Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

[mhsmith0]

I think that mastina would probably do a decent job MODDING newbie games and talking about things and giving good advice postgame. I think that she's good at analyzing things when she knows the answers, but I think that she's much less good dealing with an environment of uncertainty and educated guesswork. I think balancing regular game play and ICing is, at least based on this game, not a strength of hers unfortunately. That said there are few ICs on site who I'd say are GOOD (Thor, nacho, and - and neither of them IC mass amounts like they used to), and it's not like she can't look at this games failure and potentially learn from it.

[pieg]

nach is a hero

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i am not a nacho alt

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Spoiler:

Did anyone else catch this!

For what it's worth, if ThinkBig

doesn't

deliver a metric fuckton of good content relatively soon,

I

will be lynching him.

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content








wait for it.....

VOTE: Alisae

Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

heroic newbie

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Dog townslipped like 20 times I really don't see how you aren't TRing that slot.

Well, there IS one pretty obvious potential explanation

[pieg]

Spoiler:

heroic wagon push by oldwino!!!!!!!!

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

heroic wagon push by oldwino!!!!!!!!

+1

[mhsmith0]

Hopefully this is a good replacement. Blawb replaced a scum slot in 1753 and I thought did a decent job picking up the pieces after his team had already collapsed, and at least avoided a town sweep.

[pieg]

zzzz

Not looking so hopeful.

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i spoke too soon!!!!

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

Ready for the metric fuckton of good content
Ah well, I never did understand the metric system. but I thought a "fuckton" would be more. In any case it was good enough for Mastina.

You should try isoing ThinkBig.

The thing about ThinkBig is that every time he gives content, it is more or less: good. It is what I was expecting. It is what I wanted. It is what I would think would be town.

But the thing about ThinkBig is also that his content is sporadic. You say there isn't content present, but there is. It's just a little bit inconsistent in its presence--stronger in some areas, much much much much much weaker in others.

So ThinkBig simultaneously

has

delivered the content I demanded...
...And

hasn't

delivered the content I demanded.
So no. It's not clearly good enough for me. It's weakly okay. It's good enough for me to not turbo-lynch ThinkBig--but it's not good enough for me to clear ThinkBig. I want to give him more time. Not to establish footing. But more, well honestly, give myself the time. To think about it. And maybe see more clearly definitive proof one side or another.

So I would still prefer not to lynch ThinkBig today.
I would still prefer to wait there a bit longer.

Not a single one of thinkbig's posts were good. Not one. I cannot fathom how in the world mastina could have come tot he conclusion his content was good if she had actually been reading and critically evaluating him. My guess is that she skimmed, saw he was posting stuff, and simply assumed his content was good because she had a pre-existing town read on the slot.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

I was prodded too. Trying to wait out Mastina's response to my criticism of TB and seeing whether she'd vote him or at least start to lean a little scummy on him. She says he's posted enough real content to keep her off his wagon, but is not convinced he is town, wants to give him more time. I still don't see it, I still think TB is holding back, and is now proposing a scum team of newbies to explain away the N action against Icy instead of Dark (two of his newbie scum teams include me, his long-time and consistent vote). Except for this recent post, I still think TB is mostly lurking, keeping his head down, and is now trying to turn the tables on me. But, I won't stay on his wagon for much longer if I don't get any more support. I'll spend my time instead figuring out where to move my vote, that is who is my #2 scum read now.

Is there any support out there for a Grey/TB wagon? Last call.
Another couple of hours and I'll move my vote if we don't take Grey/TB to L2 at least.

oldwino is being flat-out abandoned by the town, really sad to see

If it gets moving again, I'll put my vote back.

Just awful. Take some damn ownership of the game state! He's your top scum! Someone else is trying to get him lynched! Give a damn!

Guyz TB's vote on me is pure OMGUS.
He recognizes I'm tunneling yet apparently I'm scum so.....

"he's super scum but I'm not going to take any ownership in driving his wagon" - this is, fwiw, the kind of laziness around sorting/lynching TB that I'd expect from a scum when TB is town. Alisae and mastina are BOTH taking generically scummy approaches to the game state, and are being wagoned in substantial part due to this.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

It's been a couple of days and he hasn't said anything of substance yet.

Not so! His iso is actually full of content. Thus, not voting him.

However, it's less than what I was hoping for.
Thus, not strongly going out of my way to save him!

At this stage I won't

help

you wagon ThinkBig.
I also won't

hinder

you on ThinkBig.
This will remain until he tips the scales.

