Newbie 1714: Mafia Thread

[dvds12]

Good luck to you too, hope luck in on our side. At first I was really scared going into this, but now after reading all you have sent me i'm feeling pretty good about this. So I know I have said this like a million times now but Thank you so much for all this information and tips.

[Raskolnikov]

Lastly I'd recommend just having a text file you keep your "viewpoints" in
but like chronological so they "change" over time.

That way later on when you're talking about a person you can fake a somewhat natural looking read in that it developed over time, and you don't have to try to make everything up on the spot if someone asks you about a person you never talked about so far.

Also maybe a note on how "productive" you feel at a time (town feel productive when they have decent leads they can follow); town are supposed to be frustrated in certain situations and really happy and engaged in others. But you don't want to look apathetic, even if town are sometimes apathetic.

Anyways I THINK that's all I have to offer so I hope it does help because I'm not sure myself if how sound most of it is yet.

[Raskolnikov]

Thank you again for the reading material, will definitely read this.

No problem and good luck to us both.

Worst case scenario a lynch on one of us day 1 isn't necessarily the end as long as we don't leave too bad association. We will be interacting at some point day 1 and hopefully can make it seem natural.
Just in case I somehow die d1: without any PR knowledge I'd do ranger kill n1 and probably f-oh-x/beeboy n2 depending on if one is figuring the game out and/or too heavily being townread to ever lynch.
Even if ranger is "suspected" actually lynching her isn't easy and even if she has a read wrong d1 she could easily re-evaluate overnight and figure the game out next day.
If we can weather d1 and get rid of her I think our chances are okay.

Anyways I'm going to confirm now and the game should start at some point tomorrow (and obviously we cant then comm anymore). If you have any questions feel free, but otherwise see you then.

[Raskolnikov]

One last thing, if I'm being wagoned I should be fine so don't feel pressured to defend me in any way.

[Raskolnikov]

Like even if I'm at l-1

[Raskolnikov]

Okay... With a little luck managed to survive today. Was literally getting panic attacks from day 1 onwards, I think I'm not cut out for scum

Are you there? This night timing is actually unfortunate for us because I leave today in a few hours and get back sunday night and I'l be missing most of the time to talk in here. I'm not sure if you got bored and flaked out of this game either, though even if that were the case I think the timing is such that replace wouldn't come till past night. I hope you're still playing! But regardless I'm going to leave my thoughts in here since I'll be gone for most of this 'night'.

[Raskolnikov]

I still want to kill ranger even if she's potentially mislynchable here. Though she seemed mixed on me here just seeing this flip has a huge chance of her figuring the game out, if not also seeing the NK and playing through next day if we leave her alive. Even if beeboy KNOWS I'm scum he's going to have some work convincing everyone, whereas ranger can potentially articulate it perfectly or use some form of magic or other to win the game. I definitely see why people kill ranger and I can only hope beeboy isnt doctor/jk to save ranger, or cop to cop me. I feel like beeboy can't try to get me lynched without looking scummy himself in the process, and I with the newbie influence I seem to have here I MAY win a 1v1 there even if he goes all-out. I feel like if ranger get's ML'd she'll post final thoughts calling us out and people will 100% believe and trust her, whereas if beeboy or someone else gets mislynched people won't automatically trust whatever reads they have (though technically ranger's view on sad should have people doubting in practice who knows). Ranger nk also has added utility in that I'd expect most of the newbies if they were PR to investigate her and if she's dead it's a wasted action.

[Raskolnikov]

Before this hammer actually happened I was thinking that I forgot to mention something here and it was very coincidental! About 1/2-2/3s into this day I realized I should have mentioned; if ranger, beeboy or potentially even f-oh-x (the three players I pinned as threats before the game started) get within L-1 it's actually very good if you were to quickhammer them and pass it off as an accident! People counter intuitively don't scumread or lynch quickhammering nearly as much as you would expect and it does come from town a fair bit. That way too would have gotten ranger/f-oh-x out of the way instead of sad/?ranger(if not saved), and quite frankly we wanted sad alive.

But that's no longer a viable strategy anyways because of this happening, no one would buy another "mistake" after this.

