when i read it i kicked myself when psa claimed jk bc i felt you might've been able to just slamdunk both scum there with a cop claim from shadow. well played
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:44 am
by mhsmith0
Thanks! I feel like that was one of my better games even if my reads were up and down. Something to be said for just super WIMing a game from time to time.
I'll also note fwiw that I got a LOT more high energy on day 3 in that one after Grey by all appearances did a strategic sub-out here. I was like "oh I am NOT losing that that guy" and my energy level went up a pretty decent amount after that point. Obv couldn't talk about that there since this is ongoing, but it did impact what I was doing.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:50 am
by mhsmith0
Also
Spoiler:
viewtopic.php?p=9014908#p9014908
REALLY ought to go with a vote on Chris. You think he's lockscum? VOTE HIM! GET HIM LYNCHED! None of this "let's get more information" nonsense, just lynch the likeliest scum.
Talking about connections and associations generally isn't really optimal, but it happens naturally over the course of the game sometimes (and I'd note that I was talking about it essentially in twilight as part of leaving a legacy as opposed to it being something that I was strongly encouraging as optimal play or the like)... but deciding NOT to lynch the likeliest scum is a good idea approximately 5% of the time, and that 5% is essentially stuff like needing to hunt a scum vig, needing to pick off specifically one scum team or the other in multiball, or similar situations.
You think someone's lock scum? Great! LYNCH HIM! You have a mechanically outed scum? Great! LYNCH HIM! Bird in the hand today, and whatever birds lying in the bushes you want to chase tomorrow are tomorrow's problems.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 10:55 am
by mhsmith0
Also it's not EXACTLY the same, but I do think something from my standard IC post is reasonably comparable to waht we've seen in this game:
Spoiler:
Spoiler: Game review of a poor town performance, by one of the winning mafia (CTR)
Colonel Thomas Rainsborough wrote:
So this wasn’t the most successful of towns. Mostly this was because it was insane. It took ill with anyone using logic and rather than letting data drive its conclusions it preferred to invent enticing conclusions and narratives and then make the evidence fit those pet theories. We were in some sort of weird perpetual confirmation bias world.
Again it took ill with anyone who objected. Of course, prominent townies will take much of the heat for this, but to be fair there was some mafia skill in fostering and harnessing this town insanity.
The major difference here is that it lacked people objecting to it that the rest of the town would then take ill with (also lacked scum effectively adding to the insanity, mostly because no real effort by scum has really been needed). Mild objections had popped up at times from oldwino and dogwatch (oldwino is practically a hero at this point for actually sticking to his guns to some degree on grey/thinkbig rather than allowing himself to go with the lazy thread flow)
And I really don't blame the two newbies (DW/OW) for any of this. AT ALL. They're supposed to have some basic level of competent support from their more experienced teammates, and said support has essentially failed to exist at all. Which is unfortunate for them, and just kind of unpleasant to watch from the sidelines as well.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:01 am
by pieg
dw removed her avatar ):
Spoiler:
yes it's very disappointing how the newbies have had NO guidance this game. day 1 was also fairly bad and that 1v1 between you and grey didn't exactly push the game in any positive direction. i agree with dw that experienced players are too concerned with winning / making plays and not concerned enough with fostering a healthy teaching atmosphere.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:09 am
by mhsmith0
I think DW's comments are probably fair, if unfortunate. Hopefully she isn't completely turned off by the site form this or other games
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:11 am
by mhsmith0
I think the idea that veterans are more concerned with winning / making plays compared to creating a healthy teaching atmosphere is probably very correct, FWIW. I personally think that everyone ought to be putting some empahsis into teaching and helping people learn (in dead chat in another game, someone commented that SEs shouldn't be teaching at all, and only ICs should, which in my mind is precisely wrong, and not just because most ICs don't care about teaching for the most part).
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:35 am
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1224, mastina wrote:There are three viable scumteams with ChrisOrmie, and each of them is a strong possibility. ChrisOrmie flipping town eliminates them all, but does nothing to reduce the chances of a player being scum: oldwino, ThinkBig, and Alisae all lose one scumteam, and DogWatch continues to have one viable scumteam, meaning we still have four suspects come mylo.
