Mini Normal 1963 Mafia PT

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Damn you mafiascum emoticons, conveying a slightly different emotion from what i intended to convey.

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Only person I know on the player list at all is wicked, and I haven't played with him in years. Which is nice after my last scumgame where I felt sort of trapped by my meta.

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I actually made a conscious decision to not mention either of you in my first few posts for a very specific reason - a game I played with wicked included a successful use of a tell that mafia when they list a bunch of names early on tend to list at least one scumbuddy, so I’m subverting that on the off chance he thinks about it later.

I’m not afraid to distance or bus but I think in the current ms meta it’s still generally better not to, so I’ll likely avoid really bussing.

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Hey guys

I've fallen a bit behind due to some work emergencies, but Friday I should have time to catch up.

Don't lynch me before then

Possible softclaim, though not strongly so.

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There are so damn many mislynchable townies right now though.

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nah it's fine i literally caught him scumslipping so >.>

i'm pretty sure i'd tunnel him here as town and can likely get away with it so i am going to just tunnel him for a while most likely. If he does say something townish then i'll flip because i can probably make a flip on Wossi look pretty good if he gives me something townish to work with.

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but yeah i think you can keep whatever positions feel most natural. We're blending in fine for now and that's all we really need atm. Only mostly-good reads I've seen are wave's but he only has me as maybe-scum and has seph as town.

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Either way.

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I’m enjoying his “but my reads are right lol” act.

His reads when he came into the game were okay but not stellar (his initial pool of I think 9 players contained all scum) but since then his reads have spiraled hilariously downward.

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Lalendra just mentioned having five scumreads which by her own logic implies she thinks there are five scum????

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It’s annoying bc I want to respond to Lalendra and I definitely would if I were town but don’t want to be seen as chainsawing you :p

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Maybe. But if people argue that scum are parked on the wagon, then there's a natural counterargument that there must be some reason for scum being parked on the wagon, i.e. one of the competing wagons over the course of the day (probably Lalendra but maybe Wossi or Chip) was on scum, and none of them were.

That said I'm sure you can

potentially

get away with new trepidation like skitter has if you want but I don't think you need to. I certainly can't since I've used his recent play to double down.

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Yeah.

I am almost tempted to swing a different wagon after his list of townreads has all 3 scum >__>

but -shrug-

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wavemode: Had pretty good if not stellar reads earlier on (post 327 calls Seph town, says he'd be willing to lynch TIAM and maybe me). Recently just wants to kill serg. lots of vague suspicion directed his way. Probably a bad nightkill but not awful, could frame serg.

Lalendra: suspicious of Seph but not really the others and obviously has a lot of suspicion on her. Bad nightkill.

Wickedestjr: possibly a decent choice if we want to not stir anything up, but ultimately he's a possible future mislynch. Actually with the way he's playing it wouldn't surprise me if he's a power role trying to lay lowish. Don't really remember what his reads are and can't pick them out at a glance. Probably still vaguely suspicious of Wossi.

iDanyboy: probably a mislynch. Middling reads (TIAM Is near the bottom of his list along with Wossi, but seph was near the top and I was fairly near the top). Shrug.

Chip Butty: top tier of reads is {me, sephiroth, dany} though TIAM is lowish. But not especially notable in any way I can think of? Not sure, could be a possible kill who the fuck knows.

skitter30: doc bait, possibly. Had all scum in top half of her reads list, but wouldn't surprise me if she takes a step back and re-evaluates after the Mulch townflip. Probably a mediocre nightkill because of a combination of probably-VT + possible doc target + reads.

Flubbernugget: lurky since mulch came so unclear reads. Scumreads lalendra still probably. Shrug. Could be an okay kill if we have no one in particular else that looks desirable.

Sergtacos: lol imagine the town's reaction if we killed him. Probably VT. Lurky, called mulch town but wasn't actually applying pressure in any direction so yet again, :shrug:.

Wossi: At the moment, this is where my gut says the kill should go. We still have him pinned as a likelyish power role for his reaction to the pressure, I don't think he's a likely doc target in particular, and it seems like fucking everyone who was scumreading him has changed their mind or at least softened their stance. I don't think he's an easy mislynch to swing at this point with so many voices making a chorus that he's town, and etc. Seems like the right choice.

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Obv whoever we shoot Sephiroth makes the kill bc ninja.

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Nexus said he wanted actions by PM, so PM him unless he says otherwise.

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Makes sense why he was speculating about multiball. There might be an sk who noticed that and also shot him.

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It also could be FBI agent without an actual sk as a named townie that whatever tracker or watcher exists can semi verify.

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go go gadget Lalendra powerlynch

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shit i think i actually might have died in this game in a dream now that i think about it because i'm pretty sure i have some memory of hoping that the associative tells i've dropped would be interpreted how i'd hoped they would >.>

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wicked's reads are perfect except for his read on me.

