Newbie 1741 - Mafia

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nn30
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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 10:47 pm

Potential "moon logic" moment - could be overthinking things.

What if you defend Algebra. As it stands I'm very concerned about day 3 if Algebra is the D2 lynch. Right now I'm the most logical (at least to my eyes) person to lynch. Once Algebra flips town everyone is going to go back to the point where they were sure either myself or Algebra were scum. That means the game is going to on at least 2 more day phases.

The upside is we'd permanently get one of the townies on your side (Algrebra). To make a survivor analogy, if we're down to the final 3 Algebra would take you with him to the final two.

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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 10:26 am

I've thought about helping algebra out, problem is he's so scummy it'd be like I know he's town. However if I get a reason to defend him tomorrow, letting him live would be advantageous.

That Dunny logic is what my townie self is upset about, why'd we switch to shadowez when algebra was obviously going to get lynched either today or tomorrow? If Dun argues a logical case for algebra I'll buddy her, or if I'm feeling ballsy I'll make the case myself.

If algebra lives through day 2, I think he'll go after Titus day 3.

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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:00 pm

You could phrase it like this.

We know either Nn30 or Algebra are scummy. Finding the alignment of one likely points to the alignment of the other.

We played day 1 as if Algebra was absolutely the day 2 kill.

What if we lynch Nn30 instead - we gain the same information and we play day two differently than scum were expecting, potentially throwing off plans.


The more I think about it the more I think we should just let Algebra swing and play it by ear. It's possible we're trying to get too fancy.

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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:03 pm

If you get lynched, letting algebra live on would be less useful, as I'd need an extra mislynch anyway.

That sounds like it'd be a good move if you become under fire, but bringing you back into the lynch conversation seems like high risk low reward.

If at any point during the day there's a major algebra wagon and a less strong nn one, I might go with something like

"We can almost guarantee there is 1 scum in [nn30, algebra]. I do not believe they're a scumteam, due to them solely pushing eachother today, rather than attempting a townie mislynch.

Therefore, lynching one will give us the other's alignment. If we mislynch, we'll get a correct lynch tomorrow, but if we hit the scum today then we'll have a townie to trust in.

So far I wouldn't favour one over the other. So my logic is that:

Yesterday, we acted as if we'd lynch algebra 100% today. What if we lynch nn30, though? We'll gain the same info (this one is town, other is scum, vice versa), and we've done something scum weren't expecting us to do. If nn flips town, we've got the confirmed algebra lynch for tomorrow. If nn flips scum, we'll have a confirmed town algebra and one scum down."

Now that I've written it out, it sounds like I'm really defending my scumbudy algebra here, and trying to push a mislynch on you. What if this post got me lynched? They'd definitely hang algebra the next day, and since I pushed a nn lynch, you'll look like a townie. I could see leaving Dunny alive for the final mislynch, as I can see them choosing a Dun/Morning scumteam over an nn/Morning scumteam at that point.

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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:31 pm

..."and since I pushed an nn lynch, you'll look like a townie."

Not sure how I feel about this. All the theory I've read has talked about scum bussing each other as being overrated. What do we do if the 1 scum among nn/Algebra logic gets brought back up? No matter how townie I look due to you bussing me, that logic isn't going away.

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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:06 pm

In post 28, Morning Tweet wrote:They'd definitely hang algebra the next day

Since I pushed a nn lynch, you'll look like a townie.
Lmao I literally contradicted myself with 2 adjacent sentences, you'd look like a townie for that day then it'd be immediately lost after algebra's flip. Had to make that post quicky, sorry about that :lol:

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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 9:10 pm

Anyway pushing an nn lynch over algebra would look great for me if I were strong enough to get you lynched, but I think it'd most likely blow up in my face then the situation would play out very poorly for both of us.

Although I suppose passively going along with the easy lynches isn't going to help us in the long run, either.

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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:07 am

Let's decide on what to do in the night.

Kill - Arona. Role block - Papa.

Thoughts?

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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:22 am

I agree with the roleblock 100%, Arona's debatable but I think it'll seal the deal on algebra's wagon for tomorrow + Arona might be a PR. I don't think it's likely he'll be protected by a doctor, I could see him possibly being jailkept. I can see most everyone being jailkept, though.

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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 8:26 am

Just in case we aren't able to get back online or we don't change our minds, I'll make our placeholder actions

Roleblock: Papa Zito

(Morning) Kills: Aronagrundy

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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 04, 2016 10:03 pm

You're right about passive not winning us the game.