Now admittedly. All of these make the assumption the lynched player flips town. This is quite the assumption to make. However, taking a precaution and assuming the worst-case scenario of a town flip is simply smart play when it comes to laying out possibilities and probabilities, as it allows you to lay out a plan which maximizes expected win value given the WORST possibilities. If instead the BEST possibilities turn out to be true (i.e., we get a scumflip), then a lot of this planning becomes superfluous.
Butyeah. This is the math explained. This is how you handle logistics in mafia games. This is probabilities, this is statistics, this is the logical aspect of the game: pure, simple number-crunching. By the numbers, an Alisae lynch gives us the best information. Alisae flips town, we literally eliminate almost all of the viable scumteams. Alisae flips scum, we lynched scum and have some flexibility in hunting viable teams. (Namely, that there are only three possible partners with a mislynch to spare, giving us two shots to hit scum in three slots, 66% odds in our favor just by random, and by doing interactions with flipped scum we can increase this even further.)
Just shameful. This logic ONLY makes any sense at all if somehow everyone is presuming mastina cannot be scum, which is ridiculous on the face of it since mastina is currently being wagoned. You ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS lynch the likeliest scum. Mastina actively choosing NOT to lynch the likeliest scum flies in the face of reason, and she's spewed out a giant word salad to justify her ridiculous position.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:36 am
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1225, ThinkBig wrote:I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.
THANK GOD that ThinkBig doesn't have the balls to scum-hammer here.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 11:45 am
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1228, mastina wrote:(For what it's worth, I don't know how much mhsmith agrees or disagrees with me, but in the dead thread if he's commenting there he should be able to back me up here in that what I've said is more true than not in his opinion. I don't think he'd agree with everything I've said. But he should back me on MOST of what I've said because damn fucking straight I know what I am saying is true because that is experience gained from literally 200-300 games on this site alone. The place for logic in games is in dealing with interactions and noting their possibility or lack thereof. All other applications of logic are secondary.)
I agree that there are situations where the kind of analysis mastina is talking about is useful. I completely disagree that she's applying it appropriately, even ignoring that I know the correct answer.
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative. Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
No kill is bad for scum, and mod said BP wouldn't know if they'd been targeted or even if their 1-shotBP was gone. Pretty sure scum went after Icy last night.
While it is certainly a probability that there was in fact a shot at the BP last night, I find it down-right hilarious that these two players felt the absolute NEED to insist on this being true back to back to one another using near-identical wording.
This makes it LESS likely that they're teammates rather than more. Which just continues to support that idea that you should be lynching the scummiest half of the pair instead of "information" lynching.
In post 1153, ThinkBig wrote:Um...I don't see Chris sheeping Alisae. Am I missing something here?
Look at the names both players are pushing and just as importantly the REASONS and LOGIC behind said pushes.
The names have significant overlap, and the reasoning is nigh-identical.
Scum blatantly sheep each other like that fairly rarely (DS doing so in 1774 with Grey was a pretty interesting and unusual play, part of which I didn't think it was him). Which suggests that the prevailing worldview is wrong, which suggests a different approach is needed.
PS It's the day before MYLO. MAYBE you can screw around with info lynches on day 1, but on day 2 in a micro you need to hit scum. Full blast. So maximize your scum lynch probabilities.
PPS Chris has been fairly active, and completely blatantly watned to shut down Alisae vs ThinkBig. This means that a scum lynch of Chris provides a LOT of information (namely, that smith was utterly correct about RC/Grey being town/scum), which means that not only is his lynch optimal due to being scummy, it's also INCREDIBLY information-rich.
PPPS "How much do we learn from a TOWN flip" is just bad thinking. Minimizing the consequences of a mislynch is a SECONDARY consideration, with lynching scum being the PRIMARY consideration. Just basic theory there.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:09 pm
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1236, ThinkBig wrote:@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.
