The Hart Foundation Mafia

[Leonshade]

Hi! I've got 11.

I assume your PM also mentions this vote boost?

[Leonshade]

Yeah. It might actually be for the best that our entrances are so far apart, easier for us to avoid using the ability (and in general, connecting us will be harder).

I don't know if this setup is conducive to survival, but since it's multiball I can at least genuinely scumhunt, so that might get me townread.

In general, my scum play is at its best when I get into a town mindset and just naturally react to things the way town!Leon would see them. That means that I don't go out of my way to bus or distance, but I'll (try to) treat you like any other player, so if you post something scummy I'll point it out. If you've got some strats you want to try, I'm open to hearing them out, but I think at least in this setup, the best thing to do is to simply look town and try to survive.

[Leonshade]

A bit of setup spec: Our scumteam is based on an existing team, so at least some of the other scumteams might be, as well. And those teams might be having the same thoughts and combing the flavor list for scumteam possibilities

I wonder if every scumteam is two people, or if there are more. Maybe there's a three-player scumteam without any PRs, maybe there's third parties with some PR.

[Leonshade]

Not a bad idea. Especially if we can then get him to flip first (unless he's also scum, then it might look bad for us).

I was scum against DodgeTheSaint before, I pushed on him then so I might TR him here.

P-edit: I didn't even think of that, would be pretty nuts. Trying to figure this setup out might be too hard before flips. Maybe town is a minority here and there's lots of scum.

[Leonshade]

Due to town having vengekills, and due to the night kill being randomly given to one non-town member each night, I would expect most scumteams to be looking to lynch scum and nightkill town.

I don't want to say the above in the main thread yet, because it might reveal that I'm thinking from a scum perspective, but it's influencing my reads.

[Leonshade]

Alright, who are you thinking of voting during your entrance? I'm thinking Math might be scum after that hop on KMD, but it'd look weird if you didn't vote for the one you were scumreading in the pre-game thread.

[Leonshade]

Alright.

am i the only one who finds it hilarious that when Titus and Math are is the same game they just tunnel each other lol

Ok, this actually reminded me of why Narna fakevigged me in the Locker room. It was right after I said I would be skimming on the ring with all the Titus vs Nero & RC vs Math duels, and then said it could be called a tag-team fight between Nero+Math vs Titus+RC.

This is interesting, do you think that Narna's real reason for fakevigging Almost is because Narna is scum in a two-player team and he thought Almost scumslipped? I actually don't think Almost would scumslip this, so the same thing kinda makes me townread Almost.

am i the only one who finds it hilarious that when Titus and Math are is the same game they just tunnel each other lol

Ok, this actually reminded me of why Narna fakevigged me in the Locker room. It was right after I said I would be skimming on the ring with all the Titus vs Nero & RC vs Math duels, and then said it could be called a tag-team fight between Nero+Math vs Titus+RC.

Why can't it be Nero+RC and Math+Titus?

This, too, to a lesser extent. Basically I'm thinking whether someone's unconsciously slipping that they're looking for two-player teams.

[Leonshade]

I didn't, I don't think it's a natural assumption to make. Even if someone had that idea on their own, I would expect them to present it as setup spec, rather than taking it as a given.

[Leonshade]

I was also planning on doing more, but hell, I'll take it.

Ideally we'd hit scum so we're more likely to get the kill again, but someone who's not likely to be lynched anytime soon. But I don't know who that person would be right now.

[Leonshade]

I'm paranoid that Gamma is a supersaint or similar, his entire play looks too jester-like to be real. Let's avoid hammering him.

[Leonshade]

Nah, four votes still needed. I don't expect him to get quickhammered, I'm sure many have the same reluctance I have.

[Leonshade]

That's possible. There's definitely a lot of teams, too big a coincidence that two teams got hit in the first two kills.

Until there's a town flip, we should probably avoid making ourselves appear as big threats, in case the theory is correct.

[Leonshade]

Nice. I also liked what you said about the Gamma wagon being filled with scum.

[Leonshade]

Chara isn't voting anyone.