He probably eats a bullet for that tonight ~~~

idk if anyone here will care enough to invest in nka. Although it might be better not to shoot him bc it might point to seph.

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I think it's more likely that we both make it to the end.

I do think we kill wicked. There are lots of ways to frame the kill as being things other than seph-is-scum, in particular he's fairly town now for his TIAM vote and push, and it could implicate Chip just as much as seph since he was also in Wicked's bottom few.

We then lynch TIAM, and then we have a few choices; we probably kill skitter then just since she's active and easily could reconsider etc. And we can always focus our own NK speculation on her kill. I think killing anyone else might look suspicious. But I think we can get away with shooting wicked.

Definitely a good thing that Lalendra was a PR.

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there are definitely more power roles. At least two more major ones or three more middling ones. We've only seen two so far, and one of them does literally nothing against the mafia.

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odds that a second rb would target you are v low.

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Probably. They might have also seen Wossi crumb and shot him. If Wicked is the only one that dies tonight, decent chance that Chip is an SK who shot him.

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But the fbi investigator role could also be a red herring, like a miller without a cop.

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Why?

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I’ll think about it but yeah it could be p much anyone. It is lovely being able to scumhunt as scum though ~~

Money is very strongly on the sk being either a strongman or a bulletproof, since they are directly countered by both Lalendra and Wossi. Actually it’s quite possible that Lalendra blocked the sk n1.

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Don't think serg is the SK. Don't really think it's flubber either, nor skitter.

Probably either Chip or wave.

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Either way i think it's LIKELY that the sk is gunning for scum right now, and probably will be even after TIAM is lynched.

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we both claim vt and shoot at power roles

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and/or we bullshit some setup speculation.

I'm really, really good at setup spec in mini normals when I'm town. Which probably means that I can bs it pretty well~

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maybe if i just argue about massclaim they'll think i'm actually producing content who knows it's a free country

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I give it something like 95-5 odds of him being a real vig, actually. Depends on wave's claim though to a degree.

Town only has FBI agent, roleblocker and vig claimed so far. If Chip is a serial killer, then they have literally one power role (roleblocker) that works against the mafia and roleblocker is a pretty damn mediocre role against a 3-person scumteam. Even if wave claims, say, watcher, i'd still guess he's a real vig pretty strongly. 3 power roles is the sort of bare minimum for a setup to be considered balanced at 3:10, and at that point all of the power roles have to be pretty solid and scum has to have no or very little power, and FBI agent doesn't count as a power role effectively because it's useless against mafia and so doesn't weigh in the balance of the setup in terms of town vs mafia.

I'm not actually going to say all of that in-thread probably though~~~~~~~~

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(and obviously from a town POV it's possible that TIAM is a backup roleblocker as well, and there are currently three people (you, me, wave) who haven't claimed)

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I have a hunch wave is fakeclaiming. Or someone else, idk who. This is a very low amount of town power. There might be a doc.

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Nope, probably no doctor, this makes sense. Gunsmith and vig are both very strong roles (specifically since there are no false negatives for the gunsmith), full roleblocker is like medium tier, fbi agent probably has a gun and serves as a false positive for the gunsmith but confirmable-ish role via the roleblocker and also throws some doubt on the vig, setup makes sense now.

Doctor was sort of just a vague guess; this makes perfect sense. TIAM gets lynched today, tonight we kill serg and chip will shoot someone. That leaves it at 2:3 or 1:4 tomorrow depending on if chip's shot lands on scum. Either way, someone will be lynched, and at that point the game will either be 1:3 or it'll be over, and if it's 1:3 then we have two options: shoot chip, which is the better option if chip decides to shoot that night (if he shoots a townie we'll just win), or we shoot skitter and if chip doesn't shoot we can frame him as an SK.

Game will be tricky though. We need two mislynch/miskills. skitter/serg/chip are probably not really viable targets to mislynch anymore. Basically, this game is going to come down to which one of the four of {implosion, sephiroth, wavemode, flubber} the town decides looks towniest.

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It's not extremely hard per se. I think at this point if town were to do things randomly, it's actually just about 50-50. Which is a bit annoying because I feel like the town has done pretty poorly up to this point, and the only thing that's gone their way is TIAM quickhammering and making himself scummy and even then he ate a gunsmith investigation after that. We just need to appeal to skitter, basically. She's the one whose reads will decide this game at this point. I'm going to step up a bit more tomorrow most likely. Or possibly during the rest of today. We both need to make ourselves obvtown as much as we can. I know she said she's throwing her old reads out, but we can still probably appeal to our early games and possibly our interactions with TIAM.

I'm going to make a post today probably that will just like lay all of this out in thread bc that's what i'd do as town and I think bringing clarity to the game will earn me some town points. From there, it'll be a rather direct matter of convincing Chip to shoot/skitter to lynch flub and/or wave.