[Raskolnikov]

dvds(slot) kills ranger

Just setting this now in case I don't come back for some reason before thread lock.
Will reconsider and get the chance to change it before night ends but I somehow doubt I will. If I was a better scum player I'd know who the PRs are about now but nope.

[Raskolnikov]

Next day if you are here I need you to be way more active though and have a scumread. If you're having trouble you can write what you want to write in this topic and I can look over it when I get back sunday night but it is pretty important for you to get townread here by someone.

My personal plan I THINK will be pushing beeboy/vandit? I'm not quite sure but I feel like beeboy will push me so I want to beat him to the punch here and make it look omgusy or even like TvT. Vandits an easy mislynch here but after he flips it'll potentially look obvious I was going for the low hanging fruit there, and tbh I see immense value in having him in 3-2 LYLO even if it's pretty evil to use that to our advantage.

But I will have to push your slot today just for consistency and depending on how that goes it may be a bus; I'm not sure if town will townread or scumread you and I can't really go against town without sticking out if it ends up the latter. I'd even straight up hardcore tunnelpush except that I'm afraid of giving away weird associations/messing up distancing.

[Raskolnikov]

In a perfect world I'd lynch beeboy somehow tomorrow and NK f-oh-x, leaving against us in 3-2 lylo
zyf, sickofit, vandit.
Although that isn't to say they won't figure the game out. I think sickofit could have potential if he wasn't so AFK/inactive and I see lylo pressure as potentially bringing it out of him. Him suspecting me is quite likely if the IC and other SE is dead.
Zyf townreads me for now but on the same reasoning I expect him to question that townread heavily after the playerlist keeps narrowing down. However zyf and vandit both scumread sickofit and he's potentially the final ml if we get there, even if they cool off I still doubt they'd 180 to townreading him and never doubt him again.

[Raskolnikov]

The danger of today is beeboy and f-oh-x cooperating in scumreading me and lynching there.
I touched on this but to reiterate, if I fall under a lot of pressure it may be better to not defend/counterwagon me and possibly even scumread me there. Though don't make it out like I'm your top scumread and then vote/pressure elsewhere because that would be a read/actions mismatch; if I'm l-1 it's understandable for you to just hold vote vote and even l-2 for a while if its early in the day and the wagon was fast. But I think it is important you take a side, whether its scumreading like beeboy or townreading like zyf does because apathy there is the worst tell.
I bring up not defending because people generally feel suspicious of when someone is being wagoned and close to lynch "easily" and without resistance, and furthermore if it gets desperate I can scumread your jump onto my wagon and either make you look better or divert the lynch to a bus or onto a third party entirely (if anyone joins me in scumreading your jump on I can then call them opportunistic for playing both sides of the 1v1).

Mmm I'm not very experienced at scum myself though so this is mostly theory which may or may not work out in practice.

[Raskolnikov]

Okay... I'm assuming you flaked. Probably spouted too much theory and drivel at you, although tbh most of this was planning for myself. Welcome to whoever replaces you, estimated time June 7-8; I assume you'll read this. I know a lot of what I said wasn't even good since I'm bad at scum myself but I had hoped to minimize risk of newbie doing obvscum tells or whatever else and getting caught by scary ranger right away, in practice the flake makes it irrelevant now unless you're also newbie instead of an SE+ replacement.

I'm thinking of pushing you shortly after replace, on the reasoning that "I have too many townreads" and so you're likely scumpartner to whoever else is scum. People shouldn't like that reasoning but I doubt they'd see it as bussing either. More importantly it'll let my ask the questions I've been meaning to when you get wagoned, though of course ignore my faux-answers if you are experienced yourself. If you're experienced I'll also use paranoia of you BECAUSE of your experience as part of my push and justification to "get a read on you", though I won't say that's what I'm doing for the latter but rather "show it" and bring it up if people later ask why I'm pushing there.

Although if you don't want me to go through with this you should give me some sign, such as saying "I'd prefer not to do" but talk about something else at the end there and I'll assume it was about this. I may ignore that anyways though!

@mod ^this is fine under rules, right? Can I go further than that and hypo plan our day with word triggers? Where is the line drawn?