Think Chara's scum?

[Leonshade]

It's not risky as long as we're smart about it. As long as it'd make sense for town!Firescreamer to use the ability, it's fine.

[Leonshade]

Works for me. massive is also a low-info kill.

[Leonshade]

One of us flipping will make it easy to narrow the other down anyway. It's going to be hard for us to avoid the same wagon forever, so that claim makes the doublevote more plausible. Plus it's essentially an executioner ability for a guy nicknamed "Excellence of Execution".

If we do use it, you should probably claim it's a one-shot at first, to avoid drawing the NK. Then, if we need to use it later, you can claim that it's multi-shot (since PRs hiding their true number of shots is nothing unusual, this shouldn't be suspicious).

[Leonshade]

Yeah I should probably rename it excellence of execution right? Or keep it as the sharpshooter?

Check out the role PMs of the flipped guys, their abilities didn't have any flavor at all. So maybe you simply have the ability to execute.

[Leonshade]

Haha, massive gets the easy win.

I kinda screwed up by joining the Gamma wagon, now if I flip, ten people are cleared from being my buddy. At the same time, staying off the top wagon every day isn't viable, either.

I think massive being neighbors suggests that if not scum, every player in the game might be linked to a ither player in some way. This coukd be bad for us in the case of a massclaim later in the game. Though I wouldn't expect most scumteams to reveal their buddy, too risky.

[Leonshade]

We could do that, but we can't claim it in public unless absolutely necessary. Lovers make for prime NK targets in this setup.

[Leonshade]

I now think that in addition to Gamma slipping on two-man teams, both Almost and Narna likely slipped on knowing about two-man teams in the thread. I no longer think that makes them scum, but it's something I could bring up in the thread.

[Leonshade]

We could still point to all the role PMs of the people who have flipped.

[Leonshade]

Sounds good. I'm jumping on the Chick wagon since I was on it in the early game.

[Leonshade]

Doesn't look like much happened over the weekend?

[Leonshade]

Wow, rival teams are dying off so fast.

I don't have anyone in particular I want to kill off, just avoid anyone who will be a major lynch candidate for tomorrow. PV and Maria had me in their scumpool, so maybe avoid them.

[Leonshade]

Works for me.

[Leonshade]

Pepto's actually L-2. Claiming that he's L-1 might later get someone to think that my buddy was already on the Pepto wagon, in case I flip.

[Leonshade]

Huh.

Based on the wording of both Pepto's PM as well as the other two, Pepto was a traitor. Maybe the other teams also have traitors? Maybe we have one?

[Leonshade]

Four teams of three would make sense.

[Leonshade]

Never mind, just read his PM again. So he left his partner and joined team Blue.

But why would he do that? His buddy might be obvscum?

[Leonshade]

No worries! It was fun playing with you, have a good one!

[Leonshade]

Hi!

The main thing is that 8 people are dead, 1 town (which your slot NK'd) and 7 scum. We didn't win the night kill lottery tonight, so there's still scum left.

massive was a lyncher on Gamma Emerald, who was lynched D2. Massive already won the game, but he's still in the game and he's part of the night kill lottery, too. We won't be able to push a lynch on him, so I think we should NK him the next time we win the lottery.

Both of us are common townreads, there hasn't been a wagon or serious suspicion on either slot, yet. There's a couple players that are taking most of the focus (mastina, Tywin) and since there's so many dead scum, we should be able to avoid suspicion as long as we play it cool.

We should keep staying on separate wagons so that our vote boost ability doesn't trigger. I'll probably vote for Tywin tomorrow, so maybe just play as a clueless replacement until you find a wagon you want to jump on.

[Leonshade]

Could you please tell me how my slot is being read? Who townreads me and who scumreads me?

You seem to be a general townread. mastina and KMD come to mind as people who've explicitly townread you, and few really seem to disagree with the TR. The only one who's had your slot in their lynch pool is McMenno, and that only happened once FS started lurking, shortly before they asked to be replaced. I think the replacement/site flake will serve as explanation for his lurking.