1) bullshit
2) look at thinkbig doing absolutely nothing with that emotionally devoid observation
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:32 pm
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1245, DogWatch wrote:UNVOTE: mastina
until I can sort through these last couple pages
In post 1246, mastina wrote:If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.
One MIGHT, if one cares to look, notice how ThinkBig has a STRONG preference not to lynch Chris. How ThinkBig talked to Alisae as if Alisae was town while trying to lynch him. How ThinkBig had very little interest in sorting the board, in giving substantive engagement, or in being villagery at all.
Let us all bow our heads and pray, nay, hope, that this gets noticed.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 12:57 pm
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1246, mastina wrote:...In the span of three fucking hours. THREE HOURS. You went from having an Alisae wagon at L-1. To having a mastina wagon at L-1. Three fucking hours. To have a reversal in the game.
If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
let's see what our scummies rising star has to say on the subject...
In post 108, Dwlee99 wrote:Are we seriously analyzing wagon speed to see if aero is town or not??
Baddddd
@newbies/learners: In the future, please don't use wagon speed arguments. Wagon speed is pretty fundamentally NAI and doesn't really mean much of anything, especially if it comes without substantive reasoning. For instance, "look at all of these empty hop ons", "look at this terrible reasoning", etc - THOSE can be meaningful analysis-wise. "It happened fast" doesn't actually mean anything for the most part.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:25 pm
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
In post 1248, mastina wrote:However, I also have about equal experience with ThinkBig. If ThinkBig acts a way I expect him to act as town (I think he is), then that townread is augmented. If ThinkBig acts in a way I expect him to as scum (I don't think he has), then that townread would be thrown into question. (There's also the fact that ThinkBig could easily have hammered me if he were scum, and receive virtually no flak for it, so. That, too.)
I cannot possibly imagine what mastina thinks that ThinkBig would be doing as town that coincides with what he has actually been doing.
Other than transparently useless posts (of which there are many), you have gems like
In post 1107, ThinkBig wrote:I see Alisae is at L-2. What is the case on Alisae?
Null at absolute best (good town would actually bother to look up the case, or engage with people who are pushing Alisae, or do SOMETHING to try and solve; lazy town could post this though so it's basically null)
In post 1135, mastina wrote:To be honest. This is actually my stance right now. The lemonator slot is actually a larger scumread than Alisae. I think Alisae is scum, but I'm not absolutely sure; I'm pretty damn sure that lemonator's slot is scum.
If you are more confident in Chris' slot being scum, why are you voting for Alisae over him?
Just about the one and only time there's a suggestion of a potential opportunistic hop towards chris (making them less likely). The relatively empty theory question is debatably ThinkBig's BEST contribution to the thread to date, despite it's just a question that doesn't bother saying anything about what HE thinks (tho there's an implication here of preferring a chris to alisae lynch)
Theory question
: Is it better to lynch a player who is more likely to flip scum or a player who's flip would be more informative to town?
In post 1130, Alisae wrote:Yeah I believe scum!Grey would get into a fight with RC
I've played several games with Grey/RC. They always seem to get into some sort of fight regardless of alignment. Hell, I even get into fights with Grey/RC.
In post 1081, DogWatch wrote:There's also something to be said for the ulti/pieg/lemon slot being replaced AGAIN.
I would agree with this if this wasn't a newbie game. In Newbie 1746, for example, there was a slot that had 3 people replace out. That slot flipped town jailkeeper.
VERY CLEAR intention to defend chris. He's working to defray attention away from that slot. NO ONE noticed this. Also in terms of productive substance it's entirely defense-oriented, which is much more natural scum behavior. Also "ooh this counter-example happened that one time" is a substance-less objection. Mastina's poitn is that it makes it LIKELY that chris is scum, TB just effectively says "well yeah but it's not certain".
In post 1083, Icy wrote:It seems to me that the town learns so much more from a Alisae flip than a Lemon flip.
This is also true though, since the slot hasn't produced actual content basically all game. The closest was pieg, and even there, not really much. pieg asked lots of questions, but didn't really do much with them. (The closest we get is casting shade on oldwino, which reduces the chance of the newbie-scumteam. Also, 584 looks like pieg knew oldwino was town.)
