Newbie 1832 - Dead Thread

[fferyllt]

Welcome to the Dead thread!

This is a spoiler-free zone for now.

[penguin_alien]

Ego, etc.

[fferyllt]

Welcome acidphoenix!

[acidphoenix]

zzz

[acidphoenix]

if other people solve here I'll help but otherwise I'm just gonna maybe pick at things

[penguin_alien]

...why is Brian voting the inactive? Is he scum? Do I have to be sad now?

[acidphoenix]

idk

could be but doubtful to me

[penguin_alien]

Oh. My. God. I'm a she. If this weren't a newbie game I would be using female pronouns for BuJaber and Derpy Hooves in this thread going forward because this is beyond annoying.

In terms of gameplay, relitigating my lynch is pretty meh. You know I flipped town, which means the case was not exactly airtight. Claiming it was solid when it resulted in a mislynch is a waste of time at best and super defensive at worst. Which is basically what BuJaber is doing. If he's town he should be looking at who jumped on without good reason and stop doubling down on the proven-erroneous read.

The acidphoenix NK is worth looking at too. NSG scumread, indicated willingness to vote Fungrus. The priority of those two and activity levels indicates that the former is likely more important than the latter. Why did someone who was almost silent eat the NK? There's been no subsequent push to look at the NSG read in light of acidphoenix's flip. If Fungrus is scum, killing acidphoenix does nothing for derailing his lynch. Although if Fungrus is scum, the team is probably prioritizing his partner's survival.

Scum are dodging either a tracker or JK, and they know which. If it's a tracker that doesn't much influence the NK choice unless they have a PR read, which I'm not seeing as likely from the acidphoenix ISO. If it's a JK, the JK is most likely aiming to act as a doc right now, which might stop them going after a vocal player (e.g. Derpy Hooves if he's town).

Living player list (from assuming they're town perspective):
BuJaber--should be pushable but a tough lynch, unlikely protected
animeisbae--lynchable
Katyusha--BP
Derpy Hooves--probably not lynchable, likely protected if there's a JK
Brian Skies--probably not lynchable, less likely to be protected
Fungrus--lynchable
northsidegal (SE)--not mislynch bait at all without acidphoenix's flip

If there's a tracker I count four better kills than acidphoenix. With a JK I'd say three, and it's reasonably unlikely that two of the three are scum. Add in that there's no reason to think that acidphoenix wasn't mislynchable in this game.

Pressure votes are still dumb, especially on Day Two. And posts 375-377 are why post count is a bad way to consider game contribution, BTW. There's no reason all three of those sentiments couldn't have been in one post.

[penguin_alien]

Bull-shit, bull-shit, bull-shit.

Right here:

If fung flips scum I'd say Brian is his partner. If Fung flips town I'd say its brian and either anime/nsg. Kat/DH are clearly town.

If anything this is crumbing a lock-result on Brian. He's lying his ass off and depending on who the real tracker is (since there's zero chance he'd fake a tracker claim in RB/JK/BP) he may get away with it for a day but his partner had better be setting up for a 3p LyLo, likely with Katyusha since they didn't bother taking out the one-shot of BP last night.

Also, no way his partner is Fungrus here. Goon-goon are equally valuable role-wise, and ensuring his own lynch is bad play if Fungrus is his partner. If scum were going to have one of them take a dive like this, they should have planned on it being Fungrus.

Brian shouldn't be his partner here, nor anime, since even if anime is scum with him, the real tracker will eventually CC and gg scum. Which leaves Derpy Hooves and northsidegal. I can live with either of those. Annoyance at Derpy Hooves makes me want it to be him, but the Occam's Razor answer is northsidegal, given the night kill, and her play is objectively scummier.

[penguin_alien]

Oh, and for the record, if this was a true PR claim, it's always worth the 1 for 1 trade of PR for scum. The following:

:puts on IC hat:

Maybe in a larger game where the result could be crumbed clearly, might not be 100% known scum due to other potential PRs, and you hope to get another result later you don't want to out a guilty track immediately, but here?

a) With two active scum, you're (good and) lucky to get a successful track in, given that whoever you tracked to the kill is presumably the less shady-looking scum.
b) Until that player is dead, odds are they'll keep submitting the kill, meaning that further results are going to be useless with two scum in play anyways.
c) Taking out 50% of the scum team with another known town (the BP) in play ensures no worse than 3p LyLo, which even here should give you two shots at lynching the second scum with a flipped partner for *actual* associatives.

:tosses IC hat back on rack:

Real question is, why would BuJaber choose to fakeclaim in this situation? It's bad strategy to try to save a Fungrus-partner, and he (BuJaber) was nowhere near being an inevitable lynch. Nor were potential partners northsidegal or Derpy Hooves. I suspect he panicked, but we'll see post-game.

[fferyllt]

Welcome to animaeisbae

[acidphoenix]

.-.