[Leonshade]

The locker room was the pre-game thread. Since people came into the game two at a time, the locker room was where people could post before they entered the game thread. The thread is private, so you can't see it anymore.

I don't know why there's been so many scum crosskills. Early on, it was smart to crosskill to have a better chance of controlling the kill, but I don't think it's a good idea, anymore.

[Leonshade]

One thing that came to mind is that we probably shouldn't try to distance from each other in this game. If one of us dies, at this point it's going to be easy to narrow the partner down by PoE due to our ability.

I think we should largely ignore each other, or at least not go for any scum theater. If one of us comes under a lot of heat, we should play this like we're neighbors/lovers. I think people wouldn't expect scum to claim neighbors with their buddy to stop them from a lynch, since no other scumteam has had the same downside we have.

Otherwise, just play it cool. Scumhunt and look town, but try not to draw too much attention, so you don't draw the NK.

[Leonshade]

You seem to be doing well, that's good.

My main scumreads are Tywin, followed by LUV and Chickadee. LUV has been coasting and Chick's play has been pretty opportunistic, I'm not as certain of them as I am of Tywin, but I'd guess that at least one of the two is scum.

I'm less certain of my townreads, since even people who I was townleaning (Titus, KMD) have flipped scum. I can see where you're coming from with Almost being town, but do note that he's really good at faking his town tone as scum. I think this is Maria's town game as well. I had a townread on McMenno at one point, but I'm losing confidence in that read. Scum!McMenno is a total ninja compared to town!McMenno's mostly ninja play, and McMenno in this game has mostly made the occasional snide remarks at people, which is well within the scope of his scumgame.

Not sure on mastina, but I don't want to push for her lynch, at least not for the next couple of days.

Not lying about my unwillingness to read right now, got a busy couple of days ahead of me (schoolwork + moving). Should be back to normal after that.

[Leonshade]

I probably should've declared V/LA a couple days ago. Should be back to normal Saturday.

[Leonshade]

No surprisevthere.

You got the kill? I don't.

Unless Pepto was Titus' buddy, there's still at least two scum left.

[Leonshade]

Who do you think would be a good lynch for tomorrow? We still want to lynch scum as much as possible, to avoid risking a vengekill.

I don't disagree with any of your scumreads. Scumreads are a bit of a crapshoot in this game, but I'm not townreading anybody you have as scum.

[Leonshade]

I think I'll start tomorrow by pushing either Chickadee or LUV.

[Leonshade]

Welcome back!

[Leonshade]

I feel a bit bad for how hard mastina seems to TR you, but I think she'll respect your scum play a lot.

I doubt she'd be going this far with buddying you, if it wasn't real.

[Leonshade]

Assuming that Chickadee gets lynched, if we got the kill, who do you think we should shoot tonight? We want to get rid of the other scum ASAP, but we should also keep scummy people around for mislynches, so people won't have time to start getting paranoid.

[Leonshade]

I think Majiffy would be easier to lynch than LUV. Mastina TRing Majiffy might be the only thing that would stop that.

I don't want to shoot McMenno, he's the only one SRing me.

[Leonshade]

I think Majiffy would put up less of a fight.

Though Majiffy is more of a low info kill, since he only seems to have one read.

[Leonshade]

Guess we might as well who to pick when the time comes. Chickadee's lynch isn't set in stone, anymore.

[Leonshade]

You can still hammer Chick, if need be. We just need one more vote on her.

[Leonshade]

Kuroi already answered that the person will be put to L+1 on the vote count, so I cannot hammer.

Oh

[Leonshade]

Yeah, I read it. I'm not really worried about most of his points, but I want to put together a good response and that will take a while.

[Leonshade]

I don't know what me moving onto the gerry wagon and you moving to the Chickadee wagon would accomplish. Chick is just as close to being lynched, and we have to try and justify the moves. I think for today, the best thing to do is to just stay the course. One of the two wagons is bound to go through eventually. If the deadline inches too close, we can do some maneuvering. Until then, just try to commit to the tunnel.