Whatever we do (defend Algebra tomorrow or let him hand and play for day 3) we need to have an active approach to tomorrow's day phase.

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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 05, 2016 1:46 pm

If I can somehow create a reasonable case for algebra, it'd be optimal to do it. If I can make myself look like his buddy, this could work:

D2 - (5 Town v 2 Mafia) Lynch townie other than algebra
D3 - (3 Town v 2 Mafia) Lynch Morning Tweet, whom defended algebra and seems like his buddy. She flips scum.
D4- (2 Town v 1 Mafia) Lynch algebra whom is still alive, he's obviously Morning's buddy. Lynch algebra, scum wins.

For this to work the cop (if there is one) has absolutely GOT to be dead ASAP. The game lasts too long for him/her to get that many results.

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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:18 pm

Any reads on the cop?

D3 is rough in your scenario. I don't see you going down before Algebra.

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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 05, 2016 6:58 pm

In that case, if we mislynch someone other than algebra D2 and they go after algebra rather than myself D3, we'd win.

No reads of substance for the cop.

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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 05, 2016 8:52 pm

Good morning!
- Tic Tac Dough! -
- Betrayal: Widow's Walk -
- On this day in history: mundanity, and terror, and food, and love, and trees -

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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 7:50 pm

Hi naughty killer people
- Tic Tac Dough! -
- Betrayal: Widow's Walk -
- On this day in history: mundanity, and terror, and food, and love, and trees -

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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:32 pm

A few things.

There's a 1-shot bulletproof.

I'm not being heavily scum read.

I think at day start you should wait long enough to get a feel for what the town is doing. If they're going to go after me, so be it. If not...

We may have a shot at playing off of Titus' investigating Zito.

My plan for tomorrow, if it isn't me, is to continually keep saying are you sure? We lose here if we're wrong. Are you sure (and giving reasons of course.)
Could buy me some town cred.

Any read on the 1 shot bp? My guess is Zito - he kept saying he tried to get killed. It's like he wanted us to target him.

Dunhally would be a good one lynch. She's heavily town read.

I'll do ISO's tomorrow and see if there's anyone we could frame.

WOOH we made it to LYLO.

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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:52 pm

The general consensus feels like "There's one scum in Morning/nn30, and one in Titus/Papa/Empoof".

If I continue playing the logic angle then you'd be my probable target. I'm fairly sure either you'll be singled out tomorrow or Papa/Titus will duel to the very end.

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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 10:55 pm

Don't be the one to start it on me then.

Hop on quickly if someone else singles me out. Stay silent otherwise.

If not, stand back and let me fan the Zito / Titus flames. Worst case scenario it blows back on me, I get lynched, and we're where we thought we'd be anyways.

Thoughts on the NK?

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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:03 pm

The bulletproof cannot reveal to confirm themself as long as we do not hit them tonight. If we hit the bulletproof, it could be very bad news for us.

I've been thinking about siking the town out by killing Empoof instead of Dunny. At the surface it seems pointless to frame Dun as she's so townread, but I could see it working. In addition I do not think Empoof is the BP. HOWEVER if he is BP it could still work out for us, as he is such an odd kill. All we'd have to do is counterclaim and I think one of us could beat him. Might be missing something, though, so Dunny might more safe.

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Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:05 pm

*be more safe

If I'm not the one to start it, it could look like bussing. I'll start it after Papa and Titus fight, if that occurs.

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Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Tue Oct 18, 2016 11:16 pm

If Dunny turns out to be BP it's not that big a deal, though, since they all think she's town anyway. Perhaps trying something fancy is a bad idea.

In a "Titus Empoof Zito nn Morning" town, I'd have more room to attack an Empoof scumteam. I'd have to make sure not to leave you out on accident, but I don't think it'd be a big problem.

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Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:26 am

Upon reread I'm fairly sure an nn/Titus scumteam will be pushed tomorrow. They may go for Titus first, since I probably could be her partner as well. If they do vote for you, I'd like to see what Titus does in reaction.

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Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:31 am

Bussing me is fine, I just don't want it to be the go to move is all. Why complicate things if we could win tomorrow, right?

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Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Wed Oct 19, 2016 9:34 am

If Dunny is BP, no counter claim would hold weight. I'm still fairly certain it's Zito though.

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