Newbie 1779 | Spring | Dead Thread

[mhsmith0]

Grey did some things that made me suspicious that he was scum, however there are more than a few posts that are highly town motivated from the slot too. It's either scum gambiting like mad, or town that wasn't paying attention to the game. I've not seen a lot of their games, but Ali was convinced the slot was scum, and TB's play is not improving my opinion one bit. I still see the slot as shady and wouldn't be opposed to seeing their flip, but Mastina is the one I am reluctant to let go of. I feel she's too good a player to give time to.

@oldwino I was townleaning on RC, and Ali's only improved the slot imo. Highly doubt that he's scum. I was worried it was confbias as I usually read RC as town (and just played with town-Ali where he was very similar to this game) but ISOs do nothing to make me suspect the slot.

VOTE: DogWatch

I went through DogWatch's ISO, and can say with confidence that he is more concerned looking townie than helping the town.

I get a similar feeling but didn't think it was AI, but do you think this is more indicative of scum than newbie - if so, why?

Spoiler:

Practically a confession of being scum with ThinkBig. Hedges like crazy on the actual TB read, while continuing to push for mastina to be lynched first for bullshit reasons (OMG she's a good player can't give her time! ). Were he scum with non-TB, he'd almost certainly be more objectively open to the possibility of flipping and would be figuring out how he can get the alternative TB wagon pushed through.

It saddens me that no one still alive is able to see how obvious both scum are being right now (it's fairly obvious to me that mastina either lacks the energy to look at and think this through, or just lacks the judgement/experience to see what ought to be fairly compelling on the very surface for someone with a decent amount of experience scum-hunting)

[mhsmith0]

Yes. Mastina is still my strongest scum read.

No need to go over day 1 again, but on Day 2 Alisae entered the game post 892 to a slot Mastina and I were both town reading. Three hours later Mastina voted Alisae.936

Three....Hours....Into...Day....Two.

Not exactly giving him much time to get established, like she was willing to do with Thinkbig.

Enter Chris who attacks her and now Mastina says the scum team is Alisae and Chris, and there is no way in hell that is the scum team.

Spoiler:

Unfortunately "bad" (even "really really really bad") and "scum" are not the same thing. This entire read is essentially "mastina is too awful to be town", when in fact it's basically the opposite; actual scum almost always aren't as transparently bad as she's been.

[mhsmith0]

Still staying on DogWatch, sorry guys.

We all mostly agree that DW is scummy;

the only argument here is that we might be mistaking scuminess for newb-ness. I don't like that argument, because I still think that DW's main focus is appearing town - more so than helping the town. Even newer players would have the tone of wanting to Lynch someone / help the town, but I'm really not seeing that in DW.

Spoiler:

basically no one agrees w that actually

[mhsmith0]

IC note: this is borderline against site rules as we have rules against trust tells and also rules stating you must play to your wincon--deliberately sabotaging one alignment for the sake of another violates those standards. Never ever do that. EVER.

Spoiler:

Yes, from now on only UNINTENTIONALLY sabatoge your wincon as a specific alignment

And your right again, my perspective is from town (why do you think that is). Yet your perspective is from scum (thank you for admitting that). Why is your perspective not from town?

About that. Remember what I said in my opening post?

My view on the game is impossible to succinctly summarize, but basically I see it as a social game focusing largely on psychology, with some logistics/statistics, balancing possibilities versus probabilities.
One quirk I have is viewing every player simultaneously as town and scum. I view each possibility, and then I weigh them, to determine probability. Which makes more sense? I set guidelines. I'll see each player as town and scum in a given moment, by the balance of probability.

...An extension of this is that I don't think in just one perspective.

I think in

every

perspective.
I have to think of EVERY mathematical combination, and I do.
I run the math on literally every possible scumteam.
Inherent in this process, is that I have to think like scum, in order to determine how likely that scum pairing would be: "how likely would it be for this scumteam to act in the way we have seen them act in-thread?" And applied to every team. Then further entering the picture is the opposite side. "How likely would it be for this player to be town acting this way?" I literally think in every possibility.

So it's not that I think in terms of town.
Or think in terms of scum.
It's that I think in terms of

everything

. Literally everything. Not just one side. ALL sides. Literally every fucking single one of them.