It doesn't look like anybody left in the game is doing wagon analysis. I don't know why they would, with the teams being so small and plentiful. Unless we're really obviously inconsistent with our reasoning, I don't think people will catch on to us just based on our votes.

This is why I think we need to keep the neighbor/lover claim as a backup. We might have to cash in on our ability eventually. Us having a triple vote with the Lover drawback would explain why we've stayed on separate wagons and kept quiet about our connection. It does make us an NK target, so we should only claim it if we need to, and if we're certain that we control the NK. If one of us dies, the other will get caught anyway, so the drawback to the fakeclaim isn't that big.

[Leonshade]

I mean, we probably couldn't claim Lovers until around LYLO/MYLO, otherwise the lack of an NK on us would look suspicious.

[Leonshade]

Though I guess at that point we could just vote and win?

[Leonshade]

Alright, I'll see what I can do. I'll do stuff in the main thread tonight.

[Leonshade]

Scum!gerry fooled me recently (Inception Mafia), so I should be able to leverage that history to get paranoid about the slot. I don't think the shift will be difficult, I can simply claim that I haven't seen a reason to focus on the slot until now.

[Leonshade]

I've set myself up to be paranoid of gerry, let me know what you think of my post.

[Leonshade]

It's cool. Remember that you need to pick your prod up in the main thread.

[Leonshade]

That's a shame, I hope you get well soon.

On the bright side, you have an excuse to stay stagnant in your reads.

[Leonshade]

You've done a terrific job, and I hope you get better and can keep playing. No need to feel bad if you have to replace out, it's just a forum game at the end of the day. You replaced into this team being in a decent position, and elevated it into a great one. This team should be able to go far, thanks to your contribution.

[Leonshade]

Gingie replacing in means that PV's slot is an actual part of the game, now.

It might be too mean to NK Ginngie right away, though I'm worried how her replacing in affects the position we've carved out for ourselves. But NKing the replacement is a statement that scum is happy with the current state of the reads, and afraid of a fresh perspective. We'll just have to play with her, for now.

[Leonshade]

Responding to this after exam. Generally agree with your plan, just gotta work out the details.

[Leonshade]

Thank you!

Well the exam took long and I'm going out now, so I'll respond tomorrow. Glad Chick finally got lynched, I bet she would've ignited people tonight if she'd survived.

[Leonshade]

gerry will hammer if no one else will.

Plan looks good at first glance.

[Leonshade]

Not meant as a slight against you, Leonshade you are a first-rate scumbud.

Aww!

Lynch/NK plan.

It's gin/mastina/Maria/you at the monent.

[Leonshade]

Almost and Titus both hit the PGO, so that should be a starting point.

Probably not mastina, as Titus was already tunneling her when she died.

[Leonshade]

Almost was the bus driver. PGO triggers if you target them, so Almost targeting the PGO is what killed him.

I would guess that the PGO is scim, PGO plus vengekill is too much.

[Leonshade]

Almost had that scumread on gerry for a long time, would he have tried to bus drive gerry at least once before tonight? Or would he have been more interested in having a read to push?

[Leonshade]

Probably not LUV, when he was the designated lynch for today. And if it is LUV, we'll know soon enough.

I think it's in gin/McMenno/Dodge.

[Leonshade]

Dodge was interacting with Titus about her potentially being a lyncher the day before she died, would that have made her decide to track him? Seems like a more likely target than McMenno or PV.

[Leonshade]

Oh, the PGO was just LUV, nice!

But I don't have the kill, hope you got it.

[Leonshade]

Wow, you're putting in a lot of work. I'll need to step up to keep up.

I think that mastina, followed by you is actually likely to be the kill for any of the scum who are likely to be lynched the next day, or the day after. With this many scum, simply shooting to whittle down the NK lottery isn't enough for anyone who's being suspected, they also have to break up the "townbloc" in hopes of derailing the current plan. As mastina is the leader and organizer of the bloc, I think a scum like McMenno or Ginngie will see killing her as the likeliest way of throwing the current plan into disarray. Doubly so if mastina flips scum, as that will cast doubt on the verity of her reads, as well.