Basically a wishy-washy non-opinion. Notably, mastina is "coming around" to the possibility of ThinkBig being scum while vote parking on Alisae, who is not actually mastina's top scum (that's Chris). Her positions here don't jive at all with her vote in any reasonable manner (the unreasonable manner in which they tie together is the "information lynch" concept, which townies should basically never ever use, in part because it's a ridiculously easy concept for scum to hide their insincere votes behind, which then makes lynches LOWER information rather than higher). Mastina's approach here is (as with Alisae) generically scummy, and is actually consistent with how you might expect scum to behave in any number of scenarios. I don't think she realizes this at all, which is pretty unfortunate.

[PenguinPower]

Hopefully this is a good replacement. Blawb replaced a scum slot in 1753 and I thought did a decent job picking up the pieces after his team had already collapsed, and at least avoided a town sweep.

Not looking like it...

[mhsmith0]

Ironically...

Spoiler:

Blawb burying his vote on a relative obvtown where the wagon will almost certainly go absolutely nowhere may actually be helpful to town, especially if he gets gravitationally pulled towards voting ThinkBig, and I think given his stated positions, he's likely to be pretty open to voting TB with any kind of decent push in that direction (which HOPEFULLY alisae provides here)

[mhsmith0]

The mhsmith lynch was: mastina, DogWatch, Darklyn, RC, Grey

There's at least 1 scum on this Lynch, maybe 2. I read RC, mastina, and Darklyn (me) as town, which leaves me with DogWatch and Grey.

Spoiler:

Regardless of the actual alignments of everyone, this is generically poor thinking. IN GENERAL, you'd expect exactly one scum on a d1 lynch to be reasonably likely, but there are MANY games where it's zero or two, and there's no particular reason to think that the wagon was especially scum-driven, unless the actual in-game data said it was (instead, it looks like Blawb is simply ASSUMING it was due to an overly simplistic concept of wagonomics / VCA)

[mhsmith0]

I still think TB is mostly lurking, keeping his head down, and is now trying to turn the tables on me. But, I won't stay on his wagon for much longer if I don't get any more support. Is there any support out there for a Grey/TB wagon?

I don't see all the TB content mastina is referring to either. But who do you think we learn more from? A TB flip or a mastina flip?

Spoiler:

So this is almost entirely NOT dogwatch's fault by the way. A board mentality of allowing "information" lynches to be acceptable voting behavior is behind this, and that lies at the feet of the veterans who should know better (alisae, thinkbig and especially mastina who is supposed to be teaching people good theory instead of bad theory). But it's really frustrating to watch from dead thread

[mhsmith0]

VOTE: ThinkBig

Blawb come join me on TB.
You DO scumread him after all.

Spoiler:

Also as a substantive note, this (if it actually goes through) is in substantial part due to ThinkBig not hammering mastina when he had the chance. As the saying goes, "He who hesitates is lost"

[pieg]

Spoiler:

Would Alisae pull Blawb off of me and onto TB if he (alisae) was scum? Hunch says no, unless he thinks TB is the easier mislynch.

VOTE: TB

Very interested to see mastina's response to a TB wagon with real momentum. If they are in fact scum together, will she bus? Doubt it. She wrote the book on that.

http://i.imgur.com/vwMin.gif

[pieg]

Spoiler:

Would Alisae pull Blawb off of me and onto TB if he (alisae) was scum? Hunch says no, unless he thinks TB is the easier mislynch.

VOTE: TB

Very interested to see mastina's response to a TB wagon with real momentum. If they are in fact scum together, will she bus? Doubt it. She wrote the book on that.

Edit.

[pieg]

VOTE: ThinkBig

Blawb come join me on TB.
You DO scumread him after all.

Spoiler:

Also as a substantive note, this (if it actually goes through) is in substantial part due to ThinkBig not hammering mastina when he had the chance. As the saying goes, "He who hesitates is lost"

hahaahahahahahahah holy fuck

i didn't even read that before posting

[mhsmith0]

Lol was funny to see

[pieg]

great minds think alike XDXDXDXD

Spoiler:

mastina's posting has also improved continually over the course of this game fwiw

[mhsmith0]

great minds think alike XDXDXDXD

Spoiler:

mastina's posting has also improved continually over the course of this game fwiw

Spoiler:

it'll probably have to get a LOT better for her to survive after the thinkbig flip. I think I can see some improvement, but I think her whole treatment of tb is sketchy and surface level VERY consistent w his scumbuddy (clearing herself from his flip, while trying for anyone but him, and getting wispy-washy on him after there was momentum his way)

[mhsmith0]

Scum (because they already know who everyone is) really only have one job on day one, FIND PRS.

Spoiler:

This is very wrong fwiw. Scum's job is to get townies lynched. Their SECONDARY job is to find PRs.