FWIW, I don't think it's possible to have reads as ossified and lazy as mastina has had in this game while actually doing this. Pretty sure mastina is just lying to herself about her process here. Also pretty sure the board will interpret it as her lying to them instead, since on the surface it very much seems like that's what she's doing here.

Even if I was scum, my buddy isn't going to directly help push my wagon. Just sayin.

True enough, though it's not mutual...



Which reminds me. Now that it's over, I can share with you that I've known Alisae was scum in this game since March 16th. I suspected (and as of March 15th, knew) Grey was town in that same game. So literally from the

moment

D2 began, I have had a very recent encounter with Alisae as scum and Grey as town and that was and still is influencing my read.

This is one of those times where actually explaining the read would be helpful. Being as opaque as humanly possible, in addition to being explicitly against IC guidelines, also means that town!Alisae is going to be MORE inclined to push against mastina for being full of shit (and scum!Alisae has a decent incentive to do the same), which means that, just as on day one, mastina is doing things that make it MORE difficult to figure out whether people are town or scum based on how they deal with her.

btw we have 3 days do decide on a deadline lynch.

I have my eye on the deadline, and believe me, I make sure that I am around at the time of it or hammer before the time of it. However, that is the only circumstance in which I will actually vote ThinkBig: to hammer before deadline.

Though, to be honest.
I'd kinda expect ThinkBig to self-hammer regardless of his alignment, just with the timing/circumstances/reasoning differing.

Just like mastina was around EOD1
I'm actually going to just post a bunch of lol's the rest of the way if she no-shows EOD2 like she did EOD1 and then afterwards gives a wall that boils down to "I was watching but decided I didn't feel like participating"

Not exactly giving him much time to get established, like she was willing to do with Thinkbig.

Different players, different reads, different expectations, different circumstances, different timing. Take your pick, because all five apply.

For instance, Alisae had a chance to read the game during the night.
ThinkBig did not.

Enter Chris who attacks her and now Mastina says the scum team is Alisae and Chris,

and there is no way in hell that is the scum team

.

I think you have a timing problem. I noted my issues with Chris before he was Chris.

The substantive issue discussed by Icy here is that Alisae/Chris doens't make sense as a team. Mastina completely dodges this point that Icy is VERY OBVIOUSLY making here because she doens't want to mentally engage with it. Instead she merely addresses the timing point, which was transparently the LESSER of his two points while dodging the hell out of the GREATER of the two points he was making. That's objectively a scum post by her fwiw.

[mhsmith0]

The fact that the only two cleared townies (myself and Icy from lack of CC) are off the wagon should say something.

My money is on oldwino and DogWatch, which could very well be a scum pair from what I've read

. I'm willing to Lynch either of them, but mastina and TB are off the table.

Spoiler:

Sigh...
I mean, the fact that two cleared townies are off the wagon generically makes it SLIGHTLY more likely that it's scum-driven, but it's an incredibly weak source of reasoning, almost totally decoupled from the details of what is happening and why. Positing an oldwino/dogwatch scum team is just awful reasoning, and the only thing at all supporting it is that mastina suspected them both day 1, which is once again terrible reasoning, since she never actually had any good reason to suspect them (just a bunch of bad reasons).

[PenguinPower]

Hopefully this is a good replacement.

Spoiler:

The fact that the only two cleared townies (myself and Icy from lack of CC) are off the wagon should say something.

My money is on oldwino and DogWatch

, which could very well be a scum pair from what I've read. I'm willing to Lynch either of them, but mastina and

TB are off the table

.

Mastina, because I really do believe that she is a townie. I know it sounds idiotic of me to say I have a good read on her, but I will defend her on her play in this game so far. TB looks like a vote that seems to be the "safest" but not the best. You will not get any help from me on his wagon today (and

I probably won't be alive tomorrow

, so...).

Sorry, smith.

[mhsmith0]

Spoiler:

It's ok, shit happens. That said, I'm kind of sick of eating a bunch of losses that I don't especially deserve, but that seems to be like the essential definition of my town meta (IIRC I've described it somewhere as "Town MVP in a losing town" and I don't know I'd go quite that high here, but my mislynch was pretty idiotic [and driven by two VI's, darklyn and mastina], and my dying reads were exceptionally on track [behavioral POE of RC and the two scum on day one is very solid even if my team constructions were off]). That I'm somehow STILL above .500 in town win rate on site is I think amazing given the sheer scale of ridiculous losses that I've eaten (of which this won't even crack the top five most likely).