I'll also bring up the skitter-could-be-a-scum-doctor perspective at some point but i'm not going to push it since i've been calling her town.

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/sigh

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oh my god i'm an idiot i thought serg was actually saying he was lying okay i am going to make a BIG SERIES OF POSTS after eating food

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Big, big mistake from town telling chip to holster tonight if tiam flips scum. This gives us the very alluring option of shooting chip, and letting Serg get another gunsmith result, but at the cost of the town's additional mislynch. Town effectively will have to either pick the correct one scum out of three people or the correct one town out of three people correctly to win (depending on whether Serg gets an innocent or a guilty result), instead of being able to pick either of two correct townies out of 4 people.

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(note to self: if two = scum roleblocker implosion's post at the top of this page is super sketchy),

This was intentional :3

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Yeah.

You make the kill in case of any odd fakeclaim shenanigans but it shouldn’t really matter.

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Er wait no I think we kill chip

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So this is basically assuming the town is competent/trusts chip, and also assuming chip doesn't shoot tonight since that was the stated plan, but here's how everything likely plays out.

If we kill serg, the gunsmith:

Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed vig. They lynch, and they will realize that if they mislynch (or even if they lynch town) that the vig should be shooting that night to put the game back in odds.

Mathematically, this means the town will get three kills (d4 lynch, n4 vig, d5 lynch), each of which they will be making with the knowledge of the previous flip. If they kill both town we win, if they kill both scum we lose. EV-wise, this give us a 50% chance of winning, as these three kills will either be 2town1scum or 2scum1town with equal likelihood. It's a bit tricky to predict what will happen here because it depends on the order of kills but any conceivable town v scum 1v1 in the final day is possible.

If we kill chip, the vig:

Tomorrow is 2 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed + 1 confirmed gunsmith with 1 gunsmith result.

If that gunsmith result is on one of us, town lynches that one of us and we are left in MYLO with 1 scum vs 2 unconfirmed + 1 confirmed, and likely skitter just decides between the three and we can directly appeal to her/argue at that point and both of us have pretty solid rhetorical skills so I think this is not a bad situation to be in; the difficult part will be associations, but I think each of us has been careful to leave enough associations that lead away from the other or can be interpreted both ways that we could get through it. It just depends how town interprets things ultimately. I doubt he'll investigate me since he gave me as a townread but he might just because skitter sort of implied that she wants that. If I get guiltied you'll probably have to argue for wave being my partner, if you get guiltied I'll probably have to waver between the two.

If that gunsmith result is on a townie and the town trusts the result, we are left with 2 scum vs 1 unconfirmed, all three of these people arguing that the other pair of them is the scumteam. Town lynches in this group, and if they hit scum then we're left with 1v1 mylo-but-effectively-just-lylo the next day. Of course, it's possible that the town won't trust the result fully because scum doctor is entirely possible in this setup. But if we assume worst case is that they unconditionally trust the gunsmith results, worst case here might be a clear on wavemode. Suddenly you have to argue for a me + Flubber team which is somewhat... ludicrous, as I really made a mistake yesterday by trying to push him and I tried to curtail that near the end of the day. But you can probably make that argument and I can argue for you + flubber just fine. A clear on flubber means I have to argue for you + him and make an awkward turn on Flubber or argue that I think he might be scum doc, all of which I am capable of doing, and you have to argue for me + wavemode which is an entirely plausible team.

EV-wise, either of these scenarios give us a 66% chance of winning: in the first case town has to find the one scum out of three in 4p MYLO, in the second case the town has to lynch the correct two scum out of three from 6p.

I sort of agree that another result effectively does a lot to aid the town's scumhunting. The problem is that keeping the vig alive gives the town an extra mislynch (really a misvig), which is effectively an extra result, and so killing the gunsmith doesn't actually remove the effect of them investigating. They will lynch someone, use the information from that lynch to inform who Chip vigs, and then use both flips to decide who to kill next if the game is still going.

There's also the fact that serg townreads me which is a bit of a boon in and of itself to keeping him alive. Although it also could be to killing him for wifom but shrugshrugshrug.


Basically I think the increased EV is just the deciding factor here.

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(tl;dr I don't think we actually gain anything from killing serg instead of chip, unless chip decides to do the smart thing and disobey orders and shoot here.)

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Keeping chip alive and killing Serg creates a higher possibility that we mislynch wavemode tomorrow.

Think about it this way - the situation if we manage to mislynch wavemode after killing serg is effectively the same as the situation if we kill chip and wave gets innoed. In both cases, the town is left having to kill both of us before Flubber. The only difference is whether they get to vig then lynch or lynch then lynch.

The other differences are only rhetorical, i.e. it might be a bad thing to have conftown-wave arguing loudly rather than just being mislynched since he thinks we're both scum.