I think that with the gerry->McMenno plan, Ginngie is actually not likely to shoot Dodge. You have her down as "doesn't care", but she's actually very likely to care. She's scum in a game with her master, she'll want to win. If both McMenno and Dodge are dead, Gin is next in line to be lynched, so shooting Dodge would only hurt her. Her plan will be to delay that as long as possible. She might not shoot mastina due to their relationship (though I think she'd shoot her if she was that as her best chance of surviving), but in that case I think she'd most likely shoot you, especially if she thought you were scum. You flipping scum would basically destroy the townbloc.

If not you or mastina, I would expect Gin to shoot who she sees as the likeliest person to be scum in the townbloc. That might be me, as while I think my performance here has been better than the other scumgames I've been with Gin in, I've had lots of lurky periods in this game, especially now that I have to do so.

So I think Gin is the likeliest person out of the players remaining to shoot one of us. Does that mean that we should shoot her? It does rob us of an easy lynch D9, so we'll have to gauge whether it's worth the risk.

[Leonshade]

N7 Gin - D8 McMenno

7 - Gerryoat - "Cowboy" Bob Orton
11. Leonshade - Jim "The Anvil" Neidhart
24. MariaR - The Rock
25. Priscila - Bret "The Hitman" Hart
27. DodgeTheSaint - Owen Hart
28. Mastina - "Mr. Perfect" Curt Hennig

gerry - Wild card, no idea who he'd shoot
Maria - Agreed that he might shoot me.
Dodge - Agreed that he wouldn't shoot me. Probably wouldn't shoot Gerry in this scenario, either, as he has him as an SR. Might shoot you or mastina?
mastina - Impossible to say, most likely won't shoot a core member of the "townbloc" to keep her narrative going. Will want to whittle down who she truly believes is the remaining scum.

[Leonshade]

You think that Pepto was buddies with PV/Ginngie? It would explain why he chose to switch, because his buddy was a known lurker. In that case, once Ginngie flips, it will be public knowledge that there's at least three other scum remaining. That would leave room for four remaining townies. The two of us, Maria, mastina.

By the way, I don't think Chara was the ONLY townie. Kuroi said that town is a team, which means at least two people. Massive, despite being neighbors with Chara, didn't count as part of its team. There would also be no point to Chara having a venge, if Chara's death meant a town loss. It could be that Town is a two-person team like the others, so there's one remaining town (Maria? mastina?)

[Leonshade]

The key to our survival is both control of the lottery, as well as the survival of the "townbloc". Every member of the bloc knows that the bloc benefits them. Gerry is the only one who I see shooting inside the bloc, but I don't know if he's actually SRing anyone inside it.

So tonight's shot should be either gerry or Gin. I'm personally leaning towards Gin. In addition to considering her a bigger risk to the bloc, Gin is the shot that is more likely to be made, if we assume that the townbloc really was town. Let's say that mastina really is town and believes her reads: seeing Gin gets shot merely bolsters her theory that her remaining reads are correct, and that the person who made the shot is one of her other scumreads. Seeing gerry get shot might serve to get her paranoid that someone else in the bloc is scum as well, trying to take advantage of her lynching plan to keep the game going for as long as possible.

[Leonshade]

We should discuss this once you get back. One more thing to note is that mastina has a reputation for a strong, meticulously thought out scumgame. If she's scum, it's possible that this entire bloc is just a narrative to keep her alive for as long as possible, while keeping her other scumreads calm and coasting, until she can get rid of them.

However, even if scum, I don't think she currently has a reason to think what we think, that there might be only one townie remaining. Our team hasn't been revealed yet. If her partner's dead, she only has reason to think that there's three remaining scum. If she's in an as-of-yet unrevealed team, she still only has reason to suspect three others, for now.

I truly don't think that she'd interact with you in the way she has if she wasn't being sincere, so I think that her TR of you is legit, at the very least.

[Leonshade]

Deadline's not over yet, right? No selection yet, talking things through.

