Newbie 1742 Mafia Topic

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BlackVoid
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Post Post #25  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:23 pm

I spent a good portion of D2 thinking Icy was the doc because he was so obsessed with the nightkill. Clearly my PR-senses are out-of-whack. I'll read over the ISOs of the remaining four players and let you know. You could have a point that it's indeed Penguin.

Also, can you let me know what times you are generally going to be online and what your time zone is? If we see an opportunity to quickhammer, we should think about whether to take it or slow roll it.

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Post Post #26  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 01, 2016 10:56 pm

Why shouldn't we just kill the suspected tracker here?

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Post Post #27  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:04 pm

I posted that without seeing your reply on page two, I'll do a post with times and stuff in a little bit.

BlackVoid
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Post Post #28  (ISO)  » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:33 pm

In post 26, Shadowlancerx wrote:Why shouldn't we just kill the suspected tracker here?

We should. Those possibilities are the worst case scenarios if we both a) wind up being wrong on who the tracker is, AND b) the tracker tracks me to the kill in the event that I perform it.

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Post Post #29  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:12 am

I'm reading Penguin's ISO and I think you might be right.

In post 228, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 227, Accountant wrote:No - we don't want the scum killing investigatives and preventing them from bringing their investigations and info to the table the next day. Plus, if we lynch Huntress, it won't be LyLo.


How do you know we're in a setup with investigatives?


In post 231, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 230, Accountant wrote:It's just not optimal to massclaim when we can just lynch huntress and avert lylo in the first place


No. I get that. It's just that now you and Shadow have both commented pretty specifically on our setup. It's off-putting.



I also found these little tidbits:

In post 211, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 207, Shadowlancerx wrote:is it possible hunt is a roleblocker


Why do you think this?



In ,post 213, PenguinPower wrote:
In post 212, Shadowlancerx wrote:Because Scarlet's move makes no sense unless there is some gain, and the setup is as of yet unknown to me.


But, why that specific role?


Only the tracker knows that there is no roleblocker so the skepticism of a roleblocker existing could point to a tracker trying to hunt for potential scum trying to fake-claim PRs.

Not wanting to discuss reads in twilight could be a sign that he didn't want to give away who he intended to track.

So basically I agree. Penguin is probably the tracker. We should be killing Penguin and it's best if you perform the kill.

I'm going to go over Accountant's, Scarlet's, and Icy's posts to see if they crumbed anything just to make sure. Since Accountant actively suggested that he be lynched, I'm guessing it's not him.

BlackVoid
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Post Post #30  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:04 am

Scarlet also suggested that he be lynched which points away from a power role but he seems so new to mafia in general that I don't know if it's even a reliable tell.

So, Penguin probably is the tracker. Accountant and Scarlet are likely VTs. Going to look over Icy next.

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Post Post #31  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:06 am

Those quotes you gave are exactly what lead me to think penguin was a power role, and with Huntress' flip it makes even more sense because as a tracker, he knew there was no possibility of a role blocker.

I think we should slow role it, I feel like we have this game pretty well under our control, even the people who do suspect you are prioritizing you lower than their primary target. My online time is sporadic during the week, as I'm at work on weekdays from 830-5 MST. I have been able to do some posting from work, but not a great deal. The evenings I usually have more availability.
Thinking out loud though, is there some sort of signal we could give that would basically mean "I'll be constantly refreshing for 10 min, if you vote in that time, I'll quick hammer". Like some sort of phrase that wouldn't come off as abnormal but would be obvious to us? Thoughts on that?

If we royally screw up and someone else claims tracker, think you can stage a convincing counter claim? You should come up with previous night's tracks and why you chose them so it's a convincing counter. I implied to penguin that I was a vanilla pretty hard, so for me to counter claim would be suicide.

I think my early pressure should be on Accountant, as my last posts during the day we're all about wanting to know if I was being lead on. I think the case could be made for WIFOM, but I'm not sure if I've set myself up to be too newbtown to reference that and not draw attention to myself. I haven't played forum Mafia before, but I'm really not as dumb as I made myself out to be.

Who do you think is the most likely mislynch? If it's us, scarlet, icy, and accountant, I feel like accountant is split between icy and scarlet; icy between you and scarlet; and scarlet I'm not quite sure.

Also, I'm more than happy to perform the night kill, but a situation where I get tracked and you counterclaim looks quite a bit worse than you getting tracked and then counterclaiming. Thoughts?

It's late and I'll probably have more to say tomorrow, but I'm about to crash hard. Talk to you in the morning.

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Post Post #32  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:00 am

My internet has been really shitty and intermittent lately so it'd be a bad idea to make any plan where I throw down the hammer.

I think there's way too much potential for someone to unvote if they see one of us make a bad vote. It's probably best if we just let the votes fall and some time pass until a point where town starts thinking that scum would have quickhammered.

As far as a tracker claim for me: I could say anything for N1. My predecessor made a single post D1 and I didn't replace in until after D2 started. Tonight I would track Scarlet obviously because once I see the Huntress flip, that would tell me that Scarlet hopped onto a mislynch wagon and is the most likely scum. I'd say Scarlet visited no one.

