Open 791 | Forest Fire | Farren's Grove

[Farren]

Would I try to pocket Isis with memes as scum? Maybe? Probably not, but maybe?

[Farren]

*happy dance*

[Farren]

Okay. Maybe this time, we'll spend some time going over things.

Isis just plummeted big-time in the town rankings after that flip.

[Farren]

Looking back at D1 vote tallies ...

"One off, one on" on a town miselim isn't exactly bulletproof, but it's a good place to start. Ydrasse was off the Gamma wagon, which would point towards someone on it. Dunnstral (un-cc'd firefighter) is out. That leaves Bell, tea leaves, GuiltyLion, Isis.

Tea leaves was the counterwagon by the end of things - and Ydrasse was on that wagon. So a small plus for tea leaves there.

At one point Ydrasse had the lead, with tea leaves in second place. Ydrasse then immediately puts tea leaves to tied with her, eight minutes after the tally's posted. That's 1176.
Isn't willing to call tea leaves scummy; just not as townie as others.

Dunnstral started the Gamma wagon. Then Bell jumped on - although indicating that Ydrasse would be an acceptable substitute. Still, that's a minus - maybe? Need to establish the context of Bell/Ydrasse interactions. Constantly holding someone at "kinda scummy" levels but not being willing to seriously push them is definitely a scumtell, especially when that someone flips scum.

[Farren]

Then tea leaves would rather go for Gamma over Ydrasse. There goes that small plus.

1213 looks bad for Bell.

1230 is an interesting point by Gamma that also speaks against Bell.

Note to self - the Q that Bell asked Gamma at the end of D1 - that he said was his "favorite question" - does he usually ask that in E-1 situations? Cause he hammered Ydrasse without asking it. CHECK ON THIS. DO NOT IGNORE IT.

[Farren]

Can't really glean much from GL shooting down Ydrasse/Bell as a team, I don't think? If he's scum, then obviously it's not Ydrasse/Bell.

Hammer is NAI, given deadline ...

And changing my mind about Bell's metadive. Don't think I'm going to be able to do much with that.

[Farren]

Based on my reads in 1323 - Ydrasse squarely in the middle. Based on that, clearly MT is her partner.

[Farren]

Bumping this so I don't lose track of it with all the Marathon PTs being released.

[Farren]

104 definitely seems Town given scum|Ydrasse. (GuilyLion)

[Farren]

GuiltyLion, even.

[Farren]

Dannflor

: has GuiltyLion been prodded? And if treestumps can be prodded, Gamma Emerald should be prodded as well.

[Dannflor]

GuiltyLion has been prodded. I won't be prodding tree stumps.

[Farren]

When I find myself start thinking "If you were scum, you could attack here, here, and here ..." I'm beginning to think that's a sign I'm barking up the wrong tree.

[Farren]

I assume that if you're not going to prod tree stumps, you also won't replace tree stumps should they be eliminated.

Ugh. Ugh. Ugh. Dunnstral, why.

And I can't even ask him about it because I don't really want the firefighter giving away too much of his knowledge about who he's doused. Let scum stew in the uncertainty.

[Farren]

So let's see. Hypothetically. I'm firefighter. Do I vote for someone that I've sprayed?

Let's say I sprayed GL. He gets eliminated.

If he's scum, great. We win, I look bad, oh well, still won.
Let's say he's not. He wasn't ignited, doesn't matter. And if scum is voting for him ... they're less likely to have doused him, which means if I did spray him it didn't matter? I refuse to believe scum isn't going to gleefully take the opportunity to get rid of GL here if given the chance - unless they've doused him. In that case, it's not really progressing the scum wincon.

And of course we have no way of knowing whether he is or is not doused.

Like, it could be a play for information? A long-reaching play?

[Farren]

At the next part of 2442 - I wish I were scum here. That part would be so fun to work with as scum.

[Farren]

That quote I just did of Isis:

If this were a regular game of Mafia, I would be locking my vote in on Isis for anything short of a 'hammer-or-no-elim' type situation. That, to me, would indicate that she's either a) scum, who would need to get to F3 to win, or b) so far lost in despair that I don't see it improving at all. I'd lean more toward a) unless there was additional evidence of b) - and b) is more NAI. It'd seem like a better gamble than GuiltyLion, for sure.

Problem is, in this game, there's another possibility: stump|Isis could be an F3 participant as well. That wouldn't fall quite into the b) category ... less intense, at any rate? Plus there's the whole "there might not even *be* an F3" bit given how the arsonist mechanic works. So at the least, it shows a continued lack of understanding the mechanics - which might normally be Town-indicative, except for the repeated times she's expressed unawareness of who she was voting for or where they were at in the tally, which means lack of mechanical awareness is NAI, so I can't do anything with it.

She does get a style point for calling it "F3", though. That's the terminology I prefer, honestly; I just tend to adapt to the terminology being used around me.

[Farren]

I was actually typing up a post of "vote Isis, yadda yadda," but when I was considering objections and typing them up to shoot them down prematurely, I realized one of them actually sounded plausible. So let's play this out.

[Farren]

There's a mechanical argument to be made that there won't be an F3 - or at least that there's a decent chance there won't be an F3. But that assumes Town incompetence, and I don't want to make that assumption here.

[Farren]

must ... resist ... urge ... to ... vote ... Isis ...

[Dannflor]

I'll release this PT only if you expressly wish it to be released.

[Farren]

It is OK to release this PT.