Mini Normal 1963 Mafia PT
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I actually made a conscious decision to not mention either of you in my first few posts for a very specific reason - a game I played with wicked included a successful use of a tell that mafia when they list a bunch of names early on tend to list at least one scumbuddy, so I’m subverting that on the off chance he thinks about it later.
I’m not afraid to distance or bus but I think in the current ms meta it’s still generally better not to, so I’ll likely avoid really bussing.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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nah it's fine i literally caught him scumslipping so >.>
i'm pretty sure i'd tunnel him here as town and can likely get away with it so i am going to just tunnel him for a while most likely. If he does say something townish then i'll flip because i can probably make a flip on Wossi look pretty good if he gives me something townish to work with.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Maybe. But if people argue that scum are parked on the wagon, then there's a natural counterargument that there must be some reason for scum being parked on the wagon, i.e. one of the competing wagons over the course of the day (probably Lalendra but maybe Wossi or Chip) was on scum, and none of them were.
That said I'm sure you canpotentiallyget away with new trepidation like skitter has if you want but I don't think you need to. I certainly can't since I've used his recent play to double down.-
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wavemode: Had pretty good if not stellar reads earlier on (post 327 calls Seph town, says he'd be willing to lynch TIAM and maybe me). Recently just wants to kill serg. lots of vague suspicion directed his way. Probably a bad nightkill but not awful, could frame serg.
Lalendra: suspicious of Seph but not really the others and obviously has a lot of suspicion on her. Bad nightkill.
Wickedestjr: possibly a decent choice if we want to not stir anything up, but ultimately he's a possible future mislynch. Actually with the way he's playing it wouldn't surprise me if he's a power role trying to lay lowish. Don't really remember what his reads are and can't pick them out at a glance. Probably still vaguely suspicious of Wossi.
iDanyboy: probably a mislynch. Middling reads (TIAM Is near the bottom of his list along with Wossi, but seph was near the top and I was fairly near the top). Shrug.
Chip Butty: top tier of reads is {me, sephiroth, dany} though TIAM is lowish. But not especially notable in any way I can think of? Not sure, could be a possible kill who the fuck knows.
skitter30: doc bait, possibly. Had all scum in top half of her reads list, but wouldn't surprise me if she takes a step back and re-evaluates after the Mulch townflip. Probably a mediocre nightkill because of a combination of probably-VT + possible doc target + reads.
Flubbernugget: lurky since mulch came so unclear reads. Scumreads lalendra still probably. Shrug. Could be an okay kill if we have no one in particular else that looks desirable.
Sergtacos: lol imagine the town's reaction if we killed him. Probably VT. Lurky, called mulch town but wasn't actually applying pressure in any direction so yet again, :shrug:.
Wossi: At the moment, this is where my gut says the kill should go. We still have him pinned as a likelyish power role for his reaction to the pressure, I don't think he's a likely doc target in particular, and it seems like fucking everyone who was scumreading him has changed their mind or at least softened their stance. I don't think he's an easy mislynch to swing at this point with so many voices making a chorus that he's town, and etc. Seems like the right choice.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I think it's more likely that we both make it to the end.
I do think we kill wicked. There are lots of ways to frame the kill as being things other than seph-is-scum, in particular he's fairly town now for his TIAM vote and push, and it could implicate Chip just as much as seph since he was also in Wicked's bottom few.
We then lynch TIAM, and then we have a few choices; we probably kill skitter then just since she's active and easily could reconsider etc. And we can always focus our own NK speculation on her kill. I think killing anyone else might look suspicious. But I think we can get away with shooting wicked.
Definitely a good thing that Lalendra was a PR.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I’ll think about it but yeah it could be p much anyone. It is lovely being able to scumhunt as scum though ~~
Money is very strongly on the sk being either a strongman or a bulletproof, since they are directly countered by both Lalendra and Wossi. Actually it’s quite possible that Lalendra blocked the sk n1.-
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I give it something like 95-5 odds of him being a real vig, actually. Depends on wave's claim though to a degree.
Town only has FBI agent, roleblocker and vig claimed so far. If Chip is a serial killer, then they have literally one power role (roleblocker) that works against the mafia and roleblocker is a pretty damn mediocre role against a 3-person scumteam. Even if wave claims, say, watcher, i'd still guess he's a real vig pretty strongly. 3 power roles is the sort of bare minimum for a setup to be considered balanced at 3:10, and at that point all of the power roles have to be pretty solid and scum has to have no or very little power, and FBI agent doesn't count as a power role effectively because it's useless against mafia and so doesn't weigh in the balance of the setup in terms of town vs mafia.