Problem is, I'm almost certain to be tracked. Anyone pushing the me/Accountant team will realize that since Accountant is the more widely suspected, a scumteam of me/Accountant would involve me making the kill. If Icy thinks it's me and Penguin, he'll probably still track me. Scarlet might track me based on how much I pushed him. Accountant is paranoid of me so will probably track me.

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Post Post #33  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 9:13 am

That makes sense, definitely a better idea for me to do the killing then.

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Post Post #34  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:45 pm

Preliminary action (changeable up until the deadline):
Shadowlancerx kills PenguinPower

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Post Post #35  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:46 pm

Assuming the worst and you get lynched, what matchup do you think I've got the best chance of winning (i.e.: who should I kill assuming nothing changes)

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Post Post #36  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:03 pm

Assuming Penguin actually is the tracker (otherwise you'd have to kill whoever the tracker is next):

1. Accountant/Icy/Shadowlancer - Tossup. Icy is smart and can see that Accountant is town. Your best bet is push him and get Accountant to vote the other way. Maybe point out that I questioned Icy a bit but then backtracked and never went anywhere with it.

2. Accountant/Scarlet/Shadowlancer - You've got a really good chance of getting Scarlet to vote Accountant here. The other way around will be hard since I pushed Scarlet a lot. Just push the me/Accountant pairing.

3. Icy/Scarlet/Shadowlancer - This will be a crapshoot. Neither really suspects the other.

Basically, don't kill Accountant. You've got a chance at both getting him to vote wrong as well as getting him lynched by tying him to me. Best choose between Icy and Scarlet based on how D3 turns out.

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Post Post #37  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:13 pm

That's pretty much what I figured, especially since I don't think accountant could deal with the fact that he'd be this wrong again. Though he might be humbled enough to reconsider.

BlackVoid
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Post Post #38  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 6:20 pm

There were two reads Accountant was very sure about and pushed the hardest: Huntress and Icy. Since he was wrong about Huntress, subtly suggesting that he was at least right about Icy might be a great appeal-to-ego because if it's not Icy, then all of his reads were wrong. If you can subconsciously make him WANT Icy to be scum, you've got it in the bag.

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Post Post #39  (ISO)  » Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:27 pm

Ooh, that is good.

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Post Post #40  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 pm

Alright, so I did a re read and came up with some angles we could take. Here are some post numbers with notes as to their possible use:
Accountant:
114 (short, impulsive, )
116 (short, impulsive)
184 (okay with quick hammer)
187 (Trust)
224 (if hunt is town, "vote me", sell as a WIFOM)
256 (still dodges questions)
261 (still dodging)


Huntress
217 (strongest scum read is accountant)
249 (reads, valuable because confirmed town)
276 (calling accountant scum again)

Scarlet
201 (lynch me right now! Case for accountant)
277 (opportunistic jump on huntress, case for scarlet)

Penguin
186 (accountant leading town)
200 (wants an accountant lynch)
305 (case for icy killing PP)

BlackVoid
137 (case for scarlet/accountant)
218 (scum team probably has scarlet)

Icy
165 (admits inconsistency under pressure)
234 (doesn't know why accountant suddenly dropped case, sell as scum accountant seeing his wagon not gaining traction)
295 (scum team voting with accountant, case for scarlet)
306 (vote on pp)

BlackVoid
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Post Post #41  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:52 pm

Sweet. The main angle I'm going to push is Scarlet's opportunistic vote for Huntress. Now that we know Huntress was town, Scarlet's vote doesn't really make sense since he was more suspicious of Accountant than Huntress.

Unless Accountant attacks me, we're best off if I push Scarlet and you push Accountant. I'd try and get on Accountant's side. Icy is a wildcard and I'm not sure how I'd approach him but I suppose I'll go with the flow.

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Post Post #42  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:12 pm

I'm good with that. Icy is definitely the most problematic one here, because I would bet he still thinks accountant is town. If you take pressure, I'll soft bus, but I think a hard bus when I've had a "town read" on you is too suspicious. I'll avoid a vote unless it's the only way to keep my innocence. I don't expect to take pressure (except maybe from icy and I'd not be terribly shocked if scarlet says something), but if I do, what's your play? You've read me as town as everyone else has thus far.

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Post Post #43  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:15 pm

To add on, I would even offer up that if buy you as a partner to Accountant, but I'd prefer to lynch him first.

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Post Post #44  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:16 pm

If=I'd

BlackVoid
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Post Post #45  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:21 pm

If I can sell someone as your partner and you get a lot of pressure, I'll work my way into a bus. But I think our best shot is winning outright tomorrow so my main focus will be on trying to get a townie mislynched.

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Post Post #46  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:44 pm

Yup, I'm in full agreement, I just meant worst case scenario.

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Post Post #47  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 2:56 pm

As an FYI, I don't think I'll still be up when the game resumes tonight, so I'll have to hope in tomorrow.

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Post Post #48  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 3:05 pm

Hop*

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Post Post #49  (ISO)  » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:37 pm

Something I noticed, I don't know how to capitalize on it though, the same 4 who voted to lynch Huntress, also voted to lynch Blix on day 1 (it was nmego instead of you, and his was a RVS vote)

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