[pieg]

Spoiler:

dw is the most objectively obvtown slot in the game >_>

[mhsmith0]

Intent to put TB at L-1.

Spoiler:

[PenguinPower]

Intent to put TB at L-1.

Spoiler:

Spoiler:

I broke out laughing.

[mhsmith0]

I feel like in the future...

Spoiler:

I'll probably just point to this game any time I'm wagoned early game as a "here's what happens if you get rid of smith"

I can also point to the game where it was effectively 8v1 nightless (8v2 to start, but day 1 was a scum lynch and a mechanic made it nearly impossible to NK after first scum lynch), town "fuck you" lynched me (basically I wasn't nice enough to someone who was SUPER thin-skinned and yelled a lot), then decided to get rid of two of my three locktown reads (all were correct), while giving a lazy town read to the last scum for something not hard to fake, and managed to actually LOSE that game

The chronicle of "how the hell did this happen to me" town losses is long and probably a lot funnier to hear about for someone who didn't actually suffer through all of them

[pieg]

haven't been able to keep up with the game

[mhsmith0]

Obviously my preferred lynch today is Mastina. I believe Thinkbig will flip town. Not only that but it's possible Mastina has been lining up his flip for town credit the whole game. Thinkbigs lack of participation is questionable, other than that I just don't see it.

Alisae is town because RC was town.

Chris is town. I don't even remember who was in the slot before Pieg, but he was town, Pieg was town, Lemon was town until he left the game (that was a bit questionable) but his posts read town to me.

That leaves me with a Mastina partner of Dog, or OW.

Either could be her Scum buddy. This is my third game, and the first two were won by scum teams consisting of a newb player who played exactly like Dog has this game. Both got town credit for townslips from the veteran players. Given that, my gut still tells me Dog is town and the other scum is OW. He has been driving the train for TB sense the start of the day. He does post LAMIST often, and (in my view) at least subconsciously hinted both his top reads would flip town. He has also held on to the RC/Grey scum team well past it's expiration. Town OW would not be pushing that scum team.

Spoiler:

"I think this person is town. I think this other person is scum. To hell with explaining why"

That standard of communication is utterly unacceptable by any town player. That it's happening at all is I think a function if the bad example that has been set for the newbies by people who should theoretically know better. I don't particularly think I was guilty of it, but if I was then I apologize.

[mhsmith0]

But you see she didn't disappear at the end of D1 as a matter of fact she already posted that she came online right as grey hammered.

Spoiler:

This is not what she said (not that it's hugely indicative either way):

She hasn't posted now in several days and I'm surprised she hasn't replaced out as well.

I posted Tuesday.
The lynch happened on Wednesday. Literally seconds before I logged on. (Well, the hammer happened prior to that, but I saw the thread was unlocked when I was logged off. I logged in, and by the time I got to the thread, the thread was locked. If you're interested, you can check the time of Huntress posting the final VC for the day, and my sitewide activity around that point. Prior to the lock, my last post was basically a full day ago. After the lock, I almost immediately was posting elsewhere, because I was intending to post

here

, was prevented from doing so, and went on to do my other sitewide activity chores.)

If you are interested in the exact specifics, I was reading the thread while offline (something I don't often do, but sometimes will for various reasons equally beneficial to both alignments), and I was noticing mhsmith towntelling left and right. I wanted to make a post where I acknowledged him doing so, but keeping my vote on him for two main reasons--one, doubting an extension would be granted with him as literally the only viable lynch. And two, wanting to have him confirmed as town rather than simply probable town.

In that same post, I was going to request that mhsmith give essentially a summary of his most up-to-date thoughts, so I wouldn't have to read between the lines and sift through all of his posting to figure out his reads with perfect clarity and accuracy. (I instead settled for asking the mod to convey essentially that same message to him, including an apology for the unfortunate clash and lamenting the lack of him towntelling earlier because if he had done what he did in the middle of the day rather than at the end of the day I most certainly WOULD have unvoted.)

