Newbie 1942 - Dead Thread

[Carl Tuckerson]

say duck, do you know how to get into GTKAS? I tried joining a few days ago and it says my membership is 'pending'

[the worst]

aha! if you want to get into both GTKAS and the speakeasy (non-indexed super cool discussion forum), make sure you've picked Speakeasy Inhabitants rather than just GTKAS.
but: you'll needa track down a 'blue'. look for one of these mods and ask if they can approve your membership request

[Carl Tuckerson]

Thanks, I’ll look into it.



In hindsight, this game worked out much better for town than if we had been on the right track earlier, if that made sense.

[the worst]

Yeah for sure. Sometimes a rocky start can help things later.

[teacher]

insomnia claimed before emps, and the two claims are doctor and jailer. There is a nearly 90% chance that a counterclaim occurs; if the setup isn't exactly C2, a counterclaim exists somewhere. I could understand if a potential counterclaimant would stay quiet during d2, since the potential counterclaimant is always an investigative role and doesn't want to draw undue attention, but by now, with everyone checking in d3 and with the game moving toward a solution to solve it, there should have been a counterclaim. I do not think insomnia was in enough trouble to risk a nearly 90% chance of counterclaim that would certainly result in his being hanged.

It was only 50%

Scum knows the column (C) simply from knowing their roles.
Scum knows there is a protective if they submitted a kill.
Leaves C2 and C3.

Spoiler:

Claiming doc first takes the 50% shot, and outs the protective of it exists, on the hope that the real doc gets lynched first, the scum!doc gets lynched at mylo1, and their partner can survive mylo2

Also regarding your NK, it was necessary to keep FF as a suspect. If they kill emps, FF is clear and you, leaving a lynchpool of exactly me-insomnia for town to win the game, since you had written off Cyrus

[Skygazer]

theres one small caveat to scum digging themselves out of their hole

Spoiler:

emps is JKing insomnia

[Carl Tuckerson]

Cyrus must have just contracted post-partum depression after I died

[Carl Tuckerson]

theres one small caveat to scum digging themselves out of their hole

Spoiler:

emps is JKing insomnia

please no heroball please no heroball please no heroball

trust the plan (that you wrote)!

[Carl Tuckerson]

insomnia claimed before emps, and the two claims are doctor and jailer. There is a nearly 90% chance that a counterclaim occurs; if the setup isn't exactly C2, a counterclaim exists somewhere. I could understand if a potential counterclaimant would stay quiet during d2, since the potential counterclaimant is always an investigative role and doesn't want to draw undue attention, but by now, with everyone checking in d3 and with the game moving toward a solution to solve it, there should have been a counterclaim. I do not think insomnia was in enough trouble to risk a nearly 90% chance of counterclaim that would certainly result in his being hanged.

It was only 50%

Scum knows the column (C) simply from knowing their roles.
Scum knows there is a protective if they submitted a kill.
Leaves C2 and C3.

Spoiler:

Claiming doc first takes the 50% shot, and outs the protective of it exists, on the hope that the real doc gets lynched first, the scum!doc gets lynched at mylo1, and their partner can survive mylo2

Also regarding your NK, it was necessary to keep FF as a suspect. If they kill emps, FF is clear and you, leaving a lynchpool of exactly me-insomnia for town to win the game, since you had written off Cyrus

Duh you're right. Good call,

Walk me through why they know that killing emps clears FF--if emps dies we don't find out he jailed FF yeah?

[the worst]

Cyrus must have just contracted post-partum depression after I died

nah but it means he correctly stopped a kill by saving ff n1
I think ff is pretty obvtown personally and can't really see scum sending fishy over cc's slot to do the n1 kill

pretty sure ff is only softcleared but it's a hard softclear

[Carl Tuckerson]

I concur with the sentiment but I simply cannot call it a "hard softclear" lol. That's too egregious a contradiction in terms. :p

Strong softclear I agree. I guess I should have just been comfortable with the fact that the game didn't make sense if

spoiler

wasn't mafia so that means

spoiler

is mafia.

[the worst]

Yeah firm softclear is a totally fine choice of words
I think a clear like this one isn't one I'd reevaluate until v lategame and I think after teacher's dive on fishy it's probably fair to say there aren't.. really reasons to lynch him..

Basically you're on the money with #135. The solve makes sense.

[teacher]

Walk me through why they know that killing emps clears FF--if emps dies we don't find out he jailed FF yeah?

Look at emps positioning before the clarity wagon and even right during. I would have wagered ALL my poker money on him keeping fishy that night and would have outted that. If emps has died, I clear fish. Like emps said at the start of the day, his jk pick was obvious.

[teacher]

And emps is making the right play picking his one solid town and eliminating the rest of the pool. My only concern in doing so is the mercurial nature of that town.

[teacher]

Insomnia should concede.

[Skygazer]

yyyyyyup :c

[teacher]

Can you suggest they make the pagetop of 200 the lynch of insomnia?

[Skygazer]

something makes me think that'd be a tadddddd info spewy

[Carl Tuckerson]

What the fuck are they doing?

[teacher]

VOTE: Cyrus

fF is a true idiot if he can’t see the auto win and sell Cyrus on it. I don’t see why he’s fighting this. I get Cy, but not him. Emps has the patience of a saint.

[Carl Tuckerson]

These dudes are killing me. You jailed insomnia. There was no kill. The entire premise of this "auto-win" is that insomnia is mafia, because otherwise if you lynch town FF and insomnia is town emps just gets shot and they go to insomnia/Iconeum/cyrus LYLO. If your whole premise is "X is mafia and that's why no one will ever die forever" then fucking lynch X. Jesus fucking Christ.

[the worst]

I mean I don't disagree at all

[teacher]

But why not cover your bases? It is auto. See newb 1923 where RC explains the same thing where I was soloscum fakeclaiming doctor who was Jailed (by RAS, who knew the setup, but that’s an another story)

Yes, it is auto, but emps plan covers the bases of insomnia being town, and lynches the other two possibilities first before hitting the high probability.

I’ll agree that at this point, given Cyrus play today, emps should be questioning his two person lylo and willing to reevaluate, but his play is the mechanically correct one. I’ll also add, given Cyrus play today, I would not concede in insoms shoes.

[Carl Tuckerson]

I get that they might still think insomnia is town after this, but they can't write him off as mafia, and I don't see how they expect the two non-insomnia people not to lynch insomnia in 3p LYLO, after insomnia got jailed last night and no one died in a setup where a roleblocker must exist if insomnia isn't mafia and on a night where emps pretty openly shaded that he was jailing insomnia. If insomnia is getting lynched anyway then why would you not lynch him now when he's by far the most likely mafia after that jail result? There's no world where insomnia doesn't get lynched at some point, right?

[teacher]

Also, from emps POV, he’s got known town (me) suspecting FF and FF’s obvious and irrational desire not to be lynched today. He should cover.