[Raskolnikov]

1 hour to day start... I'll try not to show up too late since that looks bad... Assuming ranger doesn't survive somehow I'll do the beeboy vote (pressure sort-of) or maybe a sickofit (or even f-oh-x?) one instead.
Also I have to remember to find some reason to show paranoia on zyf at some point just so he doesn't start scumreading me for completely ignoring him.

[Zaicon]

@mod ^this is fine under rules, right? Can I go further than that and hypo plan our day with word triggers? Where is the line drawn?

I'm not aware of any rules against such things.

[mhsmith0]

Current game state read: FOX copped vandit, which was why he was against the lynch, and then backed out when he saw it as inevitable to avoid getting outed as cop. Not 100% but my best guess.

For now...

Mhsmith0 murders FOX.

Let's discuss when rask gets back. DO NOT CONSENT to speed deadlines. At all.

Ps I had thought it was me/vandit when I signed on. Was half right lol.

PPs we REALLY need to discuss what to do given result of night action, nk, vt's, or various prs.

Ppps I really hate wolfing . I also think newbie setups are way too town sided, since we ducked two lynches and town can potentially lock it with night actions alone.

[mhsmith0]

Fwiw, rask and I are CRUSHING the day game right now, both pretty decent town reads overall. And sick is super easy mislynch d3 I think, with beeboy also possible. But we REALLY need the nk to hit a pr. Will re read to see if I can get a better PR read. But worst case, I think FOX is he best of the remaining townies. Spk ain't terrible.

Ps lol if we're up against a jk only. Other than ACTUALLY hitting the cop/tracker, a jk miss would be most helpful outcome.

[mhsmith0]

I actually feel really sympathetic to the surviving town newbies sick and zyf because imo they're legit trying, they just don't know how to scum-hunt or what to look for (though in fairness, vandit seemed obv!wolf who just happened to be town - I actually kinda forgot what even happened d1 or what the sad wagon was even about lol) . Note to self: share resources w them post game however things work out.

[mhsmith0]

The down side of shooting fox instead of zyf is that if beeboy and suck are both prs (or one is cop and cleared the other), we need to ML zyf which will be HARD. I've thrown a bit of dirt on both bee and sick, and FOX's "will" is helpful too. But all will be lost if we get the wrong mix of prs and night actions. Yuck.

[mhsmith0]

lol just went over my wiki and almost all my games here are subs.

[mhsmith0]

I kinda wonder if this would be a good game to play my "I'm always easy to read, I always get quick-lynched as wolf, I never get lynched as town" card. I mean it's completely true, but it's also pretty cheap to pull this in a newbie game. At any rate, I think we need a plan of attack for NK result:

FOX = JK
FOX = Cop
FOX = Tracker
FOX = Doctor
FOX = VT
No kill

VT and no kill are the bad ones IMO. the rest we can/should be able to work with. JK/cop are of course the best flips. Tracker nearly as good, because one town clear and no investigative.

[Raskolnikov]

alright im back

[Raskolnikov]

Im glad you replaced in btw, I think you're pretty good. As scum I've had a HORRENDOUS record (lynched day 1 4/4 times) previous to this so I've been trying not to suck here, but tbh every experienced player I feared from gamestart (ranger,beeboy,f-oh-x) had suspected me anyways.

haven't caught up yet though I caught the vandit lynch. lol he was talking like he was PR before too

[mhsmith0]

Ironically, I'm actually VERY happy I was on that mislynch wagon. NOT being on that wagon is seemingly TMI.

I'd say I'm pretty good as town (NEVER mislynched outside a turbo, one time I tied at EOD but as a sub on a slot that had already gotten votes). As wolf I kinda suck (i keep getting quick lynched lol), but since I was wolf reading vandit before I got role pm I basically rolled with it. I think this game is locked if we hit the cop or jk. We're in trouble if kill is blocked though. Or if it's a vt flip (barring a row 1 scenario)

[mhsmith0]

Ill re read tomorrow to see if there's a better pr target than fox, but I kinda think beeboy and zyf were sending fake pr signals (beeboy especially seems like the sort).