromise, I feel like they're solid town for most people and I think he'll default to pushing me now that Andante flipped town.

[Venmar]

I think there could be room to try and let FL cook on D3, he'll get heat for how hard he tunneled Andante, and if we think he'll re-evaluate and be dangerous to us that also makes him a likely protect 2 nights in a row so we could end up NKing again.

[Venmar]

Okay who do we shoot then? I'll let you guys decide if you want.

[Venmar]

Probably only if NJAC flips something other than visitor?

[Venmar]

Idk, it could be a bluff.

I'm okay with a kill on FL or NJAC, I also think someone who is vaguely accepted as town like Enchant or Skygazer could also work but I'm okay with whatever, I think theres pros and cons to more or less every kill.

[Venmar]

Do we know who the loud JK is? I forget

[Venmar]

As for NJAC idk, I think the most likely answer is that he's just a visitor. Can't say I think a loud follower is a role I find likely to exist, and idk, if NJAC actually was a follower he'd have seen that I committed a killing action and unless he thinks I'm a vig idk why he wouldn't be pushing me harder. Slow playing a borderline guilty is just something I wouldn't do as town here if I was him but I'm not bigbrained so idk

[Venmar]

I'm catching up and I'm so confused, town just insists on imploding. First FL against Andante, now Skygazer/STD/Gimli have started a triangle of sus?

[Venmar]

Who are the masons? Furtive and STD?

Yeah idk, STD just nailed the scumteam in his reads post lmao. I think killing the masons is fine since they're reading the game correctly. NJAC, Furtive, STD, Kowah would be my shoot pool since none of them are elimmable imo and like 3 of them scumread 2 or more of us but idk

[Venmar]

Tbh idk what I'm doing

[Venmar]

Bub's elim feels kinda unavoidable atm, idk. I feel like goading on a hammer and committing to the bus to hopefully look like a positive associate but idk

[Venmar]

I wouldn't hammer right this minute, but I'd do what you think comes naturally and is consistent with how you're playing

[Venmar]

Idk if I think STD is the obvious target personally, he's my preferred shot atm since I don't think Bub's flip will change his opinion on either of us

[Venmar]

He probably seems like an obvious shot from our POV lol, idk if he's been a town leader aside from being a mason?

[Venmar]

Idk, tbh if you get elimmed I think my plan is to shoot a thorn in my side like Hu Tao or Ofhrz. Can't say I'm good at PR hunting, idk who it would be but there's probably a level of process of elimmination like it can't be NJAC or Furtive since we know they're Visitor/Mason respectively, I think Gimli/Ofhrz claimed VT when sky did their gambit on him, and I wanna say Sky is a traffic controller or whatever if its to be believed. CKD claimed somekind of an ascetic role which probably makes him as JK less likely. Drew's slot (GIF) claimed bodyguard.

That kinda leaves:

Malcolm
Kowah
Enchant
Hu Tao

I think?

[Venmar]

I can't remember who said they were visited by a loud Jailer tbh

[Venmar]

I can't remember who said they were visited by a loud Jailer tbh

Oh it was Greeting (Furtive)

[Venmar]

Tbh it's confusing because if the JK did in fact visit Greeting/Furtive, it doesn't explain why we failed to get a kill N1 because I shot Flavor. Why we had a no kill N1 kind of remains a mystery if Greeting was telling the truth. Flavor was a regular VT and the setup can't have a roleblocker, doctor, etc, who could've blocked me or otherwise protected Flavor if the JK visited greeting. Two JK's feels like definitely not a thing.

It's possible that Greeting lied and NJAC is the JK and blocked me by jailing me N1, and believes I was the kill target N1 and so has chosen not to push me.

The most likely explanation I think is that Flavor was jailed and thats why my kill didn't go through, I think it's more likely that NJAC is indeed just a visitor.