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We

can

also argue wave is scum doc if he gets innoed if we need to.

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wave thinks I'm town because of my fake townslip.

I think the gotcha is in him asking if you're still claiming VT. Scum has effectively 0 power roles, so town having gunsmith + vig + roleblocker + fbi agent seems just about right for balance.

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(as in, wave is almost certainly actually a VT and is probably getting at nothing meaningful with his rhetoric).

I *think* the most likely result today is that I go down. I am not sure if I'll be able to make skitter come around. If I go down then it's basically you v wavemode decided by flubber+skitter so don't be afraid to bus. Just do whatever you can at this point to make yourself look town or make it look like if i am scum then i must be scum with wavemode. Or w/e. I'm not sure if strong distancing is the right move. Of course the most obvious stance for you to take is just that you trust the result on flubber and to consistently equally push me and wavemode.

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It's actually also possible that wave will trust the townslip over the gunsmith result. Which would be fantastic. But I won't count on it.

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Basically the only real conscious thing I'm doing right now is I'm avoiding bringing up the townslip because I want wave to explain it first and I don't want it to look like I realize what he's talking about.

Honestly if anyone in this game had ever played with me at this point I would be so so so obvious scum eurgghgh.

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I think it's probably better for you to point this out than for me to, since you're the direct counter:

wavemode asked to be investigated by the gunsmith yesterday. He has literally zero fucking reason to do that if he's really a town vanilla cop (who will show up as having a gun). He has motivation to do it as mafia because it just looks townish to ask to be investigated, but if he were really town and he had gotten investigated last night there's no way in hell he'd think we'd believe his claim.

(at least, that's vaguely what I would argue. I can bring it up myself if it's not something you'd have noticed. My guess is just that he doesn't know that vanilla cop will show as having a gun but if he says that you can argue that he should definitely have had that thought when he saw the gunsmith claim, etc.)

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Despite that, I think there's def one scum and one townie between Wave/Seph, and I don't really think scum!VC!wave and townie!PR!seph makes sense in this specific context.

Like if scum!VC!wave gets a 'not vanilla' result on townie!PR!Seph, I feel like Seph would just claim PR, but didn't.

I'm pretty sure I believe the claim though, which leads me to believe town!VC!wave and scum!PR!Seph is the universe we're living in.

Idk why skitter assumes that scum!VC!wave would be telling the truth about his results.

(more things for you to say though i'm sure you don't need me to tell you them >.>)

I sort of just hope that these proceedings make people magically start conceiving the game as me + wavemode vs you + flubber. I think I'm gonna heavily advocate your lynch. I think it's our best chance? I heavily advocate your lynch and I get lynched and you shoot serg and then suddenly Flubber has as much power as skitter, and flubber disbelieves wavemode's claim.'

I think I actually do want to get lynched here though X_X if you do then it's gonna be a lot harder for me to convince skitter+wave that Flub is scum than it would be for you to convince skitter+flub that wave is scum i think.

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oh my god actually if you're lynched i might be able to make a balance case that flubber is a scum doc!

wave investigated me as vanilla so if you do get lynched today it'll be clear that if i'm scum scum has no power and I might be able to bullshit an argument around balance. I've straight won games off of arguing about balance as town and one of those is one of the games I linked to skitter as meta and I can probably actually come up with a decently convincing case. Despite knowing that it would be literal bullshit.

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Ninja is literally a negative utility role in this setup. And that will be obvious to the town if you flip.

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yeah that is also quite true WRT serg.

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It's possible. I'll just need to be able to weasel my way into quickhammering. The problem is if skitter votes for you or me then Flubber may feel obligated to follow.

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Looks like we win soon maybe???
Post 1359 is a very impressive series of deductions by skitter even if they are wrong :p

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gah i feel like i'm obligated to lurk right now

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I think you can do good things by posting IF you think you can make sufficiently convincing points/rebuttals.

My play at this point is to tie myself to wavemode, and I think that's been done and any further defending him has two risks: either skitter buys my points and doesn't lynch wavemode (worst case scenario lol) or she sees through the ruse of me tying myself to him, which is always possible.

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yeeeeeah been there done that :p

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high school debate is a fun club

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Well, implosion is more or less conftown to me at this point simply because if he switched sides, they'd have enough votes to lynch me

uh yeah this isn't how mylo works when people haven't voted yet :s

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oh my god the tying myself to wave thing might be working

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i think you need to make some kind of indignant posts of your own or something like that

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if NL happens then we kill serg. wave doesn't have an investigation to use tonight.

I can't justify voting for wave and forcing a no-lynch. If serg + skitter both decide to vote for you then I have to join them or it becomes obvious that we're scum together I think.

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Well drat.

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uyesaopidfjsosieglskrjangd yes i saw and i counted like 58249057 times

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sorry i am not in a mental state where i trust myself to count to three