I'm not actually going to say all of that in-thread probably though~~~~~~~~-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Nope, probably no doctor, this makes sense. Gunsmith and vig are both very strong roles (specifically since there are no false negatives for the gunsmith), full roleblocker is like medium tier, fbi agent probably has a gun and serves as a false positive for the gunsmith but confirmable-ish role via the roleblocker and also throws some doubt on the vig, setup makes sense now.
Doctor was sort of just a vague guess; this makes perfect sense. TIAM gets lynched today, tonight we kill serg and chip will shoot someone. That leaves it at 2:3 or 1:4 tomorrow depending on if chip's shot lands on scum. Either way, someone will be lynched, and at that point the game will either be 1:3 or it'll be over, and if it's 1:3 then we have two options: shoot chip, which is the better option if chip decides to shoot that night (if he shoots a townie we'll just win), or we shoot skitter and if chip doesn't shoot we can frame him as an SK.
Game will be tricky though. We need two mislynch/miskills. skitter/serg/chip are probably not really viable targets to mislynch anymore. Basically, this game is going to come down to which one of the four of {implosion, sephiroth, wavemode, flubber} the town decides looks towniest.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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It's not extremely hard per se. I think at this point if town were to do things randomly, it's actually just about 50-50. Which is a bit annoying because I feel like the town has done pretty poorly up to this point, and the only thing that's gone their way is TIAM quickhammering and making himself scummy and even then he ate a gunsmith investigation after that. We just need to appeal to skitter, basically. She's the one whose reads will decide this game at this point. I'm going to step up a bit more tomorrow most likely. Or possibly during the rest of today. We both need to make ourselves obvtown as much as we can. I know she said she's throwing her old reads out, but we can still probably appeal to our early games and possibly our interactions with TIAM.
I'm going to make a post today probably that will just like lay all of this out in thread bc that's what i'd do as town and I think bringing clarity to the game will earn me some town points. From there, it'll be a rather direct matter of convincing Chip to shoot/skitter to lynch flub and/or wave.
I'll also bring up the skitter-could-be-a-scum-doctor perspective at some point but i'm not going to push it since i've been calling her town.-
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Big, big mistake from town telling chip to holster tonight if tiam flips scum. This gives us the very alluring option of shooting chip, and letting Serg get another gunsmith result, but at the cost of the town's additional mislynch. Town effectively will have to either pick the correct one scum out of three people or the correct one town out of three people correctly to win (depending on whether Serg gets an innocent or a guilty result), instead of being able to pick either of two correct townies out of 4 people.-
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So this is basically assuming the town is competent/trusts chip, and also assuming chip doesn't shoot tonight since that was the stated plan, but here's how everything likely plays out.
If we kill serg, the gunsmith:
Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed vig. They lynch, and they will realize that if they mislynch (or even if they lynch town) that the vig should be shooting that night to put the game back in odds.
Mathematically, this means the town will get three kills (d4 lynch, n4 vig, d5 lynch), each of which they will be making with the knowledge of the previous flip. If they kill both town we win, if they kill both scum we lose. EV-wise, this give us a 50% chance of winning, as these three kills will either be 2town1scum or 2scum1town with equal likelihood. It's a bit tricky to predict what will happen here because it depends on the order of kills but any conceivable town v scum 1v1 in the final day is possible.
If we kill chip, the vig:
Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed gunsmith with 1 gunsmith result.
If that gunsmith result is on one of us, town lynches that one of us and we are left in MYLO with 1 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed, and likely skitter just decides between the three and we can directly appeal to her/argue at that point and both of us have pretty solid rhetorical skills so I think this is not a bad situation to be in; the difficult part will be associations, but I think each of us has been careful to leave enough associations that lead away from the other or can be interpreted both ways that we could get through it. It just depends how town interprets things ultimately. I doubt he'll investigate me since he gave me as a townread but he might just because skitter sort of implied that she wants that. If I get guiltied you'll probably have to argue for wave being my partner, if you get guiltied I'll probably have to waver between the two.
If that gunsmith result is on a townie and the town trusts the result, we are left with 2 scum vs 1 unconfirmed, all three of these people arguing that the other pair of them is the scumteam. Town lynches in this group, and if they hit scum then we're left with 1v1 mylo-but-effectively-just-lylo the next day. Of course, it's possible that the town won't trust the result fully because scum doctor is entirely possible in this setup. But if we assume worst case is that they unconditionally trust the gunsmith results, worst case here might be a clear on wavemode. Suddenly you have to argue for a me + Flubber team which is somewhat... ludicrous, as I really made a mistake yesterday by trying to push him and I tried to curtail that near the end of the day. But you can probably make that argument and I can argue for you + flubber just fine. A clear on flubber means I have to argue for you + him and make an awkward turn on Flubber or argue that I think he might be scum doc, all of which I am capable of doing, and you have to argue for me + wavemode which is an entirely plausible team.