I disagree with your interpretation of this post. HOWEVER, I will say that it is quite telling that he says that lurking is anti-town behavior and then requests a replacement.
In post 1147, DogWatch wrote:do we actually know icy was attacked? could there have been no night action at all?
townslip and even if this isn't a townslip I don't see why scum would push this narative.
Occam's Razor deduces that Icy was attacked rather then Scum pulling a no-kill gambit.
I have to agree with you here.
Empty +1.
In post 1158, ThinkBig wrote:Dogwatch is my top town read right now. I would like to try and sort ChrisOrmie, mastina, and alisae. I like Chris' entrance, though I was not a big fan of what I saw from some of his predecessors.
Sheeps the consensus about the #1 town. Says he wants to sort chris/mastina/alisae, says he likes chris while hedging
In post 1175, ThinkBig wrote:Nice shades. I actually miscounted and thought I put you at L-2.
Anyway what is your case against Grey/My slot?
demands alisae produce a case against his slot (as if that hadn't already happened)
In post 1177, ThinkBig wrote:Can you point those out and why you think it is scum aligned opportunistic?
demands someone else do work, no substance here either
In post 1178, ThinkBig wrote:You came in here and admitted the only thing you bothered to read was Grey's ISO. It seems like you were hell bent on tunneling on Grey before you even came in.
accuses Alisae of being biased and exhibiting unethical OOG behavior. Also this comes from a "you're town" perspective WHILE HE IS VOTING HIM
In post 978, Alisae wrote:Staaaawp.
Grey is going to get townread as either alignment majority of the time. One of the things about his scumgame is A. He hates playing scum and B. Either way his game is going to be clean.
There's a contradiction here. You are saying that you are confident that Grey/my slot is scum, yet you are saying that his game is going to be clean. How do those two possibly connect?
Minor point at absolute best. The obvious implication here is "Grey plays scum well but I can read him" which is of course more or less exactly what Alisae answers. It's a transparently lazy question that answers itself, along with an explicit accusation of a contradiction when it's pretty transparent no contradiction exists.
In post 1185, ThinkBig wrote:Alisae, if you're actually town, then you really need to pull out of your tunnel and confirmation bias. Did you learn anything from Witch Trial's Mafia? The TVT bullshit from you and dreal cost town the game. I'm not having a repeat of that here.
"We're TvT" Given the context of TB voting Alisae, this is a SUPER scummy post. Also amusing that mastina picks up on this from Chris, but not from TB, but she seems to be incredibly weak to conf!bias and ossified opinions so *shrugs*
In post 1188, ThinkBig wrote:Um you were death tunneling me at twilight 1 and from what I recall, you still TR'd Grey even after his god awful hammer.
In post 1225, ThinkBig wrote:I don't like how quickly the wagon on mastina formed and don't like Alisae's jump from me to mastina. Mastina's frustration feels town. Masina/Alisae is probably not a team.
wagon speed is a bad argument. defends mastina but doesn't really DO anything about it. weak objection to a L-1 wagon, the sort of thing that would never convince anyone to actually move off the wagon, just a "well I oppose it" nearly empty stance
In post 1145, Darklyn wrote:ChrisOrmie is basically sheeping Alisae like I suspected he would, lulz
^That.
Where is the sleeping? Him sheeping would have been him voting me, not him voting you and Formica new wagon
Objects to the push against chris. Funny how often this happens
In post 1236, ThinkBig wrote:@mastina, thanks for that information. I did some browsing in the archives and found that day 1 scum lynches were more likely to result in a scum win than a town win.
1) this is probably bullshit
2) who cares? he isn't doing a damn thing with this observation
In post 1241, mastina wrote:So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?
^^ This. So much this.
I really hate how Alisae's wagon got derailed and how your wagon got to L-1 in less than 4 hours.
Sheeps mastina's objection on wagon speed, doesn't actually DO anything with that, including, you know, SORTING the people on her wagon
So are you a fucking hypocrite, or just opportunistic scum willing to drop literally everything about Grey just because it's convenient?