Of course, none of my reasons here are verifiable until postgame (for instance, an alternative viewpoint you

could

argue is that I was scum intentionally lurking, and specifically waited to log in until it was too late, even though that is a tactic I would NEVER stoop so low as to use as a scum IC because it is teaching a bad practice), but the timing itself is very easily verified. Just look at where I was posting and when. There were no contemporary posts on Wednesday, the day of the lynch, prior to the lynch; there were posts on Wednesday, the day of the lynch, literally minutes after the lynch had happened.

In fact, mastina openly admitted to strategically lurking, but put a "I did it for the sake of the town" bow on it (this dressing up of her behavior is suss as hell fwiw). "I was going to participate, but then decided not to bother and instead have the mod apologize for my end of the clash, and oh by the way his mislynch was still his own fault mainly".

I wanted to make a post where I acknowledged him doing so, but keeping my vote on him for two main reasons--one, doubting an extension would be granted with him as literally the only viable lynch. And two, wanting to have him confirmed as town rather than simply probable town.

^
That in particular is just apalling and debatably worth a policy lynch by itself.

[mhsmith0]

This sums it up for me, minus the mastina part. If town can narrow it down to {mastina, oldwino, DogWatch}, and everyone pretty much agree on that, I'll lynch mastina today. I'll be watching this thread - if that's the decision you guys want to make, give me hammer and I'll get it done.

Spoiler:

yes, yes, lets all narrow it down to a POE entirely of smiths town reads. Even better, let's do it just because of gut and feels. Even better, let's do this while the actual scum are outing he selves in the thread. Sometimes I truly wonder why I even bother.

[mhsmith0]

Although I think it's slightly scummy to not even support someone you read as town, this is what mastina would do as town. The games I've read show that mastina acts scummier when town, and acts townier when scum. I still believe that she is town, but I'm willing to Lynch her if it pushes oldwino and DogWatch into the center stage.

Spoiler:

Once again you get a toxic mess by enabling bullshit "information" lynches. It's no wonder at all that town is making terrible decisions when an environment of utter mush has not just been enabled but ENCOURAGED by people who should 100% know better. How can ANYONE (barring people who have god-tier reading ability) effectively scum-hunt in this environment where there's no accountability for anything people say or do? Mastina is about 80% to blame for this, but it's also a board-wide failure.

[mhsmith0]

I really don't like where my top two scum reads are in relationship to this wagon. I hope I'm wrong and mastina is scum, but I doubt it.

Intent to hammer.

Going after oldwino and DogWatch tomorrow, right guys? That was the deal...

TB/Wino/Dog for me tomorrow right now, but out of the three I'd rather have TB. Have to see if TB actually posts anything good, or the flip/nk tells us anything fun, before I know where I'm going to push the most tomorrow.

Spoiler:

Obvious distancing is obvious

[mhsmith0]

Chris, if TB is your top scum read, why didn't you join that wagon and take him to L1?

Spoiler:

OK question by wino, even if in this case the answer is "he's my top scum other than mastina"

[mhsmith0]

Apologies for the delay.
I was busy ending one of my other games, which required devoting a significant amount of my time to, and also just as importantly, sitewide NOT devoting time to games. (As in, if I was spending time on this game when I had the need to spend time on that game, it would have been very visible and bad for that game, so my activity across all games has been suffering since waiting for that game to conclude.)

I will be able to talk more extensively when I get an official mod announcement the game has ended, so please hold for about an hour or two.

Spoiler:

"i was strategically lurking in ANOTHER game therefore decided to do so here too."
Also firebringer already announced game end, and had done so before this post was made.

[pieg]

what the fuck happened to this game

[pieg]

i thought they were lynching tb

[pieg]

zzzzzzzzzz fuck this game i'm not gonna bother reading this a town loss

[mhsmith0]

Town has... a 5% chance? And it's sad since scum is playing badly too.

[mhsmith0]

Mastina prioritizing postgame talk from her scum win over participating in this game when it's like 12 hours to EOD and she's l-1 and she's the IC is I think typical of her investment in this game. I say this knowing that I've actually been talking to her there and that she will very likely see this soon but not caring about a game this close to deadline as an IC is not ok, even if it's technically not against the rules.

[pieg]

Alisae is town because RC was town.

What if I told you that RadiantCowbells is notorious for having a good scumgame and that him looking so town is probably a sign that he is scum? (Also me having initially read him as town. That's a fairly good sign he's actually scum. Go ask him yourself postgame; he knows I'm right about me needing to flip my read on him. )

????????