EV-wise, either of these scenarios give us a 66% chance of winning: in the first case town has to find the one scum out of three in 4p MYLO, in the second case the town has to lynch the correct two scum out of three from 6p.
I sort of agree that another result effectively does a lot to aid the town's scumhunting. The problem is that keeping the vig alive gives the town an extra mislynch (really a misvig), which is effectively an extra result, and so killing the gunsmith doesn't actually remove the effect of them investigating. They will lynch someone, use the information from that lynch to inform who Chip vigs, and then use both flips to decide who to kill next if the game is still going.
There's also the fact that serg townreads me which is a bit of a boon in and of itself to keeping him alive. Although it also could be to killing him for wifom but shrugshrugshrug.
Basically I think the increased EV is just the deciding factor here.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Think about it this way - the situation if we manage to mislynch wavemode after killing serg is effectively the same as the situation if we kill chip and wave gets innoed. In both cases, the town is left having to kill both of us before Flubber. The only difference is whether they get to vig then lynch or lynch then lynch.Keeping chip alive and killing Serg creates a higher possibility that we mislynch wavemode tomorrow.
The other differences are only rhetorical, i.e. it might be a bad thing to have conftown-wave arguing loudly rather than just being mislynched since he thinks we're both scum.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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(as in, wave is almost certainly actually a VT and is probably getting at nothing meaningful with his rhetoric).
I *think* the most likely result today is that I go down. I am not sure if I'll be able to make skitter come around. If I go down then it's basically you v wavemode decided by flubber+skitter so don't be afraid to bus. Just do whatever you can at this point to make yourself look town or make it look like if i am scum then i must be scum with wavemode. Or w/e. I'm not sure if strong distancing is the right move. Of course the most obvious stance for you to take is just that you trust the result on flubber and to consistently equally push me and wavemode.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Basically the only real conscious thing I'm doing right now is I'm avoiding bringing up the townslip because I want wave to explain it first and I don't want it to look like I realize what he's talking about.
Honestly if anyone in this game had ever played with me at this point I would be so so so obvious scum eurgghgh.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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I think it's probably better for you to point this out than for me to, since you're the direct counter:
wavemode asked to be investigated by the gunsmith yesterday. He has literally zero fucking reason to do that if he's really a town vanilla cop (who will show up as having a gun). He has motivation to do it as mafia because it just looks townish to ask to be investigated, but if he were really town and he had gotten investigated last night there's no way in hell he'd think we'd believe his claim.
(at least, that's vaguely what I would argue. I can bring it up myself if it's not something you'd have noticed. My guess is just that he doesn't know that vanilla cop will show as having a gun but if he says that you can argue that he should definitely have had that thought when he saw the gunsmith claim, etc.)-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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Idk why skitter assumes that scum!VC!wave would be telling the truth about his results.skitter wrote:Despite that, I think there's def one scum and one townie between Wave/Seph, and I don't really think scum!VC!wave and townie!PR!seph makes sense in this specific context.
Like if scum!VC!wave gets a 'not vanilla' result on townie!PR!Seph, I feel like Seph would just claim PR, but didn't.
I'm pretty sure I believe the claim though, which leads me to believe town!VC!wave and scum!PR!Seph is the universe we're living in.
(more things for you to say though i'm sure you don't need me to tell you them >.>)
I sort of just hope that these proceedings make people magically start conceiving the game as me + wavemode vs you + flubber. I think I'm gonna heavily advocate your lynch. I think it's our best chance? I heavily advocate your lynch and I get lynched and you shoot serg and then suddenly Flubber has as much power as skitter, and flubber disbelieves wavemode's claim.'
I think I actually do want to get lynched here though X_X if you do then it's gonna be a lot harder for me to convince skitter+wave that Flub is scum than it would be for you to convince skitter+flub that wave is scum i think.-
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implosion he/himPolymathhe/him
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oh my god actually if you're lynched i might be able to make a balance case that flubber is a scum doc!
wave investigated me as vanilla so if you do get lynched today it'll be clear that if i'm scum scum has no power and I might be able to bullshit an argument around balance. I've straight won games off of arguing about balance as town and one of those is one of the games I linked to skitter as meta and I can probably actually come up with a decently convincing case. Despite knowing that it would be literal bullshit.-
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