No, I'm saying TB does that. AKA that's apart of his meta.
I usually don't do that stuff.
1. I put you at L-2. Not L-1.
2. I really hate using meta because it can be easily manipulated and exploited.
1) Who cares. Factual objection that doesn't really matter
2) Empty objection, doesn't do anything with it other than objecting to Alisae's usage of it
In post 1246, mastina wrote:If that doesn't tell you my wagon is driven by scum, I don't know WHAT will.
I completely agree with this. The way Chris derailed Alisae's wagon and Alisae was quick to hop on to the wagon gives even more credibility to an Alisae/Chris scum team.
Likes an Alisae/Chris team, while pushing against any shade on chris, and making numerous posts suggesting that Alisae is simply bad/biased town.
This is seriously not hard. And I have not the slightest clue what mastina expects from town!TB that somehow she thinks she is seeing here
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:44 pm
by mhsmith0
In post 1252, mastina wrote:I do admit, I have neglected to directly engage Darklyn (though that's honestly largely because I feel he doesn't need much help)
In post 1237, mastina wrote:Siteflaking is null.
Requesting replacement with no justification is--while not a strong indicator of scum--at the very least, sketchy coming from newbies. (This is a newbie-specific tell.)
Yo, mhsmith
, you're the stat nerd.
I'd actually be quite interested in whether what I say here is actually objectively true, but it'd require you to manually track each and every reason for a given slot replacement (not to mention, manually tracking if the holder of the slot is a newbie since this is a newbie-specific tell) which I'm not sure how easy/hard it'd be, but if it's something you
could
do, I'd love to know whether what I'm saying here is backed by hard evidence rather than just personal experience. (Basically it's something that my gut tells me is true: flaking from the game is null, but requesting replacement if a newbie is >random scum.)
Don't need spoiler here: replacement rate is objectively higher among scum players, see spreadsheet at viewtopic.php?f=5&t=39739.
Player Slots Replaced Players Replaced Total Slots Slot Rate Player Rate
Town Nb 660 787 1740 37.9% 45.2%
Scum Nb 209 272 482 43.4% 56.4%
Town SE 190 209 798 23.8% 26.2%
Scum SE 61 68 236 25.8% 28.8%
Town IC 32 35 311 10.3% 11.3%
Scum IC 15 15 96 15.6% 15.6%
So scum newbies have an objectively higher rates of slots replacing out, and an EVEN HIGHER rate of having multiple replace outs of the same slot (some noise since sometimes the 2nd/3rd etc holder of a newbie slot is not a newbie but with a large sample size, that SHOULD be simple statistical noise).
THAT SAID, it's a pretty squick and cheap/angleshooting way to solve, since it kind of fucks over someone who /ins to replace just because of a higher likelihood of scum among newbie replace slots. For instance, MU as a sitewide policy strongly discourages to outright bans discussion of replacing as a basis for reads, essentially for that very reason. And by "bans" I mean "there are games where you can get modkilled for using the fact that a slot was replaced as a basis to scumread someone"
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 1:53 pm
by mhsmith0
Now, what mastina ACTUALLY asked is about the reason-specific rate, but there's no hard data on that since it's not tracked, and I doin't actually care enough about that to do the presumably arduous work involved in tracking it. But yes, the replace rate itself is SOMEWHAT AI (unfortunately).
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:01 pm
by pieg
heroic scumhunting and gamesolving from the dead thread
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:04 pm
by mhsmith0
In fairness I'm spoiled, but GEEZ this isn't a hard game
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:04 pm
by pieg
mastina gets too caught up in her own narratives
and her ego is too big to allow anyone to pull her out of them
:/
pedit it really isn't
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 2:34 pm
by mhsmith0
Spoiler:
Basically. I mean I diagnosed her as badtown like mid day one, for someone who theoretically cared about my opinion you'd THINK she'd be embarrassed at that and actually WORK to be better but obv that's not something that's a priority for her unfortunately.
Posted: Thu Mar 23, 2017 6:02 pm
by pieg
Spoiler:
no offense to mastina but i think she just probably shouldn't ic