[Leonshade]

Mariar will think "Shoot gerry, lynch Leonshade, shoot Priscila, win."
Gerry will think "Shoot Mariar, lynch Leonshade, shoot Priscila, win."
Mastina will think "Shoot gerry, lynch Leonshade, shoot Priscila, win."

No?

Hmm, probably.

Maria might think the reverse (shoot Leon, lynch gerry) but I agree with the other two.

[Leonshade]

Maria and gerry are friends and MIGHT refrain from shooting each other. But I don't know how easy they'd find it to get the other one lynched.

Maria would probably be harder to lynch than gerry, so I think gerry would shoot Maria in that situation. But Maria might fancy her chances of lynching gerry over me, it's a 50/50 that she'd shoot me.

[Leonshade]

But you're probably correct that our win comes down to luck, no matter what we do. We just need to make sure that we're dealing ourselves the best possible hand.

[Leonshade]

I don't think it's obvious that the Dodge kill comes from inside the townbloc. I think it's a kill that would be just as likely to come from either McMenno or Ginngie, killing the most likely scum that isn't likely to be lynched before them.

Only problem with the Dodge kill is that he's expressed suspicion on me. But I think that's easily handwaved away in this setup.

[Leonshade]

Alright, I approve of a Dodge kill. It doesn't hurt our narrative or lynch order, and it should keep everyone coasting for at least another day. Then it just comes down to the night kill.

@Kuroi: Please wait until Priscila gives final approval or the deadline comes before starting the Day.

[Leonshade]

I feel good about this. There isn't a perfect play here, but I think this is our best one.

[Leonshade]

If there's an opportunity to hammer before you get on, I'll take it. Otherwise I'll stay out until you come back on.

[Leonshade]

Hmm, McMenno is Andre the Giant. He might be Loved?

Just in case, don't assume that your hammer ends the day (though you may pretend that you think it does).

[Leonshade]

They'll know that you weren't lying. We'll get Kuroi to release this thread ASAP.

[Leonshade]

One of Maria and mastina has to be scum anyway. I'm sure they're not lying, either.

[Leonshade]

They'll know that you weren't lying. We'll get Kuroi to release this thread ASAP.

Oh god... they are going to be reading all this...

We can also keep it private. Your call, I have no reason to care.

[Leonshade]

What if I claim one-shot BP scum to avoid the NK?

[Leonshade]

And then we blitz Gin tomorrow?

[Leonshade]

Eh, probably too risky.

[Leonshade]

Ohhhhhhh boy

[Leonshade]

So we should be the only team remaining. We want to get through tomorrow without revealing that fact.

[Leonshade]

We can brute force a lynch if need be, but then we NEED to win the night kill lottery.

[Leonshade]

Hopefully the fact that I recommended lynching you would make people think we aren't?

Possibly. Hard to say what people are thinking right now. I have no idea who's going to die. I would expect that now, whoever's perceived as the strongest player by the killer is going to die.

[Leonshade]

Things are about to get exciting!

[Leonshade]

I don't even know what me dying means for my wincon anymore. You're already confscum

But the numbers game and our ability to blitz give us an advantage over the others, unless they have some useful PRs left.

[Leonshade]

Wait, do I not win if Priscila wins?

[Leonshade]

Oh

[Leonshade]

So I have to make the first shot of the bragging rights -portion of the game.

I'd like to avenge Priscila. It looks like Ginngie was hinting at taking the shot in the thread, but I'm not sure.

I'll keep the fact that I have the kill hidden for now.

[Leonshade]

Alternatively I could've told the truth, and simply made the deal for one of the friend groups to take me to LYLO, but that feels more like extortion, but there would be no guarantee that they would honor the deal, and the friend of who I shot would shoot me for sure. Instead of being the bad guy with the gun, I'll try to set myself up as opportunistic yet sympathetic, while hopefully getting everyone to believe that I didn't make the shot. Plus, this way I'm making myself into the informed minority again.

I'll probably make the shot later tonight.

[Leonshade]

One-Shot Day Commute: Leon

I was just trying to let her see you again!