In which case the JK is probably someone who townread Flavor enough to protect him after the Kitty flip, but someone who didn't like him enough after the Andante flip to protect him again N2.

Hu Tao kind of comes to mind based off a post like #3348 after D3 started.

[Venmar]

I'm sorry Sheep, bussing you just felt like the most natural thing and idk if I have a way to actually justify hopping off of your wagon.

I think the most likely outcome is that if you get elimmed I'm probably next in a day or two, I don't have a lot of confidence in myself to pull this off lol.

[Venmar]

What, no don't do that. The game can see Bub's role to know a Vig isn't possible.

[Venmar]

Oh actually I just looked at the flip and his role PM wasn't linked so the game doesn't know the specifics

[Venmar]

Claiming vig could work, there's some credibility to it since GIF's slot claimed bodyguard and Kitty was bp. Might take something big like that to hopefully get people to back off

But idk, I'd say do what you think is best or what your gut says

[Venmar]

Probably Hu or NJAC, yeah. I still think NJAC is more likely to just be a visitor, I feel like he would've pushed me hard if he blocked me and saw there was no kill.

Or maybe NJAC indeed is the JK and blocked me but he thinks I was the night kill target rather than blocked scum and has given me a pass, idk. Greeting's claim of being jailed N1 contradicts everything tbh and it's quite confusing.

[Venmar]

Or maybe Greeting bigbrained and just lied about being visited by a JK to confuse scum?

[Venmar]

yeahh


If I had considered necessary to reveal more info, I would have done it already. I'm going to be NKed soon, so Town will see the whole picture anyway.

Idk, could be a comment from a JK who thinks they'll be shot for having blocked me N1, or it could just be a visitor trying to attract attention?

Regardless, for either or both of us, Hu or NJAC is probably the shot next night?

[Venmar]

Would be funny if the JK actually did jail Sky and could clear you by accident.

[Venmar]

Guess we wait for someone to confirm

Reaction wise, it might not actually be Hu. Might be NJAC, will be interesting to see how they respond

[Venmar]

If the JK actually is NJAC though and you get limmed then I auto-lose cause then I think NJAC just jails me again to see if N1 was a fluke, sees a no-kill, and then just sends me.

[Venmar]

I think my plan right now is to just hopefully let town elim Malcolm without me joining that wagon myself.

[Venmar]

Yeah I'm okay with shooting NJAC, I feel like they might be the JK since there has to be an explanation for why we couldn't kill N1 and NJAC blocking me makes sense, even if it's contradicted by Greeting saying they were visited N1 by the JK...

I feel like if NJAC actually is the JK though I am basically dead since people will realize there was no kill on N1 the day NJAC visited me.

[Venmar]

Hu claimed VT, which if we consider credible I guess means she's not worth shooting to find the JK

By PoE, if we assume NJAC is a visitor and trust other players claims, JK could be Enchant or Kowah. Enchant would be the better shot than Kowah

[Venmar]

Did anybody aside from Greeting D2 claim to have been visited by a loud JK that you can remember?

[Venmar]

Isn't Drew a bodyguard? And didn't he confirmed he was visited by NJAC? Would make him unlikely to be the JK in that case if you think he has the simple modifier as well.

[Venmar]

Lol I didn't even see this page when typing that reply

[Venmar]

ok so how stupid would it be of me to claim as the 2nd JK

[Venmar]

Very stupid actually since furtive claimed to be visited N1 and I was jailed N1 lol

[Venmar]

At least we got the JK! Idk why we didn't shoot NJAC sooner but it has kind of worked out, the loud modifier really threw me off combined with out info that visitors were a good posssibility.

[Venmar]

I think I'll just legit claim vt if it comes to it

[Venmar]

If any of my teammates are reading this, I apologize, I'm quite dejected and am not confident in being able to do any kind of a comeback. I've had a bad bad game.

Shoot: CKD

Mostly just cause I can't deal with his smugness rn

[Venmar]

Not from me idc