[acidphoenix]

so does that make it just jaber / nsg

[penguin_alien]

This night kill will likely be more telling than any choice on Night Three, as if scum opts to kill going into 3p LyLo it would be major WIFOM. And they may opt to muddy the waters after BuJaber's lynch and go for MyLo with a shot on the BP. I'm betting though that they NK Brian since he's the only one who's been putting actual thought into the game and isn't really lynchable. Which doesn't say much about a likely partner here.

He also is the only one who makes zero sense as a partner, since if the pressure on BuJaber had been scum theater, BuJaber wouldn't have cracked.

[fferyllt]

Welcome, Brian Skies!

[penguin_alien]

My money is on NSG with DH not thinking much here, but hell, I could be reading this all wrong and BuJaber was covering for Fungrus. It just doesn't feel likely since he was in a much better position than Fungrus.

[penguin_alien]

I'm enjoying that all of {northsidegal, Derpy Hooves, Katyusha} are saying that they have a static scum read on Fungrus. Even after mislynching once and falling for a fakeclaim, no interest in really reevaluating reads. I mean the following:

it's fungrus. like, i'm one hundred percent confident.

That kind of confidence is based on what from this game so far?

my mind is like 70% made up but im really annoyed at myself for playing like shit this game and i dont want to fuck up all 4 days of this game

like how do i know no one is appealing to my default state of mind

Not indicating a real interest in having that challenged.

Fung is just a scum read that hasn’t changed and he’s done literally nothing to help town.

...because you've done what to help town, remind me?

It all indicates no one thinking about the game state. Two, if not three, of the above are town, and they've all either participated in or condoned the mislynches thus far (Katyusha didn't actually place the hammer vote on animaeisbae but was planning to). None of them were the NK. They should be at least trying to look at the game with fresh eyes while they're guaranteed to have input from all living town.

Maybe Fungrus is the last scum, gg, and I've been wrong from the get-go. I can own that. But given how everything's gone here thus far, if I were still alive I'd be trying to do a hard reset.

[acidphoenix]

i honestly have no clue where reads on fungrus (as either alignment) are coming from from what i've read

[penguin_alien]

Since the IC is dead.. honest question to you all:

Oh hi

Why lynch known scum today? We know that only special role left is Kat so all I can do is kill one more person at night if I live. If you go after my partner today you'll know instantly whether you win or lose. Game ends sooner.

That NK either eliminates someone from the suspect pool or is a shot on the BP, which in and of itself indicates something about the remaining scum's take on the gamestate. More information is always better for town, even if it's hard to parse in the case of NK analysis.

Also you'd have one more day to gauge known scum's reaction to votes.

Your reactions are useless. You should probably just be keeping mum, but decent town aren't going to bother reading into what you say. It would be different if a cop had a guilty on you without your knowledge and could tease reactions out before you knew you were nailed, but listening to known scum is dumb.

The deadline is also far away so that gives time to switch over to me if needed. Is it because scum could pounce and vote in quick succession as soon as someone else gets a vote? I mean it's possible but scum aren't allowed to collude during the day so how would they guarantee they login one after the other? Seems like if they did they would expose themselves faster. And you could always have some sort of safety precaution where first voter cannot logout without unvoting first.

It is harder for scum to coordinate a quick hammer without day talk. They have to post in the thread without being obvious that it's a check-in and without spooking the town vote. At 3p LyLo scum can hammer at will if they get an opening. Still better to take the bird in the hand here and hope for more info overnight.

[penguin_alien]

Also, when I talk about more info from the NK, if scum actually shoot someone town gets two insights: a) that the shot slot was town, and b) that the scum wanted that slot dead over any others. It's that second piece that can get dicey to analyze, as the question is did they want it dead for being unlynchable in their opinion, for having a good read, or to frame that slot as having good reads? The first piece is always helpful for town.

No idea what scum will do here; willing to guess after seeing more posting.

[fferyllt]

Welcome, BuJaber!

[BuJaber]

Hi
I apologize penguin for the pronouns. You know I don't do it intentionally, but I am sorry.
You're absolutely right about your lynch. Of course it was a bullshit case. Not at first mind you; at first I probably would have suspected you as town. I absolutely have played with people who are very good at skating through as scum by more or less only asking questions that keep other people talking instead of them, while keeping their own post count up. But once you started responding to me my case was falling apart but they all just went with it. As for me defending it post-lynch: I have my reasons, which are probably obvious but I can't say without spoiling the fun.

Well played Brian. You're a beast. I meant it when I said I was 100% sure you were tracker that tracked me at night (perhaps it was ego, perhaps it was my limited perspective thinking I sound townie) So the trade was an easy decision. I figured Tracker already knows me they won't track me again. So I at least wanted to expose the tracker for my partner to kill. But had I felt you were just VT I probably would have played it differently.

[acidphoenix]

if you're playing because you think someone is the pr strongly you should claim the guilty on that person, generally

[acidphoenix]

if you're playing because you think someone is the pr strongly you should claim the guilty on that person, generally

it worked out fine because lol but

[BuJaber]

My partner isn't doing what I wanted for night kill.. we